Rookie Rankings: A Resolution for the ROY Debate

After the Phoenix Mercury’s 100-82 victory over the Atlanta Dream on Saturday, Phoenix Stan declared Mercury forward DeWanna Bonner Rookie of the Year.

Before you dismiss Stan as a biased Mercury writer, the argument he lays out in favor of Bonner over Dream forward Angel McCoughtry is quite strong, especially the part about consistency. After all – and forgive me for being so semantic – but the award is for the Rookie of the Year, not Rookie of the Post-All-Star Break or Rookie of the Future. The year, as in this year.

For most of the season, I have argued something similar – that although McCoughtry strikes me as the more player with more star potential, Bonner is clearly the most productive rookie in the league, if for no other reason than her style of play fits perfectly with the Mercury’s style.

However, over the last month or so, that claim has been proven wrong – these are both very productive, very talented players, with bright futures, that are best compared as “different” rather than judging one as superior. And of course, the award is irrelevant to the young players themselves, as reported by Stan – all they care about is winning (which I suppose is a shame because if one of them didn’t care about winning it would be quite easy to choose between the two of them).

But even if they don’t care, I do. We (fans) do.

As such, I first want to modify the consistency argument that some people have made – statistically, McCoughtry has been right behind Bonner for most of the season. Bonner has maintained a pretty firm grasp of the #1 spot, but McCoughtry has been the clear #2 by any reasonable basketball standard for the majority of the season.

So given that, it probably should come as no surprise that the numbers reveal something different after McCoughtry’s consecutive Rookie of the Month awards: Bonner and McCoughtry are almost even now based on the framework of analysis I have used for rookies this season.

That pretty much negates the consistency argument – even if McCoughtry was not great during the first half of the season, the fact that she has drawn even with (or arguably surpassed) Bonner statistically means one of the following:

a) Bonner’s rate of production has declined, as McCoughtry’s minutes increased

b) McCoughtry has made up statistical ground so rapidly that she must be the superior player, or

c) Both.

With the consistency piece negated, it becomes much more difficult to determine who should win Rookie of the Year. WNBA.com makes an unconvincing argument for McCoughtry by citing one game, which is insufficient because the award is for performance for the duration of the season.

Most of the performance metrics – Efficiency, Tendex, and Model Estimated Value (I don’t have PER or WARP) – are too close to make a clear assessment. So it will probably come down to each individual voter selecting the person they just like better.

Nevertheless, I want to find an argument that goes beyond merely arbitrary. In doing so, I think there might be another variable that points to a resolution – since both of these players have been reserves for most of the season, they are also eligible for the Sixth Woman award.

As such, is it possible that one should win the Sixth Woman of the Year award and the other the Rookie of the Year award? I say yes.

The rookie ranking standard

In evaluating rookies this season, I’ve used the following standard for analysis based upon observation and the statistical work of others:

The best rookies can create their own scoring opportunities – and do so efficiently – while contributing to a team’s success.

As such, I’ve used a combination of three statistics – usage rate (the rate at which a player creates plays for themselves), Chaiken efficiency ratio (the ratio of scoring plays a player is individually responsible for vs. turnovers and missed shots), and Boxscores (a player’s individual to team wins).

As it has been for months now, Bonner and McCoughtry have been the only two rookies to rank in the top tier of the league in all three statistical categories. Just to establish the significance of that accomplishment, there are only 15 players – All-Stars and MVP candidates -- in the entire league who share that distinction. It makes it an impressive standard by which to judge rookies.

The numbers are as follows:

Bonner
Usage: 22.07
Chaiken Efficiency Ratio: 2.65
Boxscores: 2.79

McCoughtry
Usage: 26.77
Chaiken Efficiency Ratio: 2.07
Boxscores: 2.39

While Bonner is slightly more efficient and contributed slightly more to her team’s success, McCoughtry is more effective at creating plays for herself.

And the latter point about McCoughtry is what swings my opinion in favor of McCoughtry: she’s a playmaker, while Bonner is still primarily a player who is dependent on the players around her to set her up.

Although Bonner has a much higher offensive rebounding rate (20% to McCoughtry’s 7%) and free throw rate (44.9% to McCoughtry’s 30%), McCoughtry has a much higher assist rate (13.4% to Bonner’s 3%) and slightly higher 2 point percentage. McCoughtry is often heralded as the better all-around defender, but Bonner is an improving help defender and that’s extremely valuable in the Mercury’s defensive scheme.

Yes, Bonner’s playmaking ability has improved, but McCoughtry is clearly the better playmaker. Or to put it in Jeopardy terms, McCoughtry is probably the answer to the question, “Which rookie would you want to have the ball in her hands at the end of a game?” McCoughtry is that type of player that can create plays for herself and others when her team needs it.

McCoughtry has demonstrated the ability to take over games in addition to putting up statistics almost equivalent to those of Bonner.

Although the Dream have only gone 3-4 with McCoughtry replacing forward Chamique Holdsclaw in the lineup over the last 7 games, it’s worth nothing that 5 of those games were road games and the losses were to Los Angeles, Phoenix, Detroit, and Seattle – teams that were all hot when the Dream encountered them.

So when we consider which rookie is better, yes, it’s worth considering which rookie has demonstrated the ability to clearly dominate a game and carry her team to victory. It’s an intangible that we cannot measure statistically, but I think we have to agree that McCoughtry has more of “it” however you want to define that “It Factor”.

Conclusion: McCoughtry as ROY, Bonner as SWOY

But with these two players being the best two reserves by my rookie standard -- which is really just a playmaking ability standard – I think it’s fair to say that one of them is probably the Sixth Woman of the Year as well.

That is Bonner.

The reason is simple and less arbitrary than merely finding a way to reward Bonner for what she’s done. If we consider that the bulk of McCoughtry’s production this season has been as a starter, then it’s easy to claim that Bonner has been the better reserve. She has consistently brought more off the bench than any player in the league, while McCoughtry has emerged as clearly the most dominant rookie starter.

So yeah, ultimately that does look like a compromise, but I think it’s the reasonable way to go.

Here’s my ranking of the rest of the rookies, with statistical backing:

3. Shavonte Zellous

I really like Zellous’ game and over the course of the season her shot selection has improved and she looks like she’s playing much more under control as the Shock have settled into life after Bill. Statistically, she’s also the third best defender behind Bonner and McCoughtry. As has been the case all season, she still gets to the free throw line at a higher rate than anyone else in the league. If she can work on her playmaking ability in the offseason, she’ll be a dynamic second year player.

4. Anete Jekabsone-Zogota

The consistency argument in comparison to Zellous (and defensive ability) is what has Jekabsone in the 4th spot as opposed to #3. But in terms of offensive ability, she is probably one of the most well rounded and polished rookies of any. She doesn’t have the same type of game-changing ability that McCoughtry does, but on the other hand there isn’t much she cannot do.

5. Renee Montgomery

Montgomery is not the best rookie point guard in terms of making plays for others, but she is by far the most dynamic rookie point guard with her ball handling ability and ability to take opponents off the dribble, as evidenced by her top tier 2 point percentage.

Second Team/Honorable mention:

6. Briann January
(I’m partial to point guards, but she has demonstrated ability to lead her team as well as any other rookie)

7. Courtney Paris
(needs more post moves, but still one of the best rebounders in the league)

8. Quanitra Hollingsworth
(among the best rebounders in the league and working on scoring ability)

9. Shalee Lehning
(the only way you could argue against her being among the top rookies is if you are drinking a large glass of haterade. Even by the rather weak standard of EFF, available at WNBA.com, she’s #9. I could say more, but I think I’ve made the point by now).

10. Kristi Toliver
(if she played more…I would put her higher. But this is not a judgment of talent, but production)

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“You Have to Try, You Have to Care!”: The (Totally Subjective) Definition of a Playoff Team

There really is no way to predict who will end up making the playoffs, especially in the Eastern Conference.

However, the one thing that seems to be magnified as the post-season nears in a relatively small professional sports league with amazing parity is effort.

It seems sufficient to answer the question, “Who’s going to make the playoffs?” with the question, “Who wants it more?”

With each additional game played, the significance of the remaining games increases, particularly in the East. Meaning teams not only have to fight through the aches and pains collected during the season, but also the mental demands of the increasing pressure to win.

With the Eastern Conference playoff picture about as clear as the Swamp of Sadness, the playoffs will likely come down to the teams that are willing to fight through the looming threat of going home early.

Sadly, in watching the games last night you could see one team that has seemingly already lost its will to fight.

Watching the two late games last night – the Chicago Sky vs. the Washington Mystics and the Atlanta Dream vs. the Sacramento Monarchs – you could really start to see what separates playoff teams from those that will be adding lottery picks to their roster in 2010.

The Dream beat a Kara Lawson-less Monarchs team in Sacramento to win their second straight in the midst of a five game road trip. Rookie forward Angel McCoughtry strengthened her argument for Rookie of the Year with an impressive all-around game, recording 26 points, 10 assists, and 5 rebounds. Complementing McCoughtry in the post was Erika de Souza who finished with 27 points and 13 rebounds, helping the Dream dominate a traditionally strong Monarchs team inside.

The Dream did exactly what you want to see from a playoff team – they beat a limping team when they had to, even though they were in the middle of a road trip across the country. It makes you think they might be holding fast to the dream of their first playoff bid.

Then there’s the Chicago Sky.

Yes, the Sky beat the Mystics 92-86 to keep themselves in the playoff race.

But the score is actually deceiving – we 34.9 seconds left the Sky were actually down 85-84. The final score is more the result of an untimely turnover from Washington point guard Lindsey Harding and subsequent free throws.

Meaning the Sky were very close to losing this one.

That’s disturbing.

The Sky were essentially, though not mathematically, in a must-win situation at home on four days rest and center Sylvia Fowles returned to the lineup from injury. The Mystics were playing the second of a back-to-back, having beat the Seattle Storm at home the previous night. Oh yeah – they were playing without All-Star guard and standout defender Alana Beard.

No comment on rookie guard Kristi Toliver’s minutes.

It’s not uncommon for Golden State Warriors commentators to sum up the team’s 50th to 60th loss of a season by saying something along the lines of well, despite the narrow loss, it was a great moral victory. Since the NBA – nor any of the aforementioned imaginary basketball deities – has never recorded moral victories, this type of comment always works my nerves.

However, the Chicago Sky –the team that I will throw 100% of my fan fervor behind pending a clear strategy – have helped me to see the value of such a seemingly paradoxical claim by looking at its inverse:

Despite the narrow win, the Sky must be demoralized.

Ok, I know that immediately sounds ridiculous. But had you seen the game – or once you put the game in context – it all makes sense, though it still maintains a hint of absurdity.

If the Sky are not able to step up and put away a battle-weary team on their home floor, what reason do we have to believe that they can survive the fight to the playoffs?

