Toliver Helps Sky to Victory: "Sometimes as a Young Player All You Want is a Chance."

After hitting a free throw with 7:11 left in the fourth quarter to increase her career high scoring to 24, Chicago Sky rookie point guard Kristi Toliver stood at the free throw line with a huge grin.

It was hard to say what exactly she was grinning at because it looked like she was grinning in response to someone off camera.

So let me recklessly read into her grin a little: it had to be a relief to play so well after recording a DNP-CD in Los Angeles against the Sparks.

Toliver finished the game with a career-high 25 points, going 5-8 from the three point line, and played a key role in a huge 21-4 run that propelled the Sky to a 96-77 victory over the New York Liberty.

In a way, I suppose you could say it was a "boring" 25 points. As the commentators discussed entering the fourth quarter, a number of those shots were literally loose balls falling into her hands and her shooting almost indiscriminately over the outstretched arms of defenders.

But even in seeming like one of the most accidental 25 point performances the league has seen, her shot is just so beautiful. Her shot looks almost effortless and has an almost perfect arc before falling softly through the net. Dare I say she has one of the prettiest jump shots in the WNBA?

During the third quarter, as New York Liberty rookie post player Kia Vaughn was on a roll on her way to her own career-high 12 points, Mary Murphy said, "Sometimes as a young player all you want is a chance." And really, the statement seems to apply more directly Toliver than Vaughn, who has not had as many explosive performances during her rookie campaign.

It's hard not to wonder sometimes if Kristi Toliver has truly gotten a chance to have the rookie season people expected of her when she was drafted #3 in the 2009 WNBA draft. Of course there might be reasons for that which are beyond the reach of us outside observers.

But the strange thing is that aside from a turnover problem that's no longer any worse than her rookie point guard counterparts who are receiving a lot more playing time, Toliver has performed well in spurts when she enters the game. In fact, she has arguably outperformed teammates who take her time.

If the Sky had firmly secured a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference or at the very least shown consistent play this season, perhaps this would be a non-issue. However, as things stand now, it's difficult to make sense of the situation in Chicago.

Talent-wise, there's no reason Chicago should not be a playoff team. The fact that they're not should raise questions. If everyone who watches the team is perpetually wondering what the *bleep* are they doing?, then perhaps there's reason to believe things aren't quite right.

I would have remained silent on the Sky because...well...they defy explanation moreso than any team I've watched this season. It's not like the Sacramento Monarchs who are aging and injured or the Liberty who seem to be a poorly constructed and managed team. This team has too much talent to not be in a better position.

And Candace Dupree's comments to the media the other day don't exactly help assuage doubts

"I just feel like people have no motivation, Dupree said. "This is the first time in franchise history we could potentially make the playoffs and I don't feel like everybody plays like that every night. We've got to pick it up."

Doesn't that sound like a red flag that something really is not quite right with this team?

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Heads Whalen Wins, Tails Liberty Lose

Good teams – playoff teams – are supposed to beat cellar dwellers at home.

So I really want to give the Liberty a pass for losing 74-69 on the road to the Connecticut Sun last night.

And ultimately, you can’t – the Liberty threw away a much needed victory and crept a little bit closer to securing that bottom spot in the East.

Even sadder, is that the collapse was almost predictable.

I’m not sure if the Liberty lack talent or lack motivation…but they really don’t seem to care. I’m not even sure you could say they panicked once the Sun started their comeback…it literally looked like they weren’t interested in the outcome.

Body language, facial expressions, hustle…it just wasn’t there..

Instead, they chose to settle for jump shot out of jump shot, slowly shooting themselves out of the game.

It was almost as though they were officially waving the white flag in preparation of heading to an early vacation.

Rebecca at Game Notes of Dooooooom recently compared the Liberty to a waterbug or a giant flying roach – they move from arbitrary action to an untimely death. And that’s sort of what happened, but not entirely.

They decided to just throw the game during the third quarter this time and then had a small burst of life in the fourth, when Connecticut Sun point guard Lindsay Whalen decided to stomped out all remaining signs of life by driving to the basket treating the Liberty like lesser forms of basketball life.

Or as Whalen said in her post game interview, just playing basketball.

Whalen is an amazing point guard by any standard. People compare her to Seattle Storm guard Sue Bird and I ranked San Antonio Silver Star point guard Becky Hammon above her, but Whalen is unparalleled in the point guard universe.

A knowledgeable fan emailed and suggest a better NBA comparison than Deron Williams would be Jason Kidd, but then Whalen is a better shooter than Kidd hands down (in fact, I recall telling my high school junior varsity basketball coach that I was a better shooter than Kidd, who was hands down the best high school player I’ve ever watched in the Bay Area… but I did shoot 40% from 3 point range on varsity. Take that!)

Whalen can do just about anything you want a basketball player to do for a team. And last night, she did that to the point of carrying a team to victory without her all-star forward. And when I say carried, having watched the game or looked at the box score, can you really say that anyone else significantly helped Whalen during the game?

Forward Kerri Gardin had a good defensive game, recording 4 blocks and 2 steals and guard Tan White had a solid game with 8 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists…but this is one of the few cases in team sports where the game was won on the strength of one player’s performance when it counted most. And that’s impressive.

Of course, the Liberty did everything in their power to help the Connecticut Sun during the third quarter – shooting 27.8% and allowing your opponents to shoot 60% is an excellent way to blow a lead on the road.

But credit Whalen for being the ultimate point guard in this game – leading the team on the court, making teammates better, and doing the little things that allowed her team to win.

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WNBA Midseason Awards & Review: Liberty Struggling…and Anosike for MVP?

Late in the fourth quarter of the New York Liberty’s loss to the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday, I heard a little song on the web cast that I assume was also played in the arena.

The line that grabbed my attention was one that seemed to perfectly capture why I liked the Liberty so much last year.

Our team is built to win. Everybody pitches in. The Liberty – United We Play.

If you read this blog last year, you may remember that the Liberty were an early favorite of mine. Leilani Mitchell’s amazingly efficient point guard play caught my eye, I vaguely recalled Janel McCarville from her NCAA tournament run with Lindsay Whalen at the University of Minnesota, and they appeared to be a well-rounded team. But most of all, I liked the fact that they seemed to play so well as a unit. An excerpt from something I wrote last year:

It’s the intangibles, the little things that won’t show up in the box score and are difficult to describe. They’re tough and they play with heart. Their seemingly endless rotation allows them to play with great energy (usually). Of all the teams in the WNBA, they seem to have the strongest collective personality.

But what I like most about them is that they seem to have a nothing-to-lose swagger. Not much was expected of them at the beginning of the season – while they were expected to make the playoffs, nobody really expected them to make much noise in the playoffs. So in a way, they are the WNBA’s consummate underdog.

Watching them on Sunday, I couldn’t believe that I was even watching essentially the same team.

It’s not that they played terribly on Sunday…they just didn’t play particularly well. And to stick with the theme, it didn’t really look like they’re playing very united this year.

So what’s wrong?

I compared their Four Factors numbers for this year and last year. Contrary to what I might have thought, their assisted field goal percentage is not that much different than what they ended with and they have about the same relative position (7th) as they did last year.

However, the one number that really stood out was their offensive rebounding percentage. It is way down from last year. But I’ll spare you the esoteric numbers and just go with what’s listed at WNBA.com – the Liberty are currently last in the WNBA in rebounding differential with a differential of -5.81 per game. At the end of last year, they were at -2.1, which is not much better, but wasn’t exactly league worst.

The other number that stood out was free throw rate, which is the rate at which they get to the free throw line. This number is partially an estimate of a team’s aggressiveness as the theory goes that getting to the foul line often probably means that you’re putting enough pressure on the defense to draw fouls.

