“You Have to Try, You Have to Care!”: The (Totally Subjective) Definition of a Playoff Team

There really is no way to predict who will end up making the playoffs, especially in the Eastern Conference.

However, the one thing that seems to be magnified as the post-season nears in a relatively small professional sports league with amazing parity is effort.

It seems sufficient to answer the question, “Who’s going to make the playoffs?” with the question, “Who wants it more?”

With each additional game played, the significance of the remaining games increases, particularly in the East. Meaning teams not only have to fight through the aches and pains collected during the season, but also the mental demands of the increasing pressure to win.

With the Eastern Conference playoff picture about as clear as the Swamp of Sadness, the playoffs will likely come down to the teams that are willing to fight through the looming threat of going home early.

Sadly, in watching the games last night you could see one team that has seemingly already lost its will to fight.

Watching the two late games last night – the Chicago Sky vs. the Washington Mystics and the Atlanta Dream vs. the Sacramento Monarchs – you could really start to see what separates playoff teams from those that will be adding lottery picks to their roster in 2010.

The Dream beat a Kara Lawson-less Monarchs team in Sacramento to win their second straight in the midst of a five game road trip. Rookie forward Angel McCoughtry strengthened her argument for Rookie of the Year with an impressive all-around game, recording 26 points, 10 assists, and 5 rebounds. Complementing McCoughtry in the post was Erika de Souza who finished with 27 points and 13 rebounds, helping the Dream dominate a traditionally strong Monarchs team inside.

The Dream did exactly what you want to see from a playoff team – they beat a limping team when they had to, even though they were in the middle of a road trip across the country. It makes you think they might be holding fast to the dream of their first playoff bid.

Then there’s the Chicago Sky.

Yes, the Sky beat the Mystics 92-86 to keep themselves in the playoff race.

But the score is actually deceiving – we 34.9 seconds left the Sky were actually down 85-84. The final score is more the result of an untimely turnover from Washington point guard Lindsey Harding and subsequent free throws.

Meaning the Sky were very close to losing this one.

That’s disturbing.

The Sky were essentially, though not mathematically, in a must-win situation at home on four days rest and center Sylvia Fowles returned to the lineup from injury. The Mystics were playing the second of a back-to-back, having beat the Seattle Storm at home the previous night. Oh yeah – they were playing without All-Star guard and standout defender Alana Beard.

No comment on rookie guard Kristi Toliver’s minutes.

It’s not uncommon for Golden State Warriors commentators to sum up the team’s 50th to 60th loss of a season by saying something along the lines of well, despite the narrow loss, it was a great moral victory. Since the NBA – nor any of the aforementioned imaginary basketball deities – has never recorded moral victories, this type of comment always works my nerves.

However, the Chicago Sky –the team that I will throw 100% of my fan fervor behind pending a clear strategy – have helped me to see the value of such a seemingly paradoxical claim by looking at its inverse:

Despite the narrow win, the Sky must be demoralized.

Ok, I know that immediately sounds ridiculous. But had you seen the game – or once you put the game in context – it all makes sense, though it still maintains a hint of absurdity.

If the Sky are not able to step up and put away a battle-weary team on their home floor, what reason do we have to believe that they can survive the fight to the playoffs?

With two of their remaining four games against the Detroit Shock, how will the Sky fend off a grittier, hungrier, and scrappier Shock team?

Looking at both their performance last night and their performance throughout the season, there is no reason to believe that the Sky have what it takes to win this race to the playoffs.

That’s a totally subjective opinion – obviously, I have no way of knowing what will transpire in the coming week. Maybe the Sky will suddenly wake up and play as though they know each other and might have been to a practice together once or twice.

In the meantime, I think they’ve given us ample reason to count them out.

And if that isn’t ample reason to make some changes in the off-season, I’m not sure what is.

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A Point Guard to Build a Dream On: Penicheiro is Still Creativity Personified

Long time WNBA fans have probably seen Sacramento Monarchs point guard drive baseline and hit a cutting teammate for an easy layup thousands of times.

But I still have to step back and say wow.

With just under 6:30 left in the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Dream last night, Penicheiro brought the ball up the court at about ¾ speed in transition. As Dream defenders had done all night, rookie point guard Shalee Lehning was sagging down to the free throw line as Penicheiro got to the three point line, exploiting Penicheiro’s notoriously inconsistent jump shot.

And yet in typical Penicheiro form, she used a series of changes of pace, hesitations, head fakes, and changes of direction to get to the baseline and rendering Lehning almost helpless to stop her. As the Dream defense collapsed – seemingly leaving Penicheiro with nowhere else to go – two of her teammates suddenly became open: forward Hamchetou Maiga-Ba popped out for a jumper on the wing while Rebekkah Brunson waited and cut to the basket through a now clear lane.

Surrounded by four Dream defenders Penicheiro got Dream center Sancho Lyttle to shift her weight in the wrong direction with a subtle ball fake, took to the air and hit the cutting Brunson who was left unattended in the lane. After the defensive havoc Penicheiro had just caused, all Dream forward Erika Desouza could do was foul, sending Brunson to the line.

With the Monarchs down 21 points at that moment in time, the play is insignificant in the grand scheme of things. The Monarchs ultimately lost and Penicheiro didn’t pick up the assist although it was her effort that undoubtedly created the scoring opportunity which ended in free throws. But the way in which she seems to be in total control even as she’s in the middle of switching gears and throwing a flurry of fakes at her opponents never ceases to amaze me.

It’s not necessarily original to say that Penicheiro is the epitome of basketball as an art form – creatively drawing upon the resources revealed to her in a situation to make beauty out of a chaotic world. And even in the twilight of her career, in a 103-83 blowout that pushed the Monarchs further into the cellar of the Western Conference, appreciating Penicheiro is almost a mandate for anyone who considers themselves a true fan of the sport.

Forgive the basketball snobbery, but if you can’t recognize the beauty in Penicheiro’s game, it’s time to move on from basketball and find a new sport.

Given that, it’s probably not a stretch to say that Penicheiro represents something of the archetypal point guard in the basketball universe. She is a pass-first player, with court vision and seemingly in control of every single moment on the court, keeping her dribble live as a means to create things even when everything seems to break down.

Just the other day, Shoals and I briefly exchanged emails about legendary NBA point guard John Stockton and Shoals suggested that Stockton is “an elite role player” – a player who became a Hall of Famer simply by playing his position to perfection. Although Stockton was by far a better shooter than Penicheiro – it still amazes me that a point guard shot 51.5% over a 1,500 game career – Penicheiro is an “elite role player” in a similarly complimentary sense. She plays the position just as most people would imagine it being played in its most ideal sense and excites us when she does something beyond what we’re able to imagine.

Dream point guards Lehning and Ivory Latta pale in comparison to this point guard dream come true from Sacramento. It almost makes you wonder how a team like the Dream can even pull off a win with mere mortals running the point opposite Penicheiro.

But then you remember that this is ultimately a team game – players like Penicheiro can help facilitate plays for her teammates, but if the team doesn’t work well as a unit to begin with, it’s all rendered moot.

The Dream's one-two combo at point guard offer very different things that can be useful at different times – Latta did do what she does well in scoring points but picked up 2 of her three turnovers in garbage time while Lehning did what she does well running the team and picking up 10 assists but didn’t even get a shot off until missing a contested fast break lay up.

The best we can say is that in this situation -- a team with two all-star post players who they went to early and often -- Lehning is working out well running the offense and helping the team get them the ball.

That’s not a final objective judgment of either player’s talent or future as a WNBA player. But to use the notion of a player being functionally effective within a role, Lehning – while not nearly the image of positional perfection that Penicheiro has been – is filling the function of point guard well enough to keep the Dream in second place.

If the question shifts from an assessment of talent based on an idealized positional standard that nobody aside from Penicheiro (or Stockton) are likely to achieve to a question of who fills the role of point guard well enough for the team to be successful, Lehning is doing just fine.

Of course we all wish to have a Penicheiro or Stockton on our favorite teams, but somehow we have to find a way to appreciate the less-than-elite role players too.