With two of their remaining four games against the Detroit Shock, how will the Sky fend off a grittier, hungrier, and scrappier Shock team?

Looking at both their performance last night and their performance throughout the season, there is no reason to believe that the Sky have what it takes to win this race to the playoffs.

That’s a totally subjective opinion – obviously, I have no way of knowing what will transpire in the coming week. Maybe the Sky will suddenly wake up and play as though they know each other and might have been to a practice together once or twice.

In the meantime, I think they’ve given us ample reason to count them out.

And if that isn’t ample reason to make some changes in the off-season, I’m not sure what is.

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Toliver Helps Sky to Victory: "Sometimes as a Young Player All You Want is a Chance."

After hitting a free throw with 7:11 left in the fourth quarter to increase her career high scoring to 24, Chicago Sky rookie point guard Kristi Toliver stood at the free throw line with a huge grin.

It was hard to say what exactly she was grinning at because it looked like she was grinning in response to someone off camera.

So let me recklessly read into her grin a little: it had to be a relief to play so well after recording a DNP-CD in Los Angeles against the Sparks.

Toliver finished the game with a career-high 25 points, going 5-8 from the three point line, and played a key role in a huge 21-4 run that propelled the Sky to a 96-77 victory over the New York Liberty.

In a way, I suppose you could say it was a "boring" 25 points. As the commentators discussed entering the fourth quarter, a number of those shots were literally loose balls falling into her hands and her shooting almost indiscriminately over the outstretched arms of defenders.

But even in seeming like one of the most accidental 25 point performances the league has seen, her shot is just so beautiful. Her shot looks almost effortless and has an almost perfect arc before falling softly through the net. Dare I say she has one of the prettiest jump shots in the WNBA?

During the third quarter, as New York Liberty rookie post player Kia Vaughn was on a roll on her way to her own career-high 12 points, Mary Murphy said, "Sometimes as a young player all you want is a chance." And really, the statement seems to apply more directly Toliver than Vaughn, who has not had as many explosive performances during her rookie campaign.

It's hard not to wonder sometimes if Kristi Toliver has truly gotten a chance to have the rookie season people expected of her when she was drafted #3 in the 2009 WNBA draft. Of course there might be reasons for that which are beyond the reach of us outside observers.

But the strange thing is that aside from a turnover problem that's no longer any worse than her rookie point guard counterparts who are receiving a lot more playing time, Toliver has performed well in spurts when she enters the game. In fact, she has arguably outperformed teammates who take her time.

If the Sky had firmly secured a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference or at the very least shown consistent play this season, perhaps this would be a non-issue. However, as things stand now, it's difficult to make sense of the situation in Chicago.

Talent-wise, there's no reason Chicago should not be a playoff team. The fact that they're not should raise questions. If everyone who watches the team is perpetually wondering what the *bleep* are they doing?, then perhaps there's reason to believe things aren't quite right.

I would have remained silent on the Sky because...well...they defy explanation moreso than any team I've watched this season. It's not like the Sacramento Monarchs who are aging and injured or the Liberty who seem to be a poorly constructed and managed team. This team has too much talent to not be in a better position.

And Candace Dupree's comments to the media the other day don't exactly help assuage doubts

"I just feel like people have no motivation, Dupree said. "This is the first time in franchise history we could potentially make the playoffs and I don't feel like everybody plays like that every night. We've got to pick it up."

Doesn't that sound like a red flag that something really is not quite right with this team?

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What Might Briann January’s Future as a “Future Premiere Point Guard” Look Like?

With 2:18 left in the third quarter and her team down 14 points against the Seattle Storm, a light seemed to go on for Fever rookie point guard Briann January.

January brought the ball up court, shifted her weight left just enough to freeze All-Star guard Sue Bird who was defending her, then made a swift crossover dribble and took the ball hard to the basket to draw the foul and hit two free throws.

However, it wasn’t just one play that stood out on Saturday.

January took Bird to the basket repeatedly – she got to the free throw line off a drive again with 6.6 seconds left in the quarter -- and even though she didn’t make every shot, it was her confidence in a game that was still within reach that was impressive.

Although the Fever ended up losing Saturday's game 74-60, January demonstrated a beautiful mix of athleticism, determination, and skill that gave the fans that were still paying attention a glimpse into a bright future. Most of all, demonstrating such confidence against Bird – who January idolized as a young player – seems to just add something special to the moment. It’s not that Bird is a standout defender – it’s that January approached Bird with such fearlessness.

Despite struggling with her jump shot for much of the season – she went 1-8 against the Storm – January is having an impressive season as a rookie point guard. She’s an adept ball handler who can not only get herself to the basket, but also knows when to pick and choose her spots.

Although her passes sometimes go errant when she gets over-excited, she has also shown the ability to make pinpoint entry passes to the post or perfectly float passes over the outstretched arms of defenders to a moving teammate, putting them in scoring position on the run.

And of course, the two time Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year is no slouch on defense. Her quickness and strength allow her to stay with and challenge even the likes of Bird.

The combination of skills that January displayed in Saturday’s game and the previous Saturday in their comeback win against Detroit is what makes it so tempting to look past the present and into January’s seemingly bright future. The point was underscored by Fever coach Lin Dunn’s comments after January’s career-best performance against Detroit.

“You’re starting to see January develop more and more into what I call a premier point guard in this league. Her strength combined with her quickness, her speed and her shooting ability – I just think that she’s got a lot of upside as one of the top guards of the future of this league.”

Dunn’s comment leads me to wonder about what type of point guard January might become in connection with how we might describe point guards: what type of point guard is January likely to become? And how does she compare to the league’s current premiere point guards?

January seems to exude star potential, both because of her skills and the leadership she exhibits when on the court.

It was somewhat ironic to see January – a 31.8% shooter in her young career – standing up on the sidelines with her arms crossed like a coach yelling, “Shoot it! Shoot it!” as veteran Ebony Hoffman passed up a shot opportunity that came within the flow of the offense.

Although the frustrated eye roll at the dead ball is probably not the most effective way to build relationships, she seems to have the quality of a natural leader, even as a backup point guard. On a successful team full of veterans, she’s not afraid to hold her own and bark commands, even when she’s not on the court running their offense.

And in having such an eye for the game and implicitly demanding so much of her teammates and visibly bothered by every single mistake she makes – but not afraid to
solicit feedback from others – it’s hard not to think that she’s destined to improve.

When you combine her approach to the game and disposition toward her teammates with her skill set, it seems like the sky is the limit for January.

But you have to wonder: what might that potential look like?

Something I found interesting as I was doing point guard rankings last week is that if you were to omit scoring efficiency – shooting percentages, the ratio of possessions she scores on vs. possessions that she wastes – January’s statistical profile as a point guard is remarkably similar to Lindsey Harding.

Based on the point guard statistics, the only major difference between Harding and January are scoring efficiency numbers. And given Harding’s emergence this season after struggling her first few years, it’s not hard to imagine January having an impact on the court similar to Harding as she becomes a better scorer.

Harding had the better rookie season, but a large part of that was that she started and got big minutes on a non-playoff team. What Harding might have on January in terms of physical gifts – Harding is undoubtedly among the fastest guards with the ball in the league -- January has on Harding in terms of feel for the game and defense.

And I would argue that January is probably the better passer in terms of mechanics and court vision. That’s high praise and a lofty comparison for January given Harding’s all-star caliber year…but I really think she has that kind of potential.

When you start to see the ability to do things for her team at crucial moments on multiple occasions – even if they lose a game on the road in one of the toughest arenas in the league against the second-best team in the Western Conference --- it’s fair to start projecting her as something more special than what meets the eye.

If she does end up developing into a premiere point guard, she might end up in a class all her own. She just stands out as a special individual.

A superstar in the making.

Tony J. Antonucci, January’s elementary school counselor, wrote recently in the Spokane Spokesman-Review that January is “today’s real true all-American superstar athlete” who has been surrounded by a large support network on her ascent to the WNBA. And a portion of that network she’s spent a lifetime building was present not too far from the Fever bench at Key Arena.

As I was leaving Key Arena, January was coming through the tunnel to meet a group of 20-30 people that waited after the game to greet her. As I was walking toward her, she was surrounded by a bunch of credentialed individuals giving her directives or advice of some sort. I almost got out my voice recorder to go over and ask the player I’ve been following for about a week a few questions that would probably only result in answers similar to those in print elsewhere.

Just as I got close, she turned and flashed that “warm beautiful smile” that Antonucci described, wiping away any trace of having suffered a bad road loss, and walked out of the tunnel, greeted by a loud cheer from the people that eagerly awaited to see her.

And at that moment, she seemed to be more than Briann January the future premiere point guard, but Briann January the recent college graduate who was returning home from her first post-baccalaureate job to visit her family and looking for a good homecooked meal from mom.

Indeed, a special set of attributes for a star athlete in today's world of professional sports.

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Rookie Rankings: Can Anyone Dream of Catching DeWanna Bonner?

I started to write a rookie rankings post and ended up writing a long post about my thoughts on Atlanta Dream point guard Shalee Lehning.

To summarize the previous post, I found it curious that she was not listed in the latest rookie rankings on WNBA.com at all given that she’s a starter on a playoff caliber team that recently won four games in a row.

Tough crowd, I guess.

However, I have a hard time not putting her among the top ten rookies.

Washington forward Marissa Coleman has not played particularly well since returning from injury.

Chicago Sky guard Kristi Toliver is glued to the bench.

And it’s hard to establish that a player like Connecticut Sun center Chante Black is actually having a bigger impact on her team than Lehning (Black was once a starter for the Sun, but no longer with the return of center Sandrine Gruda).

If you judge rookies on…

a) what they do well,
b) their ability to make things happen when they are on the court, and
c) their ability to contribute to their team’s success in their first season.

…then how can a player starting at point guard be left out?

So as you may have guessed, Lehning is among my top ten rookies, using the same evaluation framework I used for my past rookie rankings. Of course, it's a guide to identify players, not a rigid determinant of who's best.

And you are also safe in assuming that DeWanna Bonner still leads my rookie rankings.

So where does everyone else fall?

1. DeWanna Bonner: Duh. Shouldn’t take much explanation.

It's basically more of the same – there are currently 14 players in the league who are ranked among the top 50 in Boxscores (a player’s individual contribution to team success), usage rate (how well a player is able to create scoring opportunities while on the floor), and scoring efficiency ratio (the ratio of a player’s scoring plays to all non-scoring plays as defined by turnovers and missed shots).

The only other people in that company are MVP candidates and All-Stars…and…

2. Angel McCoughtry: the Rookie of the Month for July is still the most talented rookie of this class, although Bonner’s situation has allowed her to outperform McCoughtry.