Although the Liberty are shooting very well from the free throw line at 81%, their free throw rate is second to last in the league (the LA Sparks are the worst). That’s down from last year when they were just below average.

Even more interesting is that most of their opponents’ numbers are about the same or slightly worse, meaning that the problem seems to be that their performance has dropped off rather than the opponents’ play improving. And the numbers that have fallen – offensive rebounding and free throw rate – seem indicative of a lack of energy and aggressiveness rather than some sort of slump.

So the question for the Liberty in the second half is simple: can they find that energy that made them successful last season?

If they can, there is still time for them to leap frog erratic Atlanta Dream and Chicago Sky teams as the Liberty are only 1 game out. But moreso than any other team, it seems like the Liberty will require a shift in mindset rather than a performance upgrade to make a playoff run.

What’s funny is that during last season’s playoffs I was hoping for a Liberty-LA Sparks finals, especially given the amazing game those two teams had on July 25, 2008 in Madison Square Garden. Almost exactly a year later, both teams are fighting for playoff spots. And the sad part is that – as I described yesterday -- with Sparks forward Candace Parker getting better by the game and center Lisa Leslie returning from injury, the Sparks might in fact have more reason to hope for a turnaround that the Liberty…

Anyway, more to come about teams as I watch games over the next week…for now, I turn to players and hand out some mid-season awards: Defensive Player of the Year, Most Outstanding Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Woman of the Year and MVP, what I consider the easiest to hardest right now. Most Improved Player just has way too many candidates to choose one.

Defensive Player of the Year candidates: Nicky Anosike…Tamika Catchings, Alana Beard, Jia Perkins, Sancho Lyttle.

I would like someone to present me with an argument for someone other than Nicky Anosike to win the DPOY for their performance thus far this season. Any defensive statistics you look at make the argument clear that it’s not worth looking at. But I heard something during the All-Star game broadcast that sort of summarizes what makes her the clear favorite for DPOY: “She’s a center and she’s leading the league in steals.”

That’s unheard of in basketball.

She is one of the most dominant defensive players I’ve ever watched. And what makes her so dominant is that she can do the dirty work in the paint but then step out to the perimeter, guard guards, and take the ball from them too. It’s quite remarkable. She’s a defensive weapon almost unparalleled in the basketball world.

If you think I’m exaggerating, watch her and try to prove otherwise…but she’s having an amazing defensive season.

Winner: Anosike

Most Outstanding Player candidates: Nicky Anosike, Becky Hammon, Cappie Pondexter, Diana Taurasi

Notice that I’m dividing MOP and MVP…because I think MVP is a lot less clear. But so far, the most outstanding player, no matter how you want to slice it, is Cappie Pondexter. This one is not nearly as clear cut as Anosike for DPOY…and in fact both Anosike and Diana Taurasi both have legitimate claims on this (fictitious) honor. But I’ve said it a number of times – Pondexter’s transformation from a pure scorer into an all-around player who can both score and make teammates better has been fascinating to watch.

She’s a triple-double threat every night at this point and plays solid defense on a team not normally noted for its defense. She’s made herself almost impossible to defend because even on an off night, she’s demonstrated the ability to take over the game with her playmaking ability. It’s hard to imagine Phoenix having the type of success they’ve experienced without Pondexter’s contribution.

Anosike’s defensive ability makes her a clear candidate for this honor and Diana Taurasi’s typically outstanding play makes her a strong candidate as well. Becky Hammon is also a candidate here as she has put up very impressive numbers after missing some games early in the season to play with the Russian National Team.

Winner: Pondexter

Rookie of the Year candidates: DeWanna Bonnner, Angel McCoughtry, Renee Montgomery, Kristi Toliver, Shavonte Zellous
For rookie of the year, I went through the same statistical process I went through when I last posted rookie rankings two weeks ago on July 14th. The process was essentially designed to answer the question of what we can expect a player to contribute to the team with the ball in their hands, adding some nuance to the standard points per game standard of assessment.

And there’s really no difference in the outcome since that point: DeWanna Bonner is clearly the top rookie thus far, still ranking among the top players in the league in usage rate (how often they attempt to make plays), Chaiken Efficiency Ratio (the ratio of scoring plays they make to non-scoring plays), and Boxscores (how much they contribute to team winning). Meanwhile, she is almost indisputably the most productive player of any rookie thus far.

But Angel McCoughtry is still right on her heels and if she can turn it around she might give Bonner a challenge. I still believe she is probably the most talented player in this rookie class, she just needs time to develop and refine her skills. However, at this point in the season, McCoughtry is the only other rookie to rank in the top tier of the league in the three aforementioned statistical categories and also brings passing ability. What will make her a tough sell, even if she does improve her performance, is that she is still a below average rebounder for a forward. But who knows – if Bonner hits a rookie wall and McCoughtry improves, McCoughtry could win this contest.

The only major change is that Shavonte Zellous has probably moved firmly into third place for ROY. She is still being carried by her amazing free throw rate, but her defensive ability doesn’t exactly hurt – she might be the best defensive rookie guard. Renee Montgomery remains interesting to watch having earned a starting spot and Kristi Toliver is slowly becoming a more efficient player. And statistically, Courtney Paris is making herself relevant, but not yet in the mix for ROY.

Winner: Bonner

Sixth Woman of the Year candidates: DeWanna Bonner, Roneeka Hodges, Angel McCoughtry, Noelle Quinn, Tan White

Whereas Candace Parker took home both ROY and MVP last year, DeWanna Bonner could very well win ROY and Sixth Woman of the Year this year. In fact, Bonner is probably more clearly sixth woman of the year than ROY.

Put simply, Bonner is outplaying most starters this season – as I previously described, she’s one of the few players to rank in the top tier in Boxcores, usage rate, and efficiency ratio. That means you know when she comes off the bench, she’s going to contribute.

The runners-up really are not close, but have all contributed directly to their team’s success off the bench in some way – Tan White and Roneeka Hodges with scoring, Noelle Quinn by scoring and occasionally running the Sparks’ offense, and Angel McCoughtry has a very good all-around game that has made her an important piece to the Atlanta Dream’s bench. But like I said…making an argument for anyone besides Bonner is a real stretch.

Winner: Bonner

Most Valuable Player candidates: Anosike, Catchings, Shameeka Christon, Hammon, Lauren Jackson, Jia Perkins, Pondexter, Taurasi

MVP is going to be a tough one this year and will likely depend upon whether someone is able to carry their team to the playoffs in the second half of the season.

Fundamentally, I think the MVP is not only the player who contributes the most to her team, but also the player who contributes the most with the least help, thus making them most valuable. In other words, the player whose team can least afford to go without them. When you take the MVP away from their team, the team’s likelihood to win games should decrease considerably.

This is of course my belief about how the award should be given rather than the way I think it’s actually voted upon…but here are the five criteria I use to assess a player’s MVP worthiness.

1. As an individual award, I don’t believe that the relative quality of one’s team should decide the MVP award – logically, the best player on the best team might not be the most valuable…it might have just been a very good team. So I’m judging based on the player’s individual contribution to their team.

2. It’s also quite possible that the best player in the league is not the most valuable in the league. Theoretically, a player who is not even considered All-WNBA caliber could be the most valuable to her team if she is single-handedly carrying the team to whatever wins they get. This is why I selected my Most Outstanding Player above – two different awards.