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Mercury Beat Monarchs in a Thriller: Who Says WNBA Basketball Isn't Exciting?

Whoa -- what an amazing game between the Mercury and Monarchs! One of the best played overall of a very well played week in the WNBA.

You have to feel for the Monarchs -- they really outplayed the Mercury for the majority of the game and completely neutralized the type of Mercury blitz that the Sparks and Sky had to endure...

But the Mercury really showed something special tonight -- winning a close game (107-105) on the road after really playing a lackluster first half. I'm not anointing them the champions...but they are just doing things that champions do lately.

Even more exciting was the play of DeWanna Bonner and more importantly Courtney Paris -- trading baskets with less than 10 seconds in a tie game before Temeka Johnson lifted the Mercury to victory on a buzzer beating jump shot off the dribble.

More on the rookies later -- their development just gets more and more exciting by the day.

But I will say this about this past week in WNBA basketball: we've seen at least three rookies really turn a quarter and have breakout games within the last week or so between Paris, Renee Montgomery, and Shavonte Zellous.

I know people are saying DeWanna Bonner has the ROY contest all wrapped up, but it's only a third of the way through the season. If these other rookies continue to improve, things could change rapidly...



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Why We Cannot Count the Monarchs Out…Yet

Prior to last night’s game against the Minnesota Lynx, Monarchs announcer Krista Blunk tried to put a positive spin on the Monarchs’ struggles to start the season.

I definitely think they’re better than a 1-3 team and I think it is early. If this is the way the season is going to go, there are going to be games that teams could have won and should have won and there are going to be games that just slip away. And that’s exactly what’s happened.

After the Monarchs let yet another game slip away losing to the Lynx in a closely played 86-83 game, Blunk reiterated her point and Chelsea Newton had more hopeful talk.

We will have everyone back and be healthier. We have a whole week to work on our defense and that is our focus.

Normally when I hear this kind of talk I dismiss it as irrelevant spin.

Clearly, the Monarchs are not in a pleasant situation right now sitting at 1-4 at the bottom of a very competitive Western Conference.

However, the optimism about the Monarchs is not entirely unjustified.

As of today, the Monarchs have played the toughest schedule of any team according to petrel’s RPI rankings on Rebkell, playing 3 of the top five teams in their first 5 games in the WNBA’s power rankings.

Given the injuries keeping players out and the number of players playing with injuries, it would be something of a miracle if the Monarchs were above .500 right now. Even with a healthy roster, they would have to be playing close to championship basketball to come out of that schedule with a winning record.

So beyond what has to be a disappointing start, what can we take away from the Monarchs’ first few games?

I’ve had the opportunity to watch them a few times this season – the road loss against the Storm, the overtime loss against the Mercury, and last night against the Lynx – and this does not strike me as a hopeless team. The problem right now is that with so many pieces banged up, it’s been difficult to establish a rhythm.

So the question is, how good might the Monarchs look once they hit their stride?

There’s no “I” in “team”…but there is in “win”…

The key to Monarchs basketball is their imposing frontline and that they play extremely well as a unit.

So as coach Jenny Boucek has said, even when they blew out the Mercury, the key to this team’s success is execution.


However, the biggest struggle the Monarchs have was touched upon by play by play announcer, Jason Ross. With the Lynx’s LaToya Pringle on the line late in the 4th quarter and the Monarchs up by 1, Ross said the following:

Every time it looks like the Monarchs may be establishing something here comes Minnesota to tie it…and Sacramento has had the lead for a lot of this 4th quarter but just can't seem to get any separation.

Ross’ description of the flow of the game itself is a perfect metaphor for describing the Monarchs’ on-court problems, especially without Ticha Penicheiro.

The Monarchs have a number of talented bigs who can score inside and dominate the offensive boards. However, that requires one of two things – either the perimeter players have to get good shots up within the flow of the offense or they have to get the ball to their bigs in scoring position.

Far too often, neither happened last night when the Monarchs needed it most down the stretch.

Meanwhile, Seimone Augustus was just reminding us why she got WNBA Player of the Week honors last week, almost scoring at will; she was in one of those zones where the defense couldn’t stop her, she just happened to miss occasionally.

As much as I personally love and value team basketball, a team cannot win without someone who can make plays when the team needs it.

The Monarchs’ guards were unable to penetrate and create openings to make plays for most of the game meaning they were making extremely difficult entry passes into the post.

That problem was only compounded by the fact that starting perimeter players Kara Lawson and Sholanda Robinson shot a combined 3-16 from the field and 1-6 from the 3 point line. Lawson did not get to the free throw line once and Robinson went 1-2 from the charity stripe.

In other words, all the Lynx defense had to do was pack it in and cut off the passing lanes. At the end of a close game, it becomes extremely difficult for a team to score when nobody is able to make a play beyond 5 feet from the basket.

At no time was that illustrated better than when the best shot that they could get down one point at home with 8.9 seconds left was a three pointer from Kara Lawson…who was 1-6 to that point.

A team simply can’t win when the defense is able to force them into relying upon a weakness.

Waiting for Ticha’s return…

One player mentioned in post-game interviews that the team is awaiting Ticha Penicheiro’s return and really that would address that problem of making plays.

Lawson is an efficient point guard in that she does not turn the ball over and can run the offense. But she isn’t the type of player who can really force the defense out of their comfort zone to make plays for others at the end of a game.

That’s what the Penicheiro of old could do. And she’s still got enough of that to really help this team.

Blunk suggested on a few occasions that she thinks the Monarchs should run more, but I would argue they don’t have the playmakers out there right now to make plays in space. However, something I was impressed with was the ability of the Monarchs’ bigs to make plays for each other.

Crystal Kelly and DeMya Walker did an excellent job of passing the ball in the post which helped to create plays that catered to their strength – post play. One idea would be to run some sort of high low offense where their post players play a hi-lo double post or some other scheme that would allow them to make decisions with the ball and free the perimeter players to get open in scoring position.

While Kelly still looks nervous with the ball and Walker sometimes looks hesitant to passing situations, the post game is absolutely their strength.

Defense still a work in progress, but offense needs help sooner

The Monarchs’ pointed to the defense as a reason for the loss to the Lynx and it was a problem. Anybody is able to penetrate the Monarchs defense: Augustus, Renee Montgomery, Candice Wiggins, Charde Houston, Nicky Anosike…even Kelly Miller made a cameo in the paint early on in the game.

Their perimeter defense was not just the failing of guards – it was like anyone caught in space with a Lynx player was destined to get beat. That has to be fixed…and likely will be.

But even if they play good defense, they have to be able to score on offense more effectively. Right now, they are almost too reliant on team basketball.

Transition Points:

Crystal Kelly never ceases to amaze me. Krista Blunk suggested she is better coming off the bench and I agree – Kelly is the epitome of a flow player. She sees the game extremely well and just identifies gaps in the defense and quietly puts herself in position to score. When she gets the ball, she’s decisive. As a result, she gets herself to the line extremely well and is able to contribute without appearing to be dominant. It’s really amazing to watch from such a young player.

Renee Montgomery looked solid against the Monarchs though she started off a little rough trying to establish herself by taking shots a little early in the offense at the end of the 1st quarter. In the second half, I thought she calmed down a bit and played within the offense much more effectively. The last three minutes of the 3rd quarter might have been her best performance of her short professional career – in the stat sheet, she recorded an assist, a three pointer, and a floating lay-up. Really, she should have recorded two more assists that were lost when her teammates missed makeable layups. In addition, she played extremely aggressive defense during that stint. Kelly Miller is the better fit as the starter for this team right now, but Montgomery stands to be an impressive point guard down the line.



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Sue Bird, Seattle Fans the Key to Storm Success

The storyline that has captured the headlines about the Storm’s home opener Sunday night is reasonable enough: Lauren Jackson plays in Key Arena for the first time since last July and starts the game with a personal 8-2 run to lead the Storm to an 80-70 victory over the Monarchs.

It feeds off of the summer drama of a big name free agent who ultimately decided to stay loyal to the franchise that made her a star. Great story.

And yet, I saw something different Sunday night in Key Arena.

