When the Washington Mystics face the Los Angeles Sparks tonight in Los Angeles it will include a match-up of two former Minnesota Lynx point guard teammates who are enjoying career years in their third season on new teams.
Last year, Mystics point guard Lindsey Harding and Sparks point guard Noelle Quinn split point guard duties in Minnesota and both experienced drop-offs in production from their rookie year in 2007. Both were among the worst shooters at the point guard position and both seemed to struggle coming up with consistent performances on the Lynx.
So perhaps sometimes a change of scenery is all that is needed.
Clearly, the similarities between these players only exists at the broadest level of analysis – not only are they very different types of point guards, but by any reasonable standard, Harding is by far the better player. Harding was a strong Rookie of the Year candidate in 2007 and a fringe All-Star this year.
Harding’s numbers are up across the board and combined with the athleticism that was previously limited due to injury – one commentator recently said it looks like she’s on ice skates on the fast break compared to everyone else – she has arguably been the best point guard in the East.
In contrast, Quinn is on the opposite end of the point guard spectrum. She has typically been the most basic of point guards, one that merely gets the ball over half court and initiates the offense.
But this season, Quinn has been much more than that for the point guard-starved Sparks. She has come up huge in fourth quarters (and overtimes) for the Sparks attacking the rim and loosening up defenses to give her four Olympian teammates room to operate.
Quinn is definitely not having an All-Star caliber season, definitely not the leader of her team, and she isn’t starting. But she has a role on the Sparks and she has fit it well.
Not too long after the Los Angeles Sparks traded for point guard Noelle Quinn, I asked the following question:
Which Noelle Quinn will the Sparks get – the one that was a rather efficient distributor in 2007 or the one that was a marginal initiator in 2008?
My thinking was that the Sparks were a great fit for Quinn because she would be able to fill a role that matches her capabilities and wouldn’t be expected to do anything beyond that given the number of talented players around her.
Really, that line of reasoning applies to both Quinn and Harding – Harding is playing a system and under a coach that seem to maximize her capabilities.
Honestly, Harding's whole mindset seems to have changed this year – last year she appeared to be much more focused on her own scoring -- and while it’s hard to account for that, it’s obvious that the 2009 Mystics are a much better fit for her than the 2008 Lynx.
Ultimately, when evaluating point guards it’s helpful to consider the context – what the player has demonstrated they are capable of and what role they fit on a team. If being a point guard is more than just creating assists, but making decisions that make teammates better and helping the team win, then the structure within which those decisions occur is important.
So these latest point guard rankings – my ongoing obsession – are an attempt to do all of that: evaluate decision making within the roles players fill, and how much they’re able to contribute to their teams. Coincidentally, it was Harding and Quinn that gave me the hardest time in the process.
Moving beyond the statistics…but keeping them close to my heart…
In my past rankings, I’ve just taken the critical statistical categories, ranked each point guard (and others who fill the lead guard role) and just added up the points.
However, that seemed to contradict my argument about point guard styles – if each player is different, then how could I possibly argue that I could judge them on one blanket standard?
For example, I fully admit that comparing Phoenix Mercury guard Temeka Johnson’s assist rate – the percentage of plays she makes that end in an assist – to Seattle Storm guard Sue Bird’s assist rate is unfair.
Bird is a point guard that also assumes a large portion of the Storm’s scoring burden and that’s because she is the better shooter and craftier scorer. Therefore, Johnson’s plays end in assists more often simply because she’s not asked to do other things as much.
But that’s hardly a knock on Johnson or a claim that she should do more. It’s just an argument that most knowledgeable sports fans are already familiar with: the numbers describe a fragment of the story, but don’t necessarily explain the entire story.
So what is to be done?
Bob Corwin of Full Court Press suggested I weight numbers. However, that still assumes that some point guard traits are more valuable than others, which I don’t think is always true. As Bird said in response to the suggestion that she is the best point guard in the world, part of being a good point guard is understanding “what’s needed and when”.
However, that does provide some guidance – it is fair to say that some styles of point guard objectively do more than others, not just do things differently.
Last week I revisited the point guard styles I created last year defining five types of point guard – initiator, distributor, facilitator, scorer, and combo guard. And if you look at how I defined those there is a clear hierarchy although each one of those styles can be effective within the right system.
For example, having a player that can create scoring opportunities for others is probably objectively a more skilled player than one whose limit is bringing the ball across half-court and initiating the offense. And I can also say that a player who’s able to balance scoring and creating for others is better than almost any other type of point guard.
So by looking at a) the relative quality of each point guard within their style, b) comparing players across styles, and c) looking at the influence of each player on the game given their style, I think I can find a more reasonable way to rank point guards.
So which players fit which styles? And then what?
I fit players into styles and ranked them based on four criteria:
1) Using the point guard styles framework described last week to categorize the league’s point guards and rank them based on their relative ability within those styles.
2) Using the previous framework for evaluating point guards – which evaluated players on the ability to distribute, score, and impact the game – as it applies to their style. So for example, in looking at distributors, I evaluated them primarily on their distributor statistics whereas I looked more at scoring statistics to rank scorers…and for combo guards I looked at both. I looked at their game impact of each style.
3) Using a standard that I drew from the rookie evaluation framework – a player’s ability to make plays (usage %) for their team efficiently (Chaiken scoring efficiency) while contributing to wins (Boxscores).
4) Defense: it matters. So I took that into account using a combination of observation and some numbers I’ve been playing with.
Yes, this is not exactly an example of statistical parsimony, but the constellation of statistics helps to describe overarching patterns in a player’s game and make arguments about why one player is better than another. In addition, there’s a much more subjective quality this time – I am looking at what the statistics describe and making judgments rather than allowing the numbers to explain themselves.
And another change – although I think players like Jia Perkins, Cappie Pondexter, and Tanisha Wright are very effective lead guards, the reality is that they are not usually the primary ball handlers when they are on the court. So I decided not to include them in the rankings, though all three of them compare very favorably to the players below, which is a testament to their quality as players.
So don’t fear math phobes – I actually did not rely entirely on the statistics to make my arguments. It’s just a way to complement my own observations/biases and describe each point guard’s play in terms that allow for comparisons.
The Rankings:
10. Noelle Quinn, Los Angeles Sparks – Initiator: Trust me this one strikes me as odd too. But the fact is, Quinn is having the best season of any initiator in the league. And when you compare her impact on the game to the lower tier of distributors or even combo guards who just don’t do anything particularly well, it’s easy to make the argument for her in this spot.
Quinn has emerged as a strong fourth quarter scorer for the Sparks recently, but overall she is more of an initiator who brings the ball up and passes it off. While her Sparks teammates are a large part of that, she actually fell in the initator category last year.
What sets her apart from the rest of the players in my mind are two things: scoring efficiency and defense. Quinn has the best two point percentage of the group and among the best efficiency ratios of the entire league.
9. Ticha Penicheiro, Sacramento Monarchs -- Distributor: She’s arguably the best point guard in WNBA history. And it’s hard not to include Penicheiro on the list even though her career is on the decline and I have to admit a major reason she’s here is that I’m biased: she’s the first WNBA player I ever saw play in person and I fell in love with her game.
However, as a distributor she’s still performing well and has one of the highest pure point ratings of any point guard. But what makes Penicheiro especially valuable as a distributor is that she is still one of the best ball handlers in the league and has the ability to penetrate and find open teammates. Her free throw rate is among the top third of the league and is by far the best of any other point guard that fits the distributor category.
8. Kristi Harrower, Los Angeles Sparks – Distributor: I know Sparks fans are not particularly fond of Harrower, but she’s really having a solid year in terms of distributing the ball from the point guard position.
The key to Harrower’s game is that she’s efficient – she doesn’t take a whole lot of risks (she has the second lowest turnover percentage among point guards) and makes solid decisions with the ball (highest pure point rating in the WNBA).