Like Bonner, McCoughtry has demonstrated the ability to make things happen with the ball in her hands…and on the defensive end as well. She might become one of the best all-around players in the WNBA as her game matures. You can’t help but see the ability when you watch her game – she can get shots off the dribble, drive to the basket, and draw contact. She can pass the ball and is going to become a very good on ball defender.

Her one glaring weakness is rebounding and it will be interesting to see if she improves on that over the course of her career.

3. Renee Montgomery: As mentioned in the previous post in comparison to Shalee Lehning, Montgomery is not quite the distributor many people want to see from a point guard, but she is a very efficient scorer.

In what could have been a tumultuous season with the coach resigning and forward Seimone Augustus going down to injury early, Montgomery has managed to contribute to the team’s success in key moments. She is about average in terms of the metrics used above to judge Bonner and McCoughtry, but is among the top guards in the league in terms of 2 point percentage.

And her ball handling ability, court sense, and ability to get to the basket for easy scoring opportunities make her easily one of the most impressive rookies of this season. In addition, she is a very solid defender, using her athleticism well to guard players on the ball.

4. Shavonte Zellous: It’s a tough call between Montgomery and Zellous, but I went with Montgomery because she is starting on a team that has been in the thick of the playoff hunt this season at one of the toughest positions in sports. But by the same standard as Bonner and McCoughtry above, Zellous is the next most impressive rookie.

While her team has not performed quite as well, making it difficult to argue she’s contributing as much to team success, she is still among the best in the league at getting herself to the free throw line, creating scoring opportunities for herself, and doing it with high efficiency relative to the league.

As an undersized guard, it would help her to distribute the ball a little more effectively (her assist rate is in the bottom 50 of the league) and shoot a better 2 point percentage (currently 38.84%), but she has otherwise been a very impressive performer this year.

But most importantly, Zellous is the best perimeter defender of anyone of the rookie group. She uses her quickness to create problems for opponents and does a pretty good job of help defense.

5. Courtney Paris: With more playing time, Paris has demonstrated that she can contribute quite a bit to a WNBA roster. She is the second most efficient scorer in the league behind Storm forward Lauren Jackson and has consistently had among the league’s best rebounding rates.

As she continues to adjust to the WNBA game – particularly developing her post moves against WNBA defenders – I would expect her to be even more effective.

6. Anete Jekabsone-Zogota: I have not seen her play a whole lot and she only started playing well recently, but lately, she is easily among the best rookies of this bunch. In her case, it’s not that she does one particular thing well but that she does a little bit of everything. She is already becoming an outstanding all-around player for the Connecticut Sun.

The “lately” qualifier makes it somewhat difficult for me to rank her…but if she can keep this up for the remainder of the season, she’ll end up vaulting ahead at least three of the rookies ahead of her who have been rather inconsistent themselves.

7. Briann January: I happen to like her game, think she has great court vision, and she looks extremely comfortable on the court. The only thing holding January back is that she is not a very efficient scorer right now. However, as a point guard, she’s contributing quite a bit to the Indiana Fever backing up Tully Bevilaqua and that should count for something. It’s also worth noting that she is a solid perimeter defender on a team that relies heavily on defense. The fact that her defense is notable makes her an even stronger player.

8. Megan Frazee: Frazee, very similar to Sacramento Monarchs forward Crystal Kelly last year, is just very often in the right position at the right time to make plays, both on offense and defense. It makes her a valuable asset to a very good San Antonio Silver Stars team.

She’s decisive when she gets the ball and shoots with range. Storm coach Brian Agler once noted that she’s more of a perimeter player right now than an interior player, but when the Storm attempted to put forward Katie Geralds on her on August 1st in Key Arena, she went right to the post and worked Geralds inside. She’s emerging as a solid rotation forward for a team with an embarrassment of riches at the position.

9. Shalee Lehning: Extended thoughts on Lehning are posted here.

And as I stated in that previous post about Lehning, I’m not saying she’s the top rookie or even the best at her position, but you’d have a really hard time naming a rookie that has actually consistently performed better than her this season...because there are not that many rookies even starting for their teams.

10. Quanitra Hollingsworth: If I continue to base my evaluations on the rookie evaluation framework I’ve used above, Hollingsworth is the next best rookie. And it’s close between her, Chante Black, and Marissa Coleman. So what is the deciding factor?

Hollingsworth is among the best offensive rebounders in the league in terms of the percentage of rebounds she gets while she’s on the floor. Offensive rebounding is an extremely valuable asset and the demonstrated ability to do that means she is able to extend possessions for the links and put herself in position for easy baskets.

That ability as well as an average 2 point percentage (44.59%) make Hollingsworth my choice for #10 over some other very worthy players. By the way, another player who flew under the radar last year as a limited offensive rebounder but ended up emerging in her second season: Crystal Langhorne.

Transition Points:

For more about how I went about doing these rankings, please see the Rookie Ranking Framework here.

Kristi Toliver is in the unfortunate situation where she has had neither consistent playing time nor a consistent role on the team.

In terms of performance, she has not had a very good rookie campaign. Yet although I've been quite lukewarm on her for most of the season, she has demonstrated the talent to be an effective player. Hopefully she'll eventually get that opportunity that she's waiting to seize.

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Revisiting Rookie Point Guards: How Does Atlanta’s Shalee Lehning Compare to Her First Round Counterparts?

If you were to select a WNBA All-Rookie First and Second team, would Atlanta Dream point guard Shalee Lehning be on it?

And if not, why not?

What makes the question interesting to me is that for some reason, people tend to focus on every single one of Lehning’s deficiencies – athleticism, scoring ability, defense, not a fast break player – rather than the one thing she has clearly established the ability to do well: running a team.

She had her detractors when she came out of college.

She was dismissed as irrelevant after the WNBA draft given the 11 player rosters this year.

She was dismissed after making the Atlanta Dream over incumbent point guard Ivory Latta.

I ignored her when I wrote about the WNBA's talented group of rookie point guards earlier this year.

She was dismissed as nothing more than a “ra-ra” player after becoming an important part of the Dream’s rotation.

And now she’s still dismissed after transitioning into a more substantive full-time starter on a potential playoff team. She is not even included among WNBA.com’s top 10 rookies despite starting 8 games for her team, tied for the most of any rookie.

During the Dream’s four game winning streak from July 22- August 1st, Lehning had 17 assists and 2 turnovers.

It’s not that she was playing All-Star caliber basketball, but she does what her team needs – she brings the ball up the court and initiates an offense that includes two All-Star post players in center Sancho Lyttle and forward Erika de Souza and two volume shooters in forward Chamique Holdsclaw and guard Iziane Castro-Marquez. So if she’s playing with four players who are better scorers than her by almost any reasonable standard, it’s actually a good decision to just get the ball up the court and set them up for scoring opportunities.

Lehning has exhibited the ability to perform the duties of a good point guard. And if she is able to exhibit that ability as a rookie, she deserves a bit more credit than she’s getting.

Yet you can still find people who will dismiss her in one of two ways:

1) All she does is bring the ball up the court and pass it (which I find to be a baffling critique); or
2) If the Dream had better point guards, then she wouldn’t even be on a WNBA roster.

Somehow, an assessment of what she does well is disregarded in favor of a general assessment of her ability that is based upon a counter-factual argument.

But why is that occurring?

In my opinion, the point guard position in basketball is second only to the quarterback position in football as the toughest position for a rookie to learn in sports…and Lehning has done an admirable job not only managing that learning curve, but doing it well enough to earn a starting spot over veteran competition on a playoff team.

To be clear, I’m not nominating Lehning for Rookie of the Year. I’m not even suggesting that she’s the ideal point guard for the Atlanta Dream. Nor am I suggesting that she should be considered the best rookie point guard (I maintain that the best rookie point guard this season is Minnesota Lynx point guard Renee Montgomery).

What I’m suggesting is that if you judge Lehning on what she’s done for the Dream overall rather than harping on what she has not done, she has actually demonstrated that she is a solid point guard.

So how would I rank her relative to the rest of the rookie point guards…or the rookie class more generally?

What does Lehning do so well?

Put simply, Lehning makes outstanding decisions with the ball given her limitations and rarely makes bad mistakes.

It’s not a terrible starting point for a rookie.

And I'm not just going to make a simplistic assist to turnover ratio argument. I'm talking more about how well Lehning plays the position.

As of yesterday, she leads the league in assist ratio – the percentage of plays she makes that end in an assist -- at 49.06%. To put that in perspective, the player in second is Sacramento Monarchs’ point guard Ticha Penicheiro. That also reveals a quirk with this particular number – if you don’t shoot much and pass a lot, then of course your assist ratio would be high. Nevertheless, the fact that half the plays she makes end in an assist is impressive as a rookie.

Here’s a brief comparison to the other three rookie point guards: Montgomery, Indiana Fever point guard Briann January, and Chicago Sky point guard Kristi Toliver.

Lehning: 49.06%
Toliver: 25.97%
January: 24.5%
Montgomery: 18.22%

Lehning also leads rookies in John Hollinger’s pure point rating, a metric that assesses a point guards’ ability to create scoring opportunities for others per minute on the floor. As a reference point, Los Angeles Sparks point guard Kristi Harrower has maintained the top pure point rating for most of the season and currently has a rating of 5.78. Here are the rookies:

Lehning: 1.84
January: .18
Toliver: -2.02
Montgomery: -3.125

Whether looking at these numbers or watching them play, it is fair to say that Shalee Lehning is the more effective distributor of any of the rookie point guards who have played a full season.

She’s not as flashy as January or Montgomery as a ball handler and creator, but she is mechanically sound and does the simple things extremely well, such as making entry passes to All-Stars or getting the ball to the open shooter at the right moment.

At this point it would be perfectly reasonable to comment that these numbers seem to be the opposite about common sense assessments of who the best point guards are – I have just provided two metrics in which Shalee Lehning and Kristi Harrower are the leaders!

What am I thinking?!?

What both of these metrics do is establish a point guard’s ability to make decisions about distributing the ball to teammates and running the offense. Relative to the rest of the WNBA, Lehning is making very good decisions with the ball and is very effective at setting up her teammates for scoring opportunities.

However, as I have explained in past point guard rankings previously and in yesterday’s post about San Antonio Silver Stars guard Becky Hammon, there are many ways to perform the duties of point guard – ability to distribute the ball is only one means by which to do so.

Scoring ability counts and that’s obviously what people hold against Lehning.

Lehning is not a scorer. And yes, that does make her an incomplete player despite the fact that she’s a very effective distributor.

And it should be extremely clear that by now that Montgomery is the best scorer of the rookie point guard crew.

Montgomery’s athleticism, outstanding ball handling ability, and ability to finish at the rim make her a very difficult player to stop. She first showed off her ability to score in traffic off the drive in an overtime win against the Washington Mystics on July 7th and pretty much did the same thing in a home loss against the Silver Stars on Sunday night.