3. The Superstar Teammate principle: I will still find it difficult to argue that a player who is playing next to a superstar teammate could possibly be the most valuable in the league. If the best two players in the league are playing together how can one of them possibly be the most valuable to their team in the league? Chances are if the team was missing one of them – for say a two-game suspension – the other star would step up and help the team win. It’s unfair to the players because one of them might be more valuable in ways that we fans cannot perceive…but if you do make the argument, what would you use to defend it aside from the criteria for MOP?

4. The player should be someone who you want with the ball in their hands at the end of a game or who can at least be expected to be used as a convincing decoy. The player doesn’t necessarily have to be able to score, but when they have the ball, you should expect a MVP to make plays. The same argument could be used to justify voting a strong defensive player MVP, it’s just not as convenient to measure as the points per game that people normally use.

5. When the player is on the court, they should make their team better somehow, not worse. This is obviously leading to an argument for the use of plus/minus in MVP analysis and I acknowledge it’s an imperfect statistic. But if you look at the players who have a negative plus/minus rating, I think it’s reasonable to say a MVP should be on the plus side of the equation.

So these five criteria will be applied to the players who made the 2009 All-Star team – you have to figure that a player who did not make the All-Star team is probably not their team’s MVP.

The candidates above represent two things: the players with the top five Boxscores in the WNBA (in order: Taurasi, Pondexter, Anosike, Catchings, and Jackson) in addition to three other players who are carrying a significant amount of the load for their team’s this season (Christon, Hammon, and Perkins).

To start, the eight players chosen are also the players who have contributed the most value to their teams this season based on David Sparks’ val pct metric:

Anosike: 26.3%
Christon: 25.6%
Perkins: 23.7%
Hammon: 23.1%
Jackson: 22.8%
Catchings: 21.8%
Taurasi: 21.1%
Pondexter: 20.4%

So what makes Taurasi and Pondexter absolutely remarkable as players is that they are among the most productive players in the league and have managed to divide the burden to help the Mercury almost equally between them (note: they might not actually even be the top duo in the league this season – Hammon and Sophia Young have combined for 43.1% of their team’s statistical production).

All Boxscores does is take that percentage of the team’s statistical production and applies it directly to the number of wins the team has for the season. So essentially, Boxscores is a metric that measures the player’s statistical contribution in terms of wins. Here are those numbers:

1. Taurasi: 2.74
2. Pondexter: 2.65
3. Anosike: 2.63
4. Catchings: 2.61
5. Jackson: 2.51
6. (Tanisha Wright: 2.01)
7. (Katie Douglas: 1.93)
8. Perkins: 1.89
9. (Charde Houston: 1.87)
10. (Tammy Sutton-Brown: 1.87)
19. Hammon: 1.61
24. Christon: 1.53

So what we have now is the player who is responsible the largest percentage of their team’s statistical production (Anosike) and the player whose production has contributed the most wins (Taurasi). But to further reinforce the point about the player whose team can least afford to lose them, let’s go one step further and look at who has done the most with the least help from a teammate (the teammate’s Boxscore is in parentheses).

Anosike: +.76 (Houston: 1.87)
Catchings: +.68 (Douglas: 1.93)
Christon: +.52 (Janel McCarville 1.01)
Jackson: +.50 (Wright: 2.01)
Perkins: +.31 (Candice Dupree: 1.58)
Hammon: +.20 (Young: 1.41)
Taurasi: +.09 (Pondexter: 2.65)
Pondexter: -.09 (Taurasi: 2.74)

So obviously the players are only separated by fractions of a win – there’s no way a decision could be made based on these numbers alone. Nevertheless, it becomes an interesting way to look at the players relative to each other. Anosike has probably done the most in the league relative to her teammates -- even though Charde Houston is also an All-Star, Anosike’s performance has been a clear step above hers.

Christon is also an interesting case – although nobody would put her in the conversation for MOP, she is clearly contributing a lot to her team’s ability to win. Meanwhile Taurasi and Pondexter are almost playing each other even, making it extremely difficult to make a clear argument for one being more valuable than the other to the Mercury, much less in comparison to other team leaders.

So perhaps more is needed…

If we look at usage rates – the number of offensive plays the player is individually responsible for – Anosike is the only player in this eight who doesn’t rank in the top 50 of the league. However, in terms of defensive plays, there is no player who makes more of those in the league, so it doesn’t necessarily exclude Anosike from the discussion. But here are those numbers:

Hammon: 28.17
Taurasi: 26.329
Pondexter: 26.325
Jackson: 25.40
Perkins: 25.16
Catchings: 23.82
Christon: 21.94
Anosike: 20.28

And I have yet to find an overall productivity metric that doesn’t have Taurasi #1 and Anosike #2 (MEV, EFF, Tendex). Kevin Pelton’s WARP rating has Anosike #1 and Taurasi #2. So perhaps plus minus number can provide some insight…? Here they are:

Anosike: +20.5
Jackson: +14.4
Perkins: +12.7
Christon: +12.4
Catchings: +11.9
Pondexter: +9.4
Hammon: +8.7
Taurasi: +5.1

This is interesting when compared to the previous usage numbers – Anosike has the 4th best plus/minus rating in the league but doesn’t have the ball in her hands to make plays as often as Taurasi. Taurasi has the ball in her hands and is relied upon to make plays as a ball handler and thus has a much lower plus/minus.

But for me it looks like it’s between Taurasi and Anosike for the MVP. And yes, I acknowledge that Pondexter should still remain in the conversation as a third option who is really almost even with Taurasi. But really it comes down to a potent offensive player vs. a potent defensive player.

So how do you choose?

Looking at any further statistics (rebounding, passing, shooting efficiency) would be so position specific that it would be difficult to gain any clarity.

If it truly came down to Anosike, Pondexter, and Taurasi, I think it’s fair to say Taurasi would win a vote on star power alone, despite the DUI controversy. By the end of the season that will be forgotten if she continues producing wins.

However, here’s the way I’m going to think about it – the one knock against Anosike is her usage rate and that she’s not a player who can create a lot offensively. So you might think that her offensive weaknesses would hurt her overall production as a player, especially since there really is no good metric for defense. And yet despite the obvious “weakness”, she’s right behind Taurasi in any metric you look at as the second most productive player in the league.

So if you consider that with the fact that Anosike is indisputably the best defensive player in the league, it’s hard not to select her as MVP. And just in case you feel adamant about her offensive ineptitude, perhaps you should watch her – I don’t know whether it’s Jennifer Gillom or just a natural progression as a young player, but she is a vastly improved offensive player from last year, displaying an array of moves from both the post and the perimeter. In other words, if Anosike won the award, it would not be solely as a defensive player. It would be as arguably the best post player in the WNBA right now.

Of course, it’s only mid-season – all of this could change by the end and Taurasi or Pondexter could emerge as the clear candidates for MVP. But at mid-season let’s put it to the test – can you imagine the Minnesota Lynx winning even 10 games without Anosike?

Personally, I can’t.

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“At Last”: Opening Day Preview

Finally.

By some strange coincidence, every single WNBA pre-season game was during a meeting, class, or the NBA playoffs (and I think I overslept a morning one or two). So aside from the Storm game that I went to, I have to confess that I have not seen enough of the WNBA pre-season to give a full preview.

But hey, that didn’t exactly stop a few major national publications from writing something…so why shouldn’t I?

So instead of the typical season preview that either does the impossible and predicts the outcomes or gives a roster analysis, I thought I would present a few themes that I intend to follow throughout the season.

A first will probably come as no surprise if you followed this blog last season: the role of the point guard.

I was talking to some folks the other day about how some people were claiming that last year in the NBA was the “Year of the Point Guard”, that point guards like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Rajon Rondo were emerging to dominate the league.