She is not the quickest, the best ball-handler, or the greatest defender. But in terms of a player who is able to bring the ball up the court and find players open for scoring opportunities she’s solid. And a team like the Sparks – which is already overflowing with talent – does not need a whole lot more than that.
If you were picking players based on reputation or overall talent, you might take Penicheiro over Harrower. However if you’re judging Harrower on performance within the Sparks system this season, there are not many point guards having a better season.
7. Loree Moore, New York Liberty – Distributor: Moore is not a player that immediately jumps to mind when I think about the league’s best point guards, but she’s having a solid year, on both ends of the ball. I’ll borrow a comment from Liberty forward Shameeka Christon from after their recent victory over the Sparks:"Loree Moore was the difference in the second half for us,'' Christon said. "She pushed the ball for us in transition which led to easy baskets which we needed. She was also everywhere on defense. She stepped up big for us.''
She is one of the better defensive point guards in the league and that means that she is not only facilitating offense for her teammates, but also disrupting the offense for opponents. She does a little bit of everything, but seems to disappear for long stretches of time. And unfortunately, her high turnover percentage limit her effectiveness as a distributor.
6. Tully Bevilaqua, Indiana Fever – Distributor: Bevilaqua was not even supposed to be the starter for the Fever this season but has ended up having one of the best seasons of any point guard in the league. She is still one of the best defenders at the position, if for no other reason due to the effort she puts into just bothering opposing ball handlers, and she is extremely decisive with the ball and almost always seems to make the right decision at the right time.
In addition to having one of the lowest turnover percentages of any point guard, she also has among the highest scoring efficiency ratio. Which means that even though she does not take a whole lot of shots, when she does she is selecting opportunities that result in points for her team as well as any other point guard.
5. Temeka Johnson, Phoenix Mercury – Distributor: Although Johnson has among the best assist ratios and pure point ratings of any point guard, she is actually not the best of this group. What sets her apart is her game impact – she has among the highest plus/minus ratings of any point guard in addition to the highest Boxscore rating of this group. And that pretty much reflects what you might expect based on observation – Johnson makes excellent decisions and has been an essential part of the Mercury’s success this season.
She dropped a little from the last rankings I made because her numbers have leveled out as the season has worn on, but she is still by far the best point guard of her type in terms of getting the ball in the hands of her teammates within the flow of the offense.
4. Sue Bird, Seattle Storm -- Facilitator: So if saying that Sun point guard Lindsay Whalen is better than Bird doesn’t get me run out of Seattle, putting her fourth among all WNBA point guards might.
Again, the issue is Bird’s talent, but her performance this season. She disappears for long stretches of time and as I described previously, she shoots a large number of jumpers at a very low percentage. As a result, her impact on the game can be limited, despite single-handedly winning games at times. Although Storm fans would probably not agree, all three of the point guards listed ahead of Bird on this list are having demonstrably better seasons than Bird.
3. Lindsey Harding, Washington Mystics – Combo guard: So here’s the justification of Harding over Bird: Harding has been both an efficient scorer and distributor as well as being arguably the better defender. And the thing that really sets Harding apart from Bird this season is that Harding goes aggressively to the basket – she has among the highest 2 point percentages of any point guard and a much higher free throw rate than Bird. In other words, Harding does a very good job of creating easy scoring opportunities for herself both from the field and from the free throw line, hence allowing her to do more for her team.
So the argument for Harding this season is simply that she brings more to the court overall as a point guard…and perhaps is able to do so more consistently.
2. Lindsay Whalen, Connecticut Sun – Combo guard: I made my argument in favor of Whalen the other day and stand by it. But what separates her from Harding? On the offensive side of the ball, there really is not much that Harding does that Whalen does not do better, with the exception of a small advantage for Harding in terms of 2 point percentage. The argument in favor of Harding is that she has one of the best plus/minus ratings in the WNBA and she is probably the better on ball defender. But its hard to find much beyond that.
Based on observation, it’s harder to think of a point guard who sees angles and is able to creatively use those angles better than Whalen right now (a few years ago, the answer would have been Penicheiro). And she uses that ability to draw fouls and get herself to the free throw line if she doesn’t finish with an array of creative shots. And while she is not a great defender, she has the instincts to play the passing lanes and play pretty good help defense.
It’s hard not to argue that Whalen is the best “traditional” point guard in the game right now.
1. Becky Hammon, San Antonio Silver Stars – Scoring point guard: So last week I wondered aloud if Hammon was the best point guard in the league this season and after watching all the other top point guards, I came to the conclusion that she definitely is.
Here’s why – she’s a weapon on the court from the point guard position that is almost impossible to stop right now. She is by far the best overall player playing the position by a long shot – she is the only point guard who is among the league’s best in terms of the ability to make plays (usage %) for her team efficiently (Chaiken scoring efficiency) while making a large individual contribution to the team’s wins (Boxscores).
It goes right back to the quote from Bird – no point guard in the league is better at understanding what’s needed and win and getting it done.
If she’s not scoring, she’s setting up others. If her team needs her to score, she can do that from anywhere on the court at a high percentage. And moreso than any other player in the league right now, Hammon is able to create plays for herself and others seemingly out of nothing.
People can try to dismiss her as “just a scorer” but ultimately, her abilities as a distributor are comparable to most of the players on this list and her decision making with the ball in her hands is arguably the best in the league.
Transition Points:
Rather than dissect it, I thought I would redirect to a more nuanced and less myopic approach to the same subject by Shoals at the Baseline. Shoals clearly has a bone to pick with Berri, but he makes a solid argument. To summarize his argument: statistics are fine as long as they are placed in context and based upon common sense assumption. Out of context and devoid of common sense, statistics are completely pointless. Taking an anti-statistics position is silly unless you want to also claim that your observations are honed to perfection...and if that's so, more power to you. All the numbers do is allow us to see trends and make comparisons that are very difficult to make otherwise...and if you care about make substantive arguments with some nuance, yes stats help.
I am not as anti-Berri as Shoals is because honestly, I think the premise of many of Berri's arguments is solid -- our observations are often based on completely arbitrary assumptions about the game that really don't reflect the things that every coach knows lead to victory. But ultimately, both the "Basketball is not math" and the "Basketball is econometrics" arguments are misguided and incomplete.
For the record, she classified as a "distributor", which means she does more than just bring the ball upcourt -- she finds ways to get it to players in scoring position. Never an all-star, but she has a career in his league likely as a strong back-up.
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Point Guard Rankings (New & Improved!): Harding, Quinn Recovering Nicely from Minnesota Sophomore Slumps
Why We Cannot Count the Monarchs Out…Yet
Prior to last night’s game against the Minnesota Lynx, Monarchs announcer Krista Blunk tried to put a positive spin on the Monarchs’ struggles to start the season.
I definitely think they’re better than a 1-3 team and I think it is early. If this is the way the season is going to go, there are going to be games that teams could have won and should have won and there are going to be games that just slip away. And that’s exactly what’s happened.
After the Monarchs let yet another game slip away losing to the Lynx in a closely played 86-83 game, Blunk reiterated her point and Chelsea Newton had more hopeful talk.
We will have everyone back and be healthier. We have a whole week to work on our defense and that is our focus.
Normally when I hear this kind of talk I dismiss it as irrelevant spin.
Clearly, the Monarchs are not in a pleasant situation right now sitting at 1-4 at the bottom of a very competitive Western Conference.
However, the optimism about the Monarchs is not entirely unjustified.
As of today, the Monarchs have played the toughest schedule of any team according to petrel’s RPI rankings on Rebkell, playing 3 of the top five teams in their first 5 games in the WNBA’s power rankings.
Given the injuries keeping players out and the number of players playing with injuries, it would be something of a miracle if the Monarchs were above .500 right now. Even with a healthy roster, they would have to be playing close to championship basketball to come out of that schedule with a winning record.
So beyond what has to be a disappointing start, what can we take away from the Monarchs’ first few games?