While Kristi Toliver is clearly the better shooter (when she plays), Montgomery right now is the best overall scorer of any rookie point guard. She is also second among rookies in true shooting % and scoring efficiency ratio (the ratio of scoring plays to non-scoring plays as defined by missed shots and turnovers).

However, one way to assess overall scoring ability is to look at 2 point percentage, which can be something of a proxy for how well a player is able to get themselves easy shots and has been described as a very important WNBA statistic:

Montgomery: 52.43%
Lehning: 48.57%
Toliver: 44.23%
January: 38.88%

In fact, Montgomery is one of four guards in the top 15 in the league in 2 point percentage, right behind Becky Hammon (52.6%). The fact that Montgomery’s assist ratio is so low (also close to Hammon’s 19.2%) is offset by her scoring efficiency and ability to create easy shots for her team.

Will Montgomery need to get better as a distributor in order to be effective as a team leader? Of course.

But the split among this year’s crop of point guards – Lehning and January as distributors, Montgomery and Toliver as scorers – serves only to illustrate just how difficult it is to play point guard as a rookie. And that's not to mention the fundamental communication and leadership skills that it takes to run a team.

Given all those factors, Lehning probably deserves credit as the best distributor of the bunch right now.

Establishing reasonable expectations for a rookie point guard

A post on the Hoopinion blog yesterday further reinforces the point about the difficulty of making the transition from college to the professional ranks as a point guard.

It boils down to a very simple claim, backed by a look at rookie combo/point guard drafted outside the NBA draft lottery from 2003-2008 since the changing of enforcement of hand-check rules:

Given the difficulty of learning the point guard position, first year performance of rookie point guards drafted beyond the lottery will not clearly establish the path of his career.

How might we apply the same thinking to Shalee Lehning?

By focusing on what she does well in terms of what we know about the WNBA game – she creates assists, she minimizes turnovers, and she shoots a relatively high 2 point percentage by WNBA standards.

Not only are these indicators that Lehning is an effective point guard right now, but also that she probably is on her way to a solid career, if only as a backup.

With work in the off-season and a year of experience under her belt, she very well could become a better scorer.

But as for her standing as a rookie right now and judging her on her performance rather than arbitrary standards for imaginary point guards, we can say that she is an effective starter on a playoff team.

If that does not merit consideration among the top rookies, I’m not sure what does.

Transition Points:

Click here to see my latest rookie rankings....just in case you want to figure out where I plugged Lehning in after my extended analysis of her...


The obvious comparison to Lehning as a rookie point guard is New York point guard Leilani Mitchell...and clearly Mitchell is not having a particularly strong sophomore campaign. But somewhat similar to Lehning, she is most effective as a distributor when her team is effective as a unit. And thus far this season, it’s safe to say that the entire Liberty team has underachieved, if not played worse than they did last year. Otherwise, Pat Coyle would likely still have a job.


In response to my last point guard rankings, Bob Corwin of Full Court Press got in touch with me and we have had an ongoing conversation about point guards and how people around the league think about some of the players I ranked.

At some point during this conversation, he asked me why I was so interested in evaluating point guards. And I suppose I didn’t have a good answer.

It started last season by noticing people’s comments about the effectiveness of Seattle Storm point guard Sue Bird’s during an early season shooting slump. But maybe what precipitated that was that I was something of a defensive combo guard in high school and Isaiah Thomas was one of the first players that ever caught my eye in the NBA.

However, Lehning’s rookie year performance probably best embodies why I am interested in creating a framework for evaluating what it is point guards bring to a team. People make very arbitrary assessments of point guards based upon normative assumptions about what constitutes a "good point guard" that actually reflect people's thoughts about what makes a "superstar point guard".

For example, in the NBA, the San Antonio Spurs have won championships with both Avery Johnson and Tony Parker, two very different point guards. Last year's NBA finals featured a matchup between Derek Fisher and Tony Farmar vs. Jameer Nelson (all-star) and Rafer Alston (former And 1 player). The previous finals winner was led by second-year point guard Rajon Rondo, who still has no jump shot to speak of.

All of those players were vital to their team's success, but very differently.

There are many ways to play the position and it depends more on the situation than any rigid set of qualities.

However, Corwin also made the point that while there have been a few great point guards in the WNBA, the point guard position has never had a great player...and part of my struggle is to detach myself from NBA point guard standards and think more deeply about the WNBA, which does not have many dominant point guards in its short history...interesting point I'm still chewing on...and the reason why further point guard rankings are on hold.

Sacramento Monarchs' guard Ticha Penicheiro relayed a story about an interaction with coach John Whisenant that I found interesting regarding point guard play:

On the amount of trust Head Coach John Whisenant puts in her: “He’s always saying he wants me to be Steve Nash or Chris Paul and just go in the paint and make something happen so we don’t call many plays sometimes. He just pretty much wants me to go out there and get in the paint and either shoot or give the ball to one of our post players or our shooters. He is always encouraging me to do that. He says ‘Be Steve Nash out there, be Steve Nash!’”

Obviously, Lehning is no Steve Nash...which is yet another point of critique...but uh...how many point guards have won two NBA MVPs anyway?

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Storm-Stars Preview: A Battle of Supporting Casts

In the Seattle Storm’s 74-71 loss to the San Antonio Silver Stars on Tuesday night, the Silver Stars came back from down 10 points at the beginning of the fourth to win the game on a last second three pointer.

All-Star guard Becky Hammon had an all-star caliber game with 24 points and all-star forward Sophia Young made an all-star caliber three point shot to win the game at the buzzer.

However, what really made the difference in that game was the supporting cast for the Silver Stars and in particular, the play of Megan Frazee.

Although Young made headlines for her buzzer beating three point shot, she had a difficult game going 5-17 from the field and 2-11 inside the three-point line. The Storm’s taller defenders in Lauren Jackson and Camille Little made it extremely difficult for Young to score inside, at times not even drawing rim on shots around the basket.

For a team whose success last season was predicated on strong post play in addition to Hammon’s perimeter play, supported in particular by center Ann Wauters who has yet to return this season, Young’s struggles necessitated someone to step up and bring a post presence.

San Antonio coach Dan Hughes called upon Frazee and she did not disappoint.

Frazee was extremely efficient from the field, going 7-10, including a three pointer in the second quarter. She fought for a number of difficult rebounds with Storm post players finishing with 7 overall, including two offensive rebounds. She didn’t even miss a shot until late in the fourth quarter.

On both offense and defense, Frazee was often in the right position, even if she didn’t make the spectacular play. And it seemed like just when the Storm started to get momentum, Frazee was there to make a play that swung the momentum in the opposite direction.

For a rookie – who wasn’t even mentioned in my last rookie rankings, but will have my attention in the future – Frazee was impressive.

The Storm’s dynamic All-Star duo of Sue Bird and Lauren Jackson had solid games but got considerably less production from their bench.

So heading into tonight’s game, what are some of the key things to watch for?

Frazee is obvious after her previous performance, but their previous match up also illuminated some other things to watch for.

San Antonio: Sophia Young’s jump shot

Young was 2-11 from two point range in the previous game and although a lot of those shots were contested, she also missed a few jumpers that she could easily have made.

In the past, Young has been most successful when she’s been able to put pressure on her defender by scoring off drives and from the perimeter. If she had gotten that game going against the Storm, the game might have had a much different outcome.

San Antonio: Ball movement

When San Antonio keeps the ball moving they are extremely successful. And a lot of that is due to the passing of their post players.

And it just so happens that those defensive rotations are something Seattle has struggled with throughout the season.

What makes the Silver Stars so difficult to defend is that if you go zone to stop stymie their post play, they pass the ball so well to their shooters that they’re able to punish you from the perimeter. If you go woman-to-woman defense, they move the ball and force the defense to rotate until something opens up.

The answer is to have great on ball defenders and unfortunately the Storm struggled to guard the Silver Stars’ shooters and gave up 14 offensive rebounds, which led to 13 second chance points.

Seattle: Tanisha Wright driving

A major reason for the Storm’s 10 point lead at the beginning of the 4th quarter was Tanisha Wright’s ability to put pressure on the defense by driving to the basket and either scoring or passing was essential.

Wright did not end with a bad game – she just didn’t have a very consistent game. Outside of the third quarter, she was not a big factor.

The Silver Stars came out in the 4th quarter in a zone which stopped the penetration and led to the Storm looking a lot more stagnant. Meanwhile, the Silver Stars got hot on offense and erased the big lead, with the support of their crowd of course.

Unfortunately for the Storm, Wright was essentially a non-factor for much of the game and that really hurts the Storm because Wright’s aggressive penetration has been a key factor in the Storm’s victories this season. Whether it means drawing up more plays for Wright to make things happen consistently to put the pressure on or moving her around to get more favorable matchups is hard to say. But when she is on consistently, the Storm are a very difficult team to beat.

Seattle: Bench play

While the Silver Stars’ bench, led by Frazee, had a very productive game contributing 22 points, the Storm only got 5 points from their bench.

When Young struggled for the Stars, someone from their bench stepped up. When Sue Bird, Tanisha Wright, Camille Little, or Swin Cash were absent for stretches, the Storm simply didn’t get support from their bench.

While it’s great that the Storm got double digits from each of their starters, they also need production from their bench in order to keep their opponent on their heels.

Who will step up tonight?


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WNBA Midseason Awards & Review: Liberty Struggling…and Anosike for MVP?

Late in the fourth quarter of the New York Liberty’s loss to the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday, I heard a little song on the web cast that I assume was also played in the arena.

The line that grabbed my attention was one that seemed to perfectly capture why I liked the Liberty so much last year.

Our team is built to win. Everybody pitches in. The Liberty – United We Play.

If you read this blog last year, you may remember that the Liberty were an early favorite of mine. Leilani Mitchell’s amazingly efficient point guard play caught my eye, I vaguely recalled Janel McCarville from her NCAA tournament run with Lindsay Whalen at the University of Minnesota, and they appeared to be a well-rounded team. But most of all, I liked the fact that they seemed to play so well as a unit. An excerpt from something I wrote last year:

It’s the intangibles, the little things that won’t show up in the box score and are difficult to describe. They’re tough and they play with heart. Their seemingly endless rotation allows them to play with great energy (usually). Of all the teams in the WNBA, they seem to have the strongest collective personality.

But what I like most about them is that they seem to have a nothing-to-lose swagger. Not much was expected of them at the beginning of the season – while they were expected to make the playoffs, nobody really expected them to make much noise in the playoffs. So in a way, they are the WNBA’s consummate underdog.

Watching them on Sunday, I couldn’t believe that I was even watching essentially the same team.

It’s not that they played terribly on Sunday…they just didn’t play particularly well. And to stick with the theme, it didn’t really look like they’re playing very united this year.

So what’s wrong?

I compared their Four Factors numbers for this year and last year. Contrary to what I might have thought, their assisted field goal percentage is not that much different than what they ended with and they have about the same relative position (7th) as they did last year.

