The Los Angeles Sparks: "Expect Anything"

After the Los Angeles Sparks' 67-66 overtime road win over the Silver Stars last night, San Antonio forward Sophia Young perfectly articulated why this was the one game I was looking forward to seeing all week.

"With LA we expect anything,'' said Young. "It's always going to be a good game. They never blow us out, we never blow them out, and it's always an exciting game for the fans.''

Too bad nobody could see it on WNBA LiveAccess...because there's more than one reason to want to watch the Sparks.

Consistent with Young's statement, this was a tightly contested game, perhaps even an ugly one. Looking at the Four Factors statistics, the only major thing separating the two teams last night was the Sparks' dominance on the offensive boards, which is typical of when these teams play.

Combined with the San Antonio Silver Stars' uncharacteristically low assisted field goal percentage -- meaning they were not moving the ball well -- the Sparks got enough of an edge to pull this one out.

However, what makes the game more significant is that it marks a major turning point for the Sparks season -- the night when they became a legit playoff team. Not just because the Sparks moved into third place in the Western Conference after an abysmal start to their season, but also because of how they did it.

The Sparks beat the defending Western Conference champion Silver Stars in San Antonio in a (seemingly) gritty overtime battle to extend a 3 game winning streak to 4.

That’s the type of game hungry and serious playoff contenders win, not only because they have to fight for playoff position, but just to prove to everyone else that they are a team to beat. It forces us to shift our thinking about the Sparks from wondering about what has transpired thus far this season to wondering what might come to pass in the post-season.

And that’s what makes this most significant to me and the reason why I’ve taken an increasing interest in the Sparks since the All-Star break.

Los Angeles fans shouldn’t be the only celebrating the Sparks transition into a legit playoff team. The Sparks are in the midst of constructing what could become one of the league’s great narratives…and that’s good for anyone who cares about the health of the WNBA.

Having center Lisa Leslie make a deep playoff run in her final season and Parker emerging as a real post-season performer after all the mess of a season this has been for them so far really is a great story that sports fans should be able to step into.

Leslie and Parker are arguably the two most prominent women’s basketball players in the U.S. Dramatizing the transition from one to the other with a successful final run for Leslie is exactly the jolt the league needs.

Given the narrative of this season – maternity leave, injuries, inconsistent rotations – having those two at the center of a successful turnaround also creates a hero narrative for the WNBA that is so rarely applied to women’s team sports. It gives people reasons to continue following.

Part of what attracts people to pro sports are hero narratives – people we can root for and who accomplish things that we can only imagine. People who can overcome adversity when everyone has counted them out and persevere to reach the top of their craft.

We can talk all we want about how basketball is a team game and that's what makes it beautiful, but let's be real: it's individual figures like Los Angeles Lakers legend Magic Johnson that make leagues successful.

I’m not saying I am rooting for the Sparks to win it all. But it’s hard to deny that every step closer they get to the WNBA Finals from this point on will be good for the WNBA.

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Revisiting the Storm-Sparks Triple Overtime Classic: Do the Sparks Still Have a Shot at the Playoffs?

With less than a minute remaining in the third quarter of last Wednesday’s triple overtime classic in Key Arena, LA Sparks forward Candace Parker had the ball on the wing guarded by Storm forward Camille Little.

Parker had not yet scored to that point in the game and had been the last player down the court on multiple plays. There was no reason for optimism that Parker could suddenly put the team on her back and make something happen, but there was a lingering feeling from 2008 that she could make something happen.

Although Little had done a very good job defending Parker throughout the game, Parker seemed to have a glimmer of you-can’t-guard-me in her eyes. It was a look of determination, intensity and focus. It was a reason to believe that the momentum of the game was about to shift. Down by five points at the time, it appeared as though Parker was not quite ready to let this game slip away, even if the odds – and the Key Arena crowd – were in the Storm’s favor.

The clip played in Key Arena during overtime.
Parker passed the ball, got it back quickly, turned the corner after recognizing some confusion in the Storm’s defensive rotations, and scored over a helpless Storm help defender with a driving layup punctuated by an authoritative slap of the backboard, more reminiscent of the bravado exhibited in a pick-up game than what the average person might expect from a women’s basketball game.

She went on to finish the quarter with another contested layup and started the fourth quarter by assisting Tina Thompson on a three to put the Sparks up four points. Later, she hit a big jumper down the stretch and at one point gave MVP candidate and former Defensive Player of the Year, Lauren Jackson a challenge, drawing a foul on a short jumper.

It appeared Parker was starting to put the league on notice: she’s hitting her stride and once she does, she could return to embarrassing defenders nightly any game now.

Of course, the Sparks lost the game in triple overtime, partially due to a heroic effort by Storm guard Sue Bird in the third overtime, partially due to the Sparks’ mental lapses and inability to execute down the stretch. The Sparks played well enough to win, but in the end, the Storm just had a little bit more, even after losing some of their star power with Tanisha Wright fouled out and Lauren Jackson ejected.

Unfortunately for the Sparks, this scenario is reminiscent of a narrative that could potentially describe their entire season once the WNBA reaches playoff time.

Even if the Sparks turn it on, show the flashes of determined brilliance required of a champion, and hit their stride as a team instead of a collection of talented individuals, it’s very possible that it simply won’t quite be enough to send off a retiring Lisa Leslie with a trip to the post-season.

But can you really count out a team with four Olympians and a volume shooter having an all-star worthy season if they manage to get that determination, focus and intensity required to win? Do they still have a shot at the playoffs?

Reasons for Optimism

Watching Parker starting to turn it on for that momentum-shifting seven minute stretch in the second half is plenty of reason to spark optimism. Parker went on to finish last week’s game with 10 points, 10 rebounds, 6 blocks, and 5 assists, not bad for a player who is still not playing her best ball consistently. Parker’s increasing comfort on the court combined with Lisa Leslie’s expected return in the next few games, is certainly reason for confidence.

However, Parker’s performance alone was not the only reason for optimism evident in that game. As one might have expected, the Sparks got off to a decent start in the Storm game by playing with a higher energy level and outworking the Storm in the paint – in the second quarter, the Sparks had an offensive rebounding percentage of 70%. During that quarter, they only took one three pointer but had a free throw rate of 72%. So focusing on rebounding, high percentage shots, and moving the ball well, helped them overcome 11 first half turnovers and build an 8 point first half lead.

Further reason for optimism is a matter of scheduling, as described by The Root.com’s Martin Johnson:

…the Sparks have played more than twice as many games on the road as they have at home. They are 1-8 on the road and 3-1 at home. In the second half of the season, that split will reverse, giving a bit of hope for the rest of their season.

Johnson doesn’t even mention that the Sparks have three games against the struggling Sacramento Monarchs, who they defeated by 20 points in LA on June 21st.

If the Sparks can bring it all together and continue to play like they did in the second quarter, in addition to Parker playing the way she did for seven minutes in the second half, as well as Leslie contributing on both ends of the floor, they could dominate the second half of the season.

That would be the hope.

However reality might not be so kind.

Their best might not be enough.

Practically speaking, the Western Conference might just be too tough. If the Sparks were to sneak in, who might we expect to fall out?

The Phoenix Mercury and Seattle Storm – both on pace to win at least 21 games -- would have to completely collapse in order to fall out of the playoffs. When Ann Wauters returns to the Silver Stars, they’ll likely return to last year’s form. The Minnesota Lynx seem to be the most vulnerable team with star player lost for the season due to injury and left with a very young rotation of players, that could collapse. So Lynx coach Jennifer Gillom’s statement that it would take 20 games to make the playoffs this year might be a good barometer for the Sparks.

The Lynx are on pace to win about 20 games, with a record of 10-7 halfway through their schedule. The Sparks would have to win 16 of their remaining 21 games – a winning percentage of 76% -- to get to 20 games. They already lost one game to the Lynx on the road, so if it came down to a tie-breaker, they would need to win all three of their remaining games against the Lynx (2 home, 1 road) to win that. And therefore to avoid a tie-breaker, they’d actually have to win 21 games.

An argument could certainly be made that the Lynx will fail to maintain their current pace in the second half of the season. Kevin Pelton’s expected wins standings have the Lynx finishing with 17.1 wins (and the Sparks with 14.7). Considering that the Sparks are likely to improve on their first half performance as they get their personnel healthy, they are probably more likely to exceed their expected wins than the Lynx.

However, while this is all mathematically possible, it would require an historic run – consider that the Indiana Fever who went on a 11 game win streak in the first half of the season, won 75% of their 16 games. To put it in perspective, the Sparks would have to play a little bit better than the Fever have to this point, for a longer period of time. It’s not unheard of, but it would take a significant turn-around.

Moving to actual game play, the Sparks’ point guard situation has been inconsistent, at best. They get flashes of solid point guard play from either Kristi Harrower, Shannon Bobbitt, or Noelle Quinn, but it’s difficult to predict when any of those players will turn it on, much less which player will do it.

In last week’s game against the Storm, it was Quinn who turned it on, scoring all but one of her 10 points in the overtime periods, including 6 points in the first overtime period just driving right through the Storm’s defense. Bobbitt played well along with Parker at the end of the third, but for most of the game, they did not get much from the point guard position.

For a post-dependent team, it can be a fatal vulnerability – the easy way to beat the Sparks would be to pressure the guards full court and prevent them from getting the team into the offense until late in the shot clock.

Ultimately, this is impossible to predict, which makes it fun to watch.