I’ve had the opportunity to watch them a few times this season – the road loss against the Storm, the overtime loss against the Mercury, and last night against the Lynx – and this does not strike me as a hopeless team. The problem right now is that with so many pieces banged up, it’s been difficult to establish a rhythm.
So the question is, how good might the Monarchs look once they hit their stride?
There’s no “I” in “team”…but there is in “win”…
The key to Monarchs basketball is their imposing frontline and that they play extremely well as a unit.
So as coach Jenny Boucek has said, even when they blew out the Mercury, the key to this team’s success is execution.
However, the biggest struggle the Monarchs have was touched upon by play by play announcer, Jason Ross. With the Lynx’s LaToya Pringle on the line late in the 4th quarter and the Monarchs up by 1, Ross said the following:
Every time it looks like the Monarchs may be establishing something here comes Minnesota to tie it…and Sacramento has had the lead for a lot of this 4th quarter but just can't seem to get any separation.Ross’ description of the flow of the game itself is a perfect metaphor for describing the Monarchs’ on-court problems, especially without Ticha Penicheiro.
The Monarchs have a number of talented bigs who can score inside and dominate the offensive boards. However, that requires one of two things – either the perimeter players have to get good shots up within the flow of the offense or they have to get the ball to their bigs in scoring position.
Far too often, neither happened last night when the Monarchs needed it most down the stretch.
Meanwhile, Seimone Augustus was just reminding us why she got WNBA Player of the Week honors last week, almost scoring at will; she was in one of those zones where the defense couldn’t stop her, she just happened to miss occasionally.
As much as I personally love and value team basketball, a team cannot win without someone who can make plays when the team needs it.
The Monarchs’ guards were unable to penetrate and create openings to make plays for most of the game meaning they were making extremely difficult entry passes into the post.
That problem was only compounded by the fact that starting perimeter players Kara Lawson and Sholanda Robinson shot a combined 3-16 from the field and 1-6 from the 3 point line. Lawson did not get to the free throw line once and Robinson went 1-2 from the charity stripe.
In other words, all the Lynx defense had to do was pack it in and cut off the passing lanes. At the end of a close game, it becomes extremely difficult for a team to score when nobody is able to make a play beyond 5 feet from the basket.
At no time was that illustrated better than when the best shot that they could get down one point at home with 8.9 seconds left was a three pointer from Kara Lawson…who was 1-6 to that point.
A team simply can’t win when the defense is able to force them into relying upon a weakness.
Waiting for Ticha’s return…
One player mentioned in post-game interviews that the team is awaiting Ticha Penicheiro’s return and really that would address that problem of making plays.
Lawson is an efficient point guard in that she does not turn the ball over and can run the offense. But she isn’t the type of player who can really force the defense out of their comfort zone to make plays for others at the end of a game.
That’s what the Penicheiro of old could do. And she’s still got enough of that to really help this team.
Blunk suggested on a few occasions that she thinks the Monarchs should run more, but I would argue they don’t have the playmakers out there right now to make plays in space. However, something I was impressed with was the ability of the Monarchs’ bigs to make plays for each other.
Crystal Kelly and DeMya Walker did an excellent job of passing the ball in the post which helped to create plays that catered to their strength – post play. One idea would be to run some sort of high low offense where their post players play a hi-lo double post or some other scheme that would allow them to make decisions with the ball and free the perimeter players to get open in scoring position.
While Kelly still looks nervous with the ball and Walker sometimes looks hesitant to passing situations, the post game is absolutely their strength.
Defense still a work in progress, but offense needs help sooner
The Monarchs’ pointed to the defense as a reason for the loss to the Lynx and it was a problem. Anybody is able to penetrate the Monarchs defense: Augustus, Renee Montgomery, Candice Wiggins, Charde Houston, Nicky Anosike…even Kelly Miller made a cameo in the paint early on in the game.
Their perimeter defense was not just the failing of guards – it was like anyone caught in space with a Lynx player was destined to get beat. That has to be fixed…and likely will be.
But even if they play good defense, they have to be able to score on offense more effectively. Right now, they are almost too reliant on team basketball.
Transition Points:
Crystal Kelly never ceases to amaze me. Krista Blunk suggested she is better coming off the bench and I agree – Kelly is the epitome of a flow player. She sees the game extremely well and just identifies gaps in the defense and quietly puts herself in position to score. When she gets the ball, she’s decisive. As a result, she gets herself to the line extremely well and is able to contribute without appearing to be dominant. It’s really amazing to watch from such a young player.
Renee Montgomery looked solid against the Monarchs though she started off a little rough trying to establish herself by taking shots a little early in the offense at the end of the 1st quarter. In the second half, I thought she calmed down a bit and played within the offense much more effectively. The last three minutes of the 3rd quarter might have been her best performance of her short professional career – in the stat sheet, she recorded an assist, a three pointer, and a floating lay-up. Really, she should have recorded two more assists that were lost when her teammates missed makeable layups. In addition, she played extremely aggressive defense during that stint. Kelly Miller is the better fit as the starter for this team right now, but Montgomery stands to be an impressive point guard down the line.
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“At Last”: Opening Day Preview
Finally.
By some strange coincidence, every single WNBA pre-season game was during a meeting, class, or the NBA playoffs (and I think I overslept a morning one or two). So aside from the Storm game that I went to, I have to confess that I have not seen enough of the WNBA pre-season to give a full preview.
But hey, that didn’t exactly stop a few major national publications from writing something…so why shouldn’t I?
So instead of the typical season preview that either does the impossible and predicts the outcomes or gives a roster analysis, I thought I would present a few themes that I intend to follow throughout the season.
A first will probably come as no surprise if you followed this blog last season: the role of the point guard.
I was talking to some folks the other day about how some people were claiming that last year in the NBA was the “Year of the Point Guard”, that point guards like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Rajon Rondo were emerging to dominate the league.
Then of course, when you look at this year’s NBA playoffs, of the four teams that made the semifinals, only one (Denver) had an established point guard (Mo Williams is solid but not quite “established” yet). So the point guard match-ups in the Finals are as follows: Derek Fisher, Tony Farmar, and Shannon Brown vs. Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson (still recovering from injury), and Anthony Johnson?
Does it look to you that point guards are the key to these teams? On the surface, not really…but that’s where I took the argument a bit further.
My whole point about the point guard is that it’s a position about decision making and goodness of fit. Successful teams don’t absolutely need a superstar point guard capable of completely dominating a game (e.g. Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups). They need a style of point guard that both defines and fits what they want to do.
The decision making framework becomes a particularly relevant point once you reach the second tier of point guards – does your point guard know when to push the ball and when to slow it down? Do they know when to drive or when to shoot? Do they know when to take the ball and swing it or reset the offense? Can they make an eff-ing entry pass?
All of these things sound super simple, right? Yeah, but some people simply don’t have it even though they have all the physical tools in the world.
What we have seen from the point guards playing in the Finals is solid decision making frm…even if that means pass to Kobe and clear. Derek Fisher’s style of play – as much as I despise him for his performance with and against the Warriors – is a great fit for the Lakers because he generally makes good decisions (as in limiting turnovers). Farmar is nice as a change of pace to pick up the tempo with the second unit, which has been extremely effective at times. Rafer Alston is perfect for the Magic because he can penetrate and find open shooters.
It seems likely that we will see a similar pattern in the WNBA this year – the best point guards in the league (Sue Bird & Lindsay Whalen) might be at home watching the conference finals. But I would argue that the point guard play of this year’s pre-season front-runner (the Sparks) will be huge.
And there will be a few teams whose playoff hopes might be riding on the play of a rookie point guard by the end of the season – there were three point guards taken in the first six picks of the draft and by the end of the season, all three could be starters.
So with that, my top five players and teams to watch as the season begins.
Top 5 Players to Watch
5. Lifelock’s Diana Taurasi: Always interesting to watch and will have quite a burden trying to get her team to the playoffs. Having Lauren Jackson would have been nice, but she showed last year that she can take a team to the brink of the playoffs almost by herself. When you look around at the Western Conference, it will be tough to make the playoffs…and if the Mercury want it, Taurasi will have to have an amazing season. I think she can do it.
