Rookie Rankings: Can Anyone Dream of Catching DeWanna Bonner?

I started to write a rookie rankings post and ended up writing a long post about my thoughts on Atlanta Dream point guard Shalee Lehning.

To summarize the previous post, I found it curious that she was not listed in the latest rookie rankings on WNBA.com at all given that she’s a starter on a playoff caliber team that recently won four games in a row.

Tough crowd, I guess.

However, I have a hard time not putting her among the top ten rookies.

Washington forward Marissa Coleman has not played particularly well since returning from injury.

Chicago Sky guard Kristi Toliver is glued to the bench.

And it’s hard to establish that a player like Connecticut Sun center Chante Black is actually having a bigger impact on her team than Lehning (Black was once a starter for the Sun, but no longer with the return of center Sandrine Gruda).

If you judge rookies on…

a) what they do well,
b) their ability to make things happen when they are on the court, and
c) their ability to contribute to their team’s success in their first season.

…then how can a player starting at point guard be left out?

So as you may have guessed, Lehning is among my top ten rookies, using the same evaluation framework I used for my past rookie rankings. Of course, it's a guide to identify players, not a rigid determinant of who's best.

And you are also safe in assuming that DeWanna Bonner still leads my rookie rankings.

So where does everyone else fall?

1. DeWanna Bonner: Duh. Shouldn’t take much explanation.

It's basically more of the same – there are currently 14 players in the league who are ranked among the top 50 in Boxscores (a player’s individual contribution to team success), usage rate (how well a player is able to create scoring opportunities while on the floor), and scoring efficiency ratio (the ratio of a player’s scoring plays to all non-scoring plays as defined by turnovers and missed shots).

The only other people in that company are MVP candidates and All-Stars…and…

2. Angel McCoughtry: the Rookie of the Month for July is still the most talented rookie of this class, although Bonner’s situation has allowed her to outperform McCoughtry.

Like Bonner, McCoughtry has demonstrated the ability to make things happen with the ball in her hands…and on the defensive end as well. She might become one of the best all-around players in the WNBA as her game matures. You can’t help but see the ability when you watch her game – she can get shots off the dribble, drive to the basket, and draw contact. She can pass the ball and is going to become a very good on ball defender.

Her one glaring weakness is rebounding and it will be interesting to see if she improves on that over the course of her career.

3. Renee Montgomery: As mentioned in the previous post in comparison to Shalee Lehning, Montgomery is not quite the distributor many people want to see from a point guard, but she is a very efficient scorer.

In what could have been a tumultuous season with the coach resigning and forward Seimone Augustus going down to injury early, Montgomery has managed to contribute to the team’s success in key moments. She is about average in terms of the metrics used above to judge Bonner and McCoughtry, but is among the top guards in the league in terms of 2 point percentage.

And her ball handling ability, court sense, and ability to get to the basket for easy scoring opportunities make her easily one of the most impressive rookies of this season. In addition, she is a very solid defender, using her athleticism well to guard players on the ball.

4. Shavonte Zellous: It’s a tough call between Montgomery and Zellous, but I went with Montgomery because she is starting on a team that has been in the thick of the playoff hunt this season at one of the toughest positions in sports. But by the same standard as Bonner and McCoughtry above, Zellous is the next most impressive rookie.

While her team has not performed quite as well, making it difficult to argue she’s contributing as much to team success, she is still among the best in the league at getting herself to the free throw line, creating scoring opportunities for herself, and doing it with high efficiency relative to the league.

As an undersized guard, it would help her to distribute the ball a little more effectively (her assist rate is in the bottom 50 of the league) and shoot a better 2 point percentage (currently 38.84%), but she has otherwise been a very impressive performer this year.

But most importantly, Zellous is the best perimeter defender of anyone of the rookie group. She uses her quickness to create problems for opponents and does a pretty good job of help defense.

5. Courtney Paris: With more playing time, Paris has demonstrated that she can contribute quite a bit to a WNBA roster. She is the second most efficient scorer in the league behind Storm forward Lauren Jackson and has consistently had among the league’s best rebounding rates.

As she continues to adjust to the WNBA game – particularly developing her post moves against WNBA defenders – I would expect her to be even more effective.

6. Anete Jekabsone-Zogota: I have not seen her play a whole lot and she only started playing well recently, but lately, she is easily among the best rookies of this bunch. In her case, it’s not that she does one particular thing well but that she does a little bit of everything. She is already becoming an outstanding all-around player for the Connecticut Sun.

The “lately” qualifier makes it somewhat difficult for me to rank her…but if she can keep this up for the remainder of the season, she’ll end up vaulting ahead at least three of the rookies ahead of her who have been rather inconsistent themselves.

7. Briann January: I happen to like her game, think she has great court vision, and she looks extremely comfortable on the court. The only thing holding January back is that she is not a very efficient scorer right now. However, as a point guard, she’s contributing quite a bit to the Indiana Fever backing up Tully Bevilaqua and that should count for something. It’s also worth noting that she is a solid perimeter defender on a team that relies heavily on defense. The fact that her defense is notable makes her an even stronger player.

8. Megan Frazee: Frazee, very similar to Sacramento Monarchs forward Crystal Kelly last year, is just very often in the right position at the right time to make plays, both on offense and defense. It makes her a valuable asset to a very good San Antonio Silver Stars team.

She’s decisive when she gets the ball and shoots with range. Storm coach Brian Agler once noted that she’s more of a perimeter player right now than an interior player, but when the Storm attempted to put forward Katie Geralds on her on August 1st in Key Arena, she went right to the post and worked Geralds inside. She’s emerging as a solid rotation forward for a team with an embarrassment of riches at the position.

9. Shalee Lehning: Extended thoughts on Lehning are posted here.

And as I stated in that previous post about Lehning, I’m not saying she’s the top rookie or even the best at her position, but you’d have a really hard time naming a rookie that has actually consistently performed better than her this season...because there are not that many rookies even starting for their teams.

10. Quanitra Hollingsworth: If I continue to base my evaluations on the rookie evaluation framework I’ve used above, Hollingsworth is the next best rookie. And it’s close between her, Chante Black, and Marissa Coleman. So what is the deciding factor?

Hollingsworth is among the best offensive rebounders in the league in terms of the percentage of rebounds she gets while she’s on the floor. Offensive rebounding is an extremely valuable asset and the demonstrated ability to do that means she is able to extend possessions for the links and put herself in position for easy baskets.

That ability as well as an average 2 point percentage (44.59%) make Hollingsworth my choice for #10 over some other very worthy players. By the way, another player who flew under the radar last year as a limited offensive rebounder but ended up emerging in her second season: Crystal Langhorne.

Transition Points:

For more about how I went about doing these rankings, please see the Rookie Ranking Framework here.

Kristi Toliver is in the unfortunate situation where she has had neither consistent playing time nor a consistent role on the team.

In terms of performance, she has not had a very good rookie campaign. Yet although I've been quite lukewarm on her for most of the season, she has demonstrated the talent to be an effective player. Hopefully she'll eventually get that opportunity that she's waiting to seize.

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WNBA Midseason Awards & Review: Liberty Struggling…and Anosike for MVP?

Late in the fourth quarter of the New York Liberty’s loss to the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday, I heard a little song on the web cast that I assume was also played in the arena.

The line that grabbed my attention was one that seemed to perfectly capture why I liked the Liberty so much last year.

Our team is built to win. Everybody pitches in. The Liberty – United We Play.

If you read this blog last year, you may remember that the Liberty were an early favorite of mine. Leilani Mitchell’s amazingly efficient point guard play caught my eye, I vaguely recalled Janel McCarville from her NCAA tournament run with Lindsay Whalen at the University of Minnesota, and they appeared to be a well-rounded team. But most of all, I liked the fact that they seemed to play so well as a unit. An excerpt from something I wrote last year:

It’s the intangibles, the little things that won’t show up in the box score and are difficult to describe. They’re tough and they play with heart. Their seemingly endless rotation allows them to play with great energy (usually). Of all the teams in the WNBA, they seem to have the strongest collective personality.