I said the Sparks would be the number team to watch at the start of the season and I don’t think that’s changed now after a difficult start. Parker will hit her stride. And eventually Parker and Leslie will be playing together. It will be interesting to see what they’re capable of.

However, my biggest reservation about the Sparks at the beginning of the season and the reason I was hesitant to anoint them the pre-destined champion is that I am always skeptical of these type of all-star teams that franchises assemble for one-year runs. They rarely work. When they do it’s because they lack the type of major vulnerability like the Sparks have at point guard.

The number one problem is always figuring out a way to find roles for every player and then finding a chemistry that maximizes each player’s talent within a particular style, not going play to play searching for an option and waiting for someone to step up.

And if they do pull it off, it would actually be a storybook ending for Leslie’s career.

Transition Points:

The energy at Key Arena last Wednesday was amazing. It's not often in life that you get the privilege of being present for a triple overtime game that is as well played as the Sparks-Storm game was (especially in the 4th quarter and overtime(s)). It got so good that Bird's third overtime run was almost anti-climactic -- it felt as though a last second jumper would have been more befitting for the game.

That was one of the games that I wish people on the fence about the WNBA could see -- it had all the passion, big plays, and excitement that you could want for a sport. If you can't appreciate the game after a game like that, then it's not for you...and that's perfectly fine.


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Expect Great ’09: A case study and reflection

Unfortunately, I don’t have any juicy information about the opening of WNBA training camps that you couldn’t get elsewhere.

So instead, I thought this was a good opportunity to comment about another major occurrence yesterday – the television premiere of the newest Expect Great ads.

As excited as I was about yesterday’s NBA game sevens, they were a huge disappointment, which is probably why my mind just wandered to this post.

I watched with 3 of my friends at my friend C’s house (pseudonyms have been used to protect the identities of the innocent). As the games continued to suck, our attention wavered and we started talking about all kinds of random stuff, including watching YouTube clips of C’s brother’s band at one point.

So what ended up grabbing my attention was my friends’ responses to the Expect Great commercials. Of course, the commercials are what inspired me to write this blog so naturally I’m interested in how well this newest iteration “works”. And what better way to do that than with a bunch of over-educated dudes watching basketball?

Anyway, C is in love with his DVR and has now decided that he has no use for commercials. So we “accidentally” caught the WNBA commercials only twice (I’m not sure if they were on more than that throughout the afternoon). But I think the conversation (and non-conversation) was enough to make a point about this year’s first iteration of ads.

We are all graduate students (meaning we have a lot of time on our hands to think about inconsequential aspects of the world around us). None of them are WNBA fans and they don’t watch as far as I know. I’m not sure if they’ve ever been to a game. None of them played high school basketball, though I have played intramural basketball with C and R, both of whom did play a high sport. All of us, however, are NBA fans, and at least C and G are NCAA fans as well.

A random note that should not matter, but usually manages to come up in conversations:
C just got married last year (no kids yet), R is engaged, and G is pathetically single, like me.

Obviously, I had seen the ads before online and I’m assuming they had not. And prior to watching it with them, here’s essentially what I thought:

I agree with those who say they are an upgrade from last year – the gloomy tone is gone and the images are…interesting – but they still fall way short of building a buzz about the league among their target audience.

After watching it with my friends, here’s what I think now:

Whereas last year’s initial spots targeted men, grabbed their attention, and challenged them to interrogate their own biases (thus turning off a number of lunkheads who were shocked that women were allowed to leave the kitchen), this year’s ads are still targeted at men, but fail to grab their attention and hardly get them to interrogate their own biases.

My thoughts on last year’s ads

Just to recap, here’s what I thought about last year’s Expect Great ads:

My friend and I were trying to figure out if these “Expect Great” commercials were effective and whether we liked them. After some deliberation, the verdict was “no” on both counts.

The tone was probably too gloomy and it was just uninspiring. I also have a hard time getting over the grammatical incorrectness of “Expect Great”. I guess it grabs attention because it’s so awkward….but whatever…

So after thinking about what the commercials needed to communicate, here’s what we came up with: in order to appreciate the WNBA people have to stop comparing it to the men’s basketball as inherently “inferior”.

People have to be able to envision basketball without 300 pound 7-footers and highlight reel dunks. Somehow people need to redefine their own conceptions about what basketball is and how the women’s game fits under an umbrella that includes many distinct variations: the NBA, FIBA rules, And1 Mix Tapes, NCAA basketball, and everyday streetball.

That of course essentially frames the goal of this blog – to just appreciate the WNBA on its own terms and find ways to highlight its bright spots (some of the best female athletes in the world competing to see whose team is best).

So here’s what happened yesterday.

Data: My friends’ responses

So when the ad flashed on the screen for the first time, we were all just zoned out or in the middle of a conversation or something. The ad passed by without anyone even bothering to pay attention to it. If anyone did have a thought, they just didn’t share. My only thought was – man, that fell as flat on the big screen as it did on my computer.

But when it came on the second time, there was a different response, it went roughly as follows.

[Commercial ends]

[Collective reflective pause]

“You know I was just reading that Sheryl Swoopes is coming out of retirement this year…like she just had a baby two years ago or something,” says R.

[Collective bewildered pause]

“Yeah, I just read that Candace Parker is having a baby and might not be playing this year,” says C.

[Pause]

“Actually R, Swoopes played last year,” I say. “In fact, she played right here in Seattle for the Storm.”

“Oh,” says R somewhat surprised. “Well I thought someone was coming out of retirement or something.”

[Pause – I realize now he’s talking about Holdsclaw…but before I can respond…]

“You know I would really like to go to one of those games this summer if any of you are up for it,” says R.

“Yeah, I’ve been to a few. I was planning on going this summer,” I say. “We should get together and go sometime.”

“Cool.”

Data analysis: Conflating old narratives

What I find absolutely fascinating about this is that R had essentially conflated three different major WNBA “narratives”:

• Holdsclaw coming out of retirement
• Swoopes, clearly a star around the time we were in college, who did have a child
• And Parker, who just had a child

Clearly, R has some fledgling interest in the game and would go if given a reason (in this case, I would take him). But do the commercials on their own really tell him anything about the league or somehow give him a narrative to latch onto?

No.

And thus he is left grasping at straws to create connections among a bunch of images of players he doesn’t even know.

The Holdsclaw story would certainly grab attention, but given that she’s left teams twice for personal reasons, making that story prominent for this season is probably inappropriate.

However, it is Lisa Leslie’s last season. People do know Swoopes. But I imagine the average male who knows those players knows nothing about the current league or who is even playing in their own city – even when it is Sheryl Swoopes.

C might have read the ESPN the Mag article about Parker or seen something on ESPN.com, but probably couldn’t tell you who Parker plays for.

Keep in mind, this was one of the most intelligent conversations I’ve had with men about the WNBA since the league started (I had a college roommate who is now a sports producer who just knew everything about every sport).

So where does this leave us?

Implications for Future Research

Obviously, I can't really generalize or make any causal claims based on this case study "data". However, it does lead me to some insights we could gain from this.

First of all, if the WNBA wants to target male fans (which I'm not saying is the best strategy) my group of friends are the type who I think the WNBA should be targeting. They're far more likely to show up at a game than the clown in the bar who is looking forward to lingerie football. Lingerie football and the WNBA are just incommensurable. Let the lunkheads do as they please, WNBA. We'll address them at some later date...

In this particular group of males, we do not see the blatantly disrespectful and dismissive remarks that we might find at the local dive bar or a Lingerie Bowl fan club. So they, like me, would probably be interested in the WNBA purely for the sport of it. They just need a reason.

However for this group – and many males like my friends – I imagine the WNBA equation looks something like the following:

WNBA = Leslie + Swoopes + Holdsclaw + Parker

I’m sure that there would be additional names added to this equation depending on location and age. And there may be additional individual differences based on where people went to college. But in my experience – this and others – even players like Lauren Jackson, Sue Bird, and Diana Taurasi are relative unknowns on a national scale.

The problem, of course, is that Leslie, Swoopes and Holdsclaw are past their primes, if not retiring. And Parker won’t be playing for a while this season.

So when taking this “data” (really just grounded assumptions) into consideration, what can we say about WNBA marketing?

The first impulse might be to say that we need to pump up these “unknown” stars to demonstrate that indeed, the league has made progress since inception and there are reasons to watch.

But upon further reflection I thought of something else – with Leslie retiring, isn’t this the perfect time to come up with some “passing the torch” campaign? Something reminiscent of the “We Got Next” campaign? Like who has next after Leslie, Swoopes, and Holdsclaw are off the radar? Yeah, sure there’s Parker but now that she’s out for a bit, why not introduce the next squad who has next?

I thought the Olympics set the stage nicely for a “passing the torch” campaign – the Leslie to Fowles handoff was essentially executed in Beijing as far as I’m concerned. So why not expand that theme a little?

In addition to Fowles, there’s Candice Wiggins, who’s like lightning in a bottle off the bench. Then there’s a set of young players like Cappie Pondexter, Candice Dupree, Sophia Young and Seimone Augustus who can flat out play.

Fowles, Wiggins, Pondexter, Dupree, Augustus, Young…and of course there are others...

They got next. Why not tell us to watch them in your commercials?

Why not give people an actual story to follow of some sort?

This is not to say that Bird, Jackson, and Taurasi are somehow uninteresting – you know I love Taurasi. But why not build a narrative – no matter how contrived – that people might hear about and talk about and actually want to go see develop?

