Defense Defines Sparks Victory Over Silver Stars

If what you like about basketball is high-octane offense, elegantly executed offensive sets, and great scoring performances from stars, then the Los Angeles Sparks’ 76-68 victory over the San Antonio Silver Stars was probably agonizing.

However, there is something equally compelling about the level of defensive intensity that both teams played with last night that seems to add to the drama of transitioning from the regular season to the playoffs.

The type of defense played last night is not only indicative of a level of aggression, grittiness, and tenacity not normally associated with women’s sports, but also makes the anxiety and sense of urgency of the playoffs start to become tangible.

It’s easy to write off last night’s game as merely an example of poor basketball by pointing to the 16-16 first quarter or the Sparks’ abysmal second quarter in which they shot 28.6%. And as with any game there were missed assignments or mental lapses.

Instead, I suggest that the defining element of both halves was the defensive tone that was established early and particularly caught my eye on a play in which Silver Stars center Ann Wauters made a stop on Sparks forward Candace Parker.

It’s rare to see a Rethinking Basketball post focused on defense, which is somewhat ironic considering that I was a defensive specialist for most of my non-descript organized basketball career. As such, this season I’ve been keeping track of defensive statistics, no matter how futile a cause it may seem.

Defense is probably the most difficult thing to analyze in basketball because there really is no reasonable way to assess it without knowing a) the team’s scheme, b) the overall strategy that the scheme is part of, and c) what is expected of each individual within that strategy.

For example, there are times when a team will live with giving up one thing in hopes of shutting down another. Play to play it might look like “bad defense” on the part of a player when it reality it’s a reasonable strategy to win a game given the personnel. What might seem like a lapse in one situation, may be a stroke of brilliance in another.

The Silver Stars used a creative defensive scheme in the first quarter to keep the Sparks off balance, playing a man defense that functioned something like a zone when players switched.

For example, with 8:55 left in the first, Sparks point guard Noelle Quinn set up the offense for the Sparks and initiated the play by dribbling around a Parker screen on the right wing. Normally on a screen such as that against a man-to-man defense, one would expect a simple exchange of defensive assignments in which Becky Hammon who was guarding Quinn would stick with Parker and Sophia Young would switch from Parker to Quinn.

Instead the Silver Stars made a much more complicated move. Young did step up and stop Quinn, who was clearly setting up a play to Parker, who was rolling to the basket. But rather than Hammon picking up Parker, Ann Wauters – who was sagging way off Lisa Leslie -- picked up Parker and Hammon picked up Leslie who was at the top of the key.

Confusing? Yes, and it’s just as confusing if you have to play against it. That’s the point.

And the Silver Stars did it all game to great effect. It wasn’t until halftime adjustments were made that the Sparks were able to really turn a corner.

Of course, part of the Sparks second-half turnaround was a matter of running more of a fluid motion offense rather than standing around trying to merely exploit their size advantage in the post. Nevertheless, what stifled the Sparks repeatedly in the first half was the Silver Stars defense.

But what actually got my attention is when the uber-athletic Parker actually went to make a move against Wauters on the same play.

Parker took two dribbles with her back to Wauters, subtly giving shoulder fakes to try to catch Wauters off balance and make a spin and drop step. When Parker finally did turn and make a drop step, Wauters did not budge and was able to bother Parker’s shot and send it off the far side of the rim strong.

Obviously, this was a combination of good scouting and good defensive strategy that made that entire sequence happen. But the reason it grabbed my attention is that those are the type of defensive plays that don’t show up in the box score and often go unnoticed.

In the second half, it was the Sparks’ defensive intensity that defined the game flow as the Sparks just used their size and physical advantages to prevent the Silver Stars from doing much of anything – finding scoring opportunities, making interior passes, or even cutting through the lane.

Moreover, the Silver Stars didn’t get to the free throw line once in the third quarter, which was a result of the Sparks defense, regardless of whether the game was called perfectly (no basketball game in history ever has been to my knowledge).

Both sides played physical in the post throughout the game and most of the time it was simply a matter of being disciplined enough to hold one’s position, resist the temptation to bite on fakes or wilt at the sign of any potential contact, and being willing to take a hit and not back down.

And despite the obviously strong defensive play exhibited by both teams, the Silver Stars finished the game shooting 44.6%, while the Sparks shot 50%, including 70% in the second half on 19-29 shooting from the field.

When you combine that type of gritty play with strong offensive play you get what I consider the best of basketball.

It’s not just about the pretty highlight reel plays that excite us on the most basic level. It’s the ongoing chess match from play to play of each team trying to one up the other – on both sides of the ball – and constantly making adjustments, forcing their opponents out of their comfort zone, and improvising as a unit to try to tough out a win.

It’s not the prettiest thing for fans to watch, but it’s good all-around basketball that I have great appreciation for. It seems to give the game an edge that draws you into the competition and helps the player’s passion come alive.

And for a junkie like me, that’s beautiful.

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Toliver Helps Sky to Victory: "Sometimes as a Young Player All You Want is a Chance."

After hitting a free throw with 7:11 left in the fourth quarter to increase her career high scoring to 24, Chicago Sky rookie point guard Kristi Toliver stood at the free throw line with a huge grin.

It was hard to say what exactly she was grinning at because it looked like she was grinning in response to someone off camera.

So let me recklessly read into her grin a little: it had to be a relief to play so well after recording a DNP-CD in Los Angeles against the Sparks.

Toliver finished the game with a career-high 25 points, going 5-8 from the three point line, and played a key role in a huge 21-4 run that propelled the Sky to a 96-77 victory over the New York Liberty.

In a way, I suppose you could say it was a "boring" 25 points. As the commentators discussed entering the fourth quarter, a number of those shots were literally loose balls falling into her hands and her shooting almost indiscriminately over the outstretched arms of defenders.

But even in seeming like one of the most accidental 25 point performances the league has seen, her shot is just so beautiful. Her shot looks almost effortless and has an almost perfect arc before falling softly through the net. Dare I say she has one of the prettiest jump shots in the WNBA?

During the third quarter, as New York Liberty rookie post player Kia Vaughn was on a roll on her way to her own career-high 12 points, Mary Murphy said, "Sometimes as a young player all you want is a chance." And really, the statement seems to apply more directly Toliver than Vaughn, who has not had as many explosive performances during her rookie campaign.

It's hard not to wonder sometimes if Kristi Toliver has truly gotten a chance to have the rookie season people expected of her when she was drafted #3 in the 2009 WNBA draft. Of course there might be reasons for that which are beyond the reach of us outside observers.

But the strange thing is that aside from a turnover problem that's no longer any worse than her rookie point guard counterparts who are receiving a lot more playing time, Toliver has performed well in spurts when she enters the game. In fact, she has arguably outperformed teammates who take her time.

If the Sky had firmly secured a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference or at the very least shown consistent play this season, perhaps this would be a non-issue. However, as things stand now, it's difficult to make sense of the situation in Chicago.

Talent-wise, there's no reason Chicago should not be a playoff team. The fact that they're not should raise questions. If everyone who watches the team is perpetually wondering what the *bleep* are they doing?, then perhaps there's reason to believe things aren't quite right.

I would have remained silent on the Sky because...well...they defy explanation moreso than any team I've watched this season. It's not like the Sacramento Monarchs who are aging and injured or the Liberty who seem to be a poorly constructed and managed team. This team has too much talent to not be in a better position.

And Candace Dupree's comments to the media the other day don't exactly help assuage doubts

"I just feel like people have no motivation, Dupree said. "This is the first time in franchise history we could potentially make the playoffs and I don't feel like everybody plays like that every night. We've got to pick it up."

Doesn't that sound like a red flag that something really is not quite right with this team?

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Patiently Watching the Sparks: "The Olympians Have to Figure Out How to Play Together Every Night"

A good friend of mine is a LA Lakers fan and for years I – a Golden State Warriors fan – have had to listen to him whine and complain about how inconsistent and discombobulated the Lakers are…as they end up in the NBA Finals or infinitely closer to anything resembling success than my beloved Warriors.

So thankfully, he’s not a (huge) LA Sparks fan…because then he’d actually have something legitimate to whine about.

The Sparks’ 72-68 victory over the Washington Mystics last night was a perfect example of a situation where I would actually have to feel sympathy for the suffering of a LA fan.

And that's hard.

But that game was just brutal on so many levels.

Both teams entered the game on the outside of the playoffs looking in and there were times when I wondered if either team really even wanted to play in the post-season at all.

Just when one side seemed to make a play that would catalyze a shift in momentum, something goofy happened – dumb foul, turnover, a flurry of contested jump shots – that killed the momentum. And no, it did not shift the momentum to another side…it was like a momentum vacuum.

And it’s a special kind of bizarre to watch the Sparks struggle like that.