Then of course, when you look at this year’s NBA playoffs, of the four teams that made the semifinals, only one (Denver) had an established point guard (Mo Williams is solid but not quite “established” yet). So the point guard match-ups in the Finals are as follows: Derek Fisher, Tony Farmar, and Shannon Brown vs. Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson (still recovering from injury), and Anthony Johnson?

Does it look to you that point guards are the key to these teams? On the surface, not really…but that’s where I took the argument a bit further.

My whole point about the point guard is that it’s a position about decision making and goodness of fit. Successful teams don’t absolutely need a superstar point guard capable of completely dominating a game (e.g. Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups). They need a style of point guard that both defines and fits what they want to do.

The decision making framework becomes a particularly relevant point once you reach the second tier of point guards – does your point guard know when to push the ball and when to slow it down? Do they know when to drive or when to shoot? Do they know when to take the ball and swing it or reset the offense? Can they make an eff-ing entry pass?

All of these things sound super simple, right? Yeah, but some people simply don’t have it even though they have all the physical tools in the world.

What we have seen from the point guards playing in the Finals is solid decision making frm…even if that means pass to Kobe and clear. Derek Fisher’s style of play – as much as I despise him for his performance with and against the Warriors – is a great fit for the Lakers because he generally makes good decisions (as in limiting turnovers). Farmar is nice as a change of pace to pick up the tempo with the second unit, which has been extremely effective at times. Rafer Alston is perfect for the Magic because he can penetrate and find open shooters.

It seems likely that we will see a similar pattern in the WNBA this year – the best point guards in the league (Sue Bird & Lindsay Whalen) might be at home watching the conference finals. But I would argue that the point guard play of this year’s pre-season front-runner (the Sparks) will be huge.

And there will be a few teams whose playoff hopes might be riding on the play of a rookie point guard by the end of the season – there were three point guards taken in the first six picks of the draft and by the end of the season, all three could be starters.

So with that, my top five players and teams to watch as the season begins.

Top 5 Players to Watch

5. Lifelock’s Diana Taurasi: Always interesting to watch and will have quite a burden trying to get her team to the playoffs. Having Lauren Jackson would have been nice, but she showed last year that she can take a team to the brink of the playoffs almost by herself. When you look around at the Western Conference, it will be tough to make the playoffs…and if the Mercury want it, Taurasi will have to have an amazing season. I think she can do it.

4. Kristi Toliver, Renee Montgomery, and Briann January: All three of these point guards could be starting by mid-season depending on how the veterans around them play and how they fit into their respective systems. And I think following the progression of rookie point guards is fascinating. January has already been announced the starter of her team, Toliver has a good chance to challenge Chicago’s shooting guards filling the point guard spot, and Montgomery will have to work. But this will be interesting to watch – by the end of the season, who will be the best point guard in the 2009 draft?

3. Sylvia Fowles: the main storyline this season will probably be Lisa Leslie retiring and passing the torch to Candace Parker. But I see it slightly differently – the torch in terms of WNBA post play is being passed to Fowles. And she’s more than ready. The big question will be how the Sky use her. Last year, it just seemed like she was not incorporated into the offense very well. This year having demonstrated what she can do both in Europe and the Olympics, it seems unfathomable that she would not be the focal point of this team. No pressure, Coach Key.

2. Lindsay Whalen: This might seem like an odd pick, but she just seems like the eternal underdog. The GMs selected Sue Bird as the best point guard in the league in something of a landslide, which makes me wonder, what does Lindsay Whalen have to do to establish herself as the best? Well, winning a championship would be nice, but it seems unlikely this year. Some of their young players will have a year more under their belts though which could give Whalen more support so they don’t go through another 8 game slump like last year. But ultimately the Sun’s chances will boil down to Whalen. And if they do well, might she be anointed the top point guard in the league next year?

1. Candace Parker: Duh. That was easy. Coming back off her MVP season and off-season pregnancy, can she get her first championship?

Top 5 Teams to Watch

5. Diana Taurasi’s Lifelock (aka Phoenix Mercury): I love Diana Taurasi…and really, how can you not? She all about helping the children stay healthy and everything. But seriously – and no disrespect to Cappie Pondexter – the Mercury will live or die based on Taurasi’s performance this season. And if this Mercury team somehow gets to the playoffs – as 50% of WNBA GMs predicted – she is hands down the 2009 WNBA MVP. How 50% of GMs predicted the Mercury making the playoffs and only one predicted Taurasi winning the MVP is actually baffling to me.

4. New York Liberty: OK, ok… yes, I just really like Leilani Mitchel as a point guard. But that’s not really the point. The question for the Liberty is whether they can take that next step and return to the WNBA finals…which ultimately comes down to a question of whether they can take down Detroit.

3. Sacramento Monarchs: This is my dark horse team of the 2009 season. I’ve seen some people write this team off but as usual, this frontcourt is absolutely loaded. And when this team is clicking on all cylinders, they will be extremely difficult to stop. They have added Courtney Paris – who I think will be a force on the boards – and have a constantly improving Crystal Kelly to make up a potentially dominant frontcourt of the future. They have also added Hamchetou Maiga-Ba who should be able to just adds another veteran presence. This is a team with the capacity to challenge the top teams in the Western Conference while simultaneously having a bright future. And that’s always fascinating to watch. And I will never ever…evaevaevaevaeva count out Ticha Penicheiro…ok?

2. Chicago Sky: I just love the Sky. I love the combination of talent they have: two great post players, an outstanding all-around perimeter player in Jia Perkins, and Armintie Price who is just one of the league’s great personalities. Not that personalities win games…but it makes it even more fun to root for (or in the case of Kobe Bryant, against). I have gone on and on about them in the past, so I spare you here. But I’m really really interested in seeing how Kristi Toliver fits into this team. She could easily take the starting spot by mid-season.

1. LA Sparks: the Sparks have put together one of those fantasy teams that almost try to shape destiny by bringing together a group of players that just seems unstoppable…you know, if they all play the way they’re supposed to and actually come together to work as a team. It’s almost as with these squads are supposed to overwhelm you with star power before you even step on the court.

And as we saw last year with the Storm, this doesn’t always work…

In the NBA, the 2000 Portland Trailblazers and the 2004 LA Lakers immediately come to mind. Really, they had two different problems – the Blazers were just loaded top to bottom whereas the Lakers had four Hall of Famers and little depth. What’s interesting is that in this year’s WNBA just as in the NBA in 2004, it could be a gritty Detroit team that was assembled for a particular style of play that topples the fantasy team.

But in addition to trying to bring this talent and mold them into a team, there will be the additional adjustment once Candace Parker comes back to the team. So they will have to do a double adjustment this season…and that doesn’t sound easy in the WNBA’s short regular season. The key will be to see where they’re at near the end of the season. And you have to wonder how that will influence home court advantage in the Western Conference.

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Here's hoping for a Sparks-Liberty Finals

Unfortunately, life has gotten in the way of me writing and I've been unable to pay attention to the WNBA playoffs as much as I'd like.

But I have to just stop for a moment and say that I'm hoping for a Liberty-Sparks finals. The reason is simple: I've really enjoyed their two matchups this season.

This is not to disregard the chances of the Silver Stars or Shock, both very good teams and deserving of a trip to the finals by virtue of outstanding regular season performances. But thinking about the Sparks trying to contain Leilani Mitchell in the open court again and the Liberty trying to contain Candace Parker is exciting to me. I could see it being a tight series with each team fighting to establish their style.

Speaking of the rookies, how about the play of rookies this post-season? Obviously Parker, but Essence Carson and Crystal Kelly in the first round. Rookies are not just "stepping up" but they're leading their teams to victory. Putting the future of the league on center stage is yet another reason to hope for a Liberty-Sparks final...