What if the conversation with my buddies involved hearing about the next dominant post player in the WNBA in Fowles? Or the scoring ability and intensity of Candice Wiggins (who some people may know from her NCAA days? Or Augustus’ ability to score 30 points on 80% shooting on one of the best defenses in the league?

You want my buddies to Expect Great? Tell them what’s been going on in the last decade since they last paid attention to Leslie, Swoopes, and Holdsclaw. Tell them what’s on the horizon and help them step into a developing story.

I’m not even suggesting a second iteration of “We Got Next” – the slogan could certainly change, but I think that spirit would be perfect for the WNBA right now. But everybody likes to be the one who picked up on the next big thing before they were the big thing. Why not help people get there?

Random images of people they don’t recognize and pictures of girls in the crowd ain’t gonna do it.

Transition Points:

The NBA has had similar campaigns “passing the torch” campaigns to promote Kobe and Tim Duncan in the post-Jordan years. Of course, it was all with the help of their corporate friends:

Sprite - Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan - 1998
Uploaded by GarfieldFan2000. -

But some of it was the NBA’s own promotion of the game. Anybody remember the hype around the Kobe-MJ matchup in the 1998 all-star game?


There was also a brief effort to compare Dwyane Wade to Jordan (a disservice to both men) on a lesser scale as well.

We can debate whether these efforts were “effective” – and honestly, they annoyed me to no end -- but there’s no doubt that this set of players have ended up carrying the torch for the NBA while the world waited for LeBron to just take over.

Lebron james nike commercial
Uploaded by barkich. - Music videos, artist interviews, concerts and more.

And as though the anticipation around a Kobe-LeBron NBA finals showdown needed more hype this year, the commercial that got us all going during yesterday’s games was Nike’s Kobe-LeBron puppets commercials.


The thing is, I could imagine Kobe being that…um…”proud” of his accomplishments… I think it would even funnier if they added a Carmelo Anthony puppet just begging for some attention…

Something else I thought about: Right now may not even be the time to really campaign hard for the WNBA -- it's not starting until June 6th. So maybe right now is just the time to plant the seeds since there's not much to watch yet...maybe the WNBA will have a second iteration closer to June 6th tip-off? Who knows...

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Lisa Leslie's Mother's Day interview on ESPN....

Last night I was pleasantly surprised to see Lisa Leslie on Sportscenter discussing motherhood, whether women will ever play in the NBA, and her trip to the White House.

My first thought was, hey, this is great exposure for the WNBA, especially given that the pre-season is starting up next week.

My second thought was, wait, when was the last time they asked an NBA player – or any male athlete -- about managing fatherhood and professional sports?

My third thought was, whoa, they didn’t even mention that the season was coming up (training camps open May 17)…that’s odd…

OK, that’s not entirely fair – the interviewer did say, “Now with the season going on how do you handle being a mother with the season.” And Leslie did respond, “That’s why I chose to retire this year.”

But folks, I’m sorry – this is ESPN and I’ve seen plenty of these Sunday Conversations. They are typically about the athlete and the game. To not even ask a question about the WNBA’s upcoming season strikes me as odd. I won’t necessarily say it’s problematic because it was Mother’s Day afterall…but let’s just say… odd.

But then I reverted back to my second thought – what does it say about us as a society when male athletes who play longer seasons almost never mention bringing their kids along with them, much less sharing advice about taking care of their kids? Shouldn’t we have higher expectations for fathers at some point?

Which gets to the following point made by Full Court Press correspondent Sue Favor:

What it will likely mean is that there will be lots of children at practices and on road trips. Christofferson, an attorney, said it puts her and her players on par with mothers everywhere.

"The fact is that we're struggling with the same thing as women in all professions," she said. "In some ways it's easier because we have more flexibility in our schedules, but in other ways it's harder because we have to travel."

Yes, it does put them on par with women in other professions -- the expectation that women need to be superwomen with amazing juggling skills.

Oh well...ESPN is on a roll with their portrayal of WNBA players...

Transition Points:

I thought Leslie's response to the question of whether women will play in the NBA one day was interesting: "We hope not. Because there's no need for that...you would really need to be on something to make it out there." "Integrating" the NBA and supporting the WNBA is the difference between equality and equity. I am all about equity -- support a league for women to play in, not a few individuals riding NBA benches...

Malcolm Gladwell did an excellent job of firing people up about girls basketball. The latest to chime in is Brian McCormick who writes the Crossover Movement blog (among other things)...and he makes an interesting point:

As 12-year-olds, the press is fine. The problem, however, is that many girls in this league start at 8-years-old and they are unable to handle a press four years later. The problem isn’t the one team that presses with 12-year-olds: the problem is that for four years, players have done the same things playing with the same rules and they have not developed the skills necessary to make inbounds passes under pressure or pass out of a trap.

I question the coaching methods of the team because they admitted to making no attempt to develop their players’ skills. However, the other team’s complaints are unjustified, as players should have basic skills by 12-years-old. Defense will still be ahead of the offense, but if coaches teach skills each year, it starts to balance out.

The problem, I imagine, is that in previous seasons, the complaining coaches sat back in zone defenses and ran set plays and spent all practice memorizing set plays and different defenses to win their games, so their kids never developed basic skills either. When they faced a press, they were ill-equipped to handle the press.

Players need to develop skills. They need to be taught how to handle pressure and develop passing and ball handling skills. 12-year-olds should be developing proper shooting technique.

Somewhere someone must have written a spiral curriculum for age appropriate skills to teach young basketball players. And yes, if coaches were thinking in terms of developmental skill building, they should be able to handle a press by 12. But now I need to actually read this Gladwell piece rather than absorbing the opinions of others...

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Why Noelle Quinn is a great pick up for the Sparks

Much was made of the LA Sparks point guard play last year and they probably hope that Tuesday’s trade for Noelle Quinn will help bolster an otherwise thin point guard rotation for the 2009 season.

Is Quinn the ideal point guard for the Sparks? Probably not.

But is Quinn a good fit for the 2009 Sparks as currently constituted? Perhaps so.

While it may strike some as odd that the Sparks gave up two players – Sidney Spencer and Raffaella Masciadri -- to acquire Quinn, I would argue that this trade is exactly what the Sparks needed.

When your end of season team figures to be Lisa Leslie, DeLisha Milton-Jones, Betty Lenox, and a returning to form Candace Parker, you don’t need a superstar running point. All you need is a player to bring the ball up the court and pass it off to someone who can score. Really, this point guard shouldn’t even expect the ball back -- just pass the ball and don’t make mistakes.

Noelle Quinn fits the bill.

Consider the following that I wrote about Quinn’s play after a Minnesota Lynx – New York Liberty game last June (link):

Noelle Quinn is probably the epitome of a distributor – nothing fancy, just getting the ball up the court and efficiently initiating the offense. Last year she was second only to Ticha Penicheiro in pure point rating and first in Hollinger’s assist ratio among point guards – meaning she was very likely to pass the ball when it was in her hands.

She’s going to take what the defense gives her and get the team into the offense. This is what I think is normally meant by a “pass-first” point guard.

If we label Quinn according to the point guard styles that I laid out later in the summer, Quinn would actually be something more of an initiator – the player who brings the ball up court and gets the team into the offense, seemingly what the Sparks need. But really, that’s what they had last year in Shannon Bobbitt, Temeka Johnson, and Keisha Brown so what’s different (or better) about Quinn? Isn’t this just more of the same?

Perhaps not.

Quinn is entering her third year of professional ball and in the short excerpt above lies the key to evaluating this trade: which Noelle Quinn will the Sparks get – the one that was a rather efficient distributor in 2007 or the one that was a marginal initiator in 2008? Which leads to a sub-question: what happened in the 2008 that led to such a significant drop in point guard production (though an improvement in shooting statistics)?

I was about to write that this trade is therefore a calculated risk, but in reality it isn’t – the Sparks didn’t really give up enough to consider this “risky”. They needed a point guard and the Lynx had a glut at the guard spot. But if Quinn can return to her 2007 form, the Sparks may have just become an even more dangerous team…and in fact, Quinn might end up being the missing point guard piece that many Sparks fans longed for last season.

The Sparks problems were bigger than their point guard play

Point guard was indeed the Sparks’ weakest position last year, so of course filling that void should have been seen as a major off-season priority. And with the acquisition of Betty Lennox, that point guard weak spot is even more evident rather than less.

The argument for directing a spotlight at the point guard spot is simple (well…aside from the fact that coach Michael Cooper called out his point guards on more than one occasion): the point guard is the one responsible for maintaining the tempo, initiating the offense, and managing the team on the floor.

However, that does not necessarily mean the point guard deserves the brunt of the blame when things go wrong. And in the case of the Sparks, that was particularly true last year.

Sparks fans probably need not be told that the Sparks offense was erratic…but it was not always the point guards’ fault. Early in the season, they were trying to be an uptempo team. Later, they tried to position Parker as a superwoman who could bring the ball up the court, play from the wing, and play the post. If the point guards are asked to run a broken system, it will not work no matter who is running the show (see 2008-2009 Phoenix Suns).

Once the Sparks did settle into a defined system, it was much easier for Bobbitt to play the position extremely effectively. The game that really stands out in my mind was a mid-season win against the Mercury. Bobbitt brought energy, got the team into the offense quickly, and played admirable defense. When you have an Olympic frontcourt, that’s all you really need from a point guard.