The Sparks have four Olympians on the team – center Lisa Leslie and forwards DeLisha Milton-Jones, Candace Parker, and Tina Thompson – all of whom have a post game or at the very least are capable of posting up players who defend them. When they make the effort to slow the game down and make entry passes into the post – as they did for a stretch of about 2 minutes 30 seconds in the third quarter when they briefly help a lead of 11 points until Leslie left the game – they do well.

But then they just stop.

And then I am literally sitting at my laptop, arms folded and rolling my eyes wondering why I’m watching a team full of post players take jump shots…over and over again. They shot 38% in the final quarter, which seems paradoxical for a team with a strong post game.

But that wasn’t even the worst part: the worst part didn’t come until the fourth quarter when I had to watch a team with four Olympic front-court players essentially play a two person game with guards Noelle Quinn and Marie Ferdinand-Harris in a tie game with less than two minutes left.

What saved them was making 10 of 12 free throw attempts in the fourth, which were partially a result of attacking the paint.

It’s inexplicable…right?

We could waste our time pointing fingers at various players, coaching, or the refs for making last night’s game so excruciating to watch. But ultimately, it does seem to come down to the one thing that everybody associated with the Sparks keeps saying ad nauseam – this team needs time to gel…and unfortunately, they have not done that to this point.

Of course, to some fans that type of answer is unsatisfactory because after all, they have four Olympians! They were destined to win this year! It’s the point guards, the point guards!

WE ARE LA – WE WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!

But how reasonable is it that this team would be playing good basketball right now?

Parker is still getting her legs back and trying to find her stride since starting her season late on July 5th. Leslie returned from an extended injury on August 4th. Once Leslie returned, guard Betty Lennox got injured.

All of that means that in addition to not having a pre-season together, they also have not even had a consistent healthy roster until August 11th.

That means the Sparks have only played 4 games with their full complement of players and have had no extended practice time together yet.

Therefore, they have not only had adjust to shifting lineups and new players adjusting to the system, but also the 2008 WNBA MVP slowly playing her way back into shape.

In those four games, they have gone 2-2, not losing by more than 6 points.

Are they meeting expectations? No. Most people had them winning a championship.

But is it really any one player’s fault? No.

Anybody who has played or coached a game of basketball knows that it is a game in which team chemistry/cohesion/togetherness/kumbayaness matters. The track record for these teams of all-stars across sports, and particularly basketball, is not so good.

Putting a group of players used to being the number one option -- or at least a primary option -- on one team and expecting them to magically work out roles is ridiculous, especially without practice. It’s not a fantasy league or all-star showcase…like, real defense is played and stuff.

Yes this team has a ton of talent, but does anybody really believe this is a well-constructed or balanced team?

And from what I watched last night, that lack of cohesion was the root of their problems – they are terribly inconsistent partially because they can’t seem to get themselves into a rhythm with one another. Even when they find a strategy that works, there doesn’t yet seem to be any confidence in that strategy…and thus they just move on to the next haphazard option.

With two minutes left in a tight game they all stood there looking at each other. There was no movement. No attempt to support the point guard – yes, it is the weak spot on this team of Olympians – and really no effort to make a play. So with the shot clock ticking, of course Ferdinand-Harris or Quinn had to take jumpers.

But how on earth can a team win like that?

They can’t. And they won’t win consistently until they establish what works well for them and what roles they each have in that strategy.

That’s common sense. The players keep saying it. Coach Michael Cooper keeps saying it. I buy the line. Mainly, because it’s common sense.

Once they get a chance to play more than four games with one another, perhaps I’ll change my tune.

Maybe it is coaching. Maybe it’s the point guard situation. Maybe Parker, Leslie, Milton-Jones, and Thompson are just a terrible combination. Right now we really cannot say. The WNBA season is simply not long enough for the Sparks to manage these circumstances.

All we can say is that it takes time for teams – even the uber-talented – to come together and play well as a unit. The Sparks are no exception.

And wasn’t it my friend from LA wailing about something similar in the summer of 2004 when the Hall of Fame saturated Lakers lost the NBA Finals to a gritty Detroit Pistons team that everybody thought was far inferior?

But I do hope this whole coming together thing happens before the next time I choose to watch the Sparks play.

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Sky Offer Glimpse of a Bright Future In a Stunning Victory Over the Storm…at Key (!!)

Two of the three people I chatted with at Key Arena last night prior to the Chicago Sky’s surprising 86-81 victory over the Seattle Storm expressed similar thoughts with the news that Sylvia Fowles would be returning to the Sky’s lineup:

Well, hopefully they’ll be able to make a game of it.

On the court warming up was a young, sputtering Sky team that had lost four in a row. In their last two games, they traveled to Phoenix for the privilege to get trampled by a Mercury stampede and then got discomfited at home by the Indiana Fever.

There was no way a Sky team that looked so lost and confused would compete with Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird with those crazy Key Arena fans shouting at them.

So it’s a good thing that Sky team that got routed at home by the Fever chose to stay in Chicago. We may never know what they did to that old Sky team, but it’s doubtful that anybody will miss that disorganized and demoralized team.

There are a number of interesting themes and story lines that one could take from last night’s game in addition to Fowles’ return.

Sue Bird was missing in action, going 1-10 from the field. The Sky shot a scorching 63.2% from the three-point line. And a large part of that hot three point shooting was Kristi Toliver, who had a breakout game, keeping pace with fellow rookies Renee Montgomery and Courtney Paris who also formally introduced themselves to the WNBA this past week.

However, the overarching theme that struck me as I watched the game was that the Sky actually looked like a coherent basketball team, like they had actually played together before or practiced a few plays.

For the first time this season, I was not asking that same tired question: What exactly are they doing? That goes beyond Fowles’ return or Toliver’s hot shooting. It was like a shift in mindset or philosophy occurred after the loss to the Fever.

If the Sky played like they did last night all the time, they would be atop the Eastern Conference.

If the Sky continue to play that well, they will be a threat to make some noise in this year’s playoffs.

And if the Sky’s young players continue to develop individually as they become a stronger unit, they will be a perennial contender for a long time.

So what on earth happened?

Really, both teams played well overall last night, the Sky just played better. I say that acknowledging that the Storm did seem a little flat and confused on offense and had erratic defensive rotations. However, the fact is that they played well enough to stay within one or two shots of a team that shot 60.8% from the field. Which probably makes this a particularly tough loss for the Storm – as Sue Bird said, this was one they could have had and let slip away.

Part of the story for the Storm is that although Bird had an off game, Tanisha Wright played extremely well. She played by far the best game for the Storm and at times, the best player on the floor for either team. The most impressive element of her game on display last night was her ability to set up her teammates.

While Wright is not necessarily an exceptional ball handler, she is a very decisive ball handler and she attacks holes in the defense extremely well when she sees them open up. That allows her to get to the rim extremely well, but also set up open teammates when she draws help defenders.

Last night, she not only scored 18 points on 6-9 shooting, but also had an assist ratio of 32.34% and a pure point rating of 5.20, numbers that resemble those of the league’s top point guards. She was not only looking to distribute the ball to others, but she was doing it extremely well. While there is not really an adequate substitute for what Bird brings to the game as a point guard when she’s on, Wright did an admirable job of keeping the Storm in the game.

Given how well Wright played and that Jackson turned in a decent performance, if the Storm had gotten a better scoring performance from Bird, they could have won this game. Aside from Jackson, they went 1-10 from the floor as a team. From that point on, they didn’t shoot below 50%, shooting 73% in the second quarter. Their assisted field goal percentage was also relatively high, staying well above 70% after the first quarter.

The Sky were just far more consistent and kept the pressure on the entire game.

There’s a reason why I’ve said the Sky are my favorite team: they not only have all of the pieces in place to be a successful basketball team, but those pieces are extremely talented.

Two post players whose skills complement each other perfectly to put an enormous amount of pressure on the defense. A MVP candidate and one of the best all-around players in the league. And a number of perimeter players who can shoot the three, especially with Toliver playing well. All they needed to do was pick a system – and a rotation -- and run it consistently to maximize their talent.

In statistical terms however, what makes the Sky potentially great is that they have all the elements of the Four Factors covered as well as the Synergy rating metric that I added as part of my “Team Dynamics ratings” last year. While the key factors statistically for the Sky last night were shooting and synergy, the most important thing was the way they played the game.

First, they were looking inside to both Dupree and Fowles. In fact, it almost caught me off good when they went to Fowles right away, getting her the ball on four of their first six possessions. Yes, oddly that’s not the norm for this team – getting the ball their 6’6” center.

But last night, they chose to establish the post game early and work outward from that. In doing so, they put pressure on the Storm to constantly rotate and open scorers all over the court. And to Fowles’ credit, she was great at passing the ball back out of the post if she couldn’t make anything happen herself. Even though she didn’t score and didn’t record a lot of assists, she was responsible for setting the tone for the game and getting the offense going in the beginning.