Yeah, I know I'm getting ahead of myself a bit, but hopefully by Finals time things will have settled down a bit in my life and I'll be able to actually pay closer attention.

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Any Ideas On What Happened to the Sun?

I actually missed the Sun-Liberty game yesterday...but apparently I didn't miss much.

This description from Mike DiMauro of The Day makes the game seem horrific...

The Sun's loss to New York inside The Big Room on 33rd and 7th was well deserved. No team that treats the ball like a live explosive, especially 35 games into a season, should be leading a playoff series.

Their offense was disheveled. They did not honor basketball's No. 1 rule: treasure possession of the ball. There was enough one-on-one offense to qualify for the schoolyard. Terrible shots. Worse shots than that. Forced shots with the shot clock in single digits. Passes to nowhere. Not nearly enough ball movement.

You wonder how. How does a team that looked so good two weeks ago, a team Seattle coach Brian's Agler and San Antonio coach Dan Hughes raved about recently, look so putrid?

Ouch.

The thing is, this seems reminiscent of their losing streak earlier in the season when they just didn't seem to have it together.

For the sake of a competitive opening round series, I hope they get it together. For the sake of the Liberty's chances, I'm kinda hoping they remain stuck in first gear...

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What Does the Future Hold For the Sky?

The Sky entered last night's game against the Liberty with not much to play for beyond pride and perhaps the opportunity to build some confidence for the future.

Unfortunately, they ran into an inspired Liberty team who wanted to build some momentum for the playoffs, even without injured players Janel McCarville and Tiffany Jackson. Sure they already knew that they'd be facing the Connecticut Sun in the first round of the playoffs, but no team wants to "stumble into" the playoffs. From Pay Coyle in the AP article:

"That was playoff-atmosphere basketball," Coyle said. "We want to get rolling and I thought that was a good start."

But this has to be a disappointing loss for the Sky.

The Sky had already beaten the Liberty once since the Olympic break. One would think Candice Dupree and Sylvia Fowles would have a strong game against the depleted front court of the Liberty. And although the game doesn't mean very much for the playoffs, it was an opportunity to win a series against a playoff team, which could be a nice confidence boost for next season.

But unfortunately, things fell apart during a 14-2 run at the end of the third quarter when the Liberty took control of the game. And unlike their 4th quarter collapse against the Storm, it wasn't the bench that let the game slip away. It was mostly starters. So what, if anything, does this say about the Sky for next season?

Still having problems in the half court

The momentum in the game shifted with about four minutes left in the third once the Liberty switched to zone and Shameeka Christon and Leilani Mitchell started wreaking havoc on the perimeter causing three straight turnovers.

But the primary reason for the shift was something that has been a problem for the Sky all season -- they have these dry spells, as the commentators said coach Steven Key describes them. But this wasn't just one of their dry shooting spells...the Sky just seemed to stop moving. And when you stop moving against a zone, it becomes much easier to defend because one defender is able to guard 2 players in an area without moving. The result is frustration and then confusion.

Some of the stagnation comes when Fowles is playing on the high post. She doesn't yet look comfortable making decisions in their offense and it just results in turnovers. One of the turnovers came on an attempt to make an entry pass to Fowles that Fowles just didn't step to.

But the main reason is that when the Sky face a zone and cannot get penetration from their guards, it becomes obvious that they don't yet have a well-defined post offense despite having one of the best young post combinations in the league. So rather than moving the ball and trying to find spaces in the zone to get the ball to their post players, they end up holding the ball around the perimeter and making predictable passes. The Sky somehow need to find an identity beyond the perimeter.

Still a perimeter oriented team

The Sky's brief spurt in the fourth quarter with about 3:30 left starting with Armintie Price's drive and missed free throw which was rebounded by Jia Perkins exemplified their strength this season. They are at their best when they get into that dribble drive set, get players moving toward the basket, and score in transition.

The problem is that when they get so focused on the perimeter game, their dynamic duo in the post becomes an afterthought...almost glorified rebounders rather than offensive threats. And yet we know what Dupree and Fowles can do -- Fowles has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season and Dupree has been an all-star. Right now, their strengths just don't appear to be well integrated into their offense.

When a post player disappears as Fowles did in the fourth quarter, it's not really her fault. Sometimes, it's a matter of just not getting the ball. Fowles hardly touched the ball in scoring position at all in the fourth quarter. Ditto for Dupree. And it seems to be something they've struggled with all season -- finding a way to consistently feed the post rather than just waiting for post players to get loose balls or offensive rebounds.

All the pieces are there, it's just a matter of putting it all together

You have to figure that in the off-season, the Sky will put in more post plays and perhaps retool the roster to find players who can distribute the ball to post players more effectively. But with a lottery pick and a talented roster that has four threats offensively and some decent defensive players in Perkins and Fowles, they don't need to change a whole lot. They just need time to bring it all together.

Some Sky fans are calling for Steven Key to be fired, but that might be unfair after one season with a young team. It takes time to put Fowles' injury and absence during the Olympic break have to be taken into account when evaluating the Sky's season.

We also don't really know what's going on behind the scenes -- are the plays in place but the players not executing or are the players not executing because the plays aren't in place? Either way, time could be the primary remedy for the Sky's struggles.

I still believe the Sky have a bright future. There are plenty of examples in sports where extremely talented young teams take a few years to put it all together...and some never do before making major changes. But this team has at least four positions in their starting lineup pretty well set and just needs to add to the bench so they can give the starters a rest.

And once they fill out their roster, they can become much more dangerous. Missing the playoffs just gives them a chance to add more talent through the draft lottery and focus on their growth for the future. And perhaps it will make them more hungry for next year.

Relevant Links:

The Chicago Sky: My Choice for Team of the Future
http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/06/chicago-sky-my-choice-for-team-of.html

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Liberty's Big Win Still Shows Signs of Trouble

By most accounts around the web, the Liberty’s 90-87 overtime road win against the Comets last night was a great win coming off two tough losses.

WNBA.com labeled it an “instant classic” and a “magical moment”, coach Pay Coyle called it a great team win, and color commentator Mary Murphy called it a great moment for the franchise to “pull it together and end that losing streak.” And on the surface of it, it had all the makings of a great game.

There were outstanding individual performances from Janel McCarville and Lisa Willis – McCarville had a career and franchise-high 33 points as well as a career-high 4 blocks and Willis had a career-high 22 points. Olympian Tina Thompson had 34 points and rookie Matee Ajavon had 16 and four assists off the bench.

But as I watched the game, I had a distinctly different feeling about it. Maybe I just had higher expectations for the Liberty or something. But prior to the game, I could find no reason to believe that the Liberty would lose…unless they continued to play poorly.

So the fact that they blew a fourth quarter lead and needed overtime to beat the Comets who were missing two starters (Roneeka Hodges and Hamchetou Maiga-Ba) and a key reserve (Sancho Lyttle) just doesn’t strike me as impressive. Even on the road and without Shameeka Christon and Tiffany Jackson this was a must-win and really a should win against a banged up Comets team for the Liberty.

Against tougher competition and into the playoffs, I can’t help but think the Liberty still haven’t broken out of their Olympics-induced haze, with or without Christon. They are a team that has relied upon a methodical offense for most of the season with hard cuts and crisp passes. For some reason, they haven’t been able to establish that rhythm since the Olympic break.

If they expect to challenge for the top seed in the Eastern Conference or get past the first round of the playoffs, they’ll have to get back to the style that helped make them the hottest team in the league before the break. Here are a few of my observations.