The most impressive thing about the Storm’s home opener against the Sacramento Monarchs Sunday night was not the individual performances of their stars as much as the way they channeled the fans’ energy into their basketball performance.

There was plenty of reason for fans to be excited Sunday night, aside from the standard excitement about a home opener. Of course, much has been made of the fact that Sunday night was the tenth anniversary of the Storm's founding. About ten minutes before tip, city council members Jan Drago and Bruce Harrell presented Storm president Karen Bryant with a proclamation that declared June 7th, 2009 Seattle Storm Day.

All of that was background to Lauren Jackson’s actual introduction where she was greeted by an almost deafening roar of applause and cheers as she came down the aisle through a mob of excited fans. By the time the game started, the crowd was so hyped up that a Monarchs win would have just seemed…wrong…

I mean, c’mon… you can’t beat the Storm at home with Jackson returning on the first Storm Day…it’s just not right…

Certainly, one could argue that all this talk of the Storm riding a wave of crowd-induced momentum is a bunch of nonsense – after all, the players did have to play the game. But Jackson’s start to the game only reinforces the idea that the crowd sort of lifted the team to victory.

In fact, at first it looked like all the emotion and energy would backfire and force the Storm into a chaotic frenzy -- Jackson picked up her first foul on a reach just after tip while trying to steal the ball and get out on a fast break. However, after getting that reckless play out of her system, Jackson settled down and channeled that energy a bit more effectively.

Jackson got to the free throw line and hit the Storm’s first basket allowing the crowd to sit down and with us sitting down, she proceeded to show us all the full range of her talent. She hit a lay-up off a post up from the block, a three, and then a jumper from the elbow. She also grabbed an offensive rebound or two and blocked a shot. After verbally thanking the fans for all of their support just prior to tip-off, it was as though her play to start the game was simply a reminder that there is more yet to come. Jackson was hyped, the fans got more hyped, and next thing you know it’s 17-4.

It’s always fascinating to watch players draw upon the energy of a spirited home crowd. For the Storm in particular, it is really difficult to deny that a large part of their home court dominance last season was the lift that Seattle fans give them from pre-game introductions to finish. The fan atmosphere at Key Arena is a key ingredient to the Storm Basketball mystique. That momentum absolutely carried them to victory Sunday night.

However, while Jackson got all the headlines for her return performance, it was Sue Bird’s ability to manage the game that kept the momentum going for the Storm. Bird was in full on attack mode from start to finish and when she decides to take on the role of the aggressor, she is among the most difficult players to stop in the WNBA.

While many people judge Bird’s effectiveness by her scoring, it was her ability to control an otherwise sloppy and frenzied game that was most impressive Sunday night.

Bird is much better as an aggressor

At times at the beginning of last season, it seemed as though Bird would be passive to the point of disappearing – it was as though she was deferring to others on a team of all-stars in order to make sure the team’s chemistry was in tact.

After a game against Lindsay Whalen and the Sun, I wrote the following:

Whalen is aggressive, gutsy, and plays with a lot of passion. Her strong build and balance allows her to do things other points cannot (rebound and withstand contact on a drive). She’s a player who can will a team to victory (I still think her Final Four run at the University of Minnesota is one of the greatest tournament performances of all time).

In contrast, Bird is more of a finesse player who plays the role of facilitator, especially on a talent-laden team like the Storm. She’s not necessarily a “pass-first” point guard as she takes some questionable shots and has been a good scorer throughout her career. In fact, she took a number of contested shots and at least two shots before even passing the ball. But what strikes me about Bird – and what probably gets her the label of “pure point guard” -- is that she makes the right decision to set up her teammates and racks up the assists.

Towards the end of the season, that changed and Bird became much more of the gutsy aggressor that I had previously described Whalen as. And when she aggressively attacks the basket and looks to set up her teammates, the Storm become very difficult to stop.

But then there are the other little things Bird does for the team that I think people sometimes overlook – during that 17-4 start, it was Bird getting the team out on the break, orchestrating the half-court offense, and creating turnovers on defense. She knows how to make the right decisions to get her teammates involved and put the team in the best possible position to win given the match-ups. It’s as though Bird was single-handedly responsible for channeling and distributing all of that fan energy to the rest of her teammates.

And it’s not just a matter of dictating the tempo of the game that makes her important. At times she just simply shredded the Monarchs’ defense.

On a particular series of plays in the fourth quarter with about five minutes left in the game, Bird just seemed to be toying with the Monarchs’ defense. First, she recognized a double team and simply dribbled out of it to keep the offense moving. On the second, she was doubled on the wing, split the double before they could set themselves, and hit a one handed floater from the baseline. The next play, she got the team out on the break saw Janell Burse and floated a perfect lead pass to her for the layup and a foul.

Jackson is a force in her own right, but I would argue Bird is the engine that quietly keeps the Storm moving when they hit lulls. When Bird leaves the game, there is a noticeable drop-off in the Storm’s performance and that seems like it is something that has to be addressed. The Storm simply cannot play the same game without Bird running the show for them, regardless of whether Shannon Johnson is healthy or Tanisha Wright is improving. The whole team stagnated without Bird on the floor.

This team is probably deeper this year – especially in the frontcourt – but they will only go as far as Bird takes them. And it’s not necessarily good to be so dependent on one player. What I wonder is how they can figure out to either hold themselves steady at times when Bird has to rest or perhaps change their style of play to accommodate her absence. If the team loses ground every time Bird leaves the floor, they will be in trouble down the line.

Bird and fans deserve co-MVP honors for the Storm

If the Storm are to re-establish their home court dominance this season, it will be important for them to find some way to manage the game while Bird is out of the game. The fan energy will be there and players like Bird are necessary to maintain the momentum on the court that results from that initial burst of fan energy.

But I cannot say enough about Storm fans – it’s truly an amazing environment to watch a game and it gets to a point where you cannot help but root for the Storm once you step in the building, even if you aren’t a die-hard.
During one of the Storm Vision vignettes during the game, Lin Dunn commented, “That’s what’s great about the Seattle community – they’re committed, they’re loyal, and they’re great fans.”

So what on earth is going on in Key Arena that people so fiercely support their team? Part of it is simply the venue

Regardless, the atmosphere in Key Arena is always amazing. And if Seattlites continue this trend, the rest of the league might as well mark an “L” next to their calendar on the dates they visit Seattle.

Related Links:

Snapshots of Opening Night
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2009/06/snapshots-of-opening-night-from-key.html

Transition Points:

Courtney Paris looked much better in her second trip to Key Arena than she did in the first. She looked much more patient in the post and did a better job of finding spots within the offense to score. It will take time for her to figure the WNBA out...but I think Sacramento fans should remain hopeful..

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“At Last”: Opening Day Preview

Finally.

By some strange coincidence, every single WNBA pre-season game was during a meeting, class, or the NBA playoffs (and I think I overslept a morning one or two). So aside from the Storm game that I went to, I have to confess that I have not seen enough of the WNBA pre-season to give a full preview.

But hey, that didn’t exactly stop a few major national publications from writing something…so why shouldn’t I?

So instead of the typical season preview that either does the impossible and predicts the outcomes or gives a roster analysis, I thought I would present a few themes that I intend to follow throughout the season.

A first will probably come as no surprise if you followed this blog last season: the role of the point guard.

I was talking to some folks the other day about how some people were claiming that last year in the NBA was the “Year of the Point Guard”, that point guards like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Rajon Rondo were emerging to dominate the league.

Then of course, when you look at this year’s NBA playoffs, of the four teams that made the semifinals, only one (Denver) had an established point guard (Mo Williams is solid but not quite “established” yet). So the point guard match-ups in the Finals are as follows: Derek Fisher, Tony Farmar, and Shannon Brown vs. Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson (still recovering from injury), and Anthony Johnson?

Does it look to you that point guards are the key to these teams? On the surface, not really…but that’s where I took the argument a bit further.

My whole point about the point guard is that it’s a position about decision making and goodness of fit. Successful teams don’t absolutely need a superstar point guard capable of completely dominating a game (e.g. Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups). They need a style of point guard that both defines and fits what they want to do.