But second, in order for an offense to work through the post, the guards have to throw it into the post. Post entry passes sometimes seem like a lost art, but the Sky did an extremely good job last night. In fact, one of the things that really made their offense look different last night is that they were actually looking to get it into the post.

They often run a dribble-weave type play where the three perimeter players weave around the three-point line passing the ball to each other. Normally it seems as though they get so caught up in just running the play – weaving in and out and handing the ball off – that they don’t look to actually create scoring opportunities. The main thing they did well last night was to actually recognize scoring opportunities when they arose and actually use the weave to keep the defense off balance and find passing lanes rather than just randomly running a weave.

By using their passing to break the defense rather than just looking for one-on-one opportunities, the defense was forced to rotate. Another quick pass forces a second rotation and by then the defense is scrambling. Keep moving the ball and eventually a scoring opportunity opens up. Having a player like Toliver who has a beautiful quick release only enhances the offense because she made the defense pay for poor rotations.

However, even though it should be clear by now that I am partial to maximizing ball movement, sometimes at the end of close games it just comes down to having someone who can take over the game. For the Sky last night, it was Jia Perkins. By my Credit numbers, she was the third most important player behind Dupree and Toliver. And while Dupree and Toliver definitely played better over the first three quarters, having Perkins on the court down the stretch was essential for the Sky.

Down two points with 4:48 left, Perkins just decided to take over. She scored 10 consecutive points on a mix of three point shots, drives, and jumpers. Then she drove and got an assist setting up a three for Dupree. When you have a player who you can trust with the ball in their hands for 13 consecutive points, it makes end of game strategy really simple – get the ball to Jia and run the offense. Perkins might not be the top candidate for MVP this season, but I cannot think of five better candidates than her for the award at this point in the season.

A strong post game complemented by strong perimeter shooting and a MVP candidate who can single-handedly drag the team across the finish line – if the Sky continue to follow the blueprint they followed last night, they will give the Fever a strong challenge for the Eastern Conference title.

Related Links:

Wright Fills Important Role for Storm
http://www.wnba.com/storm/news/wright090713.html

Transition Points:

There will be more on Toliver tomorrow…and watch out – Chen Nan too. (Click here to see those rookie rankings)

Fowles left the game late in the fourth quarter after a collision and did not return. I cannot find an official report anywhere, but I overheard coach Key talking in the tunnel after the game and he was saying that it was a dislocated shoulder that they popped back in and should be ok. Hopefully it does not become a long-term problem.

Tanisha Wright is quietly putting together a very good season and has been an outstanding complement to Sue Bird. I was looking at some league stats the other day and in addition to being in the top ten in assists this season, she has been among the most productive players overall. She probably will not get an all-star bid, but she deserves serious consideration.

Lauren Jackson played well in the first half, but was less effective in the second half. Part of that is that she got at least three scoring opportunities in the first half off offensive rebounds and three point play opportunities (although she missed the free throws). For some reason, she just got less scoring opportunities in the second half, getting off only four shots.

Janell Burse is also having a remarkably productive season. It’s hard to point to one thing she does well, but she just really does not make a whole lot of mistakes. She is one of those players who seems to have a sense of what she can do well and just puts herself in position to do that.

Someone recently suggested that I build my point guard rankings around watching Sue Bird closely and figuring out how to evaluate point guards based on her performance. Actually, Sue Bird's shooting slump at the beginning of last year was what inspired the point guard rankings last year. And what stood out last year also stood out last night – Bird is at her best when she is in attack mode. When she gets in a zone carving up defenses and creating for others, she is almost unstoppable and it makes the Storm almost impossible to beat, even if she isn’t shooting well.

That is where my basic claim about point guards comes from: playing point guard, moreso than any other position, is all about decision making rather than purely measuring points, assists, and field goal percentage. To the extent that we can find ways to measure the effectiveness of their decision making on the floor, I really think we can come up with valid ways to quantify what a point guard does well. The fact is, when Bird is in attack mode, Bird is hands down one of the best decision makers in the game (I believe Penicheiro in her prime was probably the best ever).

Watching Bird’s defense was also useful to reinforce a point I (and others) have made repeatedly – it’s almost impossible to quantify defensive performance. Bird was guarding Toliver and “responsible” for a few of those threes Toliver made, but it was unclear what exactly was going on for the Storm defensively on many of those shots, especially in the second quarter. It looked like there was just confusion about who was supposed to rotate where and on at least two occasions, Bird looked like she was dropping off Toliver and nobody rotated to pick her up. Without knowing what they were trying to do, it was difficult to know whether Bird was to blame or someone else.

Because every point guard is part of a particular defensive scheme, it’s really hard to come up with a way to compare them that makes any kind of sense.

I forgot to check my camera’s batteries before the game. Or let me rephrase – I checked them, but didn’t bother to walk the two blocks to the store to buy batteries before entering the arena. So no pictures. Idiot.

Key Arena offers Thai food now and I decided to splurge on one of those dishes rather than go for the overpriced hot dog. This was a big ordeal for me – hot dogs and beer just seem to be necessary for any live ball game. However, the Thai food and Coke did me well and was much more filling (and healthy?) than a hot dog and beer.

They showed Part 2 of the Storm history series last night and I really enjoyed that too. The best part was when they showed a clip of Lin Dunn responding to a reporter who asked if the Storm would be trading Sue Bird after she was drafted. Her concise, confident, precise, and simple response drew a loud response from the crowd -- "No."

A quick note on Jenny Boucek's firing from Sacramento: Baffling. As in I can't even wrap my head around how inexplicable it is. Fortunately, Mechelle Voepel is in a good position to make the argument that the decision goes beyond "baffling" to "senseless". I'll co-sign. Check out her blog post if you get a chance.

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Renee Montgomery's Breakout Game and the Minnesota Youth Movement

Those who watched the Minnesota Lynx’s 96-94 victory over the Washington Mystics witnessed a special performance from Renee Montgomery that is not fully captured in the standard game summary.

By now you’ve probably heard that she re-entered the game with 3:14 left in the 4th quarter and proceeded to score 12 consecutive points and 18 of her season-high 21 points over the course of seven minutes between the 4th quarter and overtime.

Her game has been variously described as “electrifying”, a “scoring rampage”, or my personal favorite from the Minneapolis Star Tribune: “Rookie guard Renee Montgomery, who usually provides a spark for the Lynx off the bench, was a flamethrower.”

And it was all capped by some of the best post-game comments I have ever heard – simultaneously honest, humble, and humorous – including a clarification for those who might consider Montgomery “on fire” (or throwing flames) last night: "I didn't really catch fire, I just shot layups. It wasn't like I was on fire from (three-point range)."

However, the ability to get to the rim eight times in seven minutes at the end of a close WNBA game is no small feat. And though it was apparently the same play, she wasn’t exactly scoring in the same way.

The first was a drive to the basket to earn two free throws within seconds of entering the game. After a missed jumper, the next two were drives for contested layups and three point plays. The next started with a nice crossover move from the wing.

In overtime, she continued to focus on getting to the rim. The first came off a steal and fast break, which earned her another three point play opportunity. The other two were drives early in the offense in which she just went right through the defense.

Montgomery is talented no matter how much she attempts to minimize her performance. The Mystics did give her different looks after the first few drives. She just continued to dominate the game. She can handle the ball extremely well, use screens, and she can find holes in the defense.

If Montgomery’s season goes anything like this game – a slow awkward start punctuated by an absolutely dominant game-changing finish – she should be right in the thick of Rookie of the Year conversations.

Why?

Because Montgomery has something intangible that makes you want to believe she’s destined for greatness.

In Jim Peterson’s comments about Renee Montgomery on the Lynx Weekly radio show, he discussed how he had his reservations about her because she’s small and hasn’t been practicing well but that when the game starts she’s “a gamer”. He discussed some of the intangible factors that make her great as well:

When you go 39-0 that’s a resume builder…Some of us were thinking about DeWanna Bonner, but you know the specialness of Renee Montgomery, the fact that Geno Auriemma who’s had so many great players at Connecticut was so high on her and elevated her to the top of his list in terms of all-time favorite players [snap]…boy that just spoke to us a lot…

She’s one of those gals that in huddles in practice – you know when Jen is talking about this that or the other – she’s front and center. And she’s looking up at the coach. And she’s paying attention. You’ve got her full attention. And that sets a tone too. She’s an old soul and I think that speaks well of her and what she’s all about.

The whole package – the clutch performance, the personality, and the practice ethic – is what will probably make Montgomery great, in addition to being in a system that is coherent and structured enough to bring out the best in her. And a large amount of credit for that should go to Jennifer Gillom.

Jennifer Gillom is the clear frontrunner for Coach of the Year

Gillom has the Coach of the Year award all locked up as far as I’m concerned. Barring a complete collapse in which they lose the remainder of their games and miss the playoffs, she’s done a masterful job of keeping this team together when it had every reason to fall into utter chaos.