Individual performances are no substitute for a strong collective effort

Janel McCarville had an outstanding game last night. Really, it was another one of those games that you’d want to show to someone who believes that women’s players can’t create their own offense. She scored from everywhere – outside, driving layups, and strong post moves. Plus she had at least four potential assists that were lost because her teammates missed the shots.

In other words, the Liberty’s entire offense revolved around one player and that’s a shift from what’s made them successful for the majority of the season. It’s not just about points scored, but how they scored the points. When they face stronger teams and stronger defenses, they’re going to need more than one or two players to have career scoring nights – they’re going to need to get everyone involved.

McCarville and Willis shot a combined 21-30 or 70% from the field last night. The rest of the team shot 14-41 or 34% from the field. In their losses to Chicago and Detroit they shot 39% and 38% respectively. In other words, they didn’t play well enough as a team to win games consistently. Two players carried them…and even then they needed overtime to win. It would be unrealistic to expect two players to shoot that well again, even if McCarville continues to draw contact and score from the free throw line.

Where is the defense?

In the five games before the break in which they went 4-1, I had the Liberty with a 96.87 defensive dynamics rating. In the last three games, their rating has been 124.72. To put those numbers in perspective, the consensus best defensive team in the league – the Indiana Fever – had a rating of 99.57 for the season before the break whereas the worst – the Atlanta Dream – had a rating of 124.16 before the break.

They’ve gone from being a very good defensive team, to a very bad one. Last night, the Comets actually had a better team dynamics rating (132.82) than the Liberty (102.65) despite losing. In fact, the Comets outplayed the Liberty for the last three quarters of the game. And again, this was a Comets team that was missing three key players.

In the third quarter when the Comets started their comeback, the Comets had a team dynamics rating of 250.33. The third quarter against the Shock was similar – a team dynamics rating of 218.03. So what’s going on?

The common thread in both situations was that the Liberty were not stopping their opponents’ synergy, meaning their opponents had a relatively easy time moving the ball and creating opportunities to score. The reason that didn’t show up in the score as much as it did in Detroit is because Houston didn’t play that well defensively either and New York managed to keep their turnover percentage down.

I believe I heard Mary Murphy mention during the broadcast that Tiffany Jackson is a major part of their “55 press” defense and so perhaps her absence is affecting their ability to defend. But in the third quarter, the Houston got whatever they want going to the paint. If the Comets weren’t scoring inside, they were getting fouled and they made the shots – they shot 9-10 from the free throw line in the third.

It would be one thing to defend the Liberty by saying they had one off game, but it’s appearing ing to develop into a trend. Jackson can’t be the only reason for these kind of defensive lapses though so it will be interesting to see if they can improve on this in upcoming games.

Penetration to the basket

Just as penetration helped the Comets mount a comeback in the 3rd quarter, the Liberty definitely play better when they are able to penetrate into the teeth of the defense. Normally they do that with good passing through the defense. Last night, it occurred with McCarville driving to the basket from the wing or the elbow. But their guards are getting very little penetration.

In fact, the Liberty’s guard play might explain why they’ve been struggling so much over the last few games. If the guards were able to drive and kick out to shooters, it might be easier for the team run the offense and find open shooters.

Right now, we’re seeing point guards Loree Moore and Leilani Mitchell play more of the initiator style of point guard – they get the ball across half court and pass it to just initiate the offense. They’re not really doing much to force the defense to shift out of their sets and create scoring opportunities.

An example of how well penetration works for them was at the end of the first quarter when Leilani Mitchell was in the game running point guard. Mitchell brought the ball down the court and passed to McCarville in the high post. McCarville then turned and drove and passed back to Mitchell. And since the defense was then off-balance as the Comets collapsed on McCarville, Mitchell was able to turn the corner and drive to the basket, finding McCarville again for a nice assist and the layup.

Inside, outside, and penetration works best for the Liberty and for whatever reason they haven’t been able to do enough of that since the Olympic break. Point guards are the ones who have to be active to make plays like that happen consistently.

Some people may argue that the problem is Loree Moore and that Mitchell should replace her in the starting lineup or at the very least get more minutes. It’s hard to say whether Mitchell is ready for starter minutes, but there’s a strong argument for her to get more minutes.

Does Mitchell deserve Moore minutes?

Over the last three games, neither has played very well in terms of their pure point rating – Moore has a rating of -1.06 while Mitchell has a rating of -3.22. In plain terms, neither of them is doing much to create opportunities for teammates. But considering that Mitchell had a league best 6.09 pure point rating in my point guard rankings before the break, it might be reasonable to assume that will more minutes, she could be more effective as a distributor.

But the really troubling statistic is their points per zero point possession numbers. I find this metric to be important for point guards because it measures how effectively a player uses possessions – how often they end a possession with a score vs. how often they end it with a turnover. In simple terms, it’s about decision making – is this player overall helping more than they’re hurting.

The top point guard in the league before the break was Diana Taurasi with 2.62 pts/zero pt. poss. and the lowest was Shannon Bobbitt with .86 pts/zero pt. poss. Over the last three games, Loree Moore has had .33 pts/zero pt. poss. whereas Leilani Mitchell has had 1.74 pts/zero pt. poss.

So again in simple terms, Moore is hurting more than she’s helping in terms of putting points on the scoreboard and she’s not really creating many opportunities for others. Mitchell isn’t creating for others either, but she’s at least managing to score more than she ends possessions without a score.

Due to experience and leadership factors, I wouldn’t advocate for Mitchell to start. However, it’s clear that she deserves more than 10 minutes per game, especially when the team seems to be struggling to create offense.

Simple things rather than magical performances are what the Liberty need

The Liberty don’t need massive changes right now, they really just need to find a way to get back to doing the things that they do well and doing them consistently. Playing strong defense and finding their offensive rhythm are two things that they could easily adjust.

But I am still quite surprised that they’ve been playing so poorly since the Olympic break when you would have thought they had plenty of time to work on the little fundamentals that they need to win games.

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How Chicago Set the Tone For a Playoff Run With a Win in NYC

If the Chicago Sky are trying to make the playoffs, last night’s victory against New York in Madison Square Garden was a damn good start.

I mentioned yesterday that this game between my two of my favorite teams would help me finally pick a favorite. And being a fan is fundamentally based on emotion, then I have to say my heart was with Chicago from the jump ball.

It’s not just Sylvia Fowles, but Jia Perkins, Candice Dupree and even KB Sharp off the bench that I like about this team. And last night, having the extra scoring punch that Canty provided made a huge difference in the game. Then of course you have Armintie Price providing entertainment off the court that makes her easy to root for.

Having said all that, I didn’t expect the Sky to win this game, though I think I secretly hoped they would. I actually agonized over yesterday’s post in which I picked the Liberty to win. But ultimately, it looks like my reasoning was partially correct although my conclusion was wrong – turnover percentage was certainly the key, but the Liberty were not able to force a high percentage of turnovers past the fourth quarter. I also thought Perkins would have to come up huge to win and it turns out she had a huge game.

But what does this tell us about the Sky’s chances at the playoffs? What might hold them back? I think this impressive road win tells us a lot about what we can expect.

Jia Perkins is playing outstanding basketball

Perkins was one of the five players I was most excited to watch and last night she showed why.

In previewing the game (not realizing the Sky would have Canty back), I thought that the point guard match-up of Perkins vs. Loree Moore and Leilani Mitchell would be a huge match-up. As it turns out, those three players probably did end up being the difference in the game although Perkins spent more time playing the off guard than the point guard.

But what makes Perkins so effective is her decisiveness. When she gets the ball she doesn’t just waste dribbles hoping to create something that isn’t there. Instead she does an excellent job of evaluating her options quickly and making a decision that’s best for the team whether that be to dribble, pass, or score.