However, the one number that really stood out was their offensive rebounding percentage. It is way down from last year. But I’ll spare you the esoteric numbers and just go with what’s listed at WNBA.com – the Liberty are currently last in the WNBA in rebounding differential with a differential of -5.81 per game. At the end of last year, they were at -2.1, which is not much better, but wasn’t exactly league worst.

The other number that stood out was free throw rate, which is the rate at which they get to the free throw line. This number is partially an estimate of a team’s aggressiveness as the theory goes that getting to the foul line often probably means that you’re putting enough pressure on the defense to draw fouls.

Although the Liberty are shooting very well from the free throw line at 81%, their free throw rate is second to last in the league (the LA Sparks are the worst). That’s down from last year when they were just below average.

Even more interesting is that most of their opponents’ numbers are about the same or slightly worse, meaning that the problem seems to be that their performance has dropped off rather than the opponents’ play improving. And the numbers that have fallen – offensive rebounding and free throw rate – seem indicative of a lack of energy and aggressiveness rather than some sort of slump.

So the question for the Liberty in the second half is simple: can they find that energy that made them successful last season?

If they can, there is still time for them to leap frog erratic Atlanta Dream and Chicago Sky teams as the Liberty are only 1 game out. But moreso than any other team, it seems like the Liberty will require a shift in mindset rather than a performance upgrade to make a playoff run.

What’s funny is that during last season’s playoffs I was hoping for a Liberty-LA Sparks finals, especially given the amazing game those two teams had on July 25, 2008 in Madison Square Garden. Almost exactly a year later, both teams are fighting for playoff spots. And the sad part is that – as I described yesterday -- with Sparks forward Candace Parker getting better by the game and center Lisa Leslie returning from injury, the Sparks might in fact have more reason to hope for a turnaround that the Liberty…

Anyway, more to come about teams as I watch games over the next week…for now, I turn to players and hand out some mid-season awards: Defensive Player of the Year, Most Outstanding Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Woman of the Year and MVP, what I consider the easiest to hardest right now. Most Improved Player just has way too many candidates to choose one.

Defensive Player of the Year candidates: Nicky Anosike…Tamika Catchings, Alana Beard, Jia Perkins, Sancho Lyttle.

I would like someone to present me with an argument for someone other than Nicky Anosike to win the DPOY for their performance thus far this season. Any defensive statistics you look at make the argument clear that it’s not worth looking at. But I heard something during the All-Star game broadcast that sort of summarizes what makes her the clear favorite for DPOY: “She’s a center and she’s leading the league in steals.”

That’s unheard of in basketball.

She is one of the most dominant defensive players I’ve ever watched. And what makes her so dominant is that she can do the dirty work in the paint but then step out to the perimeter, guard guards, and take the ball from them too. It’s quite remarkable. She’s a defensive weapon almost unparalleled in the basketball world.

If you think I’m exaggerating, watch her and try to prove otherwise…but she’s having an amazing defensive season.

Winner: Anosike

Most Outstanding Player candidates: Nicky Anosike, Becky Hammon, Cappie Pondexter, Diana Taurasi

Notice that I’m dividing MOP and MVP…because I think MVP is a lot less clear. But so far, the most outstanding player, no matter how you want to slice it, is Cappie Pondexter. This one is not nearly as clear cut as Anosike for DPOY…and in fact both Anosike and Diana Taurasi both have legitimate claims on this (fictitious) honor. But I’ve said it a number of times – Pondexter’s transformation from a pure scorer into an all-around player who can both score and make teammates better has been fascinating to watch.

She’s a triple-double threat every night at this point and plays solid defense on a team not normally noted for its defense. She’s made herself almost impossible to defend because even on an off night, she’s demonstrated the ability to take over the game with her playmaking ability. It’s hard to imagine Phoenix having the type of success they’ve experienced without Pondexter’s contribution.

Anosike’s defensive ability makes her a clear candidate for this honor and Diana Taurasi’s typically outstanding play makes her a strong candidate as well. Becky Hammon is also a candidate here as she has put up very impressive numbers after missing some games early in the season to play with the Russian National Team.

Winner: Pondexter

Rookie of the Year candidates: DeWanna Bonnner, Angel McCoughtry, Renee Montgomery, Kristi Toliver, Shavonte Zellous
For rookie of the year, I went through the same statistical process I went through when I last posted rookie rankings two weeks ago on July 14th. The process was essentially designed to answer the question of what we can expect a player to contribute to the team with the ball in their hands, adding some nuance to the standard points per game standard of assessment.

And there’s really no difference in the outcome since that point: DeWanna Bonner is clearly the top rookie thus far, still ranking among the top players in the league in usage rate (how often they attempt to make plays), Chaiken Efficiency Ratio (the ratio of scoring plays they make to non-scoring plays), and Boxscores (how much they contribute to team winning). Meanwhile, she is almost indisputably the most productive player of any rookie thus far.

But Angel McCoughtry is still right on her heels and if she can turn it around she might give Bonner a challenge. I still believe she is probably the most talented player in this rookie class, she just needs time to develop and refine her skills. However, at this point in the season, McCoughtry is the only other rookie to rank in the top tier of the league in the three aforementioned statistical categories and also brings passing ability. What will make her a tough sell, even if she does improve her performance, is that she is still a below average rebounder for a forward. But who knows – if Bonner hits a rookie wall and McCoughtry improves, McCoughtry could win this contest.

The only major change is that Shavonte Zellous has probably moved firmly into third place for ROY. She is still being carried by her amazing free throw rate, but her defensive ability doesn’t exactly hurt – she might be the best defensive rookie guard. Renee Montgomery remains interesting to watch having earned a starting spot and Kristi Toliver is slowly becoming a more efficient player. And statistically, Courtney Paris is making herself relevant, but not yet in the mix for ROY.

Winner: Bonner

Sixth Woman of the Year candidates: DeWanna Bonner, Roneeka Hodges, Angel McCoughtry, Noelle Quinn, Tan White

Whereas Candace Parker took home both ROY and MVP last year, DeWanna Bonner could very well win ROY and Sixth Woman of the Year this year. In fact, Bonner is probably more clearly sixth woman of the year than ROY.

Put simply, Bonner is outplaying most starters this season – as I previously described, she’s one of the few players to rank in the top tier in Boxcores, usage rate, and efficiency ratio. That means you know when she comes off the bench, she’s going to contribute.

The runners-up really are not close, but have all contributed directly to their team’s success off the bench in some way – Tan White and Roneeka Hodges with scoring, Noelle Quinn by scoring and occasionally running the Sparks’ offense, and Angel McCoughtry has a very good all-around game that has made her an important piece to the Atlanta Dream’s bench. But like I said…making an argument for anyone besides Bonner is a real stretch.

Winner: Bonner

Most Valuable Player candidates: Anosike, Catchings, Shameeka Christon, Hammon, Lauren Jackson, Jia Perkins, Pondexter, Taurasi

MVP is going to be a tough one this year and will likely depend upon whether someone is able to carry their team to the playoffs in the second half of the season.

Fundamentally, I think the MVP is not only the player who contributes the most to her team, but also the player who contributes the most with the least help, thus making them most valuable. In other words, the player whose team can least afford to go without them. When you take the MVP away from their team, the team’s likelihood to win games should decrease considerably.

This is of course my belief about how the award should be given rather than the way I think it’s actually voted upon…but here are the five criteria I use to assess a player’s MVP worthiness.

1. As an individual award, I don’t believe that the relative quality of one’s team should decide the MVP award – logically, the best player on the best team might not be the most valuable…it might have just been a very good team. So I’m judging based on the player’s individual contribution to their team.

2. It’s also quite possible that the best player in the league is not the most valuable in the league. Theoretically, a player who is not even considered All-WNBA caliber could be the most valuable to her team if she is single-handedly carrying the team to whatever wins they get. This is why I selected my Most Outstanding Player above – two different awards.

3. The Superstar Teammate principle: I will still find it difficult to argue that a player who is playing next to a superstar teammate could possibly be the most valuable in the league. If the best two players in the league are playing together how can one of them possibly be the most valuable to their team in the league? Chances are if the team was missing one of them – for say a two-game suspension – the other star would step up and help the team win. It’s unfair to the players because one of them might be more valuable in ways that we fans cannot perceive…but if you do make the argument, what would you use to defend it aside from the criteria for MOP?

4. The player should be someone who you want with the ball in their hands at the end of a game or who can at least be expected to be used as a convincing decoy. The player doesn’t necessarily have to be able to score, but when they have the ball, you should expect a MVP to make plays. The same argument could be used to justify voting a strong defensive player MVP, it’s just not as convenient to measure as the points per game that people normally use.

5. When the player is on the court, they should make their team better somehow, not worse. This is obviously leading to an argument for the use of plus/minus in MVP analysis and I acknowledge it’s an imperfect statistic. But if you look at the players who have a negative plus/minus rating, I think it’s reasonable to say a MVP should be on the plus side of the equation.

So these five criteria will be applied to the players who made the 2009 All-Star team – you have to figure that a player who did not make the All-Star team is probably not their team’s MVP.

The candidates above represent two things: the players with the top five Boxscores in the WNBA (in order: Taurasi, Pondexter, Anosike, Catchings, and Jackson) in addition to three other players who are carrying a significant amount of the load for their team’s this season (Christon, Hammon, and Perkins).

To start, the eight players chosen are also the players who have contributed the most value to their teams this season based on David Sparks’ val pct metric:

Anosike: 26.3%
Christon: 25.6%
Perkins: 23.7%
Hammon: 23.1%
Jackson: 22.8%
Catchings: 21.8%
Taurasi: 21.1%
Pondexter: 20.4%

So what makes Taurasi and Pondexter absolutely remarkable as players is that they are among the most productive players in the league and have managed to divide the burden to help the Mercury almost equally between them (note: they might not actually even be the top duo in the league this season – Hammon and Sophia Young have combined for 43.1% of their team’s statistical production).

All Boxscores does is take that percentage of the team’s statistical production and applies it directly to the number of wins the team has for the season. So essentially, Boxscores is a metric that measures the player’s statistical contribution in terms of wins. Here are those numbers:

1. Taurasi: 2.74
2. Pondexter: 2.65
3. Anosike: 2.63
4. Catchings: 2.61
5. Jackson: 2.51
6. (Tanisha Wright: 2.01)
7. (Katie Douglas: 1.93)
8. Perkins: 1.89
9. (Charde Houston: 1.87)
10. (Tammy Sutton-Brown: 1.87)
19. Hammon: 1.61
24. Christon: 1.53

So what we have now is the player who is responsible the largest percentage of their team’s statistical production (Anosike) and the player whose production has contributed the most wins (Taurasi). But to further reinforce the point about the player whose team can least afford to lose them, let’s go one step further and look at who has done the most with the least help from a teammate (the teammate’s Boxscore is in parentheses).