But what I like most about them is that they seem to have a nothing-to-lose swagger. Not much was expected of them at the beginning of the season – while they were expected to make the playoffs, nobody really expected them to make much noise in the playoffs. So in a way, they are the WNBA’s consummate underdog.

Watching them on Sunday, I couldn’t believe that I was even watching essentially the same team.

It’s not that they played terribly on Sunday…they just didn’t play particularly well. And to stick with the theme, it didn’t really look like they’re playing very united this year.

So what’s wrong?

I compared their Four Factors numbers for this year and last year. Contrary to what I might have thought, their assisted field goal percentage is not that much different than what they ended with and they have about the same relative position (7th) as they did last year.

However, the one number that really stood out was their offensive rebounding percentage. It is way down from last year. But I’ll spare you the esoteric numbers and just go with what’s listed at WNBA.com – the Liberty are currently last in the WNBA in rebounding differential with a differential of -5.81 per game. At the end of last year, they were at -2.1, which is not much better, but wasn’t exactly league worst.

The other number that stood out was free throw rate, which is the rate at which they get to the free throw line. This number is partially an estimate of a team’s aggressiveness as the theory goes that getting to the foul line often probably means that you’re putting enough pressure on the defense to draw fouls.

Although the Liberty are shooting very well from the free throw line at 81%, their free throw rate is second to last in the league (the LA Sparks are the worst). That’s down from last year when they were just below average.

Even more interesting is that most of their opponents’ numbers are about the same or slightly worse, meaning that the problem seems to be that their performance has dropped off rather than the opponents’ play improving. And the numbers that have fallen – offensive rebounding and free throw rate – seem indicative of a lack of energy and aggressiveness rather than some sort of slump.

So the question for the Liberty in the second half is simple: can they find that energy that made them successful last season?

If they can, there is still time for them to leap frog erratic Atlanta Dream and Chicago Sky teams as the Liberty are only 1 game out. But moreso than any other team, it seems like the Liberty will require a shift in mindset rather than a performance upgrade to make a playoff run.

What’s funny is that during last season’s playoffs I was hoping for a Liberty-LA Sparks finals, especially given the amazing game those two teams had on July 25, 2008 in Madison Square Garden. Almost exactly a year later, both teams are fighting for playoff spots. And the sad part is that – as I described yesterday -- with Sparks forward Candace Parker getting better by the game and center Lisa Leslie returning from injury, the Sparks might in fact have more reason to hope for a turnaround that the Liberty…

Anyway, more to come about teams as I watch games over the next week…for now, I turn to players and hand out some mid-season awards: Defensive Player of the Year, Most Outstanding Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Woman of the Year and MVP, what I consider the easiest to hardest right now. Most Improved Player just has way too many candidates to choose one.

Defensive Player of the Year candidates: Nicky Anosike…Tamika Catchings, Alana Beard, Jia Perkins, Sancho Lyttle.

I would like someone to present me with an argument for someone other than Nicky Anosike to win the DPOY for their performance thus far this season. Any defensive statistics you look at make the argument clear that it’s not worth looking at. But I heard something during the All-Star game broadcast that sort of summarizes what makes her the clear favorite for DPOY: “She’s a center and she’s leading the league in steals.”

That’s unheard of in basketball.

She is one of the most dominant defensive players I’ve ever watched. And what makes her so dominant is that she can do the dirty work in the paint but then step out to the perimeter, guard guards, and take the ball from them too. It’s quite remarkable. She’s a defensive weapon almost unparalleled in the basketball world.

If you think I’m exaggerating, watch her and try to prove otherwise…but she’s having an amazing defensive season.

Winner: Anosike

Most Outstanding Player candidates: Nicky Anosike, Becky Hammon, Cappie Pondexter, Diana Taurasi

Notice that I’m dividing MOP and MVP…because I think MVP is a lot less clear. But so far, the most outstanding player, no matter how you want to slice it, is Cappie Pondexter. This one is not nearly as clear cut as Anosike for DPOY…and in fact both Anosike and Diana Taurasi both have legitimate claims on this (fictitious) honor. But I’ve said it a number of times – Pondexter’s transformation from a pure scorer into an all-around player who can both score and make teammates better has been fascinating to watch.

She’s a triple-double threat every night at this point and plays solid defense on a team not normally noted for its defense. She’s made herself almost impossible to defend because even on an off night, she’s demonstrated the ability to take over the game with her playmaking ability. It’s hard to imagine Phoenix having the type of success they’ve experienced without Pondexter’s contribution.

Anosike’s defensive ability makes her a clear candidate for this honor and Diana Taurasi’s typically outstanding play makes her a strong candidate as well. Becky Hammon is also a candidate here as she has put up very impressive numbers after missing some games early in the season to play with the Russian National Team.

Winner: Pondexter

Rookie of the Year candidates: DeWanna Bonnner, Angel McCoughtry, Renee Montgomery, Kristi Toliver, Shavonte Zellous
For rookie of the year, I went through the same statistical process I went through when I last posted rookie rankings two weeks ago on July 14th. The process was essentially designed to answer the question of what we can expect a player to contribute to the team with the ball in their hands, adding some nuance to the standard points per game standard of assessment.

And there’s really no difference in the outcome since that point: DeWanna Bonner is clearly the top rookie thus far, still ranking among the top players in the league in usage rate (how often they attempt to make plays), Chaiken Efficiency Ratio (the ratio of scoring plays they make to non-scoring plays), and Boxscores (how much they contribute to team winning). Meanwhile, she is almost indisputably the most productive player of any rookie thus far.

But Angel McCoughtry is still right on her heels and if she can turn it around she might give Bonner a challenge. I still believe she is probably the most talented player in this rookie class, she just needs time to develop and refine her skills. However, at this point in the season, McCoughtry is the only other rookie to rank in the top tier of the league in the three aforementioned statistical categories and also brings passing ability. What will make her a tough sell, even if she does improve her performance, is that she is still a below average rebounder for a forward. But who knows – if Bonner hits a rookie wall and McCoughtry improves, McCoughtry could win this contest.

The only major change is that Shavonte Zellous has probably moved firmly into third place for ROY. She is still being carried by her amazing free throw rate, but her defensive ability doesn’t exactly hurt – she might be the best defensive rookie guard. Renee Montgomery remains interesting to watch having earned a starting spot and Kristi Toliver is slowly becoming a more efficient player. And statistically, Courtney Paris is making herself relevant, but not yet in the mix for ROY.

Winner: Bonner

Sixth Woman of the Year candidates: DeWanna Bonner, Roneeka Hodges, Angel McCoughtry, Noelle Quinn, Tan White

Whereas Candace Parker took home both ROY and MVP last year, DeWanna Bonner could very well win ROY and Sixth Woman of the Year this year. In fact, Bonner is probably more clearly sixth woman of the year than ROY.

Put simply, Bonner is outplaying most starters this season – as I previously described, she’s one of the few players to rank in the top tier in Boxcores, usage rate, and efficiency ratio. That means you know when she comes off the bench, she’s going to contribute.

The runners-up really are not close, but have all contributed directly to their team’s success off the bench in some way – Tan White and Roneeka Hodges with scoring, Noelle Quinn by scoring and occasionally running the Sparks’ offense, and Angel McCoughtry has a very good all-around game that has made her an important piece to the Atlanta Dream’s bench. But like I said…making an argument for anyone besides Bonner is a real stretch.

Winner: Bonner

Most Valuable Player candidates: Anosike, Catchings, Shameeka Christon, Hammon, Lauren Jackson, Jia Perkins, Pondexter, Taurasi

MVP is going to be a tough one this year and will likely depend upon whether someone is able to carry their team to the playoffs in the second half of the season.

Fundamentally, I think the MVP is not only the player who contributes the most to her team, but also the player who contributes the most with the least help, thus making them most valuable. In other words, the player whose team can least afford to go without them. When you take the MVP away from their team, the team’s likelihood to win games should decrease considerably.

This is of course my belief about how the award should be given rather than the way I think it’s actually voted upon…but here are the five criteria I use to assess a player’s MVP worthiness.

1. As an individual award, I don’t believe that the relative quality of one’s team should decide the MVP award – logically, the best player on the best team might not be the most valuable…it might have just been a very good team. So I’m judging based on the player’s individual contribution to their team.