But she did something else last night that I love: she stuck with her talented rookie in the clutch and put her confidence in her. So often this season I’ve seen coaches pull “hot” rookies from a close game in favor of a veteran, likely thinking that the veteran savvy is necessary to win games. There is some logic to that.

However, there is also a stronger pedagogical logic to what Gillom has done with Montgomery – instilling confidence in her talented rookie by not only putting her in the game and giving her the opportunity to succeed, but also taking the time to actually design a play that maximizes her strengths and actually allows her to succeed. If this team is going to win games without Olympian Seimone Augustus, they are going to have to maximize the remainder of their talent. For Gillom, that started from the moment she took over the team, as Nicky Anosike, Charde Houston, and Roneeka Hodges are all improving and contributing their unique strengths to the team.

It’s those little things that separate the great coaches and organizations from the mediocre ones. This season, it’s separating the top teams in the conference from the fringe playoff teams. And it’s why sometimes, even as outsiders, we can make reasoned assessments of coaching.

Coaching is not just about x’s and o’s, it’s also fundamentally about inspiring people and finding ways to help them succeed. I can’t think of a coach who’s done a better job of that this year than Gillom, especially given these extremely trying circumstances.

Getting the best out of a young, talented team

There was a point in the overtime period when Gillom had Montgomery, Candice Wiggins, Charde Houston, and LaToya Pringle in the game for the Lynx. To win a close game with that many young players in down the stretch not only speaks to Gillom’s coaching ability, but also just how talented this team is…especially once Seimone Augustus comes back next season.

Add to that mix Nicky Anosike and Quanitra Hollingsworth and this team has the makings of a dynasty. Yes, they are making their share of mistakes. But they are not only learning how to play professional basketball and play as a coherent unit, but they’re learning how to play successful, winning basketball. That experience will go a long way to helping them become a great team in the future.

Related Links:

Full transcript of that lovely Renee Montgomery post-game interview
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2009/07/renee-montgomerys-hilariously.html

Transition points:

Crystal Langhorne and Charde Houston (in addition to Renee Montgomery) were actually major reasons I wanted to watch this game. Both are top candidates for the Most Improved Player award and both could also make legitimate claims to an all-star spot at their position.

Last season, Langhorne looked like an athletic, but awkward center who would be something of a long-term project. This season, she’s playing as though we were just sleeping on her. More impressive than her league-leading offensive rebounding prowess so far this year, is the array of offensive moves she’s added to her repertoire. She’s scoring off drives, with double post moves, and hitting contested shots in the paint. She almost looks like a different player.

Charde Houston seems to just have put it all together this season and become more consistent. And by consistent, I mean close to dominant. Although Nicky Anosike and Renee Montgomery have gotten the headlines for winning last night’s game, Houston deserves a large portion of the credit as she did a little bit of everything – scoring off drives, scoring from the perimeter, getting offensive rebounds. She is an extremely impressive player and if she continues to improve along with the rest of this Lynx core, they will be a force for years to come.

The WNBA game is improving, even if it is struggling financially. I swear that just between this summer and last the talent level is increasing and as a result the games themselves are getting better and better. If there is any silver lining to contracting a team and shortening rosters it is that each team is probably more talented, player for player, than they’ve been in a long time.

It was my intent to post rookie rankings today, but after Montgomery’s performance last night and tonight’s upcoming match between the Chicago Sky (Kristi Toliver, Chen Nan) and the Phoenix Mercury (DeWanna Bonner), I decided to hold off and get one more look. Over the past few I’ve had a chance to see all the top rookies and have thoughts, but figured one more game of analysis wouldn’t hurt. Unfortunately, last night was the only time I’ve seen Marissa Coleman play, so I’ll have to wait until another time to give her a complete analysis. But I will say this – statistically, she might not be out of the running for Rookie of the Year.

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How The Mercury Beat the Sparks in LA: From 0 to 22 in About 5 minutes 30 seconds

The Phoenix Mercury’s impressive 104-89 road victory over the Los Angeles Sparks last night was one of those games that simply cannot be appreciated by reading the box score or even the play by play alone.

It’s not just that the Mercury posted a season-high 36-point third quarter, that they managed to out-rebound the Sparks 40-31, or that they ran off 11 straight points to start the fourth quarter. It’s how they did it that is noteworthy.

Although the game ended up a blow out, it was going back and forth until about three minutes left in the 3rd quarter when DeLisha Milton-Jones was whistled for a touch foul on DeWanna Bonner that forced Jones to the bench with her fourth foul.

After Bonner made the two free throws, the Mercury were up five. Then the shifting tide of momentum that the Sparks had seemingly held off for the previous three and a half minutes, swung completely in the Mercury’s favor.

What the Mercury did to the Sparks during the ensuing five and a half minute stretch spanning the 3rd and 4th quarters really cannot be measured, quantified, or even fully articulated without watching it.

To describe it as the Sparks “falling apart” would be to completely ignore that the Mercury got into a zone in which they seemed to be optimally coordinated as a team while almost effortlessly taking control of the game.

Commentator Tracy Warren may have described the sequence of events best at the end of the third quarter after Cappie Pondexter set up Bonner for a three to put the Mercury up 10.

You could see with that three a little bit of deflation from the Sparks. They’re feeling like wow. We’re can’t stop Taurasi, we’re having trouble with Pondexter, and now you’re us the rookie Bonner is gonna hit from outside. Tough matchup problems for the Sparks right now in the third.

That was before Cappie Pondexter took an outlet pass without about 6.5 seconds left, beat Shannon Bobbitt down the length of the court, and hit a seemingly ridiculous floating jumper from the wing with 1.2 seconds left to put the Mercury up 11.

That’s demoralizing. And sometimes that just means more on the court than anyone off the court can understand rationally.

What the Mercury did to the Sparks during that stretch was not just Mercury basketball at its best, but it was an almost perfect realization of what a fast paced offense should be. All the elements of what it takes to run successfully were on display: defense (to prevent the other team from making shots), rebounding (to initiate the fast break), and high percentage shots (to keep the pressure on the opposing defense).

When a team with three all-stars (yes, Temeka Johnson is having an all-star season) gets in that kind of zone, it’s difficult to imagine anybody stopping them…even if they are on the road.

From an analytical standpoint, the Mercury’s play during that condensed period of time is perfect for a case study of what the Mercury do at their best. However, it also reinforces the argument that the Sparks are simply not a running team but a team designed to thrive off of their Olympic frontcourt. And once they get all their pieces back in game shape, a team like the Mercury might not even get the opportunity to run them like that.

A tale of two halves

Obscured by the final outcome of the game is that the Sparks played a very strong first half despite Candace Parker returning to play her first game after pregnancy and Lisa Leslie still sidelined by injury. Forget whatever you thought about the Mercury prior to the season – the Sparks were playing neck and neck with the best team in the West without a full roster. That’s impressive.

In the second quarter, when the Sparks built a six-point lead, the Sparks completely neutralized the Mercury – the Mercury only shot 26.7%, made four unforced turnovers, and gave up five offensive rebounds. The Mercury were forced into a number of contested shots or bad decisions just from the aggressive defense of the Sparks. With 3:22 left in the second quarter, I wrote the following note to myself: “pho falling apart”.

Granted, the Sparks needed a miracle shot at the halftime buzzer to take a 5 point lead, but they played well and kept the Mercury at bay.

But of course a five point lead is not what one would normally consider “safe”.

With 8:56 left in the 3rd, the Sparks were up 8 after a layup by Kristi Harrower. What allowed the Mercury to cut the lead was the Sparks settling for perimeter shots or getting contested shots inside. Meanwhile, the Mercury were starting to heat up, getting open looks from the three point line within the flow of their early offense and getting to the free throw line 12 times. They were getting easy points.

And that was before the Mercury started demoralizing the Sparks.

How the Mercury can demoralize an opponent

Last season I noted that the Mercury were best when they started moving the ball. While Taurasi can certainly single-handedly take over games, when she can get help it makes the Mercury extremely difficult to defend, as described in the aforementioned Warren quote. However, both ball movement and rebounding are what made the Mercury’s run possible.

The Mercury’s six third quarter assists matched their assist total from the first half. That’s not including at least four other “lost assists” – missed open shots or plays on which a player got fouled on a shot after receiving a pass -- that I counted. When the Mercury get into their uptempo zone, it’s not just one player leading the way, it’s a team effort.

There are at least three key reasons for the Mercury being so effective in the open court this season. First, the addition of Temeka Johnson has been perfect for the Mercury’s system. She not only has the speed and ball skills to get out on the break and find players in rhythm, but she can also spread the defense by hitting perimeter shots.

Second, the addition of Bonner was perfect for this team. Bonner is able to beat everyone down the court for easy baskets, which only enhances the Mercury attack. However, another key asset Bonner brings is offensive rebounding. Bonner had five offensive rebounds in the game, three of which came in the third quarter.