A perfect example of that is a play at the beginning of the fourth quarter when Perkins got the ball around the free throw line off a drive from Armintie Price, took a dribble toward the center of the court, initiated contact with Erin Thorn, and hit a fading jumper.

That’s the kind of play great players make – executing the offense, recognizing an opportunity to make a play, and capitalizing on the opportunity with a score for themselves or another player. But fundamentally it’s about having a good sense of one’s own abilities, recognizing what the defense is you, and being able to force the defense to shift position.

Right now, Perkins is having an all-star caliber season and playing her way into the top tier of players in the league.

Imagine if the Sky actually ran plays for Fowles…

Looking at the box score, you could say that Fowles played a good game considering that she’s a rookie who just returned from the Olympics earlier this week. But watching the game, you can’t help but wonder if there’s more that she could be doing for the Sky. And the possibility of her having a break out game during the Sky's playoff run is why I also consider her one of the five most intriguing players to watch right now.

It’s clear that they weren’t running plays for her and that’s been pretty consistent with what they’ve done all year. But there were times when they did an extremely good job of getting her in scoring position that I wonder if they could replicate more often.

In the first half Fowles looked frustrated. She spent a lot of time in the high post, either setting screens or being in position to pass the ball. When the Sky tried to get Fowles the ball in the post, but the Liberty immediately collapsed on her. She ended up scoreless with three turnovers in the first half by my count (although the official count only credited her with two turnovers).

And when Fowles didn’t turn the ball over, she was either missing shots or forced to make a difficult pass. As McCarville said, the key to stopping her in the first half was forcing her to make decisions with the ball rather than allowing her to use her scoring instincts.

But in the second half, things changed for the Sky – rather than just looking to find Fowles by posting her up, they got creative: they found her in transition, cutting to the basket, and even on an alley oop play from Perkins to start the half. What that did is help her avoid the double teams while still having an impact on the games.

By moving Fowles around and allowing her to use her superior athleticism to complement the outstanding perimeter play of Perkins, the Sky took the Liberty out of their defensive scheme and the double teams on Fowles eventually stopped.

I wonder how a high-low offense with Dupree in the high post and Fowles down low would work for the Sky. Dupree’s game is much better suited for the high post and pairing her with Fowles in the post would take some of the pressure off. Right now they play Dupree off the wing a lot but that doesn’t allow her to play off of Fowles as well. There are plenty of very simple double post offenses that they can run even if Fowles hasn’t had the practice time they wish she had.

Armintie Price and Dominique Canty provide a nice boost of energy

The x-factor for the Sky all season has been their ability to penetrate on offense. They seemed to do a much better job of that when Perkins was running the team with Canty out.

Last night, I thought Price and Canty did a good job of shouldering some of the burden to drive and distribute to others. Although both players have the tendency to make bad decisions off the dribble at times, last night they did an excellent job of penetrating and setting up scoring opportunities for others. Ultimately, it helped make their offense more fluid. Price had a game-high five assists and Canty didn’t record a turnover all game.

If they want to continue winning, putting pressure on the defense through penetration to the basket and good decision making from Canty and Price will help them immensely.

They still play New York two more times…

Ultimately what I like about Chicago is that their roster is full of potential and possibilities.

They can play a power game in the half court with players like Fowles and Chastity Melvin. They can play an uptempo game with Perkins and Price in the open court and Fowles running the floor as a trailer. Or they can play a half court offense with Canty, Perkins, and Price driving to the basket and creating that way.

The key is that they need to find their identity. Right now it seems like Coach Steven Key is concerned about Fowles not having the practice time to learn the offense, but it seems like if they just continue playing to her strengths they’ll be better off.

But most interesting in terms of Chicago’s playoff run is that they have two more games against New York before the end of the season. That means that tonight’s performance bodes well for their playoff chances. We can’t expect them to sweep a team as gritty as New York, but if they can take two of three using the strategy of attacking the basket and creatively finding Fowles for high percentage baskets, they will be in good position for the playoffs.

Transition Points

Team defense was solid: the Sky might not be known for their defense, but they played excellent team defense against the Liberty. In the first half that showed up just by shutting down most of New York’s penetration. In the fourth quarter, it showed up in the form of forcing turnovers – 4 of New York’s 7 fourth quarter turnovers were due to Chicago steals.

New York’s ball movement fell apart: New York had trouble with their synergy all game. A lot of their offense is based on spacing and ball movement to get the open shot. Rather than penetrating into the key, they make smart cuts and score off good passes. Throughout the game, they pressured the Liberty ball handlers and helped off of shooters, essentially daring the Liberty to beat them from the perimeter, which doesn’t seem like the best strategy considering the Liberty are the top 3 point shooting team in the league. But it worked…

Chicago stifled New York’s ball movement for most of the game, but they really put the clamps on in the 4th quarter – New York shot 25% from the field and had a synergy score of 37.5 in the 4th. So it should come as no surprise that they were outscored 20-8 and squandered the 3 point lead they had at the beginning of the quarter.

Chicago vs. Washington has huge playoff implications: Chicago’s next game against Washington tonight will be a big one if the Sky intend to make the playoffs. They’ll have to leap frog Washington to even have a shot so beating the Mystics head to head would go a long way to achieving that goal. Too bad we can’t see that one…

Related Links:

Liberty Lack Execution Against Sky
http://www.spmsportspage.com/published/spmarticles/liberty-lack-execution-ag.shtml



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Finding the formula for team chemistry…or dynamics…or cohesion…or something…

A few weeks ago, PT from the Pleasant Dreams blog commented that “chemistry” didn’t seem like quite the right word to describe what I’m looking at since that implies that players don’t get along with each other. But I recently got some clarification on that.

Eric Musselman, a former NBA coach who blogs about basketball and observations on sports coaching had a post last Friday entitled, “Finding the formula for team chemistry”. He cites an article from Pat Bloom, the head baseball coach at the University of Wisconsin- Stevens Point, that separates chemistry into two types – task cohesion and social cohesion. Uh oh… more terms…but the explanation is insightful:

Task cohesion "refers to a team’s ability to function as a collective unit and perform effectively on the field. If your team has a high level of task cohesion, meaning that they play well together and remain united in the pursuit of the team’s goals, then they are more likely to enjoy success."

Liking each other, simply being friends and enjoying hanging out together, i.e., a team with high social cohesion, "means very little in the way of predicting your team's performance." In other words, just because your team gets along doesn't mean they'll win any games.

In fact, according to Coach Bloom, "it has even been found that teams who are high in social cohesion play worse as a team."

But a team with high task cohesion isn't guaranteed to succeed. However, there's good news for basketball coaches, according to Coach Bloom.

"For team sports like basketball and ice hockey, where players’ movements and verbalizations must be highly interactive and coordinated to achieve success, it has been found that greater levels of task cohesion relate to greater team success."

It would be interesting to find a way to read more about the theory that teams that are high in social cohesion play worse as a team, but that’s besides the point for my current task. The point here is that finding ways to measure task cohesion is of huge importance to basketball analysis.

So during the break, I spent some time looking more deeply at the “team dynamics” ratings I have used in the past to make them more useful for analysis. Here’s what I came up with.

Deriving a formula

Originally I started my analysis with the concept of synergy, which was a metric created to say something about a team’s offensive cohesion by adding their assisted field goal percentage to their true shooting percentage. I then looked at a team’s opponent’s synergy to get a sense of their ability to disrupt the opponent’s synergy. Thus, I used synergy differential to measure defensive and offensive task cohesion.

However, synergy differential didn’t seem to do much to explain why a team won and lost, so I added other statistics based on things that seemed to explain why certain teams succeeded despite having low synergy – offensive rebounding rate and turnover rate.