2. It’s also quite possible that the best player in the league is not the most valuable in the league. Theoretically, a player who is not even considered All-WNBA caliber could be the most valuable to her team if she is single-handedly carrying the team to whatever wins they get. This is why I selected my Most Outstanding Player above – two different awards.

3. The Superstar Teammate principle: I will still find it difficult to argue that a player who is playing next to a superstar teammate could possibly be the most valuable in the league. If the best two players in the league are playing together how can one of them possibly be the most valuable to their team in the league? Chances are if the team was missing one of them – for say a two-game suspension – the other star would step up and help the team win. It’s unfair to the players because one of them might be more valuable in ways that we fans cannot perceive…but if you do make the argument, what would you use to defend it aside from the criteria for MOP?

4. The player should be someone who you want with the ball in their hands at the end of a game or who can at least be expected to be used as a convincing decoy. The player doesn’t necessarily have to be able to score, but when they have the ball, you should expect a MVP to make plays. The same argument could be used to justify voting a strong defensive player MVP, it’s just not as convenient to measure as the points per game that people normally use.

5. When the player is on the court, they should make their team better somehow, not worse. This is obviously leading to an argument for the use of plus/minus in MVP analysis and I acknowledge it’s an imperfect statistic. But if you look at the players who have a negative plus/minus rating, I think it’s reasonable to say a MVP should be on the plus side of the equation.

So these five criteria will be applied to the players who made the 2009 All-Star team – you have to figure that a player who did not make the All-Star team is probably not their team’s MVP.

The candidates above represent two things: the players with the top five Boxscores in the WNBA (in order: Taurasi, Pondexter, Anosike, Catchings, and Jackson) in addition to three other players who are carrying a significant amount of the load for their team’s this season (Christon, Hammon, and Perkins).

To start, the eight players chosen are also the players who have contributed the most value to their teams this season based on David Sparks’ val pct metric:

Anosike: 26.3%
Christon: 25.6%
Perkins: 23.7%
Hammon: 23.1%
Jackson: 22.8%
Catchings: 21.8%
Taurasi: 21.1%
Pondexter: 20.4%

So what makes Taurasi and Pondexter absolutely remarkable as players is that they are among the most productive players in the league and have managed to divide the burden to help the Mercury almost equally between them (note: they might not actually even be the top duo in the league this season – Hammon and Sophia Young have combined for 43.1% of their team’s statistical production).

All Boxscores does is take that percentage of the team’s statistical production and applies it directly to the number of wins the team has for the season. So essentially, Boxscores is a metric that measures the player’s statistical contribution in terms of wins. Here are those numbers:

1. Taurasi: 2.74
2. Pondexter: 2.65
3. Anosike: 2.63
4. Catchings: 2.61
5. Jackson: 2.51
6. (Tanisha Wright: 2.01)
7. (Katie Douglas: 1.93)
8. Perkins: 1.89
9. (Charde Houston: 1.87)
10. (Tammy Sutton-Brown: 1.87)
19. Hammon: 1.61
24. Christon: 1.53

So what we have now is the player who is responsible the largest percentage of their team’s statistical production (Anosike) and the player whose production has contributed the most wins (Taurasi). But to further reinforce the point about the player whose team can least afford to lose them, let’s go one step further and look at who has done the most with the least help from a teammate (the teammate’s Boxscore is in parentheses).

Anosike: +.76 (Houston: 1.87)
Catchings: +.68 (Douglas: 1.93)
Christon: +.52 (Janel McCarville 1.01)
Jackson: +.50 (Wright: 2.01)
Perkins: +.31 (Candice Dupree: 1.58)
Hammon: +.20 (Young: 1.41)
Taurasi: +.09 (Pondexter: 2.65)
Pondexter: -.09 (Taurasi: 2.74)

So obviously the players are only separated by fractions of a win – there’s no way a decision could be made based on these numbers alone. Nevertheless, it becomes an interesting way to look at the players relative to each other. Anosike has probably done the most in the league relative to her teammates -- even though Charde Houston is also an All-Star, Anosike’s performance has been a clear step above hers.

Christon is also an interesting case – although nobody would put her in the conversation for MOP, she is clearly contributing a lot to her team’s ability to win. Meanwhile Taurasi and Pondexter are almost playing each other even, making it extremely difficult to make a clear argument for one being more valuable than the other to the Mercury, much less in comparison to other team leaders.

So perhaps more is needed…

If we look at usage rates – the number of offensive plays the player is individually responsible for – Anosike is the only player in this eight who doesn’t rank in the top 50 of the league. However, in terms of defensive plays, there is no player who makes more of those in the league, so it doesn’t necessarily exclude Anosike from the discussion. But here are those numbers:

Hammon: 28.17
Taurasi: 26.329
Pondexter: 26.325
Jackson: 25.40
Perkins: 25.16
Catchings: 23.82
Christon: 21.94
Anosike: 20.28

And I have yet to find an overall productivity metric that doesn’t have Taurasi #1 and Anosike #2 (MEV, EFF, Tendex). Kevin Pelton’s WARP rating has Anosike #1 and Taurasi #2. So perhaps plus minus number can provide some insight…? Here they are:

Anosike: +20.5
Jackson: +14.4
Perkins: +12.7
Christon: +12.4
Catchings: +11.9
Pondexter: +9.4
Hammon: +8.7
Taurasi: +5.1

This is interesting when compared to the previous usage numbers – Anosike has the 4th best plus/minus rating in the league but doesn’t have the ball in her hands to make plays as often as Taurasi. Taurasi has the ball in her hands and is relied upon to make plays as a ball handler and thus has a much lower plus/minus.

But for me it looks like it’s between Taurasi and Anosike for the MVP. And yes, I acknowledge that Pondexter should still remain in the conversation as a third option who is really almost even with Taurasi. But really it comes down to a potent offensive player vs. a potent defensive player.

So how do you choose?

Looking at any further statistics (rebounding, passing, shooting efficiency) would be so position specific that it would be difficult to gain any clarity.

If it truly came down to Anosike, Pondexter, and Taurasi, I think it’s fair to say Taurasi would win a vote on star power alone, despite the DUI controversy. By the end of the season that will be forgotten if she continues producing wins.

However, here’s the way I’m going to think about it – the one knock against Anosike is her usage rate and that she’s not a player who can create a lot offensively. So you might think that her offensive weaknesses would hurt her overall production as a player, especially since there really is no good metric for defense. And yet despite the obvious “weakness”, she’s right behind Taurasi in any metric you look at as the second most productive player in the league.

So if you consider that with the fact that Anosike is indisputably the best defensive player in the league, it’s hard not to select her as MVP. And just in case you feel adamant about her offensive ineptitude, perhaps you should watch her – I don’t know whether it’s Jennifer Gillom or just a natural progression as a young player, but she is a vastly improved offensive player from last year, displaying an array of moves from both the post and the perimeter. In other words, if Anosike won the award, it would not be solely as a defensive player. It would be as arguably the best post player in the WNBA right now.

Of course, it’s only mid-season – all of this could change by the end and Taurasi or Pondexter could emerge as the clear candidates for MVP. But at mid-season let’s put it to the test – can you imagine the Minnesota Lynx winning even 10 games without Anosike?

Personally, I can’t.

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Rolling My Eyes At the All-Star Starters & Looking Forward to Reserves

Well…at least the fans didn’t vote Candace Parker as an all-star starter.

That’s good!

But that also means that they were actually watching the games…and still left out Diana Taurasi, Cappie Pondexter, Jia Perkins, and Nicky Anosike, without doubt the best players on the ballot at their respective positions and easily among the top ten players in the WNBA overall this season.

I know, I know…the criteria people use for all-star voting is about as rigorous as that of an elementary school student council vice president election (the student council president’s selection might be more rigorous). You know how it goes: someone gives a speech and promises pink lemonade in the water fountains or video games during recess and everybody just blindly votes for the kid. But really, it doesn't matter what the candidates say or do because ultimately, it's a popularity contest.

I get that.