Looking at last year’s point guard statistics, Quinn will bring about the same thing to the court as last year’s point guard triad. Beyond the statistics, although she might be a step slower than Bobbitt or Johnson, she is probably a better passer than any of the point guards they had last year. If she returns to the type of player she was in 2007 – moving from a player who is able to just bring the ball up the court back to one who can facilitate opportunities for others – she would be an upgrade from last season.

This, of course, does not take defense into account. However, if you have ever played with two dominant shot blockers, you might know that perimeter defense becomes much easier – since it’s harder to score inside, all you have to do on the perimeter is apply pressure, rotate, and help. Penetration is not only less of a problem, but it is also a strategy that most opponents would not even bother trying.

So what the Sparks need to hope for from Quinn and Bobbitt is simple: development. They are both young point guards who have shown flashes of doing exactly what the Sparks would need them to do. Therefore, it’s the rest of the veterans’ and the coach staff’s responsibility to provide the framework within which the young point guards can operate. For the Sparks, it should be obvious.

The key to the Sparks is the high low offense and rebounding

Nobody is going to stop a combination of Leslie and Parker.

They are the two best bigs in the WNBA which means double teaming one of them leaves the other open. Single coverage means leaving the other open.

So why would the Sparks do anything other than look into the post on every single possession?

Some would argue that the point guard needs to be an adept outside shooter to spread the defense. However, I would argue that their wins last year when they played the high-low post offense are proof that the Sparks just need someone to initiate the offense.

If Candace Parker is at the top of the key and Lisa Leslie is posting up, how exactly would a defense stop that?

If you throw the ball to the post and the defense doubles down off the non-shooting the guard, the guard can still drive in and hit a cutter. If the defense doubles off the high post, then that post can make a play. Single coverage in the post? I’ll bet on Leslie/Parker one-on-one against anyone in the league.

Others might respond that Leslie/Parker might have off games, therefore needing the guards to shoot from outside. However, this is also among the most dominant offensive rebounding teams in the league with Leslie, Paker, and DeLisha Milton-Jones – so once they do get a shot up they are able to get a number of second chances.

In other words, if the Sparks play to their strengths and force the other team to respond to their crew of Olympians, all the point guard has to do is limit mistakes. Noelle Quinn is perfectly capable of that.

Relevant Links:

Sparks’ Team Chemistry: A Bigger Problem Than Point Guard Play
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/07/sparks-team-chemistry-bigger-problem.html

L.A. Gets A Spark From Bobbit As Starting Point Guard
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/07/la-gets-spark-from-bobbit-as-starting.html

Why the Sparks’ Performance is Finally Meeting Pre-Season Expectations
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/09/why-sparks-performance-is-finally.html

Los Angeles-San Antonio Scouting Report: Offensive Rebounding is the Key
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/08/los-angeles-v-san-antonio-preview-value.html

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Michelle Obama, Lisa Leslie...and Clair Huxtable.

How cool is it that Lisa Leslie was invited to stand with Michelle Obama in inspiring black girls in DC's predominately black Anacostia High School to reach their potential as leaders?

This is not necessarily important in terms of pure basketball news, but I think once again highlights the political importance of the WNBA.

Way back in the 80's, Clair Huxtable (aka Phylicia Rashad) was easily one of the most prominent black female role models in the mainstream. She was damn near perfect -- a brilliant lawyer, who didn't take anything from her husband, and simultaneously managed to keep the household together despite Cliff's aloofness...

While I fully recognize the harm of the black superwoman image in pop culture, Clair also represented a "black career woman", something I would argue society still struggles to comprehend today. Although the Cosby show was not perfect -- it was clearly more of a black middle class fantasy than a representation of how much progress the "average" black family was -- and Clair sets up these ridiculous expectations for what it means to be a successful black female professional, Clair Huxtable was as important a figure as any in pop culture.

This is what makes Michelle Obama so important -- the mainstream no longer has to draw upon fantasy to find images of strong, intelligent, black women who do not define themselves by their families, even if they choose to take care of them.

So when I saw that Michelle Obama, Phylicia Rashad, and Lisa Leslie -- among others -- have come together to encourage young girls in the predominately black DC public schools to see themselves as leaders -- however they may choose to do so -- I was even more enamored with Michelle as a black public figure. She has fully embraced this role as a public figure role model and making a huge statement in her willingness to connect DC's local issues to a broader national agenda.

The significance of this event is not only that Michelle Obama is a relatively powerful black woman using her position to make a statement, but also that she would even visit Anacostia High School, a "failing school" in DC that most national politicians would just ignore...and really aren't expected to do anything beyond that.

How many even first ladies (or presidents for that matter) even know where Anacostia High School is way down there at the end of the green line, let alone are willing to go? Even for the leftists out there who see Mr. Obama as too centrist for their liking, this represents a powerful commitment to doing something different while occupying the White House.

But what's more is the group of black women she assembled for this event:

The group included Grammy Award-winning singers Alicia Keyes and Sheryl Crow, actresses and sisters Debbie Allen and Phylicia Rashad, actress Fran Drescher, Olympic gymnast Dominique Dawes, WNBA star Lisa Leslie Lockwood and Mae Jemison, the first black woman to travel into space. Also participating were Gen. Ann Dunwoody, the first woman to achieve the four-star rank; actresses Alfre Woodard, Kerry Washington and Tracee Ellis Ross; and Debra Lee, president and CEO of the parent company of the BET cable network.

She didn't just grab political friends, or doctors, or entertainers, but is communicating a clear message that there are multiple ways to be a successful black woman.

Lisa Leslie's involvement is what caught my eye and her willingness to embrace her role as a black female role model is also impressive. However, when we put her in broader context of this group Michelle Obama has assembled, I think we understand a bit better how important the WNBA is in the context of women's history month; it's not just about equitable access to professional athletics in society, but part of a broader movement in shifting how we see black womanhood in this country.

So while the message of individual responsibility and hard work is problematic and I know as well as anyone that speaking engagements will likely not end up changing DC Public Schools, I applaud Obama, Leslie, Rashad, et al. for making this effort. And I am particularly impressed by Obama's recognition of herself within a historical continuum of black women who push to expand the boundaries of black womanhood.

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My All-WNBA Teams

Well the season is almost complete and now it's time to hand out those post season awards before the playoffs. I'll start with All-WNBA teams because I haven't done those before...and they will get me a step closer to figuring out my MVP candidates.

When I look back at the past All-WNBA teams I don't see any positional requirements so this is truly my top 10 players from the season, plus an honorable mention third team.

I'm going to use statistics to justify, but not determine, my choices. I'd be interested in seeing other people's picks and their justifications as well. The three statistics I looked at were Model Estimated Value, plus/minus, and efficiency rating. Rather than going strictly by the rankings, I just used these to sort out who deserved to make the cut.

** The plus/minus numbers used here are from games through September 7th.

All-WNBA Second Team

Deanna Nolan

There should be no doubt that Nolan deserves All-WNBA recognition. Even though I'm not a big fan of the Shock, I really enjoy watching Nolan play. She's one of those players that goes about the game in an almost business-like fashion just doing what she has to do to help her team win, whether that be scoring or distributing the ball.

She didn't put up particularly gaudy statistics this season -- statistically, Jia Perkins had a better season. But she was right within range of the top players in every category. One thing does stand out however -- she shot 46% from the field. That's phenomenal for a guard who takes as many contested jump shots as Nolan does.

The reason I put Nolan on my team is that I don't think you can disregard the intangibles she brings to the Shock in terms of leadership and consistency. It comes down to this question -- if it comes down to one shot at the end of the game, who am I going to trust with the ball? Nolan can create her own shot off the dribble from anywhere on the court, make smart decisions with the ball, and make the right pass if she can't get off a shot.

Janel McCarville

As I've written before, it's hard not to like McCarville's game. She's tough inside, she's smart, and she's shown the ability to face up her defender and take her to the basket. She ranked 9th in MEV and 9th in efficiency rating which pretty much sealed the deal for me. She's also consistently been one of the best defensive post players statistically.

What I like best about her though is her passing ability. Having a post player that can make good decisions with the ball and be a central element of the offense is a huge asset. She's first among centers in assists per 40 minutes which means she is doing a relatively good job of finding others from the post. And again, you can't disregard the intangibles -- the fire and passion she brings to the court has been invaluable on a number of occasions. She's just a great player.

Sue Bird

For all the talk about her late season rise, she's consistently been at the top of the plus/minus rankings all season. And with Lauren Jackson out after the Olympic break she just picked it up a notch. Through last week, her plus/minus rating was +20.7.

Bird is a combo guard in the true sense of the word who can easily shift between scoring and distributing depending on what her team needs. It's been impressive to see how well she made the switch from a pure distributor to a scorer in Lauren Jackson's absence.

She could easily be the most dominant player in the league with her skill set, but instead chooses to pick her spots and make her teammates better. Perhaps Jackson's injury was just a nice little reminder of just how good she is.

Ashja Jones

The best way to describe Jones: dominant post player. She has an array of post moves and seems to score almost any way she chooses to. She had the 7th highest plus/minus rating and the 9th highest efficiency rating.

I didn't really take notice of Jones till the second half of the season, possibly because I was always so focused on Lindsay Whalen. But while Whalen has been described as the engine that makes the team go by Mike Thibault, it's quite clear to me that they would not be where they are without Jones.

Lisa Leslie

Leslie is in my mind the Defensive Player of the Year. She anchors LA's defense which has been one of the best in the league all year and when she leaves the game there's a noticeable difference. But she's also been huge offensively combining with Candace Parker to create a deadly high-low post game.