The Mercury as a team are not known for their rebounding, but they out-rebounded the Sparks 25-10 in the second half. In the third quarter, they grabbed 57% of all the available offensive rebounds, which is dominant. That means they were not only getting easy baskets and wide-open shots, but also extending their possessions and giving themselves second chances to score. Bonner’s tenacity in the paint despite her slight build was a large part of that.

Third, the other major “addition” to the Mercury is Cappie Pondexter’s improvement as a facilitator. It is well known that Johnson and Taurasi are playmakers with great court vision, but Pondexter has been an outstanding playmaker in her own right this season. Whereas last season she spent a lot more time looking for her own shot, often literally bulldozing her way to the basket with her head down, this season, she's looking to set up her teammates. Last night, she recorded a pure point rating of 5.74 to lead the team.

That means that not only do opponents have to keep up with the pace of the Mercury, but they also have to find a way to defend a team with three perimeter players that can facilitate plays for all the other moving parts like Bonner, Le’Coe Willingham, and Tangela Smith.

It’s not easy.

However, most important is the Mercury’s defense. As coach Corey Gaines said in the pre-season, they are employing the Rover defense differently this season, choosing to alternate between that and a man-to-man defense. With about 4:30 left in the third, they briefly started alternating between the two defenses which worked to slow the Sparks down just as the Mercury were starting to heat up.

The Sparks looked as though they were having trouble recognizing exactly what defense the Mercury were in. When they play the Rover effectively and use it as a tactic to sway the tempo rather than their base offense, they further keep their opponents on their toes.

In the last 2:58 of the third quarter, all those pieces came together at once, along with Taurasi being Taurasi. That is near unstoppable.

Of course, with Leslie and Parker healthy, one would imagine that the Mercury could not possibly have been so dominant on the boards and that would definitely have changed the face of this game. Not to mention the fact that Milton-Jones was out for much of this third quarter stretch after picking up her fourth foul.

But at the end of the third quarter, this is the Mercury you saw: working extremely well together, scoring from all over the floor, and limiting the Sparks’ scoring opportunities on the defensive end. That team is going to be competitive any night of the week.

Anatomy of a fourth quarter run: The Sparks’ search for someone to step up

However, things just worsened for the Sparks at the beginning of the fourth. And what became obvious at that point is that the Sparks are still trying to figure out their roles on the team.

Warren mentioned that Tina Thompson has said that she would defer to Leslie and Parker as the leaders on this talented team. Lennox is a good scorer, but usually inefficient. Milton-Jones was clearly the third wheel on last season’s Sparks team.

In other words, when the Sparks still had a chance to get back in this game despite the demoralization process, they didn’t know where to look to get out of the rut. There is a leadership void without Leslie and Parker at full strength.

Meanwhile, Taurasi and, to a lesser extent, Johnson had a field day.

However, as I was watching I took note of who was taking the shots for each team. Here’s an excerpt from my notes in the 4th quarter until the 6:30 mark when the Sparks found themselves down 22:

LA to Hayden
Pho to Taurasi 83-70
LA to Quinn for 3
85-70: TJ for 2, open free throw line J
Lennox missed j
TJ to Bonner, fast break lay 87-70
Mercury switching zones
DMJ bad throw in, Swanier fast break lay + ft 1-1, 90-70
DMJ to, Taurasi fast break lay, 92-70
LA timeout

While the Sparks are looking for Vanessa Hayden, Noelle Quinn, or Betty Lennox, the Mercury have the ball in the hands of Johnson and Taurasi and getting layups or free throws. I’ll take Johnson and Taurasi in that contest any day. Warren made the following comment late in the fourth quarter that sums up what happened to the Sparks.

This is a team that has shown they’ve got multiple offensive weapons and unless someone can stop them all, they’re going to have their hands full.

There is no way the Sparks could have matched up with the Mercury last night, given their personnel. But again, it’s important to reiterate that if the Sparks had one of their designated leaders on the floor during that stretch, the play by play would look a lot different.

Last night’s game should not Spark panic in L.A.

However, the easiest thing to focus on in the Sparks’ loss is the fourth quarter when they looked completely discombobulated and without leadership. One could imagine that the 11-0 fourth quarter run is what motivated Milton-Jones’ post game comments (quoted in the LA Times), that seemed to have a sense of urgency about solving the Sparks’ problems.

As a team that has already played nine games and had their coach question their effort, the Sparks know their own rebuilding effort can't take too much time.

"We cant keep patching up the leaks," said Sparks forward DeLisha Milton-Jones, who tied her season high with 15 points but was scoreless in the second half.

"We need to re-pipe the system with copper piping to make sure there is no more damage later on. Right now we're suffering a lot of water damage and our foundation is slowly cracking. But we have to find ways to get wins, bottom line."

While Milton-Jones is probably correct that there are leaks that need to be fixed in the Sparks’ foundation, one could conceivably modify the metaphor – it’s as though the Sparks’ foundation of Leslie and Parker was removed altogether and the water is just creating a mudslide in the dirt below.

This season’s team was put together with the assumption that they would have Leslie and Parker playing together in the post. Without that, they will have an extremely difficult time finding wins. Until that point, it’s difficult to critique the Sparks, coach Michael Cooper, or the personnel.

They have to remain patient and looking forward to establishing their system so that they are ready to win once Leslie and Parker return.

Warren’s comment with 50.3 seconds left speaks directly to that point:

Now I think It’s a different game if you get a healthy Lisa Leslie and a healthy Candace Parker and you see what happens in August and September.

The Sparks will still have to fight their way into the playoffs and likely need help…but if they do get in with a healthy roster, they will absolutely be dangerous.

Transition Points:

BobsScoutingReport made a post on Rebkell saying that Nikki Teasley will be working out with the Sparks today for a possible signing. One would assume that means the Sparks will be dropping a point guard. That brings up two obvious questions: 1) would Teasley add anything to their existing group? and 2) if so, which point guard should go?

First let me say that I think Teasley's performance in Atlanta was inconsistent, but not nearly as horrific as some Dream fans make it out to be. But anyway...

My vague general opinion: it depends on how the Sparks want to play.

A more specific analysis:

If they're looking for a distributor who can protect the ball, Kristi Harrower is by far the best of the bunch -- she has an outstanding pure point rating of 9.55 and an assist ratio of 37.05...while only turning the ball over on 3% of the possessions she uses. Quinn is by far the odd person out if they want a distributor.

If they're looking for a point guard who can distribute and score, Teasley is the best shooter of this bunch with a 56% true shooting percentage, but again Harrower is more efficient -- she has a 2 point shooting percentage of 45% and scores 2 points for almost every possession she ends with a missed shot or turnover. Quinn is not nearly the playmaker of the other three, but is by far the best shooter, with a 52% true shooting percentage and a 54% 2 point shooting percentage.

Quinn's scoring ability makes her the best player overall according to any overall metric I use and has the highest plus/minus rating. In addition, coach Michael Cooper has said that he likes her versatility. So she's probably not going anywhere.

That leaves Shannon Bobbitt without any obvious statistical value to the team over any of the other players. However, while she is probably the least effective scorer of the bunch, she's by far the quickest player, as she's able to get the ball up the court quickly, distribute the ball efficiently (pure point rating of 7.16) and apply pressure defensively. And hmmm...isn't she friends with Candace Parker?

The only thing that Teasley offers is a higher true shooting percentage than any of the current Sparks point guards at 56.68%, which is among the best of any point guard in the league.

So if it comes down to the Sparks choosing between Bobbitt, Harrower, or Teasley to fit their style of play, I would probably opt with maintaining team chemistry and just not signing Teasley -- I'm just not sure what she adds to what they already have. But if they're looking for (very little) additional scoring and size, while not losing much on the distributor end, waiving Bobbitt and signing Teasley does make sense. Either way, I'm not sure it's a move that would substantially improve or hurt this team.

Fast break points: Phoenix 23, Los Angeles 4

Warren commented on Phoenix’s style of play with about 2:20 left in the 4th quarter: “And you wonder how long Phoenix can keep this pace up? They really go about 7, maybe 8, deep – but typically about 7 players deep. So in August, can they still keep up this high-powered offense? They’ve done it the past three years.” So an interesting tidbit from last night's game: Phoenix used nine players for significant minutes. Those four bench players put up 37 points to the 22 points of the Sparks' significant bench players (Wisdom-Hylton didn't come in until late in the game).

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Jia Perkins is Making Her Case As an All-Around All-Star Starter…and Sky Lead Guard

It must be nice to have the best guard in the Eastern Conference playing for your team.

Especially when you choose to sleepwalk through about 35 minutes of a game and need someone to bail you out at the last minute.