But wouldn’t it be nice to publicly honor the players who have worked hard over the years to get to the top of their games with a starting spot in the all-star game?

It’s not so much that the players selected don’t belong in the game. For example, the selection that at first appears most perplexing – Swin Cash – is not that bad once you look at what she has done this season. She could make a legitimate claim for a spot on the roster…there were just at least 3 players on the ballot who were as deserving if not more than Cash.

So ultimately, I believe that everyone who deserves an all-star bid will get one. And really, look on the bright side – this just means that the coaches’ job got a lot easier. They’re busy people and since there are about 7 or 8 no-brainer selections for the reserves, at least they won’t have to take too much time to think about it…

But wait…

Maybe not thinking is what got in the way of the starters’ selections…hmmmm…

So, ok... hypothetically, if there was any interest in making sure the best players made the game, here’s who should probably be included on the roster. Instead of a strict positional breakdown, I’ll just pick one player from each position and fill in the rest of the spots with the best players available.

Some of these will merely be arguments repeated from my previous post on all-star selections, but some things – especially near the bottom of the reserves – have changed.

Eastern Conference reserves

I’ll start with the East because Jia Perkins has been the best guard in the conference this season, if not the best player in the conference overall…and she plays for the Sky, who I happen to like. Here are my picks:

G- Perkins
F – Shemeka Christon
C – Erika Desouza
1 – Sancho Lyttle
2 – Lindsey Harding
3 – Lindsay Whalen

In my original all-star selections, I did say that assuming Perkins had one starting guard spot locked up, Beard, Douglas, and Lindsay Whalen all had legitimate claims for the other starting spot. That’s still true, though I think at this point, Whalen is probably a bit behind the other three. But Perkins is clearly the best of that bunch.

What separates Perkins from Beard and Douglas is that in addition to being one of the top scorers in the East, she’s also one of the best play makers in the conference (and the WNBA). She is putting up numbers that rival those of an elite point guard in addition to being her team’s top scorer. Her assist rate of 19% is in the top tier of the league and well above Beard (9.28%, bottom third) and Douglas (12.4%, middle third). Her pure point rating (2.70) is better than that of Harding (2.40) and Whalen (1.71), easily the best two point guards in the conference.

But beyond the stats, she has single-handedly taken over games and carried her team to victory in at least two games that I’ve watched this year – at Seattle on Sunday (to end a 15-game winning streak) and in Chicago against the Monarchs. When the team is in a tight game down the stretch, the ball is in Perkins’ hands. And she brings energy on defense. Just watching her play, she has something special and is clearly the leader of that Sky team on the court. If Dupree and Fowles are in, Perkins has to be.

Sancho Lyttle could have legitimate reason to feel snubbed as well…and I did dedicate a whole post advocating for her to be a starter… but as of Monday, she and Candice Dupree are playing neck and neck, so it’s not as egregious. So she does get a spot on the team. But for the first forward position, Christon is playing so well that she deserves it.

It’s not just that Christon is one of the top scorers in the East, it’s also that she is assuming the majority of the burden for her team’s limited “success” thus far this season, while also scoring very efficiently. I’m normally not a big fan of pure scorers, but she’s doing it so well this year that she deserves credit.

The center position is where it gets tricky in the East. Desouza, Tammy Sutton-Brown, and Janel McCarville have arguably played as well or better than Fowles to this point in the season, keeping in mind that even though Fowles missed games, she has still played only one less than Desouza nad Sutton-Brown. Fowles is just the best defender of the bunch and is a force in the paint, so she deserved the start. But picking the back-up is tough.

I’m tossing McCarville out because no matter how you think about it, she’s contributing the least to her team’s success this season. She is probably the most talented center in the East, but has not exactly outperformed the competition. That leaves Sutton-Brown and Desouza and they too are pretty even. However there is one glaring, and important, difference between the two that I think matters for post players – 2 point percentage.

Desouza has been an outstanding finisher around the basket this season with a 2 point percentage of 55.65% while Sutton-Brown is at 46.73%. Given that we’re talking about centers who are otherwise quite even, this large differential swings my opinion in favor of Desouza.

Harding is the best point guard in the conference statistically no matter how you want to measure it and with her shooting percentages creeping upward, she deserves a spot.

That leaves one more spot and I think it’s a really tough choice between Whalen, Asjha Jones and Crystal Langhorne. Each one of them brings something very different to the table – Whalen brings intangibles and court leadership, Jones is one of the best scoring power forwards in the conference, and Langhorne is an outstanding rebounder. Any one of these three would be legitimate choices in my mind.

However, I would put Langhorne aside because she is really the third most important on her team behind Beard and Harding, whereas Whalen and Jones are leaders for their team, and I think that should count for something. But choosing between Whalen and Jones is difficult. There’s not a lot of separation there as neither is clearly the best at their respective position and they’re both pretty much equally responsible for the team’s success.

But I’m throwing my support to Whalen because in addition to being the leader of that team on the court, she is almost indisputably the best at running an offense in the conference, despite having an off year. And even in that off year, she’s really only second best to Harding who is having a great year. Jones is playing well, but is only an average rebounder this year, which make it tough to select her as a forward.

Western Conference

Independent of whether Taurasi will be able to play in the all-star game, she should be selected to the team. She’s having an amazing season. If the league suspends her, they can choose a replacement. With that in mind, here are my Western Conference picks:

G- Cappie Pondexter
F – Diana Taurasi
C – Nicky Anosike
1 - Charde Houston
2 – Tanisha Wright
3 – Temeka Johnson

The argument in favor of Pondexter and Taurasi should be relatively simple – they are arguably two of the top candidates for Most Valuable Player in the league on the best team in the West. Nobody in the West deserves it more than them.

After that, Anosike is the best center in the league this season, hands down. She is a top tier player in every single statistical category except usage rate and assist rate (where she’s right in the middle with a rate of 16.71%). But most importantly, she’s probably the front runner for Defensive Player of the Year – any time your center can come out to the perimeter and steal the ball from opposing guards you know you have something special. Anosike is that something special.

Anosike’s teammate Charde Houston is also having an outstanding season, carrying a large proportion of the scoring load and doing it efficiently in addition to doing a good job rebounding and taking on a large portion of the burden to win in Augustus’ absence.

Where the West gets tricky is with the last two spots. For me it’s between Wright, Johnson, Sophia Young and Ruth Riley. DeWanna Bonner looks good statistically as well and it’s hard to ignore her as a candidate for the all-star game. Of course, if Leslie is unable to play and Taurasi is suspended/unable to play, four of these players should get in making it easier to decide.

So first, Bonner is the best all-around athlete and basketball player of those five players. So why not just pick her? A very easy argument could be made that each of the other players except Riley means more to their team than Bonner. So perhaps that should eliminate Riley.

Next, Tanisha Wright is having the most productive season of this bunch, and similar to Perkins, she gets my respect for being a guard that’s putting up both scoring and facilitating numbers. In the Storm’s tough home loss to the Sky on Sunday, Wright was pretty much running the team when Bird disappeared. Kevin Pelton has nicely summarized Wright’s success already, so I won’t go on.

So that leaves Bonner, Johnson, and Young. To be honest, I’m partial to Johnson because she’s one of the top point guards in the league this season. While she and Bonner are close in terms of production or success metrics, the big difference is plus/minus – when Johnson is on the floor, she is not just producing, but the Mercury play better (+12.8). In contrast, Bonner is at -5.1. When their respective roles on their own team are considered, it would be very difficult to make an argument for Bonner over Johnson. Young is having a good season, but she is a scorer and her percentages are down thus far this season. So I’m choosing Johnson.

Looking Forward to Coaches’ Choices

Obviously, a lot of things are still up in the air in terms of who deserves to be on the all-star teams, especially with the players near the end of the roster. All of these players are in the top 30 or so in the league this season, so any of them would make a worthy participant in the all-star game.

An argument could be made that all four of those players I last considered in the West are more deserving of a spot than Cash, who is an all-star starter, but Cash is having a solid season on a good team.

In any event, it will be interesting to see how the coaches disentangle these issues and select rosters. Part of it is a matter of personal preference – I’m partial to players who produce wins and do so while doing the least harm to their team’s chances at winning. It’s a delicate balancing act, but it’s part of what differentiates great players from good ones.