Statistically, she was 8th in MEV ratings and 4th in efficiency rating. It's hard to keep her off the first team, but there are so many great players there, that Leslie fell to second

All-WNBA First Team

Lindsay Whalen

If it weren't for Sue Bird's second half performance, Whalen would be by far the best point guard in the WNBA this season. She does everything -- she can score, distribute, rebound, and plays the angles so well that she's hard to stop. Like Bird, she tends to spend a lot of time trying to set up teammates which makes her appear passive, but as a point guard, that's a valuable asset.

In terms of the numbers, she's 4th in MEV and 5th in efficiency, making her the most productive point guard in the league. In my opinion, she could be putting up better numbers but in Connecticut's system individual performance seems to be subordinated to team performance so she often just comes down the court and gets her team into the offense rather than trying to immediately make a play. Like Bird though, it's not a bad thing -- she just has the ability to shift from a distributor to scorer whenever she needs to do so.

Seimone Augustus

She's a scorer who seems to be able to get to wherever she wants on the court. Any shooting guard who can score 19 points per game on 47% shooting is impressive. And like Nolan, those are mostly contested jump shots.

But what's most impressive is that for a player who is such a volume scorer, she can also defend and make her teammates better. Her plus/minus rating of +18.4 is second only to Sue Bird. She also ranks 10th in efficiency rating and 12th in MEV. She's quickly becoming one of the best all-around players in the league.

Sophia Young

Easily one of my top MVP candidates, she's a player who gets the job done quietly, but does so as one of the most efficient and productive players in the league. She ranks high in MEV, plus/minus, and efficiency rating. She's an athletic inside-out post threat who can also defend well, although she's occasionally giving up a few inches to her opponent. It's difficult not to like what Young has done this season really.

Diana Taurasi

Love her game. I have already written about why I think she's arguably the best player in the league here.

Candace Parker

Duh.

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The X-Factor in the MVP Debate: How Do We Measure Defense?

As the WNBA’s regular season draws to a close, the MVP is heating up and there are a number of worthy candidates which makes the discussion both difficult and exciting.

But usually the MVP discussion occurs without regard for defense. Usually people compare basic stats like points, rebounds, and assists or occasionally more subjective assessments like clutch play or relative ability to carry a team. In the previous MVP rankings posted here, I used plus/minus as something of a catch-all statistic for net impact, but that is by no means a strong indicator of defense.

Conceptually the argument for taking defense into account is simple – the game is played at both ends of the floor and theoretically the most valuable player would be able to contribute to offensive and defensive production. An argument could be made that the MVP is purely an offensive award, but for the sake of argument let’s a assume that good defenders are of more value to a team that poor defenders.

But the reason defense rarely enters into these conversations should be obvious – it’s difficult to impossible to make reasonable defensive comparisons between players. It’s difficult to parse out the influence of team defensive strategy from the measurable aspects of defense and it would require hours of game to make a valid comparison of defensive intangibles.

Nevertheless, just to make the MVP arguments a little more interesting, I’ll revisit the defensive player of year rankings with a change that might make it easier to judge a player’s individual defensive contribution. One problem is that not all defensive statistics are created equal. So to address that, I’ll borrow the weights for blocks, rebounds, steals, and personal fouls used in David Sparks’ metric for overall NBA productivity while also taking into account plus/minus numbers and the strength of a player’s team.

By looking at individual box score stats, team stats, and on/off court stats, I hope to arrive at a better way to account for defense during MVP discussions and evaluate candidates for the Defensive Player of the Year award.

A brief explanation of Sparks’ Model Estimated Value statistic

When I previously looked at defensive statistics I used a combination of four statistics including something I called “defensive versatility”, which was based on a combination of a player’s block percentage, defensive rebound percentage, and steal percentage.

The advantage of percentage statistics, so I thought, was that they look at the percentage of plays on which a player makes a defensive contribution, which helps to adjust for minutes played (though not pace).

And in order to reward players that get lots of blocks and steals without fouling, I used a metric called “personal foul efficiency” to evaluate see the ratio of blocks and steals to personal fouls.

The problem with that system is that it assumes blocks, defensive rebounds, and steals are equal and thus valued equally when combined to evaluate versatility. So how do we take into account the actual value of these statistics?

David Sparks created the Model Estimated Value (MEV) statistic as an effort to measure overall productivity of players (you can read more on that here). In the process, he looked at the contribution of box score statistics to team scoring margin and came up with a list of weights for every statistics – including blocks, defensive rebounds, steals, and personal fouls.

Here are the weights that Sparks came up with:

drebs 0.5115741
stls 1.6032249
blks 0.9811934
pf -0.2251647

While some have critiqued MEV for not taking defense into account, I’m going to borrow those weights in order to come up with measure an individual player’s defensive contribution to victory. Of course, these numbers were created in relation to the entirety of a player’s box score statistics, so these numbers are probably at least a little inaccurate...not to mention that they are based on NBA numbers.

So for the sake of this analysis, I’ll call this number “estimated defensive value”. The formula is as follows:

dreb * .511 + stls * 1.60 + blks * .98 + pf * -.22

And since I am comparing players who have played different minutes on different teams, I adjusted it to make it a metric to measure production per 40 minutes.

((dreb * .511 + stls * 1.60 + blks * .98 + pf * -.22)/minutes) * 40

The process

So I took three statistics – defensive plus/minus, defensive value, defensive contribution (which is an approximation of the player’s contribution to their team’s defensive dynamics rating) and ranked 15 of the top MVP candidates in each category. There will be some worthy candidates missing of course, but I’m sure someone will let me know if there’s a missing player.

As a reminder, here’s how defensive contribution is calculated as described previously:

The goal is to get a (very) rough estimate of the player’s contribution to their team’s defensive success per minute.

First, I took the percentage of team minutes that each player played. Second, I (and Excel) looked at their team’s defensive rating and figured out how many points above average it was – a below average team got negative points to help create a hierarchy of contributions. So then I (er, Excel) multiplied the percentage of team minutes by the points above/below average to get a player’s contribution to their team’s defensive rating. It’s not perfect – certain players are playing big minutes because of their offensive prowess. However, combined with defensive plus/minus, you get a sense of how much they played and how effective they were doing it.

The only difference is that now I’m using the defensive dynamics rating I use to calculate defense, which is loosely based on Dean Oliver’s four factors.

The numbers

The results are interesting and I think strengthen the arguments for a few of the MVP candidates…particularly one who continues to be overlooked in the popular debate. Here are the 15 players I started with:

Augustus
Bird
Dupree
Hammon
Jones
Leslie
McCarville
Nolan
Parker
Perkins
Taurasi
Thompson
Wauters
Whalen
Young, Sophia

I ranked each player 1-15 and with the top player in each category getting 15 points and the lowest getting 1 point. The following are the top five in each designated defensive category:

Top 5 Defensive Value/40

1. Lisa Leslie 9.99
2. Candace Parker 8.49
3. Janel McCarville 7.073
4. Ann Wauters 7.072
5. Candice Dupree 6.60

Top 5 On/Off Defensive Plus/Minus

1. Janel McCarville +6.2
2. Seimone Augustus +4.1
3. Lisa Leslie +3.1
4. Sue Bird +1.8
5. Sophia Young +.9

Top 5 Defensive Contribution

1. Becky Hammon 1.36
2. Sophia Young 1.27
3. Ann Wauters 1.17
4. Sue Bird 1.17
5. Candace Parker 1.05

**The raw numbers were acquired from Dougstats.com and the plus/minus numbers are from the Lynx Net Plus/Minus and statistics page.

And here are the totals – the top 5 defensive players among the most talked about MVP candidates:

Top 10 Total Points

1. Leslie 38
2. Young 34
3. Parker 34
4. McCarville 34
5. Wauters 33
6. Bird 25
7. Jia Perkins 21
8. Asjha Jones 21
9. Dupree 20
10. Whalen 19

By no means are these numbers definitive, but it adds to the argument for two of the top 5 candidates from my last MVP rankings – Sophia Young and Candace Parker. Young was ahead in the last rankings, tied with Taurasi, so you could also argue that Young deserves the MVP more than Taurasi based on defensive impact.

It does seem biased toward big players, but really, that’s not surprising – given that basketball is a game where the goal is 10 feet high, bigger players should be more effective at defending the basket.

Conclusion: How much of a factor should defense be in the MVP award?

I’ll allow others to make claims about what this actually means for the MVP race, but I think it sheds some light on a few things, though I’m left with a few questions.

First, how can we balance defensive and offensive production when considering MVP candidates? Should a poor defender be eliminated from consideration as we often subconsciously eliminate poor offensive players?

Second, since most people start with offensive statistics to choose MVP candidates, is there a strong defensive player that we’re ignoring?

Third, how do we take into account the difference between positions among defensive players when considering defense as a factor.

And fourth, do these rankings pass the "laugh test"? For example, do we really buy the idea that Bird is a better defensive player than Whalen? Whalen has a higher defensive value while Bird is last among MVP candidates. Conversely, Bird has a much better on/off plus/minus while Whalen has a -5.2.

And ultimately, the latter question is the problem with trying to assess defense statistically -- it's even harder to capture defensive intangibles. But it's worth a try if we want to make even stronger MVP arguments.

Transition Points:

A note on Sue Bird: There’s been plenty of talk about Sue Bird as an MVP candidate recently due to her performance with Jackson out. And as you might already know, I’m a fan of Bird’s game. So what might considering defense do for her?