The decision making framework becomes a particularly relevant point once you reach the second tier of point guards – does your point guard know when to push the ball and when to slow it down? Do they know when to drive or when to shoot? Do they know when to take the ball and swing it or reset the offense? Can they make an eff-ing entry pass?

All of these things sound super simple, right? Yeah, but some people simply don’t have it even though they have all the physical tools in the world.

What we have seen from the point guards playing in the Finals is solid decision making frm…even if that means pass to Kobe and clear. Derek Fisher’s style of play – as much as I despise him for his performance with and against the Warriors – is a great fit for the Lakers because he generally makes good decisions (as in limiting turnovers). Farmar is nice as a change of pace to pick up the tempo with the second unit, which has been extremely effective at times. Rafer Alston is perfect for the Magic because he can penetrate and find open shooters.

It seems likely that we will see a similar pattern in the WNBA this year – the best point guards in the league (Sue Bird & Lindsay Whalen) might be at home watching the conference finals. But I would argue that the point guard play of this year’s pre-season front-runner (the Sparks) will be huge.

And there will be a few teams whose playoff hopes might be riding on the play of a rookie point guard by the end of the season – there were three point guards taken in the first six picks of the draft and by the end of the season, all three could be starters.

So with that, my top five players and teams to watch as the season begins.

Top 5 Players to Watch

5. Lifelock’s Diana Taurasi: Always interesting to watch and will have quite a burden trying to get her team to the playoffs. Having Lauren Jackson would have been nice, but she showed last year that she can take a team to the brink of the playoffs almost by herself. When you look around at the Western Conference, it will be tough to make the playoffs…and if the Mercury want it, Taurasi will have to have an amazing season. I think she can do it.

4. Kristi Toliver, Renee Montgomery, and Briann January: All three of these point guards could be starting by mid-season depending on how the veterans around them play and how they fit into their respective systems. And I think following the progression of rookie point guards is fascinating. January has already been announced the starter of her team, Toliver has a good chance to challenge Chicago’s shooting guards filling the point guard spot, and Montgomery will have to work. But this will be interesting to watch – by the end of the season, who will be the best point guard in the 2009 draft?

3. Sylvia Fowles: the main storyline this season will probably be Lisa Leslie retiring and passing the torch to Candace Parker. But I see it slightly differently – the torch in terms of WNBA post play is being passed to Fowles. And she’s more than ready. The big question will be how the Sky use her. Last year, it just seemed like she was not incorporated into the offense very well. This year having demonstrated what she can do both in Europe and the Olympics, it seems unfathomable that she would not be the focal point of this team. No pressure, Coach Key.

2. Lindsay Whalen: This might seem like an odd pick, but she just seems like the eternal underdog. The GMs selected Sue Bird as the best point guard in the league in something of a landslide, which makes me wonder, what does Lindsay Whalen have to do to establish herself as the best? Well, winning a championship would be nice, but it seems unlikely this year. Some of their young players will have a year more under their belts though which could give Whalen more support so they don’t go through another 8 game slump like last year. But ultimately the Sun’s chances will boil down to Whalen. And if they do well, might she be anointed the top point guard in the league next year?

1. Candace Parker: Duh. That was easy. Coming back off her MVP season and off-season pregnancy, can she get her first championship?

Top 5 Teams to Watch

5. Diana Taurasi’s Lifelock (aka Phoenix Mercury): I love Diana Taurasi…and really, how can you not? She all about helping the children stay healthy and everything. But seriously – and no disrespect to Cappie Pondexter – the Mercury will live or die based on Taurasi’s performance this season. And if this Mercury team somehow gets to the playoffs – as 50% of WNBA GMs predicted – she is hands down the 2009 WNBA MVP. How 50% of GMs predicted the Mercury making the playoffs and only one predicted Taurasi winning the MVP is actually baffling to me.

4. New York Liberty: OK, ok… yes, I just really like Leilani Mitchel as a point guard. But that’s not really the point. The question for the Liberty is whether they can take that next step and return to the WNBA finals…which ultimately comes down to a question of whether they can take down Detroit.

3. Sacramento Monarchs: This is my dark horse team of the 2009 season. I’ve seen some people write this team off but as usual, this frontcourt is absolutely loaded. And when this team is clicking on all cylinders, they will be extremely difficult to stop. They have added Courtney Paris – who I think will be a force on the boards – and have a constantly improving Crystal Kelly to make up a potentially dominant frontcourt of the future. They have also added Hamchetou Maiga-Ba who should be able to just adds another veteran presence. This is a team with the capacity to challenge the top teams in the Western Conference while simultaneously having a bright future. And that’s always fascinating to watch. And I will never ever…evaevaevaevaeva count out Ticha Penicheiro…ok?

2. Chicago Sky: I just love the Sky. I love the combination of talent they have: two great post players, an outstanding all-around perimeter player in Jia Perkins, and Armintie Price who is just one of the league’s great personalities. Not that personalities win games…but it makes it even more fun to root for (or in the case of Kobe Bryant, against). I have gone on and on about them in the past, so I spare you here. But I’m really really interested in seeing how Kristi Toliver fits into this team. She could easily take the starting spot by mid-season.

1. LA Sparks: the Sparks have put together one of those fantasy teams that almost try to shape destiny by bringing together a group of players that just seems unstoppable…you know, if they all play the way they’re supposed to and actually come together to work as a team. It’s almost as with these squads are supposed to overwhelm you with star power before you even step on the court.

And as we saw last year with the Storm, this doesn’t always work…

In the NBA, the 2000 Portland Trailblazers and the 2004 LA Lakers immediately come to mind. Really, they had two different problems – the Blazers were just loaded top to bottom whereas the Lakers had four Hall of Famers and little depth. What’s interesting is that in this year’s WNBA just as in the NBA in 2004, it could be a gritty Detroit team that was assembled for a particular style of play that topples the fantasy team.

But in addition to trying to bring this talent and mold them into a team, there will be the additional adjustment once Candace Parker comes back to the team. So they will have to do a double adjustment this season…and that doesn’t sound easy in the WNBA’s short regular season. The key will be to see where they’re at near the end of the season. And you have to wonder how that will influence home court advantage in the Western Conference.

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Pre-Season Opening Night in Seattle: Courtney Paris, Ashley Walker, Crystal Kelly...and a Great Atmosphere

Paying to see a WNBA pre-season game seems like a completely irrational choice compared to the alternative of sitting at home (or a bar) to watch Game 2 of the NBA’s Western Conference Finals.

Yet, I suppose the fact that I went to the Seattle Storm’s pre-season opener against the Sacramento Monarchs demonstrates how eager I am for the WNBA season to get started.

I have been to WNBA games in Key Arena before and the energy has always been high. So I was really curious to see what it would be like in this pre-season opener after a long, dark, rainy Seattle off-season (it had been gray and rainy earlier this week…and it’s May). But even though the crowd was relatively small at just under 5,000 people -- many of them kids – they more than made up for it with their energy. At times I couldn’t believe it was just a pre-season game. It was a great place to be overall…but more on that later.

Given the atmosphere, any hope of maintaining an analytical lens for this meaningless game was quickly tossed out the window.

I hadn’t really caught up on any media day information anyway so I went to the game not really knowing the state of either team. I figured I would just go and see what caught my attention. After all, it’s a pre-season game – teams are shaking off the rust, coaches are still evaluating players, and players are still learning how to play with each other in the team concept. Despite those factors, there are a few notes worth pointing out.

The first thing that struck me was the play of Ticha Penicheiro, but that’s to be expected from one of the all-time greats. Even though she is nearing the end of her career, her presence is felt every time she’s on the court. She appears to have total command of the game at every moment she’s on the court. She is one of the most decisive basketball players I’ve ever watched – male or female. And it’s an especially noticeable difference when her play is compared to that of the other point guards in the game who are unmistakably no more than back-up players, if not destined to be cut. I could go on...

But what really stood out for me was the play of the young post players in the game – Ashley Walker, Courtney Paris, Crystal Kelly. Kelly was someone who caught my attention during her rookie campaign last season as an extremely efficient post player. Paris is obviously a much more highly touted rookie who I actually saw play in person a few years back when Oklahoma played the University of San Francisco. I had never seen Ashley Walker play but heard good things about her career at the University of California – Berkeley.