Transition Points:

Fan voting is not only a WNBA problem -- it’s a problem across professional sports. I would actually be all for the players and coaches voting in the starters and having the fans vote in the reserves. The reason is simply – we can at least be sure the players have seen the players play…because they play each other. And wouldn’t it be cool to make the starting spots a peer choice award? At least the selection might have some credibility. Let the fans save their wacky selections for the bench.

In my scheme, Sacramento and Detroit would have no representation at the all-star game (in addition to Los Angeles, if Leslie is unable to play). But going back to that problem I have with focusing on players who win games, it’s hard to make an argument that a player on a cellar dwelling team is having an all-star season.

My “no-brainers” for the all-star team would also be my MVP candidates. Based on the season so far and the arguments I’ve just made above, my short list would be Taurasi, Pondexter, Lauren Jackson, Nicky Anosike and Jia Perkins. Right now, I’m going with Jackson, but of course we have a lot of season left to play.

If Perkins is not selected as a reserve, she should revive Rodney Dangerfield’s “No Respect” comedy tour (but I hope she has a better social life)...because it would clearly be a tragedy of epic proportions.



And by the way, the reference to elementary school student council races was not a manifestation of any long-held bitterness – I actually did campaign for and win a spot in third grade with some ridiculous slogan. I don’t even remember what we did except get the privilege to feel important attending.

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All-Star Balloting: Join the Write in Sancho Lyttle Movement!

WNBA all-star balloting is tough because we have not really seen enough of any player to make a decision about the best in the league.

So I have held off even thinking about it until I had more time to think about it, but with the deadline fast approaching, I feel obligated to make some sort of decisions about who to vote for and thought I would share.

However, as I was reading petrel’s analysis on the Pleasant Dreams Blog, I realized there is at least one glaring omission from the ballot: Sancho Lyttle. From what I’ve watched of the Dream, Lyttle definitely deserves all-star consideration. But then petrel made another good point for those of us who have refused to even look at the ballot to this point: there is only one write-in vote on the web ballot.

So before I unreflectively joined petrel’s Vote for Sancho movement, I had to wonder, who -- if anyone -- most deserves my one write-in vote?

This obviously complicates an already difficult decision.

Further complicating things this year is that the wisdom of crowds typically disappears during All-Star voting…and this season is particularly vulnerable to misguided fan “wisdom”. For example:

• Candace Parker will inevitably receive enough votes to skew the numbers, if not be named the starter (at guard??) in the West (similar to Penny Hardaway in the 1997-1998 season who fans voted as the starter despite playing only 19 games the entire 82 game season). Who knows if she would actually play…
• Seimone Augustus deserves votes as an honorary all-star, which will take votes away from others, but there will be a replacement there.
• Jia Perkins, Nicky Anosike, and Alana Beard will almost inevitably be overlooked in favor of bigger names
• Big name veterans like Lisa Leslie, Becky Hammon, Ticha Penicheiro, and to a lesser extent Deanna Nolan, Lindsay Whalen, and Chamique Holdsclaw are likely to grab votes simply because of name recognition.

Of course I realize that this is not supposed to be a scientific process – this is no less a popularity contest than an elementary school student council election. But it’s also a nice chance to honor the players who have risen to the top of their profession.

During last summer’s Olympics, I tried to look at stats to figure out who would have been most deserving of an all-star selection. So let’s see how those work out this year for the real thing.

What I did

I did something similar to what I did last year with my mock all-star team: first I determined the top 20 players in each conference by looking at their EFF rating (from WNBA.com), Tendex (described at Dougstats.com), and MEV. Surprisingly, a pretty clear top tier of WNBA players emerges from looking at those three metrics.

Next, I compared each of those players based on a Four Factors analysis, in addition to using defensive plus/minus and SPI versatility score.

All those stats are described here:
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/09/basketball-statistics-glossary.html

From there, I picked the best players by position in each conference, with a few of my own subjective interpretations.

Since I had statistics in front of me, I went ahead and selected starters and reserves. However, while I feel rather comfortable with my starters (except for who I would start in the East at guard), I feel much less comfortable with my reserves and really just need more time to watch games before I make a final decision. So consider the reserves tentative.

What my ballot looks like: Yes, vote Sancho Lyttle!

As it turns out, petrel and I have almost identical all-star starters – the only difference being that I would definitely have Fowles as my starting center over Erika Desouza. Defensively, I would argue that Fowles is the better player thus far this season and though not often taken into account in matters of all-star popularity contests, it tips the scales for me.

But the most important similarity between petrel and I is that by almost any metric you look at, Lyttle is one of the most productive players in the league this season and it is therefore a must that she be written in as an all-star starter.

If you do nothing else in your life this week, go to WNBA.com and vote for Lyttle. This is a serious matter that cannot go ignored.

But in case you don’t believe petrel and I, here’s some statistical evidence to back my claim:

First of all, Lyttle is among the best rebounders among the Eastern Conference’s top players with a rebound rate – the percentage of available rebounds she gets – of 10.32%, which is just behind teammate Erika Desouza’s 11.80%. Her defensive plus/minus is also solid at +4.9. But what is most striking is Lyttle’s versatility as a forward.

Not only is she shooting the ball better than any interior player other than Desouza, but she is also among the more versatile players in the East, contributing a little bit of everything for the Dream offensively and defensively. As a starter (4 games) her numbers have been up significantly in every category, so it is reasonable to suggest that she is worthy of an all-star starting spot.

Write her in!

Aside from Lyttle here are three other interesting battles for starting spots:

East center: Erika Desouza vs.Sylvia Fowles vs. Janel McCarville

If you follow the logic that Lyttle is one of the top power forwards in the East right now since being named the starter for Atlanta, it logically follows that Desouza is a center...which really complicates the choice for center.

Fowles leads the league in rebounding and field goal percentage at the moment in addition to having an Eastern conference high 13.26 rebounding rate. Fowles is also the best defensive center in the East with a defensive plus/minus rating of +10.6, better than McCarville (+6.4) and well ahead of Desouza (-2.2).

However, arguments could be made for Desouza and McCarville. Their strength is that they are both much more versatile players than Fowles. Both have the ability to shoot from beyond the paint, while McCarville’s passing ability certainly makes her a huge asset for any team. For whatever it’s worth, Desouza has a better Tendex and MEV rating than McCarville or Fowles.

All three of them struggle mightily with turnovers, being the most turnover prone players of the 41 top players I looked at by a considerable margin.

Ultimately, I have to go with Fowles because having a strong defensive center who can rebound and score inside is a valuable commodity. I like McCarville a lot, but Fowles seems to be doing the things you like to see from a center. Desouza has put together a strong season, but I’ll have to pay closer attention to her defense before making a decision this year.

West guard: Sue Bird vs. Becky Hammon

Becky Hammon is putting up great numbers so far this season, but Sue Bird is clearly among the best – if not the best – point guards in the game. Really, the choice between these two is a matter of taste – they both have a huge influence on their team’s success. Bird is undoubtedly the better facilitator, Hammon is by far the better scorer, and they both do a little of both. Right now, Hammon has the better Tendex and MEV ratings.

I am going to go with Bird here simply because I like the way she plays, but there is certainly a strong argument in favor of Hammon here. If there is one tipping point, it might be defense – Bird has a defensive plus/minus of 12.1 to Hammon’s 4.1. It’s really early to rely entirely on that number, but it’s the one thing I can point to right now that clearly lifts Bird above Hammon.

East guard: Alana Beard vs. Lindsay Whalen vs. Katie Douglas

If you go strictly by the big productivity metrics, Alana Beard is clearly one of the top two guards in the East along with Jia Perkins. However, I find it odd that when you break her game down into her contribution to the Four Factors, the argument starts to weaken and make room for both Whalen and Douglass.

The big glaring statistical weakness for Beard is defensive plus/minus – she ranks last in the East with a rating of -17.5. This comes as a surprise to me because I generally consider her a rather talented defender. However, she does not exactly separate herself in any particular statistical category either – Douglas is a slightly better shooter this season, Whalen is probably a slightly better all-around player (passing ability and rebounding separating the two), and Beard turns the ball over at a higher rate than any of the top guards in the East (13.3% of the time, currently averaging more turnovers than assists).