Anosike: +.76 (Houston: 1.87)
Catchings: +.68 (Douglas: 1.93)
Christon: +.52 (Janel McCarville 1.01)
Jackson: +.50 (Wright: 2.01)
Perkins: +.31 (Candice Dupree: 1.58)
Hammon: +.20 (Young: 1.41)
Taurasi: +.09 (Pondexter: 2.65)
Pondexter: -.09 (Taurasi: 2.74)

So obviously the players are only separated by fractions of a win – there’s no way a decision could be made based on these numbers alone. Nevertheless, it becomes an interesting way to look at the players relative to each other. Anosike has probably done the most in the league relative to her teammates -- even though Charde Houston is also an All-Star, Anosike’s performance has been a clear step above hers.

Christon is also an interesting case – although nobody would put her in the conversation for MOP, she is clearly contributing a lot to her team’s ability to win. Meanwhile Taurasi and Pondexter are almost playing each other even, making it extremely difficult to make a clear argument for one being more valuable than the other to the Mercury, much less in comparison to other team leaders.

So perhaps more is needed…

If we look at usage rates – the number of offensive plays the player is individually responsible for – Anosike is the only player in this eight who doesn’t rank in the top 50 of the league. However, in terms of defensive plays, there is no player who makes more of those in the league, so it doesn’t necessarily exclude Anosike from the discussion. But here are those numbers:

Hammon: 28.17
Taurasi: 26.329
Pondexter: 26.325
Jackson: 25.40
Perkins: 25.16
Catchings: 23.82
Christon: 21.94
Anosike: 20.28

And I have yet to find an overall productivity metric that doesn’t have Taurasi #1 and Anosike #2 (MEV, EFF, Tendex). Kevin Pelton’s WARP rating has Anosike #1 and Taurasi #2. So perhaps plus minus number can provide some insight…? Here they are:

Anosike: +20.5
Jackson: +14.4
Perkins: +12.7
Christon: +12.4
Catchings: +11.9
Pondexter: +9.4
Hammon: +8.7
Taurasi: +5.1

This is interesting when compared to the previous usage numbers – Anosike has the 4th best plus/minus rating in the league but doesn’t have the ball in her hands to make plays as often as Taurasi. Taurasi has the ball in her hands and is relied upon to make plays as a ball handler and thus has a much lower plus/minus.

But for me it looks like it’s between Taurasi and Anosike for the MVP. And yes, I acknowledge that Pondexter should still remain in the conversation as a third option who is really almost even with Taurasi. But really it comes down to a potent offensive player vs. a potent defensive player.

So how do you choose?

Looking at any further statistics (rebounding, passing, shooting efficiency) would be so position specific that it would be difficult to gain any clarity.

If it truly came down to Anosike, Pondexter, and Taurasi, I think it’s fair to say Taurasi would win a vote on star power alone, despite the DUI controversy. By the end of the season that will be forgotten if she continues producing wins.

However, here’s the way I’m going to think about it – the one knock against Anosike is her usage rate and that she’s not a player who can create a lot offensively. So you might think that her offensive weaknesses would hurt her overall production as a player, especially since there really is no good metric for defense. And yet despite the obvious “weakness”, she’s right behind Taurasi in any metric you look at as the second most productive player in the league.

So if you consider that with the fact that Anosike is indisputably the best defensive player in the league, it’s hard not to select her as MVP. And just in case you feel adamant about her offensive ineptitude, perhaps you should watch her – I don’t know whether it’s Jennifer Gillom or just a natural progression as a young player, but she is a vastly improved offensive player from last year, displaying an array of moves from both the post and the perimeter. In other words, if Anosike won the award, it would not be solely as a defensive player. It would be as arguably the best post player in the WNBA right now.

Of course, it’s only mid-season – all of this could change by the end and Taurasi or Pondexter could emerge as the clear candidates for MVP. But at mid-season let’s put it to the test – can you imagine the Minnesota Lynx winning even 10 games without Anosike?

Personally, I can’t.

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Shavonte Zellous: A Talented Scorer and Promising All-Around Defender

Shavonte Zellous does not exactly have the same imposing physical presence that many of her Detroit Shock teammates bring to the court.

At 5’10” one could assume that she weighs no more than 140 pounds on a good day, a point only reinforced by the fact that most WNBA websites -- and the programs distributed at Key Arena -- don’t list her weight. Her wiry frame and seemingly nonchalant demeanor on the sidelines hardly seem to fit the profile of the successful professional athlete that we may have grown accustomed to.

And yet, underneath that slight build and unassuming demeanor is an immensely talented and athletic rookie who has not only earned a spot in the Shock’s veteran rotation, but also leads all rookies in minutes per game. Even though her statistics in the first 11 games of her rookie year have been less than stellar, it becomes obvious why Zellous has earned such a significant role in the Shock’s rotation when watching her play.

She plays with the confidence and tenacity of a veteran and is full of energy with plenty of energy to spare. She makes up for her slight frame with amazing speed, darting around the court to free herself for scoring opportunities on offense and disrupting the opponents’ plays on defense.

When I first heard someone compare her to her star teammate Deanna Nolan, I was immediately skeptical. Nolan is not only one of the WNBA’s top guards, scorers, and defenders, but she also possesses unparalleled athleticism. She almost seems to be gliding across the court when she runs with her long strides, looking so effortless that it almost hides just how fast she is. Could Zellous really become that good?

It’s difficult to tell just how good Zellous can become right now, but she certainly has all the athleticism, speed, and skill to warrant the comparison to Nolan. And of course it doesn’t hurt that she modeled her game after Nolan even prior to being drafted by the Shock.

So when I went to the Storm – Shock game at Key Arena on Wednesday night, Zellous was one of the players I chose to focus on and really a major reason I was looking forward to the game. I came away quite impressed.

An amazing ability to create shots…and working on making them

The WNBA.com draft preview described Zellous as, “an explosive and entertaining guard that has the ability to create her own shot off the dribble and either get to the basket or pull up with a smooth jumper.”

But so often it’s hard to tell whether that will translate into success on the professional level. Thus far, those abilities she displayed in college have done her well on the professional level as well.

In addition to being a close second to DeWanna Bonner (11.7) in points per game among rookies with an average of 11.5, Zellous is also among the league leaders in free throw rate and makes opponents pay for putting her on the line with a 90.9% free throw shooting percentage.

She draws fouls simply by out-quicking opponents – as a defender, if you give her any space she’ll quickly pull up for a jumper and if you player her close she has shown that she can blow by almost anyone. By the time most opponents can catch up, they’re grabbing at her a few steps behind. Once that jumper starts falling more often, she will be nearly impossible to guard.

A promising all-around defender

As amazing as she is offensively, I was far more impressed by her defense in watching her live against the Storm. I’m not sure I got a sense of just how fast she is and how much energy she plays with watching her on television (or LiveAccess). She is in constant motion. And that translates into really solid defensive play.

And when I say solid defensive play, I don’t just mean staying in front of perimeter players. Against the Storm, she guarded just about every position on the floor at various times. And no not just on switches or odd rotations – she was briefly matched up with the likes of all-stars Lauren Jackson and Swin Cash as well as forward Camille Little at various times, in addition to Storm guards.

But what’s important is that she was not just in the vicinity of these players creating an easy mismatch to exploit, but she fought…hard…and on more than one occasion, she was able to force them off their position, force a turnover, or even come up with a blocked shot. If defense is all about hard work and effort, Zellous’ performance against the Storm was the embodiment of that – she just seemed to want it a little bit more than the players she was guarding and found the strength to make plays on defense despite a serious size disadvantage.

Zellous’ toughness, tenacity and fearlessness on the defensive end is makes her a potentially special player at the professional level. While she’ll probably earn build her reputation as an offensive weapon, her defensive ability is what will probably allow her to find a long-term place in the WNBA.



Looking forward to a bright future

At halftime of the Storm-Shock game, an acquaintance who had followed Zellous since her high school days -- when she was an unheralded Pitt recruit out of Florida -- commented that that “this kid has a career”. And that seems to be an understatement.

She has all the tools to have a long and productive career as a key player on competitive WNBA teams. And there aren’t many players who can say that they actually have the opportunity to learn from the player they aspire to become.

However, just being around great players doesn’t seem to mean a whole lot unless a rookie is willing to listen. In talking about rookie point guard Renee Montgomery, Minnesota Lynx assistant coach Jim Peterson mentioned that one thing that makes Montgomery successful is that she is an active listener, constantly trying to get better. And watching Zellous during the game, it was clear that she possesses a similar desire to listen.

It seemed she was not only listening attentively to every word spoken on the sideline, but also actively seeking out information from almost anybody that would offer it – teammates or coaches, on the court or on the bench. She appears to be constantly engaged in a process of becoming a better player. And that could lead to great things in the future.






Transition Points:

Zellous is ranked third in the most recent WNBA.com rookie rankings and fourth in the most recent Rethinking Basketball rookie rankings. Aside from the ranking of DeWanna Bonner, Angel McCoughtry and Shavonte Zellous, the WNBA rankings differ quite a bit from my rankings. Given her defensive ability, I would definitely bump her up to third. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the course of the season.

Zellous is one of three rookies in the top 20 of the highest percentage of unassisted field goals according to Swanny's Stats: Zellous is #16 with an unassisted field goal percentage of 58.1%, Renee Montgomery is 3rd at 72.5%, and Angel McCoughtry is 4th at 70%. I suggested these three would give Rookie of the Year front runner DeWanna Bonner a run for her money because of their ability to create scoring opportunities with the ball in their hands. This statistic would provide further support for their abilities.

Zellous is also right ahead of Shock teammates Nolan and Alexis Hornbuckle's 57.1% and Katie Smith is 10th at 62.7%. While the stat by itself only says that these players are able to create a number of scoring opportunities by themselves, the fact that all four guards in the Shock made this list means that they might not be getting the type of ball movement they had in their offense last year.

That theory is supported by the fact that their assists/field goals attempted percentage is 20% thus far this season -- last season, the lowest ast/fga percentage was the 4-30 Atlanta Dream with a ratio of 21.46%. Against the storm, their ratio was 38.3%. Ball movement might not be the only explanation for the Shock's woes -- they had an ast/fga percentage of 10% in their previous win against the Sun -- but it seems to be one potential difference from last season.

If the Shock are looking to get back on track this season, this might be the right time -- their next game is against the Phoenix Mercury (who will be missing Diana Taurasi due to suspension) and the Sacramento Monarchs (now in sole possession of last place in the WNBA with the Shock's win on Wednesday night) before a four game home stand.
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Rookie Rankings: Bonner the Frontrunner for ROY, But For How Long?

DeWanna Bonner is experiencing something of a dream rookie season, if not quite the historic season Candace Parker put together in the 2008 season.