4. Kristi Toliver, Renee Montgomery, and Briann January: All three of these point guards could be starting by mid-season depending on how the veterans around them play and how they fit into their respective systems. And I think following the progression of rookie point guards is fascinating. January has already been announced the starter of her team, Toliver has a good chance to challenge Chicago’s shooting guards filling the point guard spot, and Montgomery will have to work. But this will be interesting to watch – by the end of the season, who will be the best point guard in the 2009 draft?
3. Sylvia Fowles: the main storyline this season will probably be Lisa Leslie retiring and passing the torch to Candace Parker. But I see it slightly differently – the torch in terms of WNBA post play is being passed to Fowles. And she’s more than ready. The big question will be how the Sky use her. Last year, it just seemed like she was not incorporated into the offense very well. This year having demonstrated what she can do both in Europe and the Olympics, it seems unfathomable that she would not be the focal point of this team. No pressure, Coach Key.
2. Lindsay Whalen: This might seem like an odd pick, but she just seems like the eternal underdog. The GMs selected Sue Bird as the best point guard in the league in something of a landslide, which makes me wonder, what does Lindsay Whalen have to do to establish herself as the best? Well, winning a championship would be nice, but it seems unlikely this year. Some of their young players will have a year more under their belts though which could give Whalen more support so they don’t go through another 8 game slump like last year. But ultimately the Sun’s chances will boil down to Whalen. And if they do well, might she be anointed the top point guard in the league next year?
1. Candace Parker: Duh. That was easy. Coming back off her MVP season and off-season pregnancy, can she get her first championship?
Top 5 Teams to Watch
5. Diana Taurasi’s Lifelock (aka Phoenix Mercury): I love Diana Taurasi…and really, how can you not? She all about helping the children stay healthy and everything. But seriously – and no disrespect to Cappie Pondexter – the Mercury will live or die based on Taurasi’s performance this season. And if this Mercury team somehow gets to the playoffs – as 50% of WNBA GMs predicted – she is hands down the 2009 WNBA MVP. How 50% of GMs predicted the Mercury making the playoffs and only one predicted Taurasi winning the MVP is actually baffling to me.
4. New York Liberty: OK, ok… yes, I just really like Leilani Mitchel as a point guard. But that’s not really the point. The question for the Liberty is whether they can take that next step and return to the WNBA finals…which ultimately comes down to a question of whether they can take down Detroit.
3. Sacramento Monarchs: This is my dark horse team of the 2009 season. I’ve seen some people write this team off but as usual, this frontcourt is absolutely loaded. And when this team is clicking on all cylinders, they will be extremely difficult to stop. They have added Courtney Paris – who I think will be a force on the boards – and have a constantly improving Crystal Kelly to make up a potentially dominant frontcourt of the future. They have also added Hamchetou Maiga-Ba who should be able to just adds another veteran presence. This is a team with the capacity to challenge the top teams in the Western Conference while simultaneously having a bright future. And that’s always fascinating to watch. And I will never ever…evaevaevaevaeva count out Ticha Penicheiro…ok?
2. Chicago Sky: I just love the Sky. I love the combination of talent they have: two great post players, an outstanding all-around perimeter player in Jia Perkins, and Armintie Price who is just one of the league’s great personalities. Not that personalities win games…but it makes it even more fun to root for (or in the case of Kobe Bryant, against). I have gone on and on about them in the past, so I spare you here. But I’m really really interested in seeing how Kristi Toliver fits into this team. She could easily take the starting spot by mid-season.
1. LA Sparks: the Sparks have put together one of those fantasy teams that almost try to shape destiny by bringing together a group of players that just seems unstoppable…you know, if they all play the way they’re supposed to and actually come together to work as a team. It’s almost as with these squads are supposed to overwhelm you with star power before you even step on the court.
And as we saw last year with the Storm, this doesn’t always work…
In the NBA, the 2000 Portland Trailblazers and the 2004 LA Lakers immediately come to mind. Really, they had two different problems – the Blazers were just loaded top to bottom whereas the Lakers had four Hall of Famers and little depth. What’s interesting is that in this year’s WNBA just as in the NBA in 2004, it could be a gritty Detroit team that was assembled for a particular style of play that topples the fantasy team.
But in addition to trying to bring this talent and mold them into a team, there will be the additional adjustment once Candace Parker comes back to the team. So they will have to do a double adjustment this season…and that doesn’t sound easy in the WNBA’s short regular season. The key will be to see where they’re at near the end of the season. And you have to wonder how that will influence home court advantage in the Western Conference.
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Pre-Season Opening Night in Seattle: Courtney Paris, Ashley Walker, Crystal Kelly...and a Great Atmosphere
Paying to see a WNBA pre-season game seems like a completely irrational choice compared to the alternative of sitting at home (or a bar) to watch Game 2 of the NBA’s Western Conference Finals.
Yet, I suppose the fact that I went to the Seattle Storm’s pre-season opener against the Sacramento Monarchs demonstrates how eager I am for the WNBA season to get started.
I have been to WNBA games in Key Arena before and the energy has always been high. So I was really curious to see what it would be like in this pre-season opener after a long, dark, rainy Seattle off-season (it had been gray and rainy earlier this week…and it’s May). But even though the crowd was relatively small at just under 5,000 people -- many of them kids – they more than made up for it with their energy. At times I couldn’t believe it was just a pre-season game. It was a great place to be overall…but more on that later.
Given the atmosphere, any hope of maintaining an analytical lens for this meaningless game was quickly tossed out the window.
I hadn’t really caught up on any media day information anyway so I went to the game not really knowing the state of either team. I figured I would just go and see what caught my attention. After all, it’s a pre-season game – teams are shaking off the rust, coaches are still evaluating players, and players are still learning how to play with each other in the team concept. Despite those factors, there are a few notes worth pointing out.
The first thing that struck me was the play of Ticha Penicheiro, but that’s to be expected from one of the all-time greats. Even though she is nearing the end of her career, her presence is felt every time she’s on the court. She appears to have total command of the game at every moment she’s on the court. She is one of the most decisive basketball players I’ve ever watched – male or female. And it’s an especially noticeable difference when her play is compared to that of the other point guards in the game who are unmistakably no more than back-up players, if not destined to be cut. I could go on...
But what really stood out for me was the play of the young post players in the game – Ashley Walker, Courtney Paris, Crystal Kelly. Kelly was someone who caught my attention during her rookie campaign last season as an extremely efficient post player. Paris is obviously a much more highly touted rookie who I actually saw play in person a few years back when Oklahoma played the University of San Francisco. I had never seen Ashley Walker play but heard good things about her career at the University of California – Berkeley.
But why is this so significant to me?
When I first tried to watch the WNBA back in the 1990’s one of the biggest critiques my dorm-mates and I had about the league was the lack of quality post play – compared to the NBA, it was rare to see players bang and fight for rebounds or establish position and pull off a drop step in the post to score on their opponent.
Watching now over a decade later, the improved post play is one of the most striking elements of the game. It’s possible that I’m just off base on this point, but it just seems like the post game is definitely evolving and part of that is likely the increasing visibility of the professional game over the last decade.
I find that analyzing post players is always easier to witness live than through the narrow lens of the television or computer screen, so it was great to get a chance to see these players up close.
Of course, this was only a pre-season game so it’s hard to make any broad claims about these young players. So I’m really going to rely on my subjective observations rather than the less subjective statistics. And overall, I think both teams have reason to be hopeful about their post players.
Crystal Kelly: Building on a solid rookie campaign
What impressed me most about Crystal Kelly last year was her instincts. Despite limited minutes and a shifting role on the team, she could just jump into the game and figure out how to rebound, get to the free throw line or score easy baskets. It’s not really something you see very often from rookies. With a year of experience under her belt and a full pre-season to work with her teammates, I would definitely expect her to become an even more efficient player throughout this season.