While petrel argues that, “You'd just have to be a blind home rooter not to pick Alana Beard of the Mystics for an All-Star start”, I’m not sure it’s that clear cut.

Even the argument that she is carrying the Mystics doesn’t give her a clear advantage over Whalen, who has carried the Sun to an identical record 4-3 record as the Mystics. Douglas could easily get the nod with it being so close given that she is a key part of the East’s best team.

For this one, I argue that any one of these three is worthy of an all-star starting spot. However, I’m going with Beard because she is one of the best on-ball defenders in the game as far as I’m concerned, regardless of what her statistics say.

If the Mystics fall apart this season, then I’ll stand corrected.

Petrel articulated the reasons for the rest of my starters pretty well already in his all-star post. I would just add that Pondexter, like Perkins, also ranked very well in my point guard rankings (even though they are not point guards, which is especially impressive), which is just one more reason that she should absolutely be all-star starters.

So here are my 2009 all-star starters:

West

G: Sue Bird
G: Diana Taurasi
F: Cappie Pondexter
F: Lauren Jackson
C: Anosike

East
G: Jia Perkins
G: Alana Beard
F: Tamika Catchings
F: Sancho Lyttle
C: Sylvia Fowles

What about the reserves?

Having spent the time crunching numbers I also have some initial thoughts about reserves, although I will come back to this around the time when coaches actually announce them.

In the West, the obvious (to me) are Becky Hammon and Temeka Johnson, both of whom are playing extremely well this season and could make a case as starters if all-world UCONN duo Bird and Taurasi weren’t already occupying those spots.

At Western center, there could be an interesting debate between Ruth Riley and Demya Walker. While Walker is probably the better defensive center based upon defensive plus/minus, Riley has a significantly better Tendex and MEV as well as a higher true shooting percentage and rebounding rate. In fact, right now, Riley has the third highest rebounding percentage in the conference behind Sophia Young and Lauren Jackson.

At forward, things get a little tougher and another person who didn’t make the ballot should be considered strongly by coaches. As mentioned above, Sophia Young is leading the West in rebounding percentage which I think gets her the nod there, despite a rather poor shooting year. Nicole Powell is having a solid season and could make a case for a spot as well, being one of the more versatile players in the conference.

But the surprise pick at reserve forward might be Charde Houston who is quietly one of the most versatile players in the league this season. She is not doing any one thing particularly well relative to the rest of the conference, but she’s doing a little bit of everything, which will likely be part of the Lynx’s success in Seimone Augustus’ absence. The question is whether she can keep that up.

The big snub right now then might be Candice Wiggins, who just won Player of the Week, but has struggled up until that point this season. Her numbers, aside from points per game, are actually very similar to Tanisha Wright for the season. However, by the time the coaches choose reserves, Wiggins could certainly move ahead of Houston, Powell, and Young as one would assume that she will have to take a larger role on the team with Augustus out.

West Reserves:

G Becky Hammon
C Demya Walker
F Nicole Powell
F Sophia Young
G Temeka Johnson
F Charde Houston

On the Eastern side, I find the reserve battles to be much less clear.

If you did not pick Fowles as your starting center, then you almost have to agree that she is deserving of a reserve spot. If Fowles is the starter, then I really think it’s a toss up between McCarville and Desouza, following the logic presented earlier. I’m going with Desouza as the reserve right now because she has been a much stronger interior player to this point in the season.

Per the discussion above, Douglas and Whalen get spots as two of the top players in the East who are not starters.

Shameka Christon is one of the top scorers game in the league right now, including shooting 48.8% from the three point line on 43 attempts and having the lowest turnover percentage of anyone among the top 21 players in the East.

The last two spots are going to be rather difficult.

Crystal Langhorne is right behind Sylvia Fowles as one of the top rebounders in the East.

Lindsey Harding is having a great season and would be a lock for the all-star game if she were shooting better.

Asjha Jones is not playing particularly well, but has been solid.

Taj McWilliams-Franklin is rebounding well, but having a rather down scoring year and a high turnover percentage.

Ultimately, I would go with Candice Dupree, who I like…and has been an effective weapon for the Sky. A potential surprise might be Crystal Langhorne, who is a strong offensive rebounder, has the second best rebounding rate in the East, and has vastly improved her scoring ability. However, she has not started a game this season...so I'm going with Jones...

East Reserves:

C: Erika Desouza
G: Lindsay Whalen
G: Katie Douglas
F: Shameka Christon
F: Asjha Jones
F: Candice Dupree

These reserve selections will of course change as we get to see them play more games…so please consider those tentative…

Related Links:

Lyttle Thriving In Starting Role For Dream (for an emotional reason to join the Write in Sancho Movement)
http://www.wnba.com/features/lyttle_feature_063009.html

Transition Points:

Rookies DeWanna Bonner and Marissa Coleman were in the top 20 in their respective conferences but neither could really make a serious case for an all-star spot. Angel McCoughtry is the only other player anywhere close to consideration. That does foreshadow my upcoming rookie rankings well with Bonner and McCoughtry the clear frontrunners. Bonner is on my radar and as we see more of her, I might actually slide her onto the Western squad over Sophia Young.

In case you are interested, Phoenix and Indiana had the most players in the top 20 in their respective conferences with five each. But really, that’s because I was feeling generous, and added Tammy Sutton-Brown who was #21 in the east.

Statistically, it would be really difficult to argue that Lisa Leslie should be an all-star in her final season…even if some serious injuries occurred. I’m sure she’ll be playing regardless as part of a WNBA send-off, but it’s unfortunate that someone who is outplaying her this season will lose out on an all-star nod.

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My Choice for MVP: Diana Taurasi

So this MVP question has been looming for weeks and I think my favorite candidate has been clear for some time: Diana Taurasi.

Although the Mercury did not make the playoffs, missed making .500, and were not one of the top 8 teams in the league, I think a convincing argument can be made for Taurasi, with both statistics and observation.

As a refresher, here's my criteria for the MVP in the form of questions:

1. Can the player be relied upon to have a positive influence on the game when they’re on the floor?
2. Can they create their own offense when the team needs it?
3. Do they use possessions effectively?
4. Can they be used multiple ways on the floor to adjust to match ups?
5. To what extent do they help their team win games?

As a twist, I only evaluated my selections for the All-WNBA team...and the ever-popular Becky Hammon. The outcome was similar in the top 3, but Taurasi pulled away from Young in this one. Let's see why.

First, a change to the process

I also changed the "Boxscore differential" piece after a brief email exchange with David Sparks. He came up with a new way to calculate player contributions to team success called Marginal Victories Produced. The formula is as follows:

Player percent valuable contributions * (team total points/(team total points + opponent total points)) * team total games played

What you get in that equation is the percentage of point production that can be attributed to an individual player. Is it skewed to base production only on points? Yes and no. Yes because obviously there's other things an offense does. But no because, hey -- points win games AND it takes defense into account by incorporating opponent total points. So it says something about how much a player's contributions contributed to actual production.

Anyway, on to the numbers.

The Numbers

PLUS/MINUS  PLAYER +/-  Sue Bird 15.3  Sophia Young 13.4  Deanna Nolan 10.7  Seimone Augustus 10.5  Asjha Jones 10.4  Candace Parker 9.6  Janel McCarville 7.8  Diana Taurasi 7.5

USAGE RATE  PLAYER USAGE  Diana Taurasi 29.49%  Asjha Jones 27.70%  Becky Hammon 26.92%  Sophia Young 26.29%  Lisa Leslie 25.37%  Seimone Augustus 25.15%   Candace Parker 24.62%  Janel McCarville 24.34%

PTS/ZERO POINT POSS.  PLAYER PTS/0 PT. POSS.  Diana Taurasi 2.61  Sophia Young 2.54  Janel McCarville 2.50  Seimone Augustus 2.49  Lindsay Whalen 2.41  Candace Parker 2.40  Asjha Jones 2.27  Deanna Nolan 2.16

BOXSCORE DIFF.  PLAYER MVP  Diana Taurasi 5.10  Asjha Jones 5.07  Candace Parker 5.00  Lindsay Whalen 4.70  Becky Hammon 4.18  Sophia Young 4.14  Seimone Augustus 3.77  Janel McCarville 3.76

SPI VERS.  PLAYER SPI VERS.  Candace Parker 293.65  Lisa Leslie 271.27  Diana Taurasi 270.53  Deanna Nolan 227.88  Lindsay Whalen 224.63  Sophia Young 224.07  Asjha Jones 219.45  Becky Hammon 206.11

What about defense?