If she’s the top defensive guard among the popular candidates, then perhaps it makes the argument that she deserves consideration. However, I still think it’s difficult to make an argument for Bird over Parker, Young or even Augustus and Whalen – all have done a lot for their teams and one could argue Augustus and Whalen have done more for their teams over the course of the entire season.

My MVP list is definitely shortening by the day and that will just make the end of the season more fun to watch…

Lisa Leslie as DPOY? The numbers still point to Leslie as the Defensive Player of the Year and observation always seems to support that. She's a huge presence in the post and really anchors the Sparks' defense on most nights.

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The Cultural Significance of Lisa Leslie's Olympic Success

I was watching Around the Horn yesterday and the first question was about the significance of the “Redeem Team’s” gold medal.

The brief conversation pretty much went as one would expect, including Kevin Blackistone commenting that they should be called the “Self-Esteem Team”.

But I would have liked to hear more people weigh in on the significance of Lisa Leslie’s fourth consecutive gold medal. There’s a significance to Leslie’s legacy that extends beyond basketball – and it is not just that she is a role model for young girls and aspiring female athletes.

She is a black female role model and a winner, which has been a rarity in the mainstream media for anyone not named Oprah.

And as a black female athlete who has publicly embraced her responsibility as a role model, Leslie was a great Olympic story and continues to be a great WNBA story.

Leslie manages to represent so much simultaneously – a role model, the success of Title IX, and the success of the women’s sports movement to this point. And she does it all with grace and humility. So when she passes the torch, she’s passing on more than a legacy on the court, but one of the most underrated cultural icons that has never gotten enough attention in the mainstream media.

A representation of Title IX success

Cathy Young of Reason Magazine writes that “It's an article of faith among advocates of women's sports that the remarkable growth in women's athletics over the past quarter century has been the fruit of Title IX…” And as a founding member of the most prominent women’s professional sports league, Leslie might be the poster child of that success.

Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post wrote the following:

The next time some fool argues that Title IX should be rewritten, just show them the highlights of the U.S. women's basketball team at this Olympics, and of Lisa Leslie in particular.

Twelve years of playing for her country, never a single loss, and four gold medals. Think she was worth the funding?

With so much focus on the impact of Title IX on intercollegiate sports, I think the impact on academics often go overlooked. So I’m a little wary of how people reduce the value of Title IX to a matter of sports legislation.

Nevertheless, I do think women’s sports serve a unique function within the broader Title IX agenda and Leslie represents that well. As perhaps the most concrete and visible example of Title IX success in the public sphere, women’s sports – and particularly the WNBA – might represent a means by which to rally people around broader women’s issues.

Of course, there is still plenty of progress that needs to be made toward gender equity in sports, despite increased participation from women. Brett Zarda of ESPN the Magazine writes that men typically receive significantly more prime time coverage than women in the Olympics. And unfortunately, that disparity in coverage continues after the Olympics.

But staying in the moment, Leslie’s individual success, her role in advancing women’s sports as part of the WNBA, and her participation on among the most dominant Olympic teams ever, make her a relatively easy figure to rally around and celebrate the progress that has been made and inspire further progress.

A strong role model for little girls everywhere

As rare as it is for black female role models to garner positive mainstream media attention, this week we’ve had the pleasure of seeing two shine on major stages: Lisa Leslie and Michelle Obama.

I know that seems like an awfully distant connection but if you look closely a close analysis of the function they each play as a role model reveals similarity.

Obviously, Leslie and Obama have pursued very different careers. But as articulate, educated, and successful black women they both represent dreams of success for black women that seemed unattainable only a few decades ago.

Look closely at Obama’s words from her Democratic National Convention speech last night and you see her articulating what Leslie’s Olympic success exemplifies.

And Barack and I set out to build lives guided by these values, and pass them on to the next generation. Because we want our children - and all children in this nation - to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.

Honestly, I acknowledge that the speech was somewhat cliché and clearly design to construct a more palatable political image for Michelle Obama, much to the dismay of some critics. But the inescapable theme of the speech is one of hope and empowerment.

Leslie embodies the spirit that Obama speaks of and has taken on that same responsibility as a role model in her own right. She captures that with her words in a 2006 WNBA.com article about the 10th anniversary of her first gold in Atlanta:

It's been amazing, this opportunity to be a role model… Plus, the ability to inspire young girls and women to want to be professional basketball players as well as going back to school are opportunities that I have embraced and feel a lot of gratitude to have been able to accomplish.

Whether they are inspiring young girls to go into politics or women’s basketball, what's important that they are both expanding the range of possibilities conceivable for young black girls. Just as Leslie helped to change the face of women’s sports as a WNBA pioneer, Obama is on the cusp of the opportunity to be part of a major shift in the way we perceive black women in politics.

But more importantly, both of them appear to do it with a grace and strength that almost makes it look easy to bear such a heavy burden. Why wouldn’t we want our youth to emulate the model they set forward? Kim McLarin at TheRoot.com describes the model of woman hood that Obama represents in words that could easily be used to describe Leslie.

Her sense of self comes across as being as natural a part of her as her beautiful skin or her bold and funky walk. It is a birthright, immutable and clear. For a woman—especially a black woman, especially a black woman who did not grow up clutching either the silver spoon of wealth and privilege, or the silver spoon of a normative kind of beauty—to possess such an unshakable sense of self is, as my grandmother would say, something! It is also something not often seen in America. Which is precisely the reason Michelle Obama has sparked the reactions that she has.

The way Leslie has represented the U.S. in the Olympics and as an icon for women’s basketball exudes a seemingly natural sense of self and sense of purpose, unshakable by the world around her.

However, none of this is to say that we have arrived at a post-racist or post-sexist society. But as Mallika Chopra describes, it is important to celebrate the accomplishments of these positive black women for the sake of our youth and a reminder of what’s possible when we continue to challenge structural barriers that limit blacks and women.

And it’s those narratives of continuing to dream and fight despite the odds that make both women’s stories particularly important additions to mainstream understandings of what it means to be a U.S. citizen and the challenges that plenty of people still face. Ding at Bitch, Ph.D. speaks to what Obama’s narrative means to black women.

What I'm hearing in her speech is the same narrative that I, and other people of color like me, have lived. It's familiar to us. It's a narrative, however, that mainstream America still cannot believe about communities of color; like the Mark Penns of this country, mainstream America can't grasp the fact that black, brown or non-white people have the same American dream as they and that they have lived by that dream and hoped for the day when their lives as full Americans would be acknowledged.

I was saying to a friend today that people of color are the last idealists in this country. Fundamentally, we believe - despite the slights and the snubs and the daily presence of racism - that the Great American Story of fairness, hard work and reward for that hard work still has the possibility to exist.

When Leslie celebrates those four gold medals around her neck she’s not just inspiring the next Candace Parker or Sylvia Fowles, but she's representing a narrative of life in U.S. society that so often goes unheard and misunderstood -- the actualization of seemingly impossible dreams.

Conclusion: Part of something bigger than basketball?

Young wrote the following in 2001 about the cultural implications of women’s sports:

Women's sports do have revolutionary cultural implications. This isn't just about equity for little girls but about a vision of womanhood that includes sweat and strength, competitiveness and even ferocity. One could say that this is feminism at its best -- it revels in female power and accomplishment, instead of wallowing in victimhood.

In Young’s terms, Lisa Leslie has become among the most enduring example of female athletic power and accomplishment that we have in U.S. society today, the accomplishments of past female athletes notwithstanding.

But having said all of this, I think it’s also important to point out that Leslie is not perfect in terms of shifting perceptions of women in society – the barriers still exist for black women, but Leslie had the right combination of ability, beauty, and intelligence to succeed. And with that caveat some may have legitimate critiques.

First, due to her exceptional qualities, she has succeeded in spite of racism and sexism whereas many other black women still face barriers. And second, as a former model, she still represents elements of the traditional beauty ideal that favors a very narrow definition of femininity.

Nevertheless, I think the best way to understand Leslie is as part of an ongoing “revolutionary” process that will be carried forward by the next generation, currently embodied by Fowles and Parker, among others. People like Leslie have opened doors and created new opportunities for women, but it will take a collective effort to realize a society in which women can participate equitably once they walk through those doors.

Although the WNBA is first and foremost a business, with women like Leslie creating a foundation for future generations, it could develop into something of a modern women’s movement by embodying a new vision of womanhood for young girls. But for now, instead of critiquing the WNBA for what it has not achieved politically, I think it’s worth celebrating for the accomplishments of accomplished women like Leslie.

Relevant Links:

Dreamy: Leslie says American women have earned name, too
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/beijing/basketball/2008-08-24-basketball-women_N.htm

Thoughts on a Black First Lady in Waiting
http://www.hnn.us/articles/53429.html

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Looking Past Olympic Prelims, Team USA Needs To Improve Rebounding

It can be difficult to critique U.S. women's basketball team given that they have blown out their opponents by an average of 47 points in three preliminary games.

Yet despite their dominance, a number of players have pointed out that rebounding – particularly preventing their opponents from getting offensive rebounds – is a key area to work on. DeLisha Milton-Jones addressed the issue and why it’s important after the China game:

You can always get better. One thing that we stressed at half-time was that China had a lot of offensive rebounds. They were able to get put-backs and that put us in trouble because normally in that situation you end up fouling.

Although they ended up beating China on the offensive boards 16-10, Mali managed to get nearly 40% of the available offensive rebounds and totaled 15 offensive rebounds to Team USA’s 7.