Really, last night was more of the same from Kelly. She sees the game extremely well. She does an excellent job of finding spaces in the defense and getting there as quickly as possible. When she gets the ball, there are few young players as decisive as she is in either attempting to score or passing the ball and finding herself another opportunity. She does not waste motion at all in moving around the court – in a way she embodies the old mantra be quick, not in a hurry.
However, as usual Kelly does these little things so quietly from play to play that it’s easy for her to go unnoticed, especially in a pre-season game when the point guard play and overall team ball movement are still suspect. It will be interesting to see how she does this season as she gets a better grasp of the team’s offense and her teammates get used to her.
Courtney Paris: Shall we believe the hype? 
Sure, you may look at Paris’ line of two points, five rebounds, and one block and think, uh-oh, she’s not ready.
I would instead urge patience.
Let's put this in perspective: it was only her first game so I think the strengths that she demonstrated are actually more impressive than her weakness are disheartening.
Paris will clearly be a good rebounder for the Monarchs from the start. She’s got a big body, she’s not afraid to bang, and she is probably tough enough to fight with almost anyone in the league for rebounds.
That toughness she displays when fighting for rebounds is exactly what will help her offensively as well.
There was one play in particular in the first half where she literally came down the middle of the court, threw her forearms into the chest of her defender in stride, made a quick pivot, and established pretty good position on the block. She’s not afraid of contact and that’s a great sign for a young player. The problem comes after she touches the ball.
First of all, while she is tough and big, it seems that she’s not used to the strength of professional players. She’s going to have to adjust to the fact that she will feel more resistance from WNBA players than she did at Oklahoma. There were times in the second half where Kasha Terry – about 55 pounds lighter than Paris – was able to hold her position pretty well against Paris.
Second, once she got the ball in the post, she was rushing her moves. When her initial move was stopped, she wasn’t really able to recover and transition into a second move. Part of the trouble was that the Storm were doubling occasionally after Paris put the ball on the floor the first time. Since she went into her move so quickly, she wasn’t able to anticipate that double, got stuck, and had to make a frantic pass out of the post or take a poor shot. With a little more patience in the post, I imagine her footwork and hard-nosed play will allow her to become a much more effective post scorer.
Lastly, I think it’s important to note that these two things – strength and patience – are things that young post players always have to work out when they make the leap to the next level. After she adjusts to the opponents, adjusts to the offense, and figures out her role on the team I think she’ll be fine.
I think it will be interesting to see how Kelly and Paris fit into the Monarchs rotation. Both seem to have immense potential on an aging team. If they can continue to develop, they should have a very nice frontcourt duo for the future.
Ashley Walker: "A nose for the ball"
I had never seen Walker play before last night…but wow -- it's hard to miss her once she steps on the court.
She’s all over the court, wherever the ball is. Really, I could not even tell what position she was playing at times as she would be in the post fighting for rebounds on one play and then out guarding Hamchétou Maïga-Ba on the next play. Regardless, she just seemed to be making plays.
From Brian Agler’s post-game comments posted in audio format on the Storm’s website (at the 1:50 mark):Yeah you see those types of players, those very good rebounders. Those are natural things you don’t teach a lot of that…that’s just a natural nose for the ball. You’ve heard that term a lot. You know those people just for whatever reason have it. They anticipate well, they sort of see what’s going to happen before it happens and just have the ability to make plays.
Really, she has very similar instincts to what I would ascribe to Crystal Kelly. The big difference is Walker really fights for boards in the post. She got three offensive rebounds simply as a result of out working her opponent and being in the right place at the right time.
She is probably a more versatile scorer than Paris or Kelly in that she seems to be able to do more with the ball in her hands, but like Paris, it seemed like she is still adjusting to the changing competition. I don’t recall her pulling off a strong post move, but she more than makes up for that by being able to hit short jumpers and create second chance opportunities.
Walker has a chance to be a real force in the WNBA. She’s tough, strong, and clearly has great instincts. She had some defensive lapses, but that was because she was guarding players clearly faster than her out on the perimeter, which is clearly not her strength at this time in her career. It will be interesting to see how she’s integrated into the offense long-term with the return of Lauren Jackson and the solid play of Ashley Robinson and Camille Little.
I think Walker is on her way to distinguishing herself on a solid Storm team.
An amazing atmosphere
Despite solid play from these three post players, the most striking thing about this game was the atmosphere, which I alluded to at the beginning of this post.
I was talking to a jazz musician the other day about the power of hearing live music – how it adds another layer to the music when you can watch the coordination of the artists, their emotions expressed through body language, and the energy that is put into making each note. It’s a value added to the listening experience that cannot be reconstructed with a studio recording.
Attending a live professional basketball game is similar to me (though not directly analogous) and part of that is because of the crowd – that energy cannot be recreated sitting at home.
For example, during one sequence in the third quarter, Ashley Robinson grabbed an offensive rebound and quickly put the ball back in with a short running bank shot. Then on the ensuing defensive possession, Robinson blocked a shot and the crowd just went nuts – you would have thought it was a mid-season game of some consequence.
To be sure, I imagine this is not too dissimilar to the pre-season in any sport – you have to be a special kind of rabid to shell out hard earned dollars to watch teams work out their bench players’ kinks. However, what’s unique about the WNBA environment is that it feels more like a community in the building.
When Robinson made those plays, people weren’t just yelling drunken cheers or turning to their neighbor and saying, “Wow, that Robinson sure can play.” The whole game they were not only calling players by their first name, but they were just shouting out words of encouragement as though they knew these people. I suppose it’s hard to describe in comparison to a NBA game or a college basketball game, but it definitely has its own unique feel; a friendlier, more positive atmosphere.
But what really got me was a moment near the end of the game.
I was writing down some final thoughts with about a minute to go when everyone started standing up. The game was pretty much over, not to mention the fact that it was meaningless to begin with. I had already checked out mentally and sort of got lost in my own thoughts about the game.
Then a boy in front of me – no older than six – with the most adorable big brown eyes and wavy brown hair stands up and looks over to his mom who had been quite motionless and disengaged for most of the game. He looks back at me as I’m jotting down a few more notes and I catch his gaze but quickly look back down and keep writing.
For some reason I looked back at the kid a few moments later and see him grinning. I sort of grin back and he starts smiling at me expectantly while widening his eyes, sort of begging me to stand up. I laugh, put my pad down and stand up with just about every other able-bodied person in the building.
At that point, he taps his mom on the shoulder and motions back to me as if to say, hey, if that dork taking notes all game is standing, so should you! She sighs and stands and he looks back at me with the most contented smile.
Now perhaps I’m just a sucker for a story like that because I used to be an elementary school teacher and I just think the innocence of childhood is among the best things humanity has to offer. But it was just amazing to me that this kid almost didn’t even care about the time and score, which is what we’re all coached to focus on during a close game. This kid was just completely lost in the moment and expected everyone else to join in with him. When the buzzer sounded the crowd gave the team a standing ovation and the kid looked back at me on his way out, still with that big smile.
Those moments don’t seem to come along very often and when they do, I absolutely treasure them. And there is something about the WNBA atmosphere that just cultivates this amazing spirit when you’re in the arena. I have no idea what it is – normally at sports games I’ve identified about three dudes I would fight (if I was a little bit taller…and bigger) by the fourth quarter. Something else was going on there in that pre-season WNBA game in the last minute. Something special.
(Edited for grammar and flow: 5/25/09)
Related Links:
Game recap from Jayda Evans:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/storm/2009249482_storm22.html
Post-game interview with Ashley Walker
http://www.wnba.com/storm/media/storm/walker_090521.WMA
Storm Defeat Monarchs In Exhibition
http://www.spmsportspage.com/published/pro/WNBA/Storm-Defeat-Monarchs.shtml
Storm.com photo gallery
http://www.wnba.com/storm/multimedia/monarchs_090521.html
Transition Points:
It’s a shame players are going to have to get cut. When Kimberly Beck went down in the third quarter, my first thought was my lord, I hope she doesn’t get cut due to injury. When she did re-enter the game, it was great to hear the crowd applaud her.