I do think defense is important to consider for the MVP and I suggested a way to evaluate defense statistically the other week. But the problem is a player's defensive value is so difficult to quantify even with a number of statistics.

In the Mercury-Shock game on ESPN the other day, they were talking about Katie Smith's defense so I watched her the whole game. She does an amazing job defensively just because she's so strong. But it doesn't show up in the stats at all. And there are countless other players like that.

So given the difficulty of coming up with a way to assess defense and the fact that I'm already using plus/minus and MVP as proxies for overall contribution, I'll forgo the use of independent defensive stats for now.

My five picks

TOP FIVE
PLAYER	TOTAL
Diana Taurasi	46
Sophia Young	40
Candace Parker	37
Asjha Jones	37
Seimone Augustus	30

A narrative defense for MVDee

Statistically, what we see is that Taurasi has the ability to win games for her team (MVP), heavily relied upon to produce with the ball in her hands (usage), is extremely versatile, and does all of that efficiently (pts/zero pt. poss.). That she does all of that with another Olympian on the team is even more impressive.

Then there's just the fact that Taurasi is flat out spectacular at times. She fills the stat sheet. She makes big plays. She makes you say, "Wow." As for the fact that the team did not win much, we have to remember that the team was built with Taurasi, Cappie Pondexter, and Penny Taylor in mind. With Taylor out all season and then Tangela Smith out down the stretch, you could say that the reason they missed the playoffs is that they were missing 2 key contributors. That should not influence our assessment of Taurasi's performance -- she still carried that team and had them in the playoff race until the last week of the season. That alone is impressive.

In comparison, Parker is more versatile but less efficient and less relied upon by her team. It's not a bad thing, but for me it's sufficient reason to go for Taurasi instead of Parker, despite the Sparks' better team performance.

The point guard problem

However, there is (at least) one problem with these metrics. As I've said before, most of these statistics are not favorable for point guards and those that do favor point guards disadvantage everyone else. So Bird came in last and Whalen came in 8th. Most people would have them higher on their MVP lists.

Here's my way of rationalizing it -- in Bird's case, I would say that while she's been great all season, she didn't really turn it on until Jackson left. In fact, she was in a horrible shooting slump for the first third of the season. The award is given for a season's worth of work, so I think there are just stronger candidates this year.

As for Whalen, I think she is truly disadvantaged by this system because she's a player who focuses on running the system rather than collecting big stats. But she also plays with Jones who is a very strong MVP candidate as well. What surprises me though is Whalen's low plus/minus rating -- +2.8 -- compared to Jones' -- +10.4. Since plus/minus is the strongest non-box score stat we have for the WNBA, it's important and it's a little surprising she doesn't rank higher. It was also somewhat interesting to see the Sun win two games without Whalen...that certainly hurt her MVP chances.

Because we can't watch all of the games, I stand by the notion that statistics are helpful in evaluating MVP candidates, despite a few quirks. With or without statistics, Taurasi would be my pick this year. Hopefully next year she'll give us a repeat performance and take the award without any caveats...if not for that perky Parker...


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My All-WNBA Teams

Well the season is almost complete and now it's time to hand out those post season awards before the playoffs. I'll start with All-WNBA teams because I haven't done those before...and they will get me a step closer to figuring out my MVP candidates.

When I look back at the past All-WNBA teams I don't see any positional requirements so this is truly my top 10 players from the season, plus an honorable mention third team.

I'm going to use statistics to justify, but not determine, my choices. I'd be interested in seeing other people's picks and their justifications as well. The three statistics I looked at were Model Estimated Value, plus/minus, and efficiency rating. Rather than going strictly by the rankings, I just used these to sort out who deserved to make the cut.

** The plus/minus numbers used here are from games through September 7th.

All-WNBA Second Team

Deanna Nolan

There should be no doubt that Nolan deserves All-WNBA recognition. Even though I'm not a big fan of the Shock, I really enjoy watching Nolan play. She's one of those players that goes about the game in an almost business-like fashion just doing what she has to do to help her team win, whether that be scoring or distributing the ball.

She didn't put up particularly gaudy statistics this season -- statistically, Jia Perkins had a better season. But she was right within range of the top players in every category. One thing does stand out however -- she shot 46% from the field. That's phenomenal for a guard who takes as many contested jump shots as Nolan does.

The reason I put Nolan on my team is that I don't think you can disregard the intangibles she brings to the Shock in terms of leadership and consistency. It comes down to this question -- if it comes down to one shot at the end of the game, who am I going to trust with the ball? Nolan can create her own shot off the dribble from anywhere on the court, make smart decisions with the ball, and make the right pass if she can't get off a shot.

Janel McCarville

As I've written before, it's hard not to like McCarville's game. She's tough inside, she's smart, and she's shown the ability to face up her defender and take her to the basket. She ranked 9th in MEV and 9th in efficiency rating which pretty much sealed the deal for me. She's also consistently been one of the best defensive post players statistically.

What I like best about her though is her passing ability. Having a post player that can make good decisions with the ball and be a central element of the offense is a huge asset. She's first among centers in assists per 40 minutes which means she is doing a relatively good job of finding others from the post. And again, you can't disregard the intangibles -- the fire and passion she brings to the court has been invaluable on a number of occasions. She's just a great player.

Sue Bird

For all the talk about her late season rise, she's consistently been at the top of the plus/minus rankings all season. And with Lauren Jackson out after the Olympic break she just picked it up a notch. Through last week, her plus/minus rating was +20.7.

Bird is a combo guard in the true sense of the word who can easily shift between scoring and distributing depending on what her team needs. It's been impressive to see how well she made the switch from a pure distributor to a scorer in Lauren Jackson's absence.

She could easily be the most dominant player in the league with her skill set, but instead chooses to pick her spots and make her teammates better. Perhaps Jackson's injury was just a nice little reminder of just how good she is.

Ashja Jones

The best way to describe Jones: dominant post player. She has an array of post moves and seems to score almost any way she chooses to. She had the 7th highest plus/minus rating and the 9th highest efficiency rating.

I didn't really take notice of Jones till the second half of the season, possibly because I was always so focused on Lindsay Whalen. But while Whalen has been described as the engine that makes the team go by Mike Thibault, it's quite clear to me that they would not be where they are without Jones.

Lisa Leslie

Leslie is in my mind the Defensive Player of the Year. She anchors LA's defense which has been one of the best in the league all year and when she leaves the game there's a noticeable difference. But she's also been huge offensively combining with Candace Parker to create a deadly high-low post game.

Statistically, she was 8th in MEV ratings and 4th in efficiency rating. It's hard to keep her off the first team, but there are so many great players there, that Leslie fell to second

All-WNBA First Team

Lindsay Whalen

If it weren't for Sue Bird's second half performance, Whalen would be by far the best point guard in the WNBA this season. She does everything -- she can score, distribute, rebound, and plays the angles so well that she's hard to stop. Like Bird, she tends to spend a lot of time trying to set up teammates which makes her appear passive, but as a point guard, that's a valuable asset.

In terms of the numbers, she's 4th in MEV and 5th in efficiency, making her the most productive point guard in the league. In my opinion, she could be putting up better numbers but in Connecticut's system individual performance seems to be subordinated to team performance so she often just comes down the court and gets her team into the offense rather than trying to immediately make a play. Like Bird though, it's not a bad thing -- she just has the ability to shift from a distributor to scorer whenever she needs to do so.