Jia Perkins strengthened her case for being voted into the 2009 All-Star game as a starter, hitting big shots down the stretch to lead the Chicago Sky to a 74-70 win over the Sacramento Monarchs in the UIC Pavilion last night.

However, as good as it must feel to add a game to the win column, once again, the victory cannot leave much for the Sky to feel proud of.

The Sky blew an early 10 point lead, went into the fourth quarter tied, and were down by five late in the fourth before Jia Perkins returned to the game after an awkward fall to give the Sky the necessary jolt of life at the end of the game.

In search of their first road win, Sacramento managed to stay in the game by playing typical Monarchs basketball: playing hard, crashing the offensive boards, and playing a rather methodical, if sloppy, offense. But it’s not really that the Monarchs “crumbled down the stretch” as the Sacramento Bee reports – it’s probably more accurate to say that they reduced it to a chaotic mess of turnovers, free throws, and scattered defense…and Jia Perkins lifted the Sky above the fray.

Aside from the 2nd quarter in which the Monarchs shot 58% on 7-12 shooting from the field, the Monarchs never shot above 33% in any other quarter. Their 21.86% turnover percentage for the game probably didn’t help them much either, though the Sky returned the favor with a 21.51% turnover percentage of their own.

So if the Monarchs never really had complete control of the game, that begs the same old question that people should be tired of hearing from Rethinking Basketball:

What exactly are the Sky doing?

Again, just to contextualize the question: as a distant observer that is not privy to practices, video sessions, or pre-game chalk talks, I do not necessarily expect to fully understand what a professional basketball team is doing play to play. Ultimately, we will never really know what’s going on with any given team if we are not a player or other paid employee.

Nevertheless, it’s obvious when a team is just completely disorderly. But yes, as an outsider, I wasn't with them step for step at every moment: many times the Sky players seemed to be asking, “What are we doing?” about a few seconds before I thought to ask, “What are they doing?”


When they aren’t standing around waiting for one of their post players to take their defender one on one from the wing, they have their guards ignoring their post players and forcing up contested jump shots or drives to the basket that end with blocked shots. And when they did try to settle down and run something, they looked just as confused.

On one play in particular during the third quarter, the Sky brought the ball upcourt, Erin Thorn had the ball at the top of the key, saw Sylvia Fowles on the left block, and zipped a pass right into the crowd. After the play, it looked like Thorn was gesturing to Fowles to say that she expected Fowles to pop out a little on the wing… but Fowles didn't...and Thorn threw a pass to nobody. Who's ever fault it was, it was one of many moments where the Sky’s dysfunction was so evident that you almost had to feel sorry for them.

It’s not really that they started playing better as a team at the end of the game either – Perkins bailed them out by playing aggressive defense, making plays for teammates, and hitting big shots at the end when the team needed it.

So despite the victory, the enduring question, “What are the Sky doing?” still stands.

Basketball is ultimately a team game. And usually, good teams have systems.

Right now, the only system the Sky have going for them is Jia Perkins. So the question becomes, how should they best utilize her talent?

And right now, Perkins is carrying the Sky as a scorer and distributor.

So if for some reason you don’t already think Perkins is an all-star, let me just rehash the facts.

By almost any metric you look at – EFF, MEV, plus/minus, Tendex, WARP, whatever – Jia Perkins is the best guard in the East, if not one of the top guards overall in the WNBA. She gets it done offensively as a scorer and defensively, putting pressure on the other team’s lead guard and picking up skills that shift the momentum of games at critical moments.

Upon returning to the game after an injury scare in the third, Perkins put the breadth of her skills on display in the final minutes of the game, putting pressure on the Monarchs’ guards to help create turnovers, running the offense, getting out and scoring on the fast break, hitting a key three, and hitting clutch free throws to ice the game.

Another way to quantify Perkins’ contribution to the Sky is by looking at David Sparks’ metric for assigning credit to players for their contribution to their team’s final score (that is described in depth here...I also used it for Team USA here). For this particular game, Perkins deserved 15% of the credit for her team’s success, with Candice Dupree and Sylvia Fowles coming next closest hovering right around 10%.

However, while Perkins gets most of the credit for scoring, another major contribution she makes to the team is running their offense. Whatever it is the Sky do with the ball, Perkins does it best.

She has the best point guard numbers on the Sky and compares very favorably to other WNBA point guards in her ability to run a team. She recorded 8 assists last night, had a pure point rating of 10.75 and an assist ratio of 31.74%...all while scoring 17 points on 46.15% shooting from the field.

Those are extremely impressive numbers for someone who most people consider to be primarily a scorer – she is making extremely good decisions with the basketball setting up her teammates in addition to scoring.

So not that it matters who is officially named point guard with Dominique Canty and Jia Perkins in the backcourt, but Perkins is the best lead guard on this team and the team actually plays better when she is doing everything – scoring, passing, and playing defense. While some people fear that giving a scorer distributor responsibilities, that does not seem to be the case with Perkins.

In their 5 wins prior to last night’s game, Perkins had a pure point rating of 4.79, an assist ratio of 21.35%, and a turnover ratio of 7%. In their three losses, she had a -3.48 pure point rating, a 15% assist ratio, and a 14% turnover ratio. In other words, without establishing a strong correlation, we can see that there is at least some sort of pattern of Perkins functioning as more of distributor in the Sky’s wins in addition to scoring.

This is clearly Jia Perkins’ team right now and if they are not going to have a highly structured system that utilizes their post players, it seems that they should be putting the ball in Perkins’ hands and letting her work her magic.

Transition Points:

Perkins is currently #7 in WNBA.com’s MVP race, but I think an argument could be made for her to at least be ahead of almost anyone not named Lauren Jackson. She’s having an amazing season, her team is doing well, and she is coming through for her team whenever they need her. If that’s not the definition of a MVP, I don’t know what is.

I actually watched last night’s game to get a look at Kristi Toliver, but apparently she was not feeling well last night. I hope she is able to get healthy soon.

Mouthpiece Sports recently asked Kristi Toliver about whether she can be the Derrick Rose of the WNBA. Aside from the fact that they are both rookie professional basketball players and reside in Chicago, I don't think the comparison is really fair to either player.

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Toliver Impresses in Victory Over Dream...so...Who Should Start at Point Guard for the Chicago Sky?

Where should I even start with the Chicago Sky’s 99-98 victory over the Dream?

If you have any sort of affection for the Sky, yesterday’s win against the Dream was actually painful.

It was one of those exceptions to the cliche “a win is a win” -- sometimes even a win is best construed as a learning opportunity.

You may know that the Sky are my favorite WNBA team. So I was particularly excited to watch Kristi Toliver’s progress on the court after having stared at her statistics over the last few days.

However, as I watched the Sky yesterday morning while trying to focus on Toliver, I couldn’t keep from getting extremely frustrated about the same question I wondered last year abut the Sky: what exactly are they doing?

Hmm…that might sound harsh. So let me clarify….

It’s not so much that I expect a team to justify what they’re doing to me, a random WNBA blogger. Nor should I really expect to understand a professional basketball offense will be totally transparent to fans who haven’t spent time watching practice or reading at playbooks. But panic is one of those feelings that comes through pretty clearly even through a webcast, both in watching the coach patrol the sidelines and watching the players trying to create seemingly arbitrary answers to a worsening problem.

Just before the start of overtime, WNBA LiveAccess commentator Art Eckman said the following about the game just before the start of overtime.

…the kids’ day has been delighted with a surprise. The surprise is a team could be down 18 points and come back and take a two point lead and then take the game into overtime.

LaChina Robinson may call it a valiant effort on the part of the Dream and, yeah, it was. But I call it a massive collapse on the part of the Sky.

And coincidentally, I would say that the Sky’s collapse yesterday was partially related to the object of my observation: the point guard position. I entered the game wondering who should start at point guard for the Sky after comments on a previous post from KT #7 suggested Toliver should start over Dominique Canty. What I think this game demonstrated is that before answering that question, the Sky need to figure out some sort of identity that they can depend on when things get rough.

The collapse

After Armintie Price made a jump shot from the wing at the beginning of the 4th quarter, the Sky were ahead by 18 points. With a minute left in the game, Atlanta had not only erased the deficit, but taken a two point lead.

So what happened?

Really, there are two connected explanations for the collapse – one is evident just by looking at the play-by-play, the other is less obvious from the stats or play-by-play: the Sky’s apparent lack of a coherent offensive system to rely on when things get tough.

If you’ve spent time watching basketball at any level, you probably know that momentum is a really strange phenomenon, which is not only about strategy or ability, but also the mindsets of the teams involved. It is generally a convergence of the losing team feeling like they have nothing to lose and the winning team either getting arrogant, playing not to lose, or starting to question the strategy that got them the big lead to begin with.

But pinpointing the shift in momentum during this game was much simpler.