But why is this so significant to me?

When I first tried to watch the WNBA back in the 1990’s one of the biggest critiques my dorm-mates and I had about the league was the lack of quality post play – compared to the NBA, it was rare to see players bang and fight for rebounds or establish position and pull off a drop step in the post to score on their opponent.

Watching now over a decade later, the improved post play is one of the most striking elements of the game. It’s possible that I’m just off base on this point, but it just seems like the post game is definitely evolving and part of that is likely the increasing visibility of the professional game over the last decade.

I find that analyzing post players is always easier to witness live than through the narrow lens of the television or computer screen, so it was great to get a chance to see these players up close.

Of course, this was only a pre-season game so it’s hard to make any broad claims about these young players. So I’m really going to rely on my subjective observations rather than the less subjective statistics. And overall, I think both teams have reason to be hopeful about their post players.

Crystal Kelly: Building on a solid rookie campaign

What impressed me most about Crystal Kelly last year was her instincts. Despite limited minutes and a shifting role on the team, she could just jump into the game and figure out how to rebound, get to the free throw line or score easy baskets. It’s not really something you see very often from rookies. With a year of experience under her belt and a full pre-season to work with her teammates, I would definitely expect her to become an even more efficient player throughout this season.

Really, last night was more of the same from Kelly. She sees the game extremely well. She does an excellent job of finding spaces in the defense and getting there as quickly as possible. When she gets the ball, there are few young players as decisive as she is in either attempting to score or passing the ball and finding herself another opportunity. She does not waste motion at all in moving around the court – in a way she embodies the old mantra be quick, not in a hurry.

However, as usual Kelly does these little things so quietly from play to play that it’s easy for her to go unnoticed, especially in a pre-season game when the point guard play and overall team ball movement are still suspect. It will be interesting to see how she does this season as she gets a better grasp of the team’s offense and her teammates get used to her.

Courtney Paris: Shall we believe the hype?

Sure, you may look at Paris’ line of two points, five rebounds, and one block and think, uh-oh, she’s not ready.

I would instead urge patience.

Let's put this in perspective: it was only her first game so I think the strengths that she demonstrated are actually more impressive than her weakness are disheartening.

Paris will clearly be a good rebounder for the Monarchs from the start. She’s got a big body, she’s not afraid to bang, and she is probably tough enough to fight with almost anyone in the league for rebounds.

That toughness she displays when fighting for rebounds is exactly what will help her offensively as well.

There was one play in particular in the first half where she literally came down the middle of the court, threw her forearms into the chest of her defender in stride, made a quick pivot, and established pretty good position on the block. She’s not afraid of contact and that’s a great sign for a young player. The problem comes after she touches the ball.

First of all, while she is tough and big, it seems that she’s not used to the strength of professional players. She’s going to have to adjust to the fact that she will feel more resistance from WNBA players than she did at Oklahoma. There were times in the second half where Kasha Terry – about 55 pounds lighter than Paris – was able to hold her position pretty well against Paris.

Second, once she got the ball in the post, she was rushing her moves. When her initial move was stopped, she wasn’t really able to recover and transition into a second move. Part of the trouble was that the Storm were doubling occasionally after Paris put the ball on the floor the first time. Since she went into her move so quickly, she wasn’t able to anticipate that double, got stuck, and had to make a frantic pass out of the post or take a poor shot. With a little more patience in the post, I imagine her footwork and hard-nosed play will allow her to become a much more effective post scorer.

Lastly, I think it’s important to note that these two things – strength and patience – are things that young post players always have to work out when they make the leap to the next level. After she adjusts to the opponents, adjusts to the offense, and figures out her role on the team I think she’ll be fine.

I think it will be interesting to see how Kelly and Paris fit into the Monarchs rotation. Both seem to have immense potential on an aging team. If they can continue to develop, they should have a very nice frontcourt duo for the future.

Ashley Walker: "A nose for the ball"

I had never seen Walker play before last night…but wow -- it's hard to miss her once she steps on the court.

She’s all over the court, wherever the ball is. Really, I could not even tell what position she was playing at times as she would be in the post fighting for rebounds on one play and then out guarding Hamchétou Maïga-Ba on the next play. Regardless, she just seemed to be making plays.

From Brian Agler’s post-game comments posted in audio format on the Storm’s website (at the 1:50 mark):

Yeah you see those types of players, those very good rebounders. Those are natural things you don’t teach a lot of that…that’s just a natural nose for the ball. You’ve heard that term a lot. You know those people just for whatever reason have it. They anticipate well, they sort of see what’s going to happen before it happens and just have the ability to make plays.

Really, she has very similar instincts to what I would ascribe to Crystal Kelly. The big difference is Walker really fights for boards in the post. She got three offensive rebounds simply as a result of out working her opponent and being in the right place at the right time.

She is probably a more versatile scorer than Paris or Kelly in that she seems to be able to do more with the ball in her hands, but like Paris, it seemed like she is still adjusting to the changing competition. I don’t recall her pulling off a strong post move, but she more than makes up for that by being able to hit short jumpers and create second chance opportunities.

Walker has a chance to be a real force in the WNBA. She’s tough, strong, and clearly has great instincts. She had some defensive lapses, but that was because she was guarding players clearly faster than her out on the perimeter, which is clearly not her strength at this time in her career. It will be interesting to see how she’s integrated into the offense long-term with the return of Lauren Jackson and the solid play of Ashley Robinson and Camille Little.

I think Walker is on her way to distinguishing herself on a solid Storm team.

An amazing atmosphere

Despite solid play from these three post players, the most striking thing about this game was the atmosphere, which I alluded to at the beginning of this post.

I was talking to a jazz musician the other day about the power of hearing live music – how it adds another layer to the music when you can watch the coordination of the artists, their emotions expressed through body language, and the energy that is put into making each note. It’s a value added to the listening experience that cannot be reconstructed with a studio recording.

Attending a live professional basketball game is similar to me (though not directly analogous) and part of that is because of the crowd – that energy cannot be recreated sitting at home.

For example, during one sequence in the third quarter, Ashley Robinson grabbed an offensive rebound and quickly put the ball back in with a short running bank shot. Then on the ensuing defensive possession, Robinson blocked a shot and the crowd just went nuts – you would have thought it was a mid-season game of some consequence.

To be sure, I imagine this is not too dissimilar to the pre-season in any sport – you have to be a special kind of rabid to shell out hard earned dollars to watch teams work out their bench players’ kinks. However, what’s unique about the WNBA environment is that it feels more like a community in the building.

When Robinson made those plays, people weren’t just yelling drunken cheers or turning to their neighbor and saying, “Wow, that Robinson sure can play.” The whole game they were not only calling players by their first name, but they were just shouting out words of encouragement as though they knew these people. I suppose it’s hard to describe in comparison to a NBA game or a college basketball game, but it definitely has its own unique feel; a friendlier, more positive atmosphere.

But what really got me was a moment near the end of the game.

I was writing down some final thoughts with about a minute to go when everyone started standing up. The game was pretty much over, not to mention the fact that it was meaningless to begin with. I had already checked out mentally and sort of got lost in my own thoughts about the game.

Then a boy in front of me – no older than six – with the most adorable big brown eyes and wavy brown hair stands up and looks over to his mom who had been quite motionless and disengaged for most of the game. He looks back at me as I’m jotting down a few more notes and I catch his gaze but quickly look back down and keep writing.

For some reason I looked back at the kid a few moments later and see him grinning. I sort of grin back and he starts smiling at me expectantly while widening his eyes, sort of begging me to stand up. I laugh, put my pad down and stand up with just about every other able-bodied person in the building.

At that point, he taps his mom on the shoulder and motions back to me as if to say, hey, if that dork taking notes all game is standing, so should you! She sighs and stands and he looks back at me with the most contented smile.