There’s often an assumption that male WNBA fans attend games either with female partners or daughters, but it was great to see the large number of fathers with sons out at the game tonight as well. These players aren’t just role models for girls -- honestly if I wanted a son to learn the game of basketball, I’d be more likely to take him to a WNBA game than NBA game. That’s a personal choice and really a false dichotomy anyway since they’re played at different times…but you get the point…
My logic for skipping the NBA playoffs last night was that I’d have at least two more chances to watch two teams I despise compete for a trip to the NBA Finals. I honestly don’t care who wins and every clutch shot Derek Fisher makes just makes me cringe (I’m an authentic Bay Area Laker Hater ever since they traded Eddie Jones back in 1999). Now that the Lakers lost, I have three more chances to catch that series. Double sweet.
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All-Rookie Teams: Where Does Sylvia Fowles Fit?
Although the MVP race has generated a lot of debate, the Rookie of the Year race was pretty much decided after Candace Parker’s first game of the season.
In fact, I’d say that at least the top 3 rookies – Parker, Candice Wiggins, and Sylvia Fowles (despite injury) – have been obvious to most people for some time. In the world of my opinion, there’s a second tier of equally obvious candidates: Nicky Anosike, Tasha Humphrey, Crystal Kelly and Leilani Mitchell.
In other words, although the top of the order is pretty well decided, there’s very little room at the bottom which should make for some tough decisions for voting members.
But the real drama in rookie award giving this year is whether Sylvia Fowles has done enough to earn a spot on the All-Rookie team and if so, whether she deserves recognition as a member of the first team.
On talent alone, it’s clear that Fowles should make it. But given that she will have unfortunately missed half of the season, it would be perfectly reasonable to leave her off the team.
So what would I do? The statistics haven’t changed much since my last rookie rankings during the Olympic break, so here’s my opinion on who should make the rookie team…using the statistics to support my arguments.
Second Team
Alexis Hornbuckle:
Hornbuckle has been one of my favorite rookies this season ever since I saw her grab 14 rebounds against the Mercury early on. She’s not the flashiest player, but she’s gritty, plays excellent defense, and has the tools to be an excellent offensive player.
Statistically, her greatest asset – defensive anticipation – has led her to second place in the WNBA in steals per game, which is an impressive feat for a rookie. Offensively, she has a lot of skills, but isn’t exceptional in any one area. But one thing worth pointing out is that she’s fifth among rookies in assist ratio, which underscores an important point about Hornbuckle – she’s a great team player and will be an excellent piece for the Shook as they try to take back the WNBA title.
Amber Holt:
The question I have to ask about Holt is whether she’d be a candidate for the All-Rookie team if she was playing for another team. But this pick is as much about potential as it is production for this year.
Statistically, the thing that stands out about Holt is that she has not had a great shooting season. Her true shooting percentage of 49% ranks her 13th among rookies and her VCR ranks 14th among rookies, although it is above league average. But what I find interesting about Holt is that she has all the instincts to be a great offensive player eventually.
She usually gets to where she wants on the court and is able to create shots for herself even though she has yet to become a consistent scorer. But most impressive about her statistically, especially in comparison to Hornbuckle, is that she generally makes good decisions with the ball – she is among the rookie leaders in assist ratio and turnover rate.
In other words, aside from her streaky shooting, she doesn’t waste a lot of possessions. And as an aside, that makes her one of the few shooting guards in the league who has a positive pure point rating, which is a testament to her future versatility. It will be interesting to see how she performs for the Sun in the playoffs.
LaToya Pringle:
Pringle is another personal favorite of mine. She’s super athletic, plays hard, and could develop into a defensive presence over time.
Statistically, she’s one of the best help defenders in the WNBA statistically and has shown the ability to score as well. She leads all rookies in offensive rebounding rate and is sixth in true shooting percentage. She’s a player that has the ability to extend possessions on offense and disrupt opponents defensively.
Crystal Kelly:
WNBA.com finally gave her the recognition she deserves in their most recent rookie rankings, placing her fifth on their list. I’ve thought she deserved it all season so it’s good to see her finally getting national recognition.
But the thing that makes her most impressive is probably the thing most overlooked about her game. She’s leads the WNBA in free throw per 40 minutes and free throw rate. That doesn’t seem that significant until you consider how she gets those shots. She does an extremely good job of making decisive moves to the basket and drawing contact to get herself to the free throw line. Once she refines her post moves and gets more experience in the league, she’ll be a huge offensive threat.
Statistically, she’s been one of the most efficient rookies all season. She has led rookies in true shooting percentage all season and she’s been among the top five in VCR. So why not on the first team? As efficient as she is, other rookies have been more productive. And that’s not a knock on her but a testament to the talent of this rookie class.
Sylvia Fowles:
So given the way the other rookies in the league have played, I decided to put Fowles on the second team. And it’s not just because she hasn’t played half the season. It’s also the fact that she hasn’t been quite as productive as some of the other rookies in terms of her rate of production when she’s been in the game.
Obviously, that’s no reason for concern in terms of her future – we just really didn’t see her come into her own until the Olympics. Part of the problem was that she hasn’t ever really looked comfortable in the Sky’s offensive scheme, which has hurt her ability to produce effectively.
Next year when she has more time to adjust to the Sky’s system she’ll be a lot more productive and hopefully more consistently involved in the offense. So although she’s definitely one of the most talented rookies, her output this season hasn’t quite been good enough to be considered ahead of the more productive rookies this year. It’s just hard to reward someone for half a season when others have played a full season, but I see second team as a reasonable compromise.
First Team
The top two should be obvious: Candace Parker and Candice Wiggins. The other three might be debatable.
Leilani Mitchell:
I might be a little biased here, but I think there’s a reasonable argument to be made for Mitchell to be on the All-Rookie team. The problem is that we don’t have good statistics to evaluate point guards so her numbers don’t stand out. But she’s definitely been the best point guard of any in the rookie class, one of the best backup point guards in the WNBA and already one of the best pure facilitators in the league.
Her run in July when she had 20 assists and only one turnover sealed the deal for me. She has great instincts to create scoring opportunities for others. The one question about Mitchell is whether she’ll be able to produce consistently with increased minutes or if she’s just the product of an extremely deep team with a methodical offensive system.
Regardless, it’s hard to deny Mitchell’s talent and she’s one of the better rookie stories this year after being almost cut by the Mercury.
Tasha Humphrey:
Humphrey hasn’t been nearly as efficient with the Mystics – she’s taking more shots and missing more – but her season as a whole has been pretty amazing. With the Shock she was 3rd in true shooting percentage, a 38% three point shooter, one of the most versatile rookies, and the second most productive overall. She was able to do it all.
I haven’t seen her play with the Mystics, but something has changed drastically. Maybe she’s being relied upon more as a second option instead of the fourth option she was on the Shock. Maybe the Mystics schemes are just less well-suited to her game. But since she played most of the season with the Shock, it’s hard to deny that she deserves consideration for the All-Rookie first team.
Nicky Anosike:
For this season, Anosike has been extremely productive for the Lynx. Not only has she been a consistent starter, but she’s also leading the league in steals right now…as a center. That’s impressive not just for a rookie, but especially for a center.
She’s somewhat raw right now in terms of having strong post moves, but she runs the floor well and has a nose for the ball. The Lynx have put a good team together and it will be interesting to see how she and Wiggins develop over the off-season.
Transition Points:
A quick note to critics of the statistical ranking of players:
The statistics help us evaluate and compare players, but shouldn’t necessarily determine our opinions of players. But given that we can’t possibly watch every single moment of every single player’s season (especially in the WNBA when so many games go untelevised), statistics can help us identify things that we otherwise wouldn’t notice because of unavoidable limitations. We’re all human and statistics can help us as we make judgments and try to develop informed opinions.