It might seem like nitpicking considering they beat Mali by 56 points, however it was a problem that hurt them against Australia in the championship game of the Diamond Ball tournament. And if it leads to increased fouls as Milton-Jones said, then Australia is a team that can beat them from the free throw line – Australia went 17 for 19 from the free throw line in that game.

In Team USA’s defense, Mali is apparently a good offensive rebounding team and Lisa Leslie commented that they’re still trying out different defensive schemes.

I thought playing against Mali would be tough because they offensive board so well. We really wanted to try and put a lot of pressure on them and we got a chance to work on a lot of different defenses and that really helped us. We’re looking forward to (playing) Spain, you just never know what defense you’re going to need so we got a good chance to review them all.

So it’s possible that in experimenting with different defenses, they missed an occasional rebounding assignment that led to an inflated number of offensive rebounds. It’s also possible that Mali got more offensive rebounds because they only made 25% of their shots – with more missed shots, it makes sense that there would be more offensive rebounds.

But offensive rebounding is generally about effort so the fact that it’s cropping up as a problem despite the fact that they have such talented interior players is reason for concern. Hopefully, it’s something that they can work out as they play more games before they play Australia again.

Transition Points:

One thing Team USA has improved upon since the Diamond Ball tournament is their ball control, increasing their ball movement and decreasing their turnovers. Against Mali, their assisted field goal percentage was almost 44% and they only had 10 turnovers. Conversely, Mali’s assisted field goal percentage was only 12.5% and they had 29 turnovers, 12 of which were steals by Team USA.

Relevant Links:

Additional Quotes: USA 97, Mali 41
http://www.usabasketball.com/news.php?news_page=08_woly_03_quotes

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Olympic Break All-Defensive Teams Yield Surprises: A Vet and A Rookie Sleeper

I didn’t know a whole lot about Morenike Atunrase before I found her name leading all guards in blocks per 40 minutes the other day.

Apparently, Atunrase is not just one of those bench players who puts up inflated per minute stats in limited garbage minutes either – she’s an important part of the San Antonio Silver Stars. From the Express-News:

She’s only averaging 2.5 points and 11 minutes a game, but she’s flashed that potential in several key moments.

The 5-foot-10 Atunrase has had the task of guarding Phoenix’s Diana Taurasi and Cappie Pondexter, Detroit’s Deanna Nolan and Atlanta’s Betty Lennox, some of the WNBA’s top scorers.

“They’re good, but I really don’t look at their name on their jersey,” Atunrase said. “I just go out and defend, and that’s something I’ve always taken pride in.

“You just really have to be smart and know how to play them.”

Similarly, Sheryl Swoopes has demonstrated defensive smarts with the Seattle Storm, although she’s at the opposite end of her career. There may be some doubts about Swoopes’ defense given her age and health, but if you’ve watched her this season, she still plays good position defense and plays well within a team defense concept. From the Seattle Storm website earlier this year:

"It's going to be nice to be on her team," Agler said. "I've been on the opposite side, watching her play and disrupt offenses for her whole career. She has great instincts defensively, both on the ball and away from the ball, which not many people have. To incorporate her abilities into what we want to do is going to be exciting for me as a coach."

The core defensive qualities that Swoopes and Atunrase possess – anticipation, effort, footwork, and instincts – are tough to capture statistically. That’s not to mention the role that pure strength and position have in interior defense. Add to that the fact that the television cameras rarely focus on off the ball defensive effort and it’s especially difficult for fans to evaluate players defensively.

However, when I went through the process of trying to identify the league’s best defensive players these two came up near the top of the list. Surprised? I was too…but I think either could make a sound argument for making the WNBA All-Defensive team this year using a few statistics that go beyond blocks, rebounds, and steals per game.

So here’s an attempt to put those numbers together and present the leading candidates for the WNBA All-Defensive teams and the Defensive Player of the Year.

(To see the final rankings, skip down to the section titled "The All-Defensive Teams and Nominees for Defensive Player of the Year" at the bottom)

In search of the best defenders

Similar to the rankings I’ve done previously on point guards and rookies, the goal here is to construct informed arguments for the strongest defensive players at each position rather than just choosing the best overall. However it is a bit more difficult considering the dearth of defensive stats…even just choosing the candidates.

To identify potential candidates, I borrowed selection criteria that David Nelson and Damien Walker used to select the NBA Defensive Player of the Year. In particular, I looked at previous defensive award winners and the defensive reputation of players based on Rebkell posts and media reports.

Next I went to the statistics. I identified players who ranked in the top 5 at their position in blocks, rebounds, or steals per 40 minutes, as listed on WNBA.com. Then I looked at defensive plus/minus leaders as posted by p_d_swanson at Rebkell. To choose players, I looked for those that were dominant (leaders in a statistical category) or versatile (players ranked in the top 5 in more than one category) and picked them as finalists.

Finally, I divided those players into four position types: point guard, wing (shooting guard + small forward), power forwards, and centers. I then added additional players who only appeared in one category to fill out the list and bring it to about 40. To narrow them down I looked to additional statistics.

Percentage Statistics

It seems that percentage statistics say a lot more about defense than a player’s average numbers. Block percentage, rebound percentage, and steal percentage tell us how often a player makes a defensive play when they are on the court. I like to think of these statistics as a measure of how disruptive a player is on the defensive end.

So after using averages to select the initial list, I used percentages to narrow it down. To keep the list balanced, I wanted to have at least five point guards, 10 wings, five power forwards, and five centers to make an initial list of 25. Players that clearly had no chance of being in the top 3 at their position were dropped. Then I used another five spots to include players based on reputation or previous awards to bring the total to 30: 10 wings, 8 centers, 7 power forwards, and 5 point guards.

So after all that, I was finally ready to figure out who the best defenders are.

Four statistical categories: Some established, some invented

The statistical categories I used are designed to capture as many elements of individual defense as possible.

Defensive plus/minus tells us how well the team’s opponent did when a given player was on the court and off the court. It’s a way to approximate a player’s defensive impact. A positive number would indicate that her team did better with her on the court.

Personal foul efficiency is an expanded version of the stl/pf and blk/pf stats available at WNBA.com looking at (steals+blocks)/personal fouls. Since we’re looking at players who are adept at getting steals and blocks, it’s nice to know if they can do so without fouling.

Defensive versatility: This is a “made up” statistic, but is derived from John Hollinger’s versatility statistic that looks at the cube root of points x rebounds x assists. Instead, I look here at the cube root of block% x rebound% x steal %. The results end up being almost identical to what they would be if you just ranked players in all three categories. It’s just helpful to have one number to look at.

Defensive contribution: This is completely made up but designed to give additional credit to players who contribute to the success of good defensive teams, even if their stats are a little lower. The goal is to get a (very) rough estimate of the player’s contribution to their team’s defensive success per minute.

First, I took the percentage of team minutes that each player played. Second, I (and Excel) looked at their team’s defensive rating and figured out how many points above average it was – a below average team got negative points to help create a hierarchy of contributions. So then I (er, Excel) multiplied the percentage of team minutes by the points above/below average to get a player’s contribution to their team’s defensive rating. It’s not perfect – certain players are playing big minutes because of their offensive prowess. However, combined with defensive plus/minus, you get a sense of how much they played and how effective they were doing it.

The Rankings

Each measure has it limitations, but overall, I think the results bring us closer to identifying the league’s best defensive players than the standard practice of using subjective combinations of rebounds, steals, and assists. So here are the top players in each category, as well as the leaders in the percentage stats (which compose the defensive versatility statistic).

DEFENSIVE PLUS/MINUS  PLAYER PLUS/MINUS  Sanford, Nakia 10.1  Jackson, Lauren 6.4  Atunrase, Morenike 6.0  Swoopes, Sheryl 5.8  McCarville, Janel 5.8  Snow, Michelle 5.6  Ford, Cheryl 5.6  Augustus, Seimone 5.2

DEFENSIVE CONTRIBUTION  PLAYER D. CONT.  Douglas, Katie 118.72  Sutton-Brown, Tammy 96.31  Bevilaqua, Tully 83.20  Catchings, Tamika 58.10  Young, Sophia 55.84  Jackson, Lauren 53.29  Wauters, Ann 50.77  Parker, Candace 48.28

DEFENSIVE VERSATILITY  PLAYER DEF. VERS.  Lyttle, Sancho 9.14  Leslie, Lisa 8.11  Anosike, Nicky 7.52  Pringle, LaToya 6.97  Parker, Candace 6.63  McCarville, Janel 6.25  Jackson, Lauren 6.25  Wauters, Ann 5.77

PERSONAL FOUL EFFICIENCY  PLAYER PF EFF.  Atunrase, Morenike 1.36  Leslie, Lisa 1.28  Douglas, Katie 1.25  Parker, Candace 1.18  Swoopes, Sheryl 1.12  Wauters, Ann 1  Augustus, Seimone 1  McCarville, Janel .98

DEFENSIVE REBOUND PERCENTAGE PLAYER DREB% Lyttle, Sancho 39.13 Ford, Cheryl 34.71 Wauters, Ann 34.71 Leslie, Lisa 31.56 Parker, Candace 31.49 Snow, Michelle 31.19 Brunson, Rebekkah 29.67 Sutton-Brown, Tammy 28.29