Now perhaps I’m just a sucker for a story like that because I used to be an elementary school teacher and I just think the innocence of childhood is among the best things humanity has to offer. But it was just amazing to me that this kid almost didn’t even care about the time and score, which is what we’re all coached to focus on during a close game. This kid was just completely lost in the moment and expected everyone else to join in with him. When the buzzer sounded the crowd gave the team a standing ovation and the kid looked back at me on his way out, still with that big smile.

Those moments don’t seem to come along very often and when they do, I absolutely treasure them. And there is something about the WNBA atmosphere that just cultivates this amazing spirit when you’re in the arena. I have no idea what it is – normally at sports games I’ve identified about three dudes I would fight (if I was a little bit taller…and bigger) by the fourth quarter. Something else was going on there in that pre-season WNBA game in the last minute. Something special.

(Edited for grammar and flow: 5/25/09)

Related Links:

Game recap from Jayda Evans:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/storm/2009249482_storm22.html

Post-game interview with Ashley Walker
http://www.wnba.com/storm/media/storm/walker_090521.WMA

Storm Defeat Monarchs In Exhibition
http://www.spmsportspage.com/published/pro/WNBA/Storm-Defeat-Monarchs.shtml

Storm.com photo gallery
http://www.wnba.com/storm/multimedia/monarchs_090521.html

Transition Points:

It’s a shame players are going to have to get cut. When Kimberly Beck went down in the third quarter, my first thought was my lord, I hope she doesn’t get cut due to injury. When she did re-enter the game, it was great to hear the crowd applaud her.

There’s often an assumption that male WNBA fans attend games either with female partners or daughters, but it was great to see the large number of fathers with sons out at the game tonight as well. These players aren’t just role models for girls -- honestly if I wanted a son to learn the game of basketball, I’d be more likely to take him to a WNBA game than NBA game. That’s a personal choice and really a false dichotomy anyway since they’re played at different times…but you get the point…

My logic for skipping the NBA playoffs last night was that I’d have at least two more chances to watch two teams I despise compete for a trip to the NBA Finals. I honestly don’t care who wins and every clutch shot Derek Fisher makes just makes me cringe (I’m an authentic Bay Area Laker Hater ever since they traded Eddie Jones back in 1999). Now that the Lakers lost, I have three more chances to catch that series. Double sweet.

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The Most Outstanding Rookies: How do we compare rookies…fairly?

Yesterday I looked at rookies from the perspective of potential instead of production because ultimately, the best players will exceed their first year production.

However, in the comments from Monday’s post about Crystal Kelly, Kbailey3131 asked a great question that I think begs a more balanced approach to evaluating rookies: how can we compare rookies with different strengths knowing that they will develop in the future?

A recent discussion Monarchs fan had over on their fan board had to do with comparing Crystal to her teammate Laura Harper asking if Kelly is "better" than Harper. I don't think you can adequately compare the two right now because they are different types of players. How does Harper rank and how would you go about statistically comparing the two in a way that measures what they each do well and make projections long term?

It’s a difficult question, but one worth tackling because that is essentially the comparison made to determine the rookie of the year. And I think Harper and Kelly are a good starting point...and I'll look forward to input on some other good pairs.

Honestly, my instinct is always to favor the player who just seems to be involved in more positive plays when in the game – that would be Crystal Kelly, who is primarily a scorer, whereas Harper is a rebounder that stands out less. That tendency highlights not only the problem of comparing across player style that KBailey points out, but also the tendency to favor players who grab our attention by scoring.

The WNBA.com rookie rankings very much favor scoring if you look at them closely – their rankings are essentially the rookie scoring leaders adjusted slightly to account for team winning percentage (and Fowles’ injury). While the results seem to match common sense -- Candace Parker is consistently #1 – it makes it difficult to fully appreciate second or third tier players who might influence the game in more subtle ways. And that's what I'll set out to do here...

*** Long post warning: If you would like to cut to the chase and see the final rankings and/or the verdict on Kelly vs. Harper, scroll down to the section titled "Overall Most Outstanding Rookie(s)" ***.

The method

As we know, there's more to basketball than scoring – ball movement, shooting, offensive rebounding, and turnovers are all key elements. So perhaps one way to figure out which rookie is best is to compare their production in those important elements of the game. Evaluating rookies using these elements seems to evaluate players' all around games without favoring any particular position – perimeter and interior players benefit differently from each area.

Another area of interest is defense, which can obviously influence an opponent’s ability to produce in any one of those key areas. It’s tough to make an objective assessment of a player’s defense without counting the actual number of times the player is responsible for stopping the opponent they’re guarding. But I think there is some work being done that is moving in that direction.

So with these principles in mind, let’s try to answer KBailey’s question by comparing Harper, Kelly…and A’quonesia Franklin for good measure. In the process, I will rank all the rookies rotisserie style by scoring them 1-25 in each category below. While #1 may not be surprising, some of the others might be.

Ball movement – how “unselfish” is she?

We’ll start with ball movement to give Franklin a head start. I’m using assist ratio – the percentage of a player’s plays that end in an assist – to account for a player’s contribution to their team’s assisted field goal percentage. Of course it is flawed in that it does not account for assists lost, but I think it’s a good enough metric.

Assist ratio would of course strongly favor point guards who are given ball handling responsibilities and tend to rack up more assists, but it’s also good for sorting out the passing skills of bigs like Harper and Kelly.

Here’s the top ten, plus our Monarchs of interest:

Assist Ratio
1. Mitchell, Leilani 38.66
2. Franklin, A'Quonesia 36.00
3. Bobbitt, Shannon 30.25
4. Swanier, Ketia 26.37
5. Hornbuckle, Alexis 20.17
6. White, Erica 19.87
7. Holt, Amber 19.10
8. Atunrase, Morenike 17.65
9. Gardin, Kerri 17.47
10. Wiggins, Candice 16.30
23. Harper, Laura 6.13
24. Kelly, Crystal 3.88

Well here’s one instance where Parker is actually out of the top 10 (she’s #12). No surprise that Mitchell is at the top here, especially since she has been so efficient with the ball during the month of July, posting an insane 7:1 assist to turnover ratio. Franklin is quietly right behind Mitchell although Mitchell plays more minutes and scores more meaning that her ratio of assists to everything else she does is even more impressive.

Regarding Harper and Kelly, they are both near the bottom of this list, but it’s interesting to see the distance between them. All this says to me is that when Harper gets the ball, she’s more likely to score – since the equation takes into account shots and free throws as well, Kelly’s proportion of assists relative to everything else is smaller, but perhaps not that much “worse” than Harper. So that’s pretty much a wash.

Turnover ratio: How well does she take care of the ball?

Obviously, turnovers are costly so a player’s ability to keep those down are critical to their individual and team success. This might seem to benefit guards who generally have better ball handling skills and get the ball less in traffic, but they also generally have the ball in their hands more. That’s why we look at the percentage of plays that end in a player turning the ball over. The top ten, plus Monarchs:

Turnover ratio
1. Wiggins, Candice 9.22
2. Anderson, Jolene 9.43
3. Anosike, Nicky 9.92
4. Holt, Amber 10.79
5. Carson, Essence 12.00
6. Ajavon, Matee 12.09
7. Parker, Candace 13.14
8. Humphrey, Tasha 13.35
9. Mitchell, Leilani 13.88
10. Young, Tamera 14.14
13. Kelly, Crystal 14.98
18. Franklin, A'Quonesia 18.00
20. Harper, Laura 20.07

A quick note on Wiggins here – I find it amazing that she turns the ball over so infrequently given the way she plays, which borders on reckless abandon at times. It’s a testament to her skill with the ball that she ranks so highly, even just among rookies.

We see some separation here between Kelly and Harper that I think is notable. When you consider how little Harper touches the ball and the fact that a lot of those touches likely come from rebounds, turning the ball over on one in every five plays is somewhat discouraging. Ditto for Franklin who is expected to take care of the ball. You have to imagine that this is why she plays so little…in addition to playing behind Ticha Penicheiro.

Offensive rebound rate: What percentage of available rebounds does she grab?