Relevant Links:
The Most Outstanding Rookies: How do we compare rookies…fairly?
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/08/most-outstanding-rookies-how-do-we.html
Basketball Statistics Glossary
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/09/basketball-statistics-glossary.html
Other posts about rookies
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/search/label/Rookies
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The Five Most Intriguing Players To Watch Down the Stretch
I don’t know about you, but watching the dominance of Team USA in the Olympics just wasn’t an adequate substitute for good competitive basketball games.
Thankfully, we only have one more day to wait for the WNBA to resume.
And what will make the completion of this season so exciting is that the league is experiencing a year of parity, which definitely benefits a growing league. Every single team except the Atlanta Dream has a shot at making the playoffs. It doesn’t get much better than that.
But as a relatively new fan of the WNBA game without a real home team to root for, I often watch games based upon players or match-ups that I find particularly intriguing. That has led to me prioritizing a few teams over others but almost constantly changing my favorite team as I grow to appreciate different players or styles of play.
So this post is about five players that I’m particularly excited about as the WNBA resumes play. They are not necessarily the best five players in the league, but instead players at the center of some of the more intriguing storylines around the league as we look forward to the playoffs.
5. Crystal Kelly
Kelly was one of the most productive rookies before the break and has also shown enormous breakout potential.
But there are two things that will make her one of the most interesting players to watch as we get close to the playoffs.
First, and perhaps most important, she’s had practice time during the Olympic hiatus and I think she will benefit from that practice more than any other player. It was obvious from watching her play in their first half that she was relying on her instincts rather than the team’s system. It stands to reason that with time to learn the system better and use her instincts within the team concept, she’ll be even more productive.
Second, she has a real opportunity to shine while Rebekkah Brunson recovers from injury. It’s a chance to prove the point that her Diamond Rating has shown all year – that with increased time, she’ll be even more productive.
Considering that the Monarchs are currently fourth place in a very tight Western Conference playoff race, Kelly’s performance in place of Brunson could be the x-factor that determines whether they make the playoffs or go home early.
4. Jia Perkins
Honestly, I just enjoyed watching Perkins play point guard in Dominique Canty’s absence.
But what I like most about her is that she’s a scoring point guard who is also extremely efficient and makes good decisions with the ball as shown by her ratio of points to non-scoring possessions that she was responsible for and her plus/minus rating.
Here’s what I’ve wrote about her in my last point guard ratings, in which she ranked 9th:Right now, Jia Perkins (ranked #9) is the better point guard – she is not an outstanding distributor based on her season-long numbers, but she makes better scoring decisions with the ball (than Canty) as evidenced by her rank in points per zero point possession. She also has the lowest turnover percentage (8.21%) among this set of point guards. It would be interesting see what Perkins’ numbers might be if she spent a whole season as a team’s point guard.
Her outstanding season before the break is probably what led WNBA.com to list her as their top candidate for Most Improved Player right now. And had their been an all-star game this season, she would have almost certainly made the team based on her numbers.
What makes Perkins a player to watch is that the Sky still have an outside shot at the playoffs and if that’s their goal, Perkins’ point guard play will be a critical part of their playoff run. What she brings to the team is someone who is able to manage the offense and make the best decision for the team at any given moment. She will have to continue that for the Sky to have a chance.
3. Camille Little
Like Kelly, Little is a player who could be expected to benefit greatly from the Olympic break.
She performed extremely well for the Storm in Lauren Jackson’s absence before the Olympic break. But she’s on her third team in two seasons and arrived in Seattle mid-season. So the additional practice time should help her use her instincts more effectively within the Storm’s system.
Kevin Pelton already gave a good synopsis of Camille Little’s game so I’ll just copy and excerpt:Little is very creative in traffic, showing off reverses and scoring with her off hand. The ability to convert down low is very important in this league, especially for an undersized post player like Little. Last year in San Antonio, Little shot 41.2 percent and she was at 42.0 percent in Atlanta, so we'll see if she can keep up her 50-plus percent shooting with the Storm. One thing that should help in that regard is that Little is playing virtually exclusively at power forward for the Storm, having played more on the wing in her last two stops.
What makes Little a player to keep tabs on as the WNBA resumes play is that with Lauren Jackson out for the remainder of the regular season, Little’s performance will be critical, especially considering how close the Western Conference playoff race is.
Although other players stepped up for the Storm as well and they have the weakest strength of schedule to finish the season, it’s also clear that they will need Little to continue her high level of play in order to maintain their position in the playoffs. Because she’s replacing the reigning MVP and Defensive Player of the Year, this is going to be one of the more interesting stories to follow over the next few weeks.
2. Sylvia Fowles
You probably know by now that I think Sylvia Fowles is on her way to becoming one of the most dominant post players in the WNBA.
She played extremely well in the Olympics, arguably being the second biggest contributor to Team USA’s success, based on the numbers. By all reports, her game improved by the day with the help of Lisa Leslie’s mentorship. But I’ve gushed about her enough.
The reason I believe Fowles will be one of the most intriguing players to watch after the break is that the Sky could really use a boost if they want to make a run at the playoffs. But the key lies in the Sky’s strategy – will they find a way to fully integrate Fowles into their offense and allow her to continue the progress she showed in the Olympics?
In the first part of the season before her injury, she looked almost like an after-thought in the Sky’s offense scoring mostly on broken plays or by just being in the right place at the right time. If the Sky actually start running the offense through her, she’s the type of player who would demand double teams and open up scoring opportunities for Candice Dupree and Jia Perkins.
So really what makes Fowles one of the more interesting storylines has little to do with her – I think we know what she brings. What makes this storyline interesting is whether the Sky will figure out a way to maximize her talent.
1. Diana Taurasi
Taurasi is arguably the best player in the league right now and has demonstrated the ability to singlehandedly take over a game…on both ends of the floor.
What makes her an interesting player to watch is that you figure that a competitor like her wants to be back in the playoffs to defend their WNBA title. It would take an MVP performance to pull it off. And Taurasi is the kind of player who could make it happen.
She was arguably the biggest contributor to Team USA’s success and a strong contender for the WNBA MVP despite her team being last place in the Western Conference.
What’s underrated is her role in Phoenix’s Rover defense. When she applies pressure to the other team’s lead ball handler above the three point line, the Mercury play extremely well. Their strategy is usually to play relaxed defense in the first half and then ramp up the pressure in the second half (maybe to save energy?) but they’ll have to turn it on for every minute of their last seven games if they want to make the playoffs.
Moreso than the other stars in this league, the Mercury’s success is almost entirely dependent on Diana Taurasi…on both ends of the floor. Despite the temptation of tanking for a high lottery pick, I can’t see a competitor like Taurasi just throwing in the towel. And that fire is what will make her the most intriguing player to watch over the next few weeks.
Transition Points:
Unfortunately, I don’t know much about Erin Phillips, but Connecticut is justifiably excited about her return to the lineup. I used the 2006 rookie class as a point of comparison for this year’s rookie rankings. Phillips ranked as the third most promising rookie from that class, behind Seimone Augustus and Cappie Pondexter. With the power of hindsight, that sounds ridiculous because Candice Dupree and Sophia Young are clearly all-star caliber players, but with increased minutes, Phillips is a prime candidate for the type of breakout performance that could give the Sun a boost heading into the playoffs.
An interesting side note, speaking of players to watch – the WNBA has made an interesting decision to allow fan voting for the MVP this year.T-Mobile will also be the presenting partner of WNBA MVP voting, which for the first time will enable fans to participate (at WNBA.com/mvpvote). Voting beings Aug. 28 and will continue through Sept. 15. The winner will be named during the WNBA playoffs. The online fan vote will comprise 25% of the total vote, while media votes will account for 75%.