About a minute after a three point play by Jennifer Lacy cut the deficit to 15, KB Sharp entered the game for Toliver. I thought to myself, “Hmmm…that’s weird. Has Sharp even played yet this game?” The answer was no, she had not played. But it probably didn’t seem to matter at the time – the Sky clearly assumed the fourth quarter would be a smooth garbage-time coast to a victory. At that point, the Sky had the following lineup in the game: Sharp, Price, Shyra Ely, Chen Nan, and Erin Thorn.

Within the next minute the lead was down to 12.

So after the Sky emptied the bench and watched the Dream’s confidence grow as the momentum swung their way, they then brought Jia Perkins, Sylvia Fowles, and Candice Dupree back in the game with 7:09 left. But essentially that was a panic signal. But I’m not going to explain the loss entirely psychologically. Something else happened…or didn’t happen.

It would be easy to look at Sharp’s -9 plus/minus rating and put the blame on her. But a) she did not insert herself in the game for the first time after sitting all game and b) three starters re-entered the game with a 12-point lead.

When the starters re-entered the game – Canty came in at 5:38 – things didn’t get better. They were scrambling, taking contested jump shots and trying to force plays that weren’t there. The ball movement that helped them successfully find shots to that point stopped, despite having three guards on the floor (Perkins, Canty, and Sharp/Toliver). Even if we ignore the fact that they had not played a three guard lineup all game until the fourth quarter, the bigger issue here is that after building an 18 point lead, they suddenly looked lost.

Normally, one might say, well it was a lack of execution. But that assumes there is something in place to execute. So what is it, may I ask, that the Sky are even trying to execute? I can never figure that out. And it really doesn’t matter who is in the game if the team doesn’t have a common understanding of what’s supposed to happen.

System: "a method or set of procedures for achieving something."

There is certainly value to having a looser approach to basketball rather than a rigid system that limits players. And that appears to be the way Sky coach Steven Key likes to run the Sky. In fact, Toliver even said that at the beginning of the season in an interview with Slam Magazine.

“He’s a really nice guy, first and foremost, and he’s really fun to be around,” said Toliver. “He lets players play and that’s one of the things I like a lot. He’s not going to do a lot of X and O type of stuff because he wants to get up and down the floor and let you use your strengths. He knows that this team is balanced inside and out and he knows where to get people into the right spots to be successful. He knows how to get the best out of his players.”

Fun, loose, fluid, and player autonomy are nice when you have a veteran team that has experienced success in the past and knows exactly how to bring it about. Or for a team that has Kobe Bryant (+ all-star cast) or Michael Jordan. But at the end of a game when the momentum is swinging in the opponent’s direction, a young team that has yet to play in even one playoff game together needs a little structure. They don’t have that implicit sense of how to win games together yet, by no fault of their own. They just haven’t been together long enough.

And that was painfully obvious at the end of yesterday’s game – there was no structure with which to fall back on when everything started to feel chaotic.

The Sky rely very heavily on jump shooting and guard penetration. Dupree is often getting points taking baseline jumpers – which she is pretty good at – and Fowles will get an occasional touch if she happens to be open off a pick and roll or a result of the defense shifting in response to guard penetration.

Really, it sometimes looks like they are relying on some sort of dribble drive offense, which is somewhat effective, but assumes that you have multiple players who can get to the basket from the perimeter. Really, the Sky only have two players who have demonstrated the ability to themselves to the rim for easy shots or assists: Canty and Perkins.


Given that, it would seem to make more sense to do the exact opposite and focus on setting up their two talented post players and surround them with three point shooters, like Toliver and Brooke Wyckoff. Spread the defense, give the post players some space to work off of each other and move the perimeter players around the gaps.

People might say that a post-oriented system would not work for the Sky because Fowles is not the type of aggressive personality that demands the ball. However, it’s really difficult for me to forget that Fowles was not just solid at the Beijing Olympics last year, but Fowles was arguably Team USA’s most productive player. It’s not that she cannot be a more productive player, it’s that Team USA found ways to put her in position to succeed and the Sky have not.

But I digress..

So back to the original question about who should start at point guard for the Sky, how can we really answer that question if there is no clear system for the point guard to run? I don’t think anybody could really come up with a definitive answer, but I think yesterday’s game did give us a good sense of their options.

Status quo: Dominique Canty

Canty offers something that I highly value in a point guard: the ability to drive and put pressure on the defense. She’s not the most efficient scorer off the dribble, but she’s among the top point guards in the league when it comes to getting herself to the line. After missing her first three free throws in the first quarter, she went 7-7 the rest of the way. And in the beginning of the game, her ability to drive and get to the line was really giving the Dream problems.

Typically my knock against Canty is that she’s not particularly effective at getting her teammates involved within the “offense”…but that was not really the case in this game. She had a pure point rating of 3.70 for the game, which is solid. Her assist ratio, though not stellar was above average at 24.19%.

These numbers are well above Canty’s numbers for the season thus far, but from this game, she played the point guard position well just in terms of her ability to run the team and distribute the ball. And if it is some kind of dribble drive the Sky want to run, then it makes sense to start Canty.

However, I would argue that the dribble drive does not actually play to the Sky’s strengths because they really only have two players who can execute that type of offense effectively.

So hypothetically, it might make more sense to start Toliver at point guard next to Perkins and spread the defense to create space for Fowles. And Toliver gave us a glimpse of what she could do yesterday.

Supporting a shift in strategy: Kristi Toliver

I admit that I have a bias in favor of point guards that are able to break down the defense and create offense for others. And so when considering Toliver as a potential starter in the WNBA, that’s what I’ve been looking for.

And although she has not demonstrated the ability to get deep into the lane, she would actually be an outstanding option to run a post-oriented offense next to a guard like Jia Perkins who could drive to the basket.

If you did not watch yesterday’s game, what might stand out to you is that she’s shooting the ball better and getting a decent number of assists. When the Dream tried to run zone defense, Toliver also showed that she could easily be used as a zone buster as well, further supporting the idea of using her to spread the court. She can get her shot and has an array of jab steps, fade aways, and a relatively quick release that help her as a scorer.

However, what impressed me most was that she did a much better job of moving the ball in this game. It doesn’t really show up in her numbers (pure point rating of 0.00 and turnover percentage of 16.6%) but she looked much more patient in her decision making, swung the ball across the court against the zone very well, and took advantage of scoring opportunities when they came to her.

With 12 seconds left in the third quarter, she ran a beautiful high pick and roll with Fowles, drawing the defense toward her and zipping a perfect pass to Fowles for the layup. It was more of a defensive lapse by the Dream, but Toliver recognized it quickly and made the play happen.

Toliver is not by any means going to be a traditional “pass-first” point guard, but she has shown the ability to score and make plays for others as she has gotten more comfortable with her teammates. My initial question was whether she could run a team rather than looking primarily for her own scoring and I think she’s starting to show the ability to do that. The next question is whether she can do it consistently.

Then again, maybe wondering if she or Canty is the better starter at point guard is the wrong question altogether.

Jia Perkins may be the best point guard on this team

Last season when Dominique Canty was injured, Perkins demonstrated the ability to run the team extremely effectively. And contrary to what you might think, it’s not just because she’s a great scorer. She has all the ball handling, passing, and intangible ability that you might want a point guard to have.

Yesterday, she recorded 6 assists and 0 turnovers for a pure point rating of 11.11. In my latest point guard rankings, she ranked in the top five. She is one of the most productive guards overall in the league and has the ability to score efficiently. Furthermore, she’s the type of player who can put up near triple-double numbers occasionally.

Putting the ball in her hands and allowing her to make decisions in an open and loose offense, seems like a good bet. The only downside of putting her at point is that it might detract from her ability to score. But in the right type of system, she’ll be able to find her scoring opportunities while also getting the ball to her teammates…as she managed to do yesterday.

If she were in charge of making plays with Toliver next to her expected to score and both of them focused fundamentally on creating easy shots for Fowles inside and Dupree on the baseline, the Sky could be an extremely difficult team to defend. Then depending on the matchups, Canty could come off the bench either to get more penetration in the key or continue looking to the post while Toliver and Wyckoff spread the court.

Of course, this just reinforces my original point – given that there is no clear point guard starter on the Sky, they need to work out their system before they make that personnel decision.

Trade possibilities: Could swapping Kristi’s help?

If the Sky were to decide that Toliver simply doesn’t fit into their dribble drive scheme (and I argue she has not demonstrated the ability to run that kind of offense) then could a trade be in the Sky’s best interest? CJ at the TIB blog suggests exactly that and even proposes a trade idea:

So is KT stuck with the Sky? I don’t think so. I could definitely see a trade with L.A., swapping the Kristis: Harrower and Toliver. I think then you put two talented guards on teams that are better suited to their sensibilities. Harrower could certainly take over the PG duties in Chicago without missing a beat, and matching Toliver with Parker could be a formula for a decade’s worth of very interesting basketball (KT’s four years partnered with Marissa Coleman being ideal training for a combo with Parker).