Offensive rebound percentage is one of Dean Oliver’s four factors because offensive rebounds extend offensive possessions, thus putting more pressure on the defense. So it’s something I would use in judging the quality of a player, especially forwards like Harper or Kelly. And this turns out to be one of Harper’s strengths. Here are the top 10 rookies, with Monarchs:

Off. Rebound Rate
1. Pringle, LaToya 15.33
2. Larkins, Erlana 14.86
3. Harper, Laura 13.40
4. Langhorne, Crystal 12.30
5. Gruda, Sandrine 10.86
6. Kelly, Crystal 9.73
7. Anosike, Nicky 9.52
8. Humphrey, Tasha 9.35
9. Fowles, Sylvia 9.05
10. Hornbuckle, Alexis 8.95
25. Franklin, A'Quonesia 1.81

It’s interesting to see Hornbuckle crack the top 10 here and I imagine it’s due to the number of hustle plays she makes just beating bigger players to the ball.

So this is where Harper shines – her size in the post allows her to get more offensive rebounds than Kelly while she’s on the court. And a difference of a few offensive rebounding percentage points could mean a difference of around 20 players, so it’s significant.

True shooting percentage: How good a shooter is she?

I also used this yesterday in my rookie potential rankings. I’m using it here because I think shooting efficiency is essential to being a productive player. It’s possible to be a productive player without shooting well, but it means one must be exceptional at something else. But here is the top ten and where the Monarchs fall:

TS%
1. Kelly, Crystal 63.26
2. Langhorne, Crystal 62.5
3. Humphrey, Tasha 59.84
4. Parker, Candace 56.84
5. Wiggins, Candice 56.62
6. Pringle, LaToya 54.84
7. Mitchell, Leilani 53.80
8. Harper, Laura 53.64
9. Larkins, Erlana 53.12
10. Anosike, Nicky 52.88
25. Franklin, A'Quonesia 30.24

The Monarchs know a thing or two about poor shooting point guards, but Franklin has yet to show the playmaking abilities of Penicheiro. The thing is, Franklin is an 80% free throw shooter so it’s her shooting from the field that’s dragging her down – 24% from the field and 23% from three point land. That’s not very promising for a turnover prone 5’4” guard.

Kelly’s free throw shooting is a really huge asset for her as it makes her an extremely effective post scorer – when she knows how to create space and hold a position and if she’s fouled she can make the defense pay from the line.

Valuable Contributions Rating: How much does she contribute to the team?

Valuable contributions rating is yet another David Sparks creation that provides us with an idea of an individual player’s ability to make contributions to the team, independent of team success. It’s a ratio of player production to team production and he describes the basis for the “production” aspect of this statistic at Hardwood Paroxysm.

I add it here as the best thing (readily) available (that I know of) to account for a WNBA player’s production, how they help their own team, and how well they disrupt their opponent’s production. I didn’t use it as a standalone here because the weights were set for the NBA and though they may be close to WNBA weights, I’m content to use it in conjunction with these other statistics for now. Here are the VCRs:

VCR
1. Parker, Candace 1.74
2. Wiggins, Candice 1.42
3. Kelly, Crystal 1.39
4. Anosike, Nicky 1.34
5. Langhorne, Crystal 1.34
6. Humphrey, Tasha 1.33
7. Fowles, Sylvia 1.26
8. Pringle, LaToya 1.2
9. Gruda, Sandrine 1.14
10. Hornbuckle, Alexis 1.05
13. Harper, Laura 0.95
23. Franklin, A'Quonesia 0.51

The league average VCR is .76 and VCRs of 2.0 or greater are almost unheard of in the NBA, according to Sparks. So that should give you a sense of the scale and how good this rookie class is. I think it underscores the point I made from the outset – scoring is not the only valuable element of basketball and we overvalue it far too often. Langhorne, Pringle, and Hornbuckle are definitely not big scorers.

As for Kelly vs. Harper, we see that VCR actually reinforces the idea that Kelly is the more productive overall player than Kelly, given that she makes more valuable contributions to the team. After this and the other numbers presented, it would be difficult to argue strongly that Harper is better than Kelly.

Overall Most Outstanding Rookie(s)

So, it should be obvious that the most outstanding rookie of 2008 is Candace Parker – subjectively or objectively, real or fantasy. But what this exercise allows me to do is also present a first and second WNBA All-Rookie team for your criticism (though I know the WNBA only does one All-Rookie team). I went straight by the numbers and there are some surprises. Here are the teams, with numbers:

First Team:
Name Total Rank
Parker, Candace 95
Wiggins, Candice 94
Anosike, Nicky 91
Humphrey, Tasha 91
Kelly, Crystal 83

Second Team:
Mitchell, Leilani 80
Langhorne, Crystal 79
Pringle, LaToya 77
Hornbuckle, Alexis 75
Holt, Amber 74

12. Harper, Laura 63
24. Franklin, A'Quonesia 37

If I were voting, I’d move Mitchell to the first team over Kelly since they’re reasonably close…and I just like what Mitchell has done in her first season. And those two players represent just two of multiple differences between the WNBA.com rankings and these -- Mitchell, Langhorne, Pringle, and Hornbuckle are all players who have been very productive without being big scorers.

Fowles probably didn’t make it at this point because she’s been injured which has hurt her statistics, but subjectively, she is undoubtedly one of the top five rookies of this class. It’s conceivable that she could even accumulate stats to play her way onto the first team with some good games after the Olympic break, but she will likely get an honorable mention instead.

Some people may dispute Humphrey being on the first team in favor of players like Ajavon, Young, Houston, or Carson. But I can’t think of a convincing argument for anyone beneath Humphrey. There are not many rookies able to contribute to a team in as many ways as Humphrey on offense and she has excellent basketball awareness. Her defense is coming along as well and she’ll almost certainly develop as a post defender playing for Laimbeer and Mahorn. I also think it speaks volumes about Humphrey’s talent that she has earned a starting role as part of one of the deepest frontcourts in the league.

Instincts count

People might also disagree with Kelly being the fifth rated rookie, but you know how people talk about great players having that “It” factor? I think it’s hard to find a rookie with better instincts than Kelly’s, especially around the basket. In fact, I think she’s one of those players where her mechanics are behind her instincts – with practice and repetition she should get even better.

When comparing the Monarchs’ rookies, I think that’s what it comes down to – Kelly’s instincts put her above Harper right now and her skill set makes her more productive than Franklin. What makes her a great scorer is her ability to initiate contact and hit free throws despite occasionally giving up an inch or two to her opponents. Overall, Kelly looks more decisive and fluid with the ball and that should pay off in the future.

Defensively, neither is great, but Harper’s ability to extend possessions with offensive rebounds is valuable. However, Kelly’s quick hands and anticipation allow her to pick up steals and that will definitely benefit her. Harper also has a nagging tendency to pick up fouls and I think that’s because she looks a little bit more mechanical inside than Kelly.

But to answer the question about balance, right now, there’s no contest: Kelly is the more productive and more promising player statistically. Yesterday’s look at ts% and plus/minus rating demonstrate that Kelly seems to know how to pick her spots and make an impact on the court efficiently. Her diamond rating further reinforced the notion that she has plenty of room for growth, possibly the most of any rookie.

In terms of first year production, whereas Harper could become a dominant rebounder which will extend possessions for her team, Kelly is more efficient with the ball (higher ts%, lower turnover %) and she makes a much stronger overall contribution to the team (VCR).

So to return to the original point in KBailey’s comment, it might be possible to compare these two players and determine that Kelly is better. However, Monarchs fans probably shouldn’t worry about that – they have quite a dynamic frontcourt duo in the fold that complement each other very well in the front court, in fact, they fill in each other’s blanks in many ways. They could be the core of a very bright future in Sacramento.

Transition Points:

What are your thoughts? Who would you put on the WNBA All-Rookie team and why? Which of these choices do you disagree with most strongly? I'll look forward to the comments...

I interpret the Rookie of the Year as rewarding the “most outstanding” or “most productive” rookie, independent of their team’s winning percentage. The reason I like to think of it that way is that 1) rookies are inconsistent so they might lose as many games as they win in some cases and 2) the best ones are usually drafted to bad teams so they don’t win. Since Harper and Kelly are on the same team anyway, it’s a nice mini-case to use in figuring out how to compare rookies when winning is equal.