BLOCK PERCENTAGE PLAYER BLK% Pringle, LaToya 9.99 Leslie, Lisa 7.08 Lyttle, Sancho 5.23 Sutton-Brown, Tammy 5.19 Parker, Candace 4.82 Jackson, Lauren 4.04 Atunrase, Morenike 3.49 Anosike, Nicky 3.36

STEAL PERCENTAGE PLAYER STL% Hornbuckle, Alexis 5.31 Anosike, Nicky 4.65 Penicheiro, Ticha 4.31 Catchings, Tamika 4.13 Lyttle, Sancho 3.72 Bevilaqua, Tully 3.38 McCarville, Janel 3.30 Swoopes, Sheryl 3.10

The All-Defensive Teams and Nominees for Defensive Player of the Year

Point guards

Honorable mention: Vickie Johnson (49)

Second team: Ticha Penicheiro (49)

First team: Tully Bevilaqua (60)

Point guards didn’t fare well in these rankings as rebounds and blocks are statistics for bigger players, so it’s interesting that all three of these players are veterans with a positive defensive plus/minus. I separated them from the wings because generally point guards are guarding players who are good ball handlers and mostly initiate the offense meaning the opportunity for gaudy box score statistics decreases. Some of the most effective point guard defense comes from just pressuring the ball and forcing opponents to use up shot clock (the classic example to me is when Scottie Pippen guarded point guard Mark Jackson in the 1998 playoffs and completely shut him down). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhSBTI-txak&fmt=18

Vickie Johnson is another player having a surprisingly good year defensively. She’s second among point guards in defensive rebounding and she doesn’t foul very often. But what consistently impresses me about Johnson is her toughness and aggression on both ends of the floor. She’s quick and knows how to play the game.

Penicheiro makes the cut on the strength of a strong steal percentage and she also does so while keeping the fouls to a minimum. But like Johnson and Bevilaqua, the key for Penicheiro’s defense is her basketball intelligence and playing smart defense rather than physically dominating her opponent.

Wing players

Honorable mention: Seimone Augustus (55) and Morenike Atunrase (93)

Second team: Alexis Hornbuckle (62) and Tamika Catchings (63)

First team: Katie Douglas (67) and Sheryl Swoopes (91)

Whoa – that’s right…that 93 next to Atunrase’s name is not a typo. But the reason I put her as honorable mention is that she only plays 10 minutes per game, usually to lock down the other team’s best player. If you’ve watched her play, you might know why she made the list – she plays with tons of energy and is an impressive stopper for a rookie.

Her energy on the defensive end is perhaps what helped her earn a defensive plus/minus of +6.0, which ranked 3rd among defensive candidates. I didn’t expect this, but she is almost definitely a defensive diamond in the rough and if she keeps it up, she might be a perennial first team candidate.

The other two surprising players for me were Sheryl Swoopes and Seimone Augustus. Augustus is known for her offensive skill, but she’s also becoming an excellent defender as she has prepared for the Olympics.
http://www.sportsline.com/worldsports/story/10913209/rss

"Everyone knows what I can do on the offensive end, so defense is key to my role on this team," said Augustus, fourth in the WNBA with nearly 20 points per game. "We have enough people who can score, I just know when my number is called that I need to be able to stop someone."

She doesn’t put up big box score numbers defensively, but like Swoopes she does play excellent position defense. She gets in a good defensive stance, moves her feet well and does a good job of preventing her opponent from beating her to the basket. That is probably why her defensive plus/minus is currently at a +5.2. She’s a perfect example of how box score statistics only tell half the truth and she’s not the only one.

Against the Lynx on July 27th, Sheryl Swoopes matched up with Augustus and was primarily responsible for keeping Augustus scoreless in the first half (Swoopes then left the game due to injury). It was a great example of how defense is as much about basketball intelligence as physical ability. Swoopes missed the All-Defensive team last year, but perhaps there Seattle’s system – as well as the presence of Yolanda Griffith (5th ranked center) and Lauren Jackson – allow a smart defender like Swoopes to stand out even more.

Watching Augustus and Swoopes go at it defensively was one of the best silent battles you’ll see. If Augustus got the ball, Swoopes just didn’t let her go anywhere. Every time Augustus shot the ball, there was a hand in her face. And vice versa when Swoopes was on offense. In fact, neither even got a clean shot off unless someone else was guarding them.

Power Forwards

Honorable mention: Sancho Lyttle (80)

Second team: Candace Parker (80)

First team: Lauren Jackson (97)

Again, two surprises here. Lyttle is rarely discussed as a great defensive player, but the stats tell a different story. She was the most versatile player among defensive candidates, but does so in limited minutes meaning she doesn’t show up on the per game leader boards very often. What I particularly like about Lyttle is her energy on defense – she’s active and had the highest defensive rebounding percentage among forwards and the second highest block percentage.

Parker offense and dunking gets all the attention, but her defense might be underrated. She could become the best help defender in the league within a couple of years, if not already. That’s high praise for a player that could simply rest on her offensive laurels. She’s not quite as versatile as Lyttle, but with Leslie and DeLisha Milton-Jones also grabbing rebounds, there’s not as much opportunity for her – yet she still ranks 1st in defensive rebounds per game and 2nd in blocks…behind Leslie. Parker doesn’t get many steals and has a negative defensive plus/minus, but she clearly has promise as a defender.

Centers

Honorable mention: Ann Wauters (77)

Second team: Janel McCarville (83)

First team: Lisa Leslie (98)

Other than Leslie, the centers surprised me – I definitely would have expected Sutton-Brown (4th among centers) or Nicky Anosike (6th among centers) to be in this group. But when you look at the numbers, Wauters and McCarville are having very good seasons on above average defensive teams. It would also seem that both are also able to take up space in the paint, which helps defensively.

Wauters is fourth in the league in blocks per game and 10th in defensive rebounds per game, which makes her a versatile defensive player. Most importantly, she’s able to block those shots while keeping the fouls relatively low with a personal foul efficiency of 1.00.

McCarville is less dominant defensively, but more versatile her defensive rebound, block, and steal percentages were all in the top 10 among defensive candidates. She’s 10th in the WNBA in steals and like Wauters, she keeps the fouls low with an efficiency rating of .98. But what sets McCarville apart from the other top centers is her defensive plus/minus rating of +5.8 – that’s among the best in the WNBA and 4th among the defensive candidates. It would seem that McCarville has the intangibles and basketball intelligence that make her a solid defender.

Defensive Player of the Year

So we now have five nominees for defensive player of the year, by position: Bevilaqua, Douglas, Jackson, Leslie, and Swoopes. As it turns out, Leslie, Jackson, and Swoopes are the three highest rated players (not including Atunrase, who is third ahead of Swoopes). Leslie and Jackson are separated by one point right now for the top spot and it’s hard to say who might be on top by the end of the season.

On the one hand, Jackson was out five games and the defensive contribution statistic was not done on a per game basis, but total minutes (it’s hard to say you’ve contributed if you missed games). That is of course unfair to Jackson as she missed games to represent her country. So with one point separating them, one could say Jackson deserves the top spot because she would be #1 had she not missed games.

However, I don't think awards should be given based upon hypotheticals. At this moment, Leslie is not only #1 right now, but she is also the backbone of the Sparks’ defense. I described this in a summary of the Sparks' home game against the Liberty how there was an 18 point swing when Leslie fouled out of the game. Leslie is also more versatile defensively, but fouls less.

So until the season ends, we’re left with a bunch of questions that will be fun to answer over the next few games or so: is Jackson or Leslie the DPOY? Should Morenike Atunrase get consideration for the All-Defensive team? How good can players like Lyttle and Atunrase become defensively? Are players like Deanna Nolan and Chelsea Newton having poor defensive years or just bad statistical years?

Transition points (added):

I would also have to nominate Sancho Lyttle for the Most Improved Player award (which I am not going to examine). A lot of times these most improved awards go to players who got an increase in minutes but had already displayed considerable skill (McCarville, for example, won the award after being traded and seeing an increase in minutes). Lyttle is one of those rare cases where it’s clear that her game actually improved rather than just getting more minutes. I think that makes it a tough award to hand out…and a firm handle on the stats really helps.

I had Deanna Nolan in my sights, but there was no statistical reason to keep her on this list. Her steal percentage is currently close to a career low (1.9%) and it has been dropping for each of the last 3 seasons. Furthermore, last year she had a 6.6 defensive plus/minus rating and this year she has a -4.6. So all in all, it seems Nolan is having an off year defensively.

This approach is unfair to DeLisha Milton-Jones. She’s not going to put up good defensive numbers playing next to Parker and Leslie. And she’s guarding perimeter players, which to my knowledge is not her strength. But then that’s part of the point of doing rankings this way -- it highlights some of these things.

Diana Taurasi deserves credit for role in the rover defense. When she turns up the pressure on the opposing ball handlers and picks them up above the three point line, it’s one of the best defenses in the league. The whole system completely falls apart when she’s out…but then again, it hasn’t worked so well when she’s in either.

Tammy Sutton-Brown is a very good defensive center and is next in line for an honorable mention behind Wauters. There are two reasons she isn’t ranked higher – first, her personal foul efficiency is lower than Leslie, McCarville and Wauters. Second, Leslie, McCarville, and Wauters are all more versatile defensively than Sutton-Brown – they all rank among the top 25 in steal percentage.

References:

I borrowed some ideas (and some HTML code) from the Nelson and Walker article at 82games.com.

All plus/minus statistics were gathered from the Lynx plus/minus site and a Rebkell post by p_d_swanson.

Defensive ratings were taken from the Storm Tracker site.


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