On the surface, this makes a lot of sense for the Sky: Harrower has been one of the most efficient facilitators in the league thus far this season, keeping turnovers low while having a high assist ratio and pure point rating. However, given the Sky’s other personnel, I’m not sure it’s a “traditional” facilitator that the Sky need -- if they want to play an inside-out game, Toliver is a much better outside shooter, and if they want to play a dribble drive system, Harrower is not necessarily more effective at that than Toliver (though she has posted a better 2 point field goal % this season).

The Sky clearly have options at point guard and I don’t think an analysis of individual strengths and weaknesses really helps to figure out who should start there. If they keep falling apart down the stretch with an Olympian and two other potential all-stars on the team, then the problem has to go beyond individual players making poor decisions. They have to develop a system that will prevent these fourth quarter implosions.

In the end, the Sky’s success will come down to them figuring out what exactly they are trying to do. And with so many young and constantly developing players, that is no easy task.

Related Links:

7/2009 - Sky 99, Dream 98 (OT): Just Warming Up
http://atlantadreamblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/72009-sky-99-dream-98-ot-just-warming.html

Chicago's Steve Key on Kristi Toliver
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/mystics-insider/2009/06/chicagos_steve_key_on_kristi_t.html

Transition Points:

Shalee Lehning vs. Nikki Teasley… How do you measure Lehning’s impact? From watching the game, Shalee Lehning played much better than Nikki Teasley. But is there a way to show that statistically, especially when Teasley ranked #8 in my most recent rankings? I think so: one of the statistics included in my rankings is plus/minus. In yesterday’s game, Lehning recorded a plus/minus rating of +10 while Teasley had a plus/minus of -11 (click here for complete numbers).

It wasn’t that Lehning did anything spectacular, but she got the ball into the hands of the players who needed it down the stretch comeback. And it was a pretty impressive performance for a rookie point guard in a tight game. But what was most interesting was her enthusiasm – all throughout that comeback, Lehning was high fiving teammates and clearly the most excited one on the court during every stoppage of play. Part of being a leader is keeping people’s spirits high. And whereas young players are sometimes reluctant to try inspiring teammates, Lehning is clearly willing to do so. I don’t know whether she should assume a larger role on the team (her shot is really inconsistent) but she is a solid back-up nonetheless…

But after seeing so little production from the point guard position during this game, I have to wonder why they chose to waive Ivory Latta…

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Why We Cannot Count the Monarchs Out…Yet

Prior to last night’s game against the Minnesota Lynx, Monarchs announcer Krista Blunk tried to put a positive spin on the Monarchs’ struggles to start the season.

I definitely think they’re better than a 1-3 team and I think it is early. If this is the way the season is going to go, there are going to be games that teams could have won and should have won and there are going to be games that just slip away. And that’s exactly what’s happened.

After the Monarchs let yet another game slip away losing to the Lynx in a closely played 86-83 game, Blunk reiterated her point and Chelsea Newton had more hopeful talk.

We will have everyone back and be healthier. We have a whole week to work on our defense and that is our focus.

Normally when I hear this kind of talk I dismiss it as irrelevant spin.

Clearly, the Monarchs are not in a pleasant situation right now sitting at 1-4 at the bottom of a very competitive Western Conference.

However, the optimism about the Monarchs is not entirely unjustified.

As of today, the Monarchs have played the toughest schedule of any team according to petrel’s RPI rankings on Rebkell, playing 3 of the top five teams in their first 5 games in the WNBA’s power rankings.

Given the injuries keeping players out and the number of players playing with injuries, it would be something of a miracle if the Monarchs were above .500 right now. Even with a healthy roster, they would have to be playing close to championship basketball to come out of that schedule with a winning record.

So beyond what has to be a disappointing start, what can we take away from the Monarchs’ first few games?

I’ve had the opportunity to watch them a few times this season – the road loss against the Storm, the overtime loss against the Mercury, and last night against the Lynx – and this does not strike me as a hopeless team. The problem right now is that with so many pieces banged up, it’s been difficult to establish a rhythm.

So the question is, how good might the Monarchs look once they hit their stride?

There’s no “I” in “team”…but there is in “win”…

The key to Monarchs basketball is their imposing frontline and that they play extremely well as a unit.

So as coach Jenny Boucek has said, even when they blew out the Mercury, the key to this team’s success is execution.


However, the biggest struggle the Monarchs have was touched upon by play by play announcer, Jason Ross. With the Lynx’s LaToya Pringle on the line late in the 4th quarter and the Monarchs up by 1, Ross said the following:

Every time it looks like the Monarchs may be establishing something here comes Minnesota to tie it…and Sacramento has had the lead for a lot of this 4th quarter but just can't seem to get any separation.

Ross’ description of the flow of the game itself is a perfect metaphor for describing the Monarchs’ on-court problems, especially without Ticha Penicheiro.

The Monarchs have a number of talented bigs who can score inside and dominate the offensive boards. However, that requires one of two things – either the perimeter players have to get good shots up within the flow of the offense or they have to get the ball to their bigs in scoring position.

Far too often, neither happened last night when the Monarchs needed it most down the stretch.

Meanwhile, Seimone Augustus was just reminding us why she got WNBA Player of the Week honors last week, almost scoring at will; she was in one of those zones where the defense couldn’t stop her, she just happened to miss occasionally.

As much as I personally love and value team basketball, a team cannot win without someone who can make plays when the team needs it.

The Monarchs’ guards were unable to penetrate and create openings to make plays for most of the game meaning they were making extremely difficult entry passes into the post.

That problem was only compounded by the fact that starting perimeter players Kara Lawson and Sholanda Robinson shot a combined 3-16 from the field and 1-6 from the 3 point line. Lawson did not get to the free throw line once and Robinson went 1-2 from the charity stripe.

In other words, all the Lynx defense had to do was pack it in and cut off the passing lanes. At the end of a close game, it becomes extremely difficult for a team to score when nobody is able to make a play beyond 5 feet from the basket.

At no time was that illustrated better than when the best shot that they could get down one point at home with 8.9 seconds left was a three pointer from Kara Lawson…who was 1-6 to that point.

A team simply can’t win when the defense is able to force them into relying upon a weakness.

Waiting for Ticha’s return…

One player mentioned in post-game interviews that the team is awaiting Ticha Penicheiro’s return and really that would address that problem of making plays.

Lawson is an efficient point guard in that she does not turn the ball over and can run the offense. But she isn’t the type of player who can really force the defense out of their comfort zone to make plays for others at the end of a game.

That’s what the Penicheiro of old could do. And she’s still got enough of that to really help this team.

Blunk suggested on a few occasions that she thinks the Monarchs should run more, but I would argue they don’t have the playmakers out there right now to make plays in space. However, something I was impressed with was the ability of the Monarchs’ bigs to make plays for each other.

Crystal Kelly and DeMya Walker did an excellent job of passing the ball in the post which helped to create plays that catered to their strength – post play. One idea would be to run some sort of high low offense where their post players play a hi-lo double post or some other scheme that would allow them to make decisions with the ball and free the perimeter players to get open in scoring position.

While Kelly still looks nervous with the ball and Walker sometimes looks hesitant to passing situations, the post game is absolutely their strength.

Defense still a work in progress, but offense needs help sooner

The Monarchs’ pointed to the defense as a reason for the loss to the Lynx and it was a problem. Anybody is able to penetrate the Monarchs defense: Augustus, Renee Montgomery, Candice Wiggins, Charde Houston, Nicky Anosike…even Kelly Miller made a cameo in the paint early on in the game.

Their perimeter defense was not just the failing of guards – it was like anyone caught in space with a Lynx player was destined to get beat. That has to be fixed…and likely will be.

But even if they play good defense, they have to be able to score on offense more effectively. Right now, they are almost too reliant on team basketball.

Transition Points:

Crystal Kelly never ceases to amaze me. Krista Blunk suggested she is better coming off the bench and I agree – Kelly is the epitome of a flow player. She sees the game extremely well and just identifies gaps in the defense and quietly puts herself in position to score. When she gets the ball, she’s decisive. As a result, she gets herself to the line extremely well and is able to contribute without appearing to be dominant. It’s really amazing to watch from such a young player.

Renee Montgomery looked solid against the Monarchs though she started off a little rough trying to establish herself by taking shots a little early in the offense at the end of the 1st quarter. In the second half, I thought she calmed down a bit and played within the offense much more effectively. The last three minutes of the 3rd quarter might have been her best performance of her short professional career – in the stat sheet, she recorded an assist, a three pointer, and a floating lay-up. Really, she should have recorded two more assists that were lost when her teammates missed makeable layups. In addition, she played extremely aggressive defense during that stint. Kelly Miller is the better fit as the starter for this team right now, but Montgomery stands to be an impressive point guard down the line.



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