I was looking for some background info on Laura Harper and this page came up. I’m wondering it’s the discussion KBailey was referring to: http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showthread.php?p=558024

Although Kelly has the better plus/minus for the season, Harper won the plus/minus battle in their loss Sunday against the Storm, which I watched: Harper +11, Kelly -8.

Matt at the Connecticut Sun blog takes a nice look at Jolene Anderson...who was tied for 20th in these rankings and tied for last in yesterday's rookie potential rankings...with A'Quonesia Franklin...

Found this rap about Candace Parker and posted it in my video of the day box (top right corner of the page). Better than one might expect from YouTube.

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Crystal Kelly & Camille Little: What makes for a potential diamond in the rough?

Crystal Kelly and Camille Little may not be the type of players that attract fans to the WNBA, but they are the type of key players that are essential for making a strong playoff showing after the Olympic break

If you don’t pay close attention, you might miss how players like Kelly and Little impact the game. They go about their business on the court quietly and without making the kind of plays that make you go “wow”. But when you look at the box score, you realize they have had an extremely effective and efficient game.

The Olympic break is an important time for players like Kelly and Little and not because they’ll be playing for someone in Beijing. Kelly is one of the more underrated players in a talented rookie class whose minutes have increased over the season because of her amazing efficiency. Little was traded to Seattle earlier this season and got inconsistent minutes prior to Jackson’s departure for the Olympics.

For these players, and other talented players who have shown great promise in limited minutes (e.g. Alison Bales, Sandrine Gruda, and Crystal Langhorne), this time is like the pre-season that most teams never got. It’s a chance to, you know, actually learn the plays and their team’s system. So while the spotlight will be on the players in Beijing on the world stage, the players who stand to benefit the most are these players who have shown considerable promise.

So I chose to watch Sacramento play Seattle yesterday because of Crystal Kelly (and Seattle has been web casted so little this season). Little was a “bonus” because she is already having a “breaking out” of sorts, but I had not watched her since she was inserted into the starting lineup. For me, Kelly and Little are just the types of players that are exciting to follow not only because it’s exciting when they actually do breakout, but also because it’s great to see hard working players get the job done off the bench.

What I think both players showed in the Storm’s 77-71 win is that they have an impact game by doing the simple things on the court really well. And I noticed something else that I think indicates a brighter future for Kelly – whereas Little production could be attributed to the strength of the Storm’s system, Kelly is productive as a rookie because she just seems to always be in the right place to make things happen. So I would bet that with experience Kelly ends up being the better player and I think that is demonstrated well with statistics and personal observation.

Finding “diamonds in the rough”

I first “noticed” Kelly when I did my original rookie rankings this season. She was the biggest surprise on the list, mainly because I hadn’t heard of her. I had even watched a few Monarchs games and she just didn’t stand out. And that is probably the classic example of a diamond in the rough.

Every year in every sport there are players just seem to improve dramatically from one season to the next and make you say, wow, where on earth did that player come from. Sometimes it’s attributed to hard work in the off-season or a rookie getting experience and learning the system. However often times, these players are quietly productive in limited minutes and we just don’t notice because they don’t do anything particularly spectacular.

Kevin Broom created a metric called diamond rating to identify these types of players in the NBA and Petrel at the Pleasant Dream Blog created an adjusted version called “Petrel Adjusted Diamond Rating”, which is adjusted for WNBA minutes (you can take a look at the formulas here). However, though I’ve looked at the statistic for rookies from the 2006 class as a means of comparison and see reasonable results, Little is not a player that ranks very well on this metric.

I think the Kelly – Little comparison is a nice example of the two different types of breakout players, and maybe even which is more desirable. Kelly is the type of player that ranks quite well based on whichever version of the diamond rating you use and Little is a player who appears to have found the right fit on her third team in two years.

The Numbers

The best way to identify a diamond in the rough intuitively would be to look for players that are extremely efficient in limited minutes. Kelly fits that bill moreso than Little.

When Kelly is in the game, she makes things happen. As I described in my mid-season rookie rankings a few weeks ago, Kelly is among the tops among rookies in plus/minus and true shooting percentage. Even more impressive, Kelly led the league in true shooting percentage as of July 21, according to Kevin Pelton at the Storm Tracker blog. The way she puts up those statistics is even more impressive.

First, her true shooting percentage is so high because she is a very good free throw shooter, at 84% for the year. She also ranks number one in free throw attempts per 40 minutes (which is significant and I’ll come back to it later). And most impressive about Kelly is that her production leads to winning – her boxscore 1.51, which means even as a rookie playing 15.2 minutes per game, she’s able to make a contribution to the team’s success. There aren’t many other non-starters who can claim the total package she brings to the game.

At this point scoring is her forte – she ranks 10th among rookies in rebounding with 3.3/game, which isn’t spectacular (guards Alexis Hornbuckle and Candice Wiggins rank ahead of her). Not every rookie post player is going to be a Fowles, Parker, or Anosike, so it’s understandable that Little is not yet a great defender.

There’s nothing particularly spectacular about Camille Little’s statistics except that she has managed to nearly double her productivity across almost every statistic with twice as many minutes as a starter. Considering we should expect efficiency/productivity to go down with increased minutes, the fact that all her numbers have increased is impressive.

But the statistics only tell half of the story for these players. It’s the way they put up these numbers that’s impressive.

Good basketball instincts lead to productivity

The key element of both of their games is good instincts. However, they each display those instincts in different ways.

Little’s increased productivity seems to illustrate a good fit with the Storm’s system. She knows how to play within that system and make an impact. She’s shown the ability to score all over the court, but is especially adept at scoring off of cuts to the basket. The most important thing is that she’s decisive with the ball – when she gets it, she looks to do something with it quickly and that allows her to be effective even when she’s not in the game very long.

In contrast, Kelly often seems to float around on offense as though she doesn’t quite know where she wants to go. But she flourishes when she improvises. She recognizes opportunities to contribute extremely well. Once she recognizes the opportunity, she knows how to take advantage whether that be off of a cut to the middle or establishing position in the post.

The big difference between Kelly and Little is that Kelly is a bit bigger and gets to the free throw line like a veteran. It’s not so much that she uses a whole lot of advanced moves down low, but she is just a physical player who looks to initiate contact once she gets the ball. The fact that she knows how to get herself to the free throw line without an intimate familiarity with the plays or the array of post moves that teammate Rebekkah Brunson has means that she’ll only be more effective once she has time to develop.

Another thing that might not stand out at first about Kelly is that she has quick hands. She had two steals recorded last night against the Storm and I noted an additional one. She got them just by being in the passing lanes or sticking her hand in the way of a ball handler’s dribble. That won’t make her dominant, but it is indicative of a defensive awareness that many normal rookies don’t have.

What both do well is play with energy, especially Kelly. She doesn’t seem to stop until the play is completely dead. And when you’re a bench player who gets limited minutes, that’s a huge asset to the team because it allows them to trust you during important stretches of a game. Kelly is a fighter down low who doesn’t back down and she has some good role models in Sacramento to help her develop.

Being in the right place at the right time

Neither Kelly nor Little are players that are going to dazzle you with their ability to create points off the dribble or put 5 seconds worth of moves on a defender. But what they specialize in is being in the right spot at the right time.

What separates them is that Kelly produces the hard way – she makes a lot of hustle plays on both ends of the court, just finding her way to the ball when she finds the right opportunity. That she’s able to score at all when she just seems to float around on offense is equally impressive – it shows that she knows how to get things done even if she’s not well integrated into the team’s game plan.

What both players illustrate is that diamonds in the rough are hard to pick out without painting the whole picture. The questions I still have are why did Little not perform better in San Antonio or Atlanta (her PADR scores are negative for both)? What is it about the Storm’s system that allows her to thrive in Jackson’s absence? These questions are the type that are hard to answer statistically – Little’s improved performance could be due to better chemistry with the team, better relationship with the coaching staff, or similarity to an offense she’s known in the past. It’s hard to know.

It will be fun to see what players like Kelly and Little do after the Olympic break and whether they can show flashes of the future as their teams aim for the playoffs.


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