Seimone Augustus

She's a scorer who seems to be able to get to wherever she wants on the court. Any shooting guard who can score 19 points per game on 47% shooting is impressive. And like Nolan, those are mostly contested jump shots.

But what's most impressive is that for a player who is such a volume scorer, she can also defend and make her teammates better. Her plus/minus rating of +18.4 is second only to Sue Bird. She also ranks 10th in efficiency rating and 12th in MEV. She's quickly becoming one of the best all-around players in the league.

Sophia Young

Easily one of my top MVP candidates, she's a player who gets the job done quietly, but does so as one of the most efficient and productive players in the league. She ranks high in MEV, plus/minus, and efficiency rating. She's an athletic inside-out post threat who can also defend well, although she's occasionally giving up a few inches to her opponent. It's difficult not to like what Young has done this season really.

Diana Taurasi

Love her game. I have already written about why I think she's arguably the best player in the league here.

Candace Parker

Duh.

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All-Rookie Teams: Where Does Sylvia Fowles Fit?

Although the MVP race has generated a lot of debate, the Rookie of the Year race was pretty much decided after Candace Parker’s first game of the season.

In fact, I’d say that at least the top 3 rookies – Parker, Candice Wiggins, and Sylvia Fowles (despite injury) – have been obvious to most people for some time. In the world of my opinion, there’s a second tier of equally obvious candidates: Nicky Anosike, Tasha Humphrey, Crystal Kelly and Leilani Mitchell.

In other words, although the top of the order is pretty well decided, there’s very little room at the bottom which should make for some tough decisions for voting members.

But the real drama in rookie award giving this year is whether Sylvia Fowles has done enough to earn a spot on the All-Rookie team and if so, whether she deserves recognition as a member of the first team.

On talent alone, it’s clear that Fowles should make it. But given that she will have unfortunately missed half of the season, it would be perfectly reasonable to leave her off the team.

So what would I do? The statistics haven’t changed much since my last rookie rankings during the Olympic break, so here’s my opinion on who should make the rookie team…using the statistics to support my arguments.

Second Team

Alexis Hornbuckle:

Hornbuckle has been one of my favorite rookies this season ever since I saw her grab 14 rebounds against the Mercury early on. She’s not the flashiest player, but she’s gritty, plays excellent defense, and has the tools to be an excellent offensive player.

Statistically, her greatest asset – defensive anticipation – has led her to second place in the WNBA in steals per game, which is an impressive feat for a rookie. Offensively, she has a lot of skills, but isn’t exceptional in any one area. But one thing worth pointing out is that she’s fifth among rookies in assist ratio, which underscores an important point about Hornbuckle – she’s a great team player and will be an excellent piece for the Shook as they try to take back the WNBA title.

Amber Holt:

The question I have to ask about Holt is whether she’d be a candidate for the All-Rookie team if she was playing for another team. But this pick is as much about potential as it is production for this year.

Statistically, the thing that stands out about Holt is that she has not had a great shooting season. Her true shooting percentage of 49% ranks her 13th among rookies and her VCR ranks 14th among rookies, although it is above league average. But what I find interesting about Holt is that she has all the instincts to be a great offensive player eventually.

She usually gets to where she wants on the court and is able to create shots for herself even though she has yet to become a consistent scorer. But most impressive about her statistically, especially in comparison to Hornbuckle, is that she generally makes good decisions with the ball – she is among the rookie leaders in assist ratio and turnover rate.

In other words, aside from her streaky shooting, she doesn’t waste a lot of possessions. And as an aside, that makes her one of the few shooting guards in the league who has a positive pure point rating, which is a testament to her future versatility. It will be interesting to see how she performs for the Sun in the playoffs.

LaToya Pringle:

Pringle is another personal favorite of mine. She’s super athletic, plays hard, and could develop into a defensive presence over time.

Statistically, she’s one of the best help defenders in the WNBA statistically and has shown the ability to score as well. She leads all rookies in offensive rebounding rate and is sixth in true shooting percentage. She’s a player that has the ability to extend possessions on offense and disrupt opponents defensively.

Crystal Kelly:

WNBA.com finally gave her the recognition she deserves in their most recent rookie rankings, placing her fifth on their list. I’ve thought she deserved it all season so it’s good to see her finally getting national recognition.

But the thing that makes her most impressive is probably the thing most overlooked about her game. She’s leads the WNBA in free throw per 40 minutes and free throw rate. That doesn’t seem that significant until you consider how she gets those shots. She does an extremely good job of making decisive moves to the basket and drawing contact to get herself to the free throw line. Once she refines her post moves and gets more experience in the league, she’ll be a huge offensive threat.

Statistically, she’s been one of the most efficient rookies all season. She has led rookies in true shooting percentage all season and she’s been among the top five in VCR. So why not on the first team? As efficient as she is, other rookies have been more productive. And that’s not a knock on her but a testament to the talent of this rookie class.

Sylvia Fowles:

So given the way the other rookies in the league have played, I decided to put Fowles on the second team. And it’s not just because she hasn’t played half the season. It’s also the fact that she hasn’t been quite as productive as some of the other rookies in terms of her rate of production when she’s been in the game.

Obviously, that’s no reason for concern in terms of her future – we just really didn’t see her come into her own until the Olympics. Part of the problem was that she hasn’t ever really looked comfortable in the Sky’s offensive scheme, which has hurt her ability to produce effectively.

Next year when she has more time to adjust to the Sky’s system she’ll be a lot more productive and hopefully more consistently involved in the offense. So although she’s definitely one of the most talented rookies, her output this season hasn’t quite been good enough to be considered ahead of the more productive rookies this year. It’s just hard to reward someone for half a season when others have played a full season, but I see second team as a reasonable compromise.

First Team

The top two should be obvious: Candace Parker and Candice Wiggins. The other three might be debatable.

Leilani Mitchell:

I might be a little biased here, but I think there’s a reasonable argument to be made for Mitchell to be on the All-Rookie team. The problem is that we don’t have good statistics to evaluate point guards so her numbers don’t stand out. But she’s definitely been the best point guard of any in the rookie class, one of the best backup point guards in the WNBA and already one of the best pure facilitators in the league.

Her run in July when she had 20 assists and only one turnover sealed the deal for me. She has great instincts to create scoring opportunities for others. The one question about Mitchell is whether she’ll be able to produce consistently with increased minutes or if she’s just the product of an extremely deep team with a methodical offensive system.

Regardless, it’s hard to deny Mitchell’s talent and she’s one of the better rookie stories this year after being almost cut by the Mercury.

Tasha Humphrey:

Humphrey hasn’t been nearly as efficient with the Mystics – she’s taking more shots and missing more – but her season as a whole has been pretty amazing. With the Shock she was 3rd in true shooting percentage, a 38% three point shooter, one of the most versatile rookies, and the second most productive overall. She was able to do it all.

I haven’t seen her play with the Mystics, but something has changed drastically. Maybe she’s being relied upon more as a second option instead of the fourth option she was on the Shock. Maybe the Mystics schemes are just less well-suited to her game. But since she played most of the season with the Shock, it’s hard to deny that she deserves consideration for the All-Rookie first team.

Nicky Anosike:

For this season, Anosike has been extremely productive for the Lynx. Not only has she been a consistent starter, but she’s also leading the league in steals right now…as a center. That’s impressive not just for a rookie, but especially for a center.

She’s somewhat raw right now in terms of having strong post moves, but she runs the floor well and has a nose for the ball. The Lynx have put a good team together and it will be interesting to see how she and Wiggins develop over the off-season.

Transition Points:

A quick note to critics of the statistical ranking of players:

The statistics help us evaluate and compare players, but shouldn’t necessarily determine our opinions of players. But given that we can’t possibly watch every single moment of every single player’s season (especially in the WNBA when so many games go untelevised), statistics can help us identify things that we otherwise wouldn’t notice because of unavoidable limitations. We’re all human and statistics can help us as we make judgments and try to develop informed opinions.

Relevant Links:

The Most Outstanding Rookies: How do we compare rookies…fairly?
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/08/most-outstanding-rookies-how-do-we.html

Basketball Statistics Glossary
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/09/basketball-statistics-glossary.html

Other posts about rookies
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/search/label/Rookies

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