Most rookies selected #5 in a professional sports draft are forced to withstand more losing in one season than they’ve ever experienced in their basketball lives (or perhaps decades of losing if you’re drafted by the NBA’s Golden State Warriors). Conversely, rookies that are drafted by winning times often have a difficult time cracking the rotation or end up with minor roles.

Bonner is one of the lucky few who gets the best of both worlds.

Not only did she get the honor of being selected fifth by the Phoenix Mercury in the 2009 WNBA draft, but she has also earned a spot in the rotation and arguably become one of the team’s key players. And did you happen to see how the Mercury demolished the LA Sparks and Chicago Sky and then pulled out a tough win on the road against the Monarchs? Yes, they’re a contender – and the way they’re able to blow teams out in 5-10 minutes is actually sort of scary.

Bonner just happened to land in a perfect situation that maximizes her strengths and hides her weaknesses. And really it’s a mutual fit – a running team like the Mercury needs players like Bonner. The Mercury help Bonner flourish and Bonner helps the Mercury flourish.

Unfortunately, Bonner’s rookie peers haven’t been so lucky – Marissa Coleman has been injured, and Briann January, Angel McCoughtry, Renee Montgomery, Kristi Toliver, and Shavonte Zellous have all gotten inconsistent playing time despite each having a breakout game. And yet, when those players have gotten opportunities, they’ve not only seized the moment, but they have also demonstrated the ability to literally carry their teams in one way or another for extended stretches. From those brief moments of excellence, one could certainly argue one of these other rookies could easily assume the mantle of front runner.

I don’t mean to suggest that we should make claims about the best rookie based on potential -- the Rookie of the Year award generally goes to the rookie who makes the biggest impact, not necessarily the “most talented/promising” or “most valuable” rookie. And as noted on the WNBA website, “Since 2001 every Rookie of the Year winner has started 100% of their games and only twice in the history of the award have the honorees come off the bench.”

However, without that informal criterion this season, it is likely that people will focus on points per game as their criterion for choosing the Rookie of the Year. Normally, I would challenge that narrow approach to the Rookie of the Year and propose a broader framework for rookie analysis. But the inertia of habit is not easily broken. So I give in...but that doesn't mean I'll confine myself to points per game either.

After putting some thought into the issue and watching some of the top candidates over the past week or so, it’s clear that after one third of the season, Bonner is indeed the clear front runner for ROY. However, when you actually observe the other talented first rounders -- like McCoughtry, Montgomery, Coleman, and Zellous – you see a demonstrated ability to make things happen and actually take over games. So I have to wonder how long it will be before another rookie grows into a role with their team and not only puts up numbers but also demonstrates an ability to dominate games. But the question is, how close is the competition to Bonner?

Rethinking Rookie Performance…again…

Last week I posted a slightly refined version of a rather long and winding stream-of-consciousness free write that was intended to frame my examination of this year’s rookies. In case you don’t feel like untangling my thoughts, it boils down to three core points:

1. Rookies are difficult to evaluate fairly because they are going to perform inconsistently as they try to transition from the NCAA to the WNBA, find a role on their teams, and of course continue developing their skills…so a linear production metric alone is somewhat inadequate.

2. However, when considering candidates for Rookie of the Year – an award given to a player based on an inherently erratic rookie performance – we should judge a player based on what they actually do, not what they might do later or cannot do.

3. To succeed as a player that contributes to a team’s success, a rookie needs to do something very well, especially when WNBA rosters have been trimmed down.

Realistically though, most people will probably stick with the points per game. So rather than try to persuade people of the value of using broader criteria, I’m going to suggest a more nuanced look at scoring ability based upon three questions:

1. How does she get their points? (descriptive)

2. How well does she create scoring opportunities for themselves? (evaluative)

3. Is there some demonstrated skill that sets her apart from other rookies and might help her succeed long term? (prospective)

Those questions might help shift the way we think about the best rookie from the end result of points per game to the means by which they put up those points and the actual skills they demonstrate in the process. Someone putting up points in big minutes on a bad team is not nearly as impressive as coming off the bench and showing the ball handling ability, post moves, or instincts to get open against WNBA competition in the process of scoring points.

Thankfully, I think there are statistics that might help us think through that…and a full description of how I conceptualized this analysis is here.

But in summary, here’s the sequential framework I’ve used for analysis of rookies:

First, I compared the rookies based upon their usage percentage, Chaiken scoring efficiency, and Boxscores.

Second, I looked at 2 point percentage, assist rate, and free throw rate to further differentiate those who fell behind on Doolittle’s framework.

Third, I took a look at offensive rebounding rate as another valuable skill for rookies to contribute, if not quite as important as the ones above based on the work of previous people.

(Again, all of those statistics are described here)

And instead of ranking players, I’m taking a different approach this time -- I looked at the rookie in relation to the rest of the league in order to see which rookies are doing things particularly well by WNBA standards rather than just rookie standards.

To do that, I broke each statistic into 3 tiers (about 50 players each unless there was a clear breaking point) giving me a sense of what it means to be above average, average, and below average in a given statistical category. As one might guess, the most productive players in the league also end up ranking as above average or average in multiple statistical skills.

What this helps us do is look not only at who is producing what, but also look at what specifically each rookie is able to do well.

The frontrunners: DeWanna Bonner and Angel McCoughtry

Bonner has been a statistical monster this season. Yes, she is coming off the bench. But what she’s doing in limited minutes is remarkable.

There are 17 players in the entire WNBA who rank in the top tiers in Boxscores, usage %, and pts/zero point possession. Bonner and McCoughtry are among that group.

One of those players (Janell Burse) is playing extremely well in limited minutes, but take a look at the rest of the elite company our two top rookies are among:

1. Diana Taurasi
2. Lauren Jackson
3. Cappie Pondexter
4. Katie Douglas
5. Jia Perkins
6. Charde Houston
7. Sancho Lyttle
8. Swin Cash
9. Candice Dupree
10. Alana Beard
11. Seimone Augustus
12. Shameka Christon
13. Betty Lennox
14. Hamchetou Maiga-Ba

Both Bonner and McCoughtry are statistically playing at an all-star level. So how do we differentiate?

Bonner is by far the better rebounder, ranking in the top tier of offensive rebounding in the league with an impressive rate of 21%. McCoughtry’s offensive rebounding rate is only a third of that at 7.5%. However, in total rebounding percentage – not one of my key skills but significant in comparing these two as forwards – McCoughtry (7.48%) is in the bottom tier while Bonner (16.79%) is in the top tier. Ultimately, one could argue that a forward who cannot rebound is not quite as valuable as one that can.

However, in one of the chosen skills – 2 point percentage – McCoughtry (49.38%) is in the top tier while Bonner (43.92%) is in the middle tier. So really, one could argue that choosing between McCoughtry and Bonner is a matter of taste and fit moreso than absolute quality – McCoughtry is by far the better ball handler and passer, as evidenced by her 15.49% assist ratio (middle tier) compared to Bonner’s 4.05% assist ratio.

But I am actually going to choose – and right now, I have to go with Bonner.

Bonner did just happen to be a perfect fit for the Phoenix Mercury, who drafted her #5 this year. And the Mercury’s system is conducive to big numbers for a player like Bonner – she gets a large number of her points off of fast break lay-ups and gets a number of free throw attempts as defenders try to keep up with her as she flashes across the key.

But a major asset that she adds to the Mercury’s system is that she has amazing instincts for a rookie. As the team runs up and down the floor shooting quick shots, Bonner is quick and athletic enough to get in position for an offensive rebound before anyone can catch up to her to box her out. Add to that her outstanding rebounding instincts and she is a player that is clearly a huge asset to a running team like the Mercury.

Bonner has proven that she can contribute to a WNBA team and do so rather efficiently. Similar to what I’ve said about Crystal Kelly on numerous occasions, she has amazing instincts and just seems to have a superior awareness of where to be on the floor to make plays for her team. And even if she doesn’t make the first shot, she's an excellent offensive rebounders, and draws fouls for an above average free throw rate. What she has that Kelly doesn’t is amazing athleticism and quickness, which allows her to get a number of offensive rebounds and second chance shots, despite her slight frame.

But here’s the kicker for Bonner -- is she someone who you would want to have the ball in her hands at the end of a close game to make something happen? Not necessarily based upon what I’ve seen.

If Bonner is forced to make a move to the basket requiring more than one dribble and beating a defender, she really struggles. She looks extremely awkward putting the ball on the floor and often misses shots when she gets the least bit of pressure before getting to the rim.

An interesting statistical point along those lines is that despite getting the majority of her scoring opportunities on fast break layups or layups cutting to the basket, she only shoots 45% on 2 point field goals. One can imagine that she will improve upon her two point scoring once she adds strength to her frame.

And that’s what makes this Rookie of the Year race interesting – a player like Angel McCoughtry can just do more with the ball than hit wide open jumpers or score off cuts on a fast break. McCoughtry has demonstrated the ability to put the ball on the floor and get by her defender, hit pull-up jumpers off the dribble, and she is even a decent passer.

The issue for McCoughtry is decision making and finding a consistent role in the Dream’s “system”. With the exception of her very low rebounding numbers, McCoughtry might end up being the better all-around talent a few years down the line. But again, this is an award that rewards current performance, not future potential…and right now Bonner has her beat, though I think the race is closer than most people are trying to make it. If McCoughtry finds a consistent role on the Dream in the next two-thirds of the season, McCoughtry could easily take the ROY award.

And there are at least three other players behind Bonner and McCoughtry that have real game changing ability rather than just being efficient contributors to a system perfectly suited for them.

The Contenders: Renee Montgomery, Shavonte Zellous, and Marissa Coleman

As the only two rookies that are top tier players in Boxscores, usage percentage, and scoring efficiency, Bonner and McCoughtry are clearly in front of the pack. But there are a few players right on their heels.

Renee Montgomery, who you may already know is a Rethinking Basketball favorite, is clearly the #3 rookie in the league based on this framework, ahead of Zellous for a simple reason – Montgomery is the more efficient scorer and has contributed more to her team’s success this season. Furthermore, as they are both point guards, the fact that Montgomery is a better play maker becomes relevant – neither has a pure point rating that one might expect from a starting point guard, but Montgomery has an assist ratio of 17.11% while Zellous has an assist ratio of 5.71%.

Just a few days ago before Montgomery really got comfortable with the Minnsota Lynx, Zellous would have clearly been #3 behind Bonner and McCoughtry. But Montgomery is getting increasingly more patient in choosing scoring opportunities in addition to finding a role within the Lynx’s offense, in no small part because of the outstanding coaching job of Minnesota coach (and my early pick for Coach of the Year) Jennifer Gillom.

But I’ve gushed enough about Montgomery.

Watching Zellous, it’s obvious that she is able to get her shot whenever she wants. Not only that, but she is extremely adept at getting herself to the free throw line with the second highest free throws made/field goal attempted in the league. Not bad for a rookie.