When I first look at that, it seems like a terrible idea – the MVP voting is already extremely vulnerable people’s subjective definitions of “most valuable”, which makes it difficult to arrive at a consensus MVP. So it seems that leaving it in the hands of the media is best since one would think they have a professional responsibility to make an informed decision. My fear is that fan voting will reduce the MVP race to nothing more than a popularity contest – so right now, I would predict Candace Parker as the winner.
On the other hand, this is an excellent opportunity to encourage fan involvement and since the award is so subjective anyway, the league might as well allow fans to have some input. Just more material to analyze!
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Crystal Kelly & Camille Little: What makes for a potential diamond in the rough?
Crystal Kelly and Camille Little may not be the type of players that attract fans to the WNBA, but they are the type of key players that are essential for making a strong playoff showing after the Olympic break
If you don’t pay close attention, you might miss how players like Kelly and Little impact the game. They go about their business on the court quietly and without making the kind of plays that make you go “wow”. But when you look at the box score, you realize they have had an extremely effective and efficient game.
The Olympic break is an important time for players like Kelly and Little and not because they’ll be playing for someone in Beijing. Kelly is one of the more underrated players in a talented rookie class whose minutes have increased over the season because of her amazing efficiency. Little was traded to Seattle earlier this season and got inconsistent minutes prior to Jackson’s departure for the Olympics.
For these players, and other talented players who have shown great promise in limited minutes (e.g. Alison Bales, Sandrine Gruda, and Crystal Langhorne), this time is like the pre-season that most teams never got. It’s a chance to, you know, actually learn the plays and their team’s system. So while the spotlight will be on the players in Beijing on the world stage, the players who stand to benefit the most are these players who have shown considerable promise.
So I chose to watch Sacramento play Seattle yesterday because of Crystal Kelly (and Seattle has been web casted so little this season). Little was a “bonus” because she is already having a “breaking out” of sorts, but I had not watched her since she was inserted into the starting lineup. For me, Kelly and Little are just the types of players that are exciting to follow not only because it’s exciting when they actually do breakout, but also because it’s great to see hard working players get the job done off the bench.
What I think both players showed in the Storm’s 77-71 win is that they have an impact game by doing the simple things on the court really well. And I noticed something else that I think indicates a brighter future for Kelly – whereas Little production could be attributed to the strength of the Storm’s system, Kelly is productive as a rookie because she just seems to always be in the right place to make things happen. So I would bet that with experience Kelly ends up being the better player and I think that is demonstrated well with statistics and personal observation.
Finding “diamonds in the rough”
I first “noticed” Kelly when I did my original rookie rankings this season. She was the biggest surprise on the list, mainly because I hadn’t heard of her. I had even watched a few Monarchs games and she just didn’t stand out. And that is probably the classic example of a diamond in the rough.
Every year in every sport there are players just seem to improve dramatically from one season to the next and make you say, wow, where on earth did that player come from. Sometimes it’s attributed to hard work in the off-season or a rookie getting experience and learning the system. However often times, these players are quietly productive in limited minutes and we just don’t notice because they don’t do anything particularly spectacular.
Kevin Broom created a metric called diamond rating to identify these types of players in the NBA and Petrel at the Pleasant Dream Blog created an adjusted version called “Petrel Adjusted Diamond Rating”, which is adjusted for WNBA minutes (you can take a look at the formulas here). However, though I’ve looked at the statistic for rookies from the 2006 class as a means of comparison and see reasonable results, Little is not a player that ranks very well on this metric.
I think the Kelly – Little comparison is a nice example of the two different types of breakout players, and maybe even which is more desirable. Kelly is the type of player that ranks quite well based on whichever version of the diamond rating you use and Little is a player who appears to have found the right fit on her third team in two years.
The Numbers
The best way to identify a diamond in the rough intuitively would be to look for players that are extremely efficient in limited minutes. Kelly fits that bill moreso than Little.
When Kelly is in the game, she makes things happen. As I described in my mid-season rookie rankings a few weeks ago, Kelly is among the tops among rookies in plus/minus and true shooting percentage. Even more impressive, Kelly led the league in true shooting percentage as of July 21, according to Kevin Pelton at the Storm Tracker blog. The way she puts up those statistics is even more impressive.
First, her true shooting percentage is so high because she is a very good free throw shooter, at 84% for the year. She also ranks number one in free throw attempts per 40 minutes (which is significant and I’ll come back to it later). And most impressive about Kelly is that her production leads to winning – her boxscore 1.51, which means even as a rookie playing 15.2 minutes per game, she’s able to make a contribution to the team’s success. There aren’t many other non-starters who can claim the total package she brings to the game.
At this point scoring is her forte – she ranks 10th among rookies in rebounding with 3.3/game, which isn’t spectacular (guards Alexis Hornbuckle and Candice Wiggins rank ahead of her). Not every rookie post player is going to be a Fowles, Parker, or Anosike, so it’s understandable that Little is not yet a great defender.
There’s nothing particularly spectacular about Camille Little’s statistics except that she has managed to nearly double her productivity across almost every statistic with twice as many minutes as a starter. Considering we should expect efficiency/productivity to go down with increased minutes, the fact that all her numbers have increased is impressive.
But the statistics only tell half of the story for these players. It’s the way they put up these numbers that’s impressive.
Good basketball instincts lead to productivity
The key element of both of their games is good instincts. However, they each display those instincts in different ways.
Little’s increased productivity seems to illustrate a good fit with the Storm’s system. She knows how to play within that system and make an impact. She’s shown the ability to score all over the court, but is especially adept at scoring off of cuts to the basket. The most important thing is that she’s decisive with the ball – when she gets it, she looks to do something with it quickly and that allows her to be effective even when she’s not in the game very long.
In contrast, Kelly often seems to float around on offense as though she doesn’t quite know where she wants to go. But she flourishes when she improvises. She recognizes opportunities to contribute extremely well. Once she recognizes the opportunity, she knows how to take advantage whether that be off of a cut to the middle or establishing position in the post.
The big difference between Kelly and Little is that Kelly is a bit bigger and gets to the free throw line like a veteran. It’s not so much that she uses a whole lot of advanced moves down low, but she is just a physical player who looks to initiate contact once she gets the ball. The fact that she knows how to get herself to the free throw line without an intimate familiarity with the plays or the array of post moves that teammate Rebekkah Brunson has means that she’ll only be more effective once she has time to develop.
Another thing that might not stand out at first about Kelly is that she has quick hands. She had two steals recorded last night against the Storm and I noted an additional one. She got them just by being in the passing lanes or sticking her hand in the way of a ball handler’s dribble. That won’t make her dominant, but it is indicative of a defensive awareness that many normal rookies don’t have.
What both do well is play with energy, especially Kelly. She doesn’t seem to stop until the play is completely dead. And when you’re a bench player who gets limited minutes, that’s a huge asset to the team because it allows them to trust you during important stretches of a game. Kelly is a fighter down low who doesn’t back down and she has some good role models in Sacramento to help her develop.
Being in the right place at the right time
Neither Kelly nor Little are players that are going to dazzle you with their ability to create points off the dribble or put 5 seconds worth of moves on a defender. But what they specialize in is being in the right spot at the right time.
What separates them is that Kelly produces the hard way – she makes a lot of hustle plays on both ends of the court, just finding her way to the ball when she finds the right opportunity. That she’s able to score at all when she just seems to float around on offense is equally impressive – it shows that she knows how to get things done even if she’s not well integrated into the team’s game plan.
What both players illustrate is that diamonds in the rough are hard to pick out without painting the whole picture. The questions I still have are why did Little not perform better in San Antonio or Atlanta (her PADR scores are negative for both)? What is it about the Storm’s system that allows her to thrive in Jackson’s absence? These questions are the type that are hard to answer statistically – Little’s improved performance could be due to better chemistry with the team, better relationship with the coaching staff, or similarity to an offense she’s known in the past. It’s hard to know.
It will be fun to see what players like Kelly and Little do after the Olympic break and whether they can show flashes of the future as their teams aim for the playoffs.
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