The problem is that she can get really trigger happy and singularly focused on taking very difficult contested jump shots. In one telecast, Atlanta Dream commentator LaChina Robinson compared Zellous’ game to that of Deanna Nolan. And aside from obvious differences in physical attributes and athleticism (I think Nolan is probably among the best pure athletes in the league) the comparison works in terms of style of play -- her ability to create space and get her jumper off is phenomenal. Making said jumper is another story – Zellous has a 2-point percentage of 35.29%, which I probably not need tell is in the bottom tier of the league.

If Zellous becomes more patient as a player and gets better at choosing her spots and distributing to others, she could be a force. But right now, when you beyond points per game and the ability to get to the free throw line, it’s hard to make an argument that she should rank ahead of the other three.

Unfortunately, I have not yet seen Coleman in one of her better pre-injury games. Nevertheless, she has an above average usage rate and Chaiken efficiency ratio implying that she can score efficiently (the only reason her Boxscore number is only average is because she missed games). The only troubling thing about Coleman is her 2 point percentage which was at 35.74% through Friday and she’s only an average rebounder. Again down the line, Coleman might be the better overall player, but for now, Bonner is probably the forward of choice.

Rotation players: Kristi Toliver, Briann January, Quanitra Hollingsworth

I honestly have not paid much attention to Hollingsworth while watching the Lynx. But briefly, Hollingsworth is about average in all of the aforementioned statistics and an above average rebounder in addition to having an above average free throw rate.

However, I have paid quite a bit of attention to January and Toliver. And while I think January might be stagnating as she continues to struggle with her shooting, Toliver might be on the rise after her impressive performance against the Storm.

For the season, the problem for Toliver is that similar to Zellous, she has no problem getting that picture perfect jumper off with an above average usage percentage, she just has not been shooting it very efficiently – she is in the bottom tier in Chaiken efficiency ratio. But what’s interesting is that she is also right behind January in the top tier in assist ratio and well ahead of Montgomery in that category. Considering her reputation as a shooter and a serious turnover problem, that’s what continues to impress me most about Toliver.

In the game against the Storm, she recorded 7 assists and 3 turnovers for a pure point ratio of 6.17 and an assist ratio of 33.33%, which are the type of numbers an elite point guard would put up for the season. Beyond the numbers, I was shocked by how good of a passer she is – she effortlessly makes pinpoint passes that put the receiver in perfect position to score.

You will not see Toliver make spectacular drives and the fancy highlight reel passes that bring the crowd to their feet, but that’s not always needed. And that’s what Toliver seems to understand – she typically makes the right play, even if that play is looking for her own shot.

However, one major flaw with Toliver as a point guard is that she is a suspect ball handler, which often results in mishandling the ball or turning it over. Furthermore, unlike the best point guards, she really struggles keeping a live dribble when any type of pressure is applied. That -- as much as foot speed and a quick first step -- is really what’s holding Toliver back right now.

Perhaps her ball handling skills will develop over time allowing her to get herself open for even better scoring opportunities. But for now, if she is given minutes and a clear role (in a clearly structured system) her basketball IQ will take her a long way and perhaps catapult her into that “contender” range.

January is pretty much the polar opposite of Toliver – she is the only rookie point guard with a positive pure point rating and high assist ratio. She is an excellent ball handler and has great court vision. Her problem is shooting. Part of that may be mechanics as her shot often comes off flat. But all of her scoring efficiency numbers are below average. I still like her quite a bit as a point guard who is able to get the ball up the court and make the right pass. But she has been pulled from games on more than one occasion for trying to make “showtime” passes after driving through the defense.

The underdog: Shalee Lehning

Here’s my bold statement of the day: by the end of this season, Lehning could record the most starts of any rookie. She is by far the most effective point guard on the Dream’s roster. And that would make a great playoff feature story, should the Dream make it that far – Lehning was certainly not expected to even stick with a roster this season.

However, Lehning is not spectacular, which leads many people to underestimate her. But what’s perplexing to me is the way in which people attempt to dismiss Lehning. This phrase has never made much basketball sense to me: all she does is bring the ball up the floor and pass it to scorers. To which I respond, isn’t that part of a point guard’s job -- that she does that better than most of the other five on the court?

Queenie from Game Notes of Doom best characterized the value of Lehning’s game as follows:

Lehning didn't impress me, except that by being unremarkable, she proved that she belonged as a rookie, and that's no bad thing. It usually takes players a lot longer to look that comfortable on the court.

If being a point guard is all about decision making, then Lehning’s ability to comfortably make good decisions should be commended, not condemned. And if she cannot shoot well, then deciding not to shoot is a good decision, not a problem. Would it make her better if she could work on her shooting? Sure. But the same could be said for January and -- in a different way -- Zellous.

So the fact that Lehning has a 55% true shooting percentage and a 60% 2 point percentage despite being a poor shooter actually speaks to how good a decision maker she is with the ball, despite having a below average usage rate and Chaiken efficiency rating. And a derivative of that good decision rate is Lehning’s assist rate, which is a league high 54.51%... a good ten percent ahead of the second place guard – ironically, Nikki Teasley (44.64%).

Now to keep things in perspective, last season Leilani Mitchell posted a league-high 38.7 assist rate in addition to an extremely high pure point rating and struggled this year as a starter for the Liberty. So all the assist rate tells us is that Lehning is really just doing little else aside from passing because she shoots so infrequently.

That Lehning is also not able to post the astronomical pure point rating that Mitchell posted last season also does not bode well for her career. But this much can be said about Lehning – coach Marynell Meadors seems to like her, she appears to be a hard worker, and we can expect her to continue to get better as she has already this season.

Untapped potential: Courtney Paris, Chen Nan

I’m not sure which is the trendier thing to do this season: dismiss Lehning or Paris.

Conventional wisdom goes that the transition from college post player to professional post player is the most difficult because there is simultaneously an adjustment in power and strength as well as skill. Players like Paris who were used to just overwhelming college opponents with their size and strength suddenly realize that professional players are not pushed around so easily. Conditioning aside, Paris has what it takes to make it as a post player.

Paris has great hands, absolutely beautiful footwork in the post, and a quick release. She illustrated that she was extremely decisive from the first time I saw her, but the big difference in her last few games is that she’s far more patient with her moves. That is why she ranks in the top tier in the league in Chaiken efficiency ratio – she gets the ball and makes a quick decision to either get to the basket or kick it back out.

And of course she’s a great rebounder – even prior to the big game she had against the rather thin Mercury frontcourt, she had the highest offensive rebounding percentage (the percentage of available rebounds she gets while on the court). She is a big body and she knows how to use it.

While many people are dismissing her more recent performances as one-off occasions, her skills were evident from the beginning. And she is adjusting rapidly. She still has limited range on her shot, but I think that could be said about many post players when they first enter the league. As Paris develops and adds more muscle to her frame, she will only get more effective at the things she does well in the post. It will be interesting to see if the coaching change in Sacramento will bring more minutes for Paris or perhaps a role that better maximizes her strengths.

Chen Nan falls just outside my top ten, but I think deserves a mention, if for no other reason because mobile tall people are not particularly abundant in the world. Nan ranks pretty much average in all the aforementioned statistics, except Chaiken efficiency ratio and assist ratio, and has an above average 2 point percentage.

However, in watching her what impresses me most is that like Paris – though to a lesser extent -- she does have a variety moves in the paint and in the Storm game on Sunday, she even showed that she has a nice outside touch as well. She was far better playing next to Fowles than playing next to Dupree in that game, but she fits into Chicago’s post rotation very well. She is not nearly as far along as some of the other rookies here, but she definitely has tools that can be molded into becoming an effective reserve for a team like the Sky.

Final Rankings

1. DeWanna Bonner
2. Angel McCoughtry

3. Renee Montgomery
4. Shavonte Zellous
5. Marissa Coleman

6. Kristi Toliver
7. Briann January
8. Quanitra Hollingsworth

9. Shalee Lehning

10. Courtney Paris

Of course, we are only about a third of the way through the season…so these rankings could change drastically. But the bigger point is that while Bonner appears to be in a class all by herself right now, any of those players in the top 5 have demonstrated skills that will make them a serious threat to Bonner in the next two thirds of this season.

But fundamentally something else that may play a role in this year’s ROY race is that something intangible that separate the great basketball players from the good ones. Some people call it the “It Factor”. It goes beyond merely possessing the mechanical skills to play the game or the physical tools – athleticism or height – to overwhelm opponents. And it certainly cannot be measured statistically.

It’s most readily visible in the form of a controlled aggression. It’s the awareness to make the right play at the right time more often than not. And it’s sometimes embodied within a unique swagger that exudes a confidence that lets you know that she knows that she can take over at any moment.

But it’s also the ability to outlast an opponent in a battle of wills. It’s an ability to put a team on your back and carry them to victory. It’s the ability to create the big shot in the clutch when everyone else on the court is looking to someone else to step up. It’s an appreciation for the magnitude of the moment without concern for the possibility of failure.

When considering front-runners for Rookie of the Year, this intangible “It factor” perhaps takes on greater significance than it does for the MVP for one simple reason: rookies are inevitably inconsistent. Rookies are constantly adjusting, developing, and learning and it’s perfectly reasonable to suggest that the best rookies might not have the best overall statistics or be a significant contributor to wins…which is all the more reason to keep watching…

Transition Points:

From the statistical league leaders, you might also gather that I would say Lauren Jackson is the clear frontrunner for MVP as well – she is carrying more weight individually to help her team win than any other player in the league and doing so very efficiently.

Last year’s Rethinking Basketball rookie favorite, Leilani Mitchell, ranks in the bottom tier of every single category I looked at except assist ratio. I’m still rooting for her, but such a dramatic change is somewhat shocking.

I hesitated to include winning in the framework, but I think it’s an important element to consider if we’re going to think about usage and efficiency – I really don’t care how creative or efficient you are if you don’t contribute to my team’s success somehow. You play to win the game…

This year, Montgomery is my favorite, but for some reason, I can't help but root for Toliver and Paris as well. I want Toliver to do well for the Sky's sake...and Paris played high school ball in the neighborhood I briefly lived in growing up. For now though, only Toliver gets her name in the tag cloud.

In another Basketball Prospectus article, Doolittle mentioned that somehow athleticism should somehow be taken into account as well. He is working on a metric for that, but one thing I've noticed from NBA summer league games is that steals tend to be a decent proxy for athleticism, at least for guards.

There are of course other ways to look at rookies. Petrel from the Atlanta Dreams Blog and Kevin Pelton from the StormTracker blog have also provided us with their analyses.

By the way, these statistically based rankings seem like the perfect time for a reminder about truth, reason, and subjectivity -- I cannot say that these rankings will lead us only to the truth, but I do believe that they might illustrate truth-like properties.


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