So then you have the following formula, which I have called "Team Dynamics":

(Team synergy – opp. Synergy) + off reb rate – turnover rate = team dynamics rating

Essentially, those numbers described the core principles of basketball: the ability to move the ball to create high percentage scoring opportunities, the ability to disrupt the other team’s offense, and the ability to manage possessions effectively. In terms described by Bloom above, team dynamics are used to measure the degree of cohesion for a given team.

However, that still didn’t fully describe why teams win or lose – unfortunately there were six games in which the team with the higher team dynamics rating lost. And so I tweaked the formula again.

Adding the fifth factor of team dynamics

You may notice that the formula bears a striking resemblance to Dean Oliver’s Four Factors. However, there was one factor I left out as I “derived” the formula from common basketball sense – free throw rate.

Free throw rate is a ratio of free throws made to field goals attempted. In plain language, it describes the percentage of their offensive production that comes from the free throw line. An opponent’s free throw rate says something about how many free throws a team is allowing, which is also a proxy to how much they are fouling.

When I added that to the existing formula it described the winners and losers in every game except one -- Los Angeles vs. New York on Friday, July 25th (Los Angeles had a huge fourth quarter and a massive offensive rebounding advantage in that game). But that also required an additional change – instead of using true shooting percentage (which includes free throw and three point shooting), I switched to effective field goal percentage (which just weights three point shots more heavily).

In addition, I realized that looking at synergy differential over the course of a season was not that useful – synergy will vary from opponent to opponent depending on match-ups, so it’s more useful to just know a team’s average differential and compare it to the opponent they’re facing. So here’s the new formula:

Team synergy + off reb rate + free throw rate – turnover rate

But now there’s an additional problem – it only measures offensive cohesion. But there’s a very simple solution to that based on what I’ve done with game analysis – it’s simple one team’s offensive cohesion vs. the other’s. So the opponent’s offensive cohesion really tells us quite a bit about a team’s defense. So over the course of a season, if we look at a team’s offensive cohesion and their defensive cohesion based upon their opponents’ statistics, we get an offensive and defensive cohesion rating.

Why is this useful?

The reason I find this useful is that it’s not just a simple way of comparing teams to see how they’re playing, but it also allows us to say something about why a team is playing well or poorly on both sides of the ball.

When we want to know what happened in a game or even in a given quarter, these numbers give us the opportunity to actually tell a story of what happened beyond the final score and why a team won or lost. For a basketball geek like me, it’s extremely helpful just to get an idea of what makes each team tick.

So here are the team dynamics numbers for each team (their overall offensive and defensive numbers are on today’s other post):

Team Dynamics
Team	Synergy	OReb Rate	FT Rate	Tov Rate	Differential
Seattle Storm	70.47	30.98%	26.32%	18.30%	+8.82
Connecticut Sun	72.78	31.19%	23.90%	17.62%	+8.29
San Antonio	75.27	25.29%	27.53%	19.39%	+8.26
Los Angeles	72.91	32.72%	24.53%	20.93%	+7.76
Detroit Shock	71.66	34.21%	22.31%	17.66%	+4.99
Chicago Sky	71.19	31.29%	26.88%	18.91%	+3.88
New York Liberty	73.45	28.22%	24.57%	19.52%	+3.15
Sacramento	66.22	33.15%	28.72%	19.98%	+2.27
Houston	70.57	33.68%	24.68%	20.91%	+1.21
Minnesota	70.47	30.98%	26.32%	18.30%	+1.14
Indiana	67.09	28.62%	21.13%	21.02%	-3.75
Washington	69.42	32.45%	19.24%	23.02%	-7.30
Phoenix	70.36	30.83%	25.24%	16.39%	-10.87
Atlanta	65.68	28.20%	24.64%	20.42%	-26.06

The San Antonio Silver Stars are an excellent example of how these statistics are helpful. They currently have the best record in the league while having a below average offense statistically and above average defense. The easy explanation is that they are just a very good defensive team. However, that doesn’t tell the full story.

You can’t really say they’re just winning with defense when they have two of the league’s top ten scorers (Sophia Young and Becky Hammon) and a third (Ann Wauters at #21). But when we look at their team dynamics, we see that they have consistently had the best synergy rating of any team in the league. In other words, they not only have a versatile set of scorers, but they also move the ball extremely well, which makes them difficult to defend.

When we can look at teams in terms of strengths and weaknesses it only enhances our ability as fans to talk about and understand what makes our team great…and vulnerable. It helps us analyze player transactions and perhaps even matchups.

A preview of tonight’s match-ups

So I’m going to stick my neck out a little and try to make some predictions about two games tonight that I plan on watching: Chicago vs. New York and San Antonio vs. Phoenix.

Chicago vs. New York

The playoffs will start early for me this season – the playoffs to decide my favorite team, that is.

The Liberty and Sky will play three times before the end of the regular season and by the end, I should have a good idea of which team is my favorite. As I’ve implied previously, I’d say I’m leaning toward the Sky, but there’s just something I love about the Liberty’s style of play…

Anyway…

I’ve already noted that the key players for Chicago in this game will be Sylvia Fowles and Jia Perkins – a post presence and a perimeter scorer, two positions that are actually a strength for New York. Fowles vs. Janel McCarville and Perkins vs. Loree Moore/Leilani Mitchell will be exciting to watch.

But based on these team dynamics Chicago is the more efficient offensive team whereas New York is the stronger defensive team. In fact, these are two of the teams whose numbers don’t at all reflect their records – New York is over-performing its numbers and Chicago is under-performing its numbers. But there’s a story even there.

The key appears to be turnover percentage – Liberty opponents have committed the third most turnovers in the league whereas the Sky’s limited success is predicated on playing a safe brand of basketball. In addition, the Liberty are a poor offensive rebounding team, but the Sky allow the third highest offensive rebounding rate in the league.

In other words, the Liberty have won games despite poor offensive rebounding but the Sky allow a high percentage of offensive rebounds. And the Liberty win by creating turnovers while the Sky thrive on playing it safe and waiting for shots. Then there’s the x-factor of Fowles who should influence the game on both ends of the floor.

So my pick? Right now, I really like the Sky’s lineup and think Fowles will help them keep the Liberty’s offensive rebounds down. But offensively, I’d imagine that McCarville and Catherine Kraaveld could force turnovers from Fowles and Dupree that will minimize their effectiveness and force the Sky’s perimeter players to win the game.

Even as well as Jia Perkins is playing, I don’t think she’s the type of player who can singlehandedly win a game. Also, it’s worth keeping in mind that the Sky have lost seven consecutive road games while the Liberty have won six straight games in Madison Square Garden.

There is hope for the Sky -- IF the Sky use Fowles as a key component of their offense to take pressure off of Candice Dupree and Jia Perkins AND Fowles can respond well to the inevitable Liberty double teams then MAYBE the Sky could pull off the upset. But I see it as extremely unlikely tonight.

Edge: New York

San Antonio vs. Phoenix

I'm excited to see how Diana Taurasi plays in her first game back, so I'm watching this one as well instead of the Sparks-Monarchs game which should also be pretty good.

Phoenix needs to set the tone for the rest of the season and this game would give them a huge energy boost. But really, San Antonio is the worst possible match-up for the Mercury – they play ball control offense and solid team defense.

Los Angeles exposed San Antonio’s one key weakness – their opponent’s offensive rebounding. But without Tangela Smith, it’s unlikely that the Mercury will be able exploit that weakness, even though they are an average offensive rebounding team.

Even if Taurasi and Pondexter go off for huge games, it’s unlikely that the Mercury will find a way to stop both Wauters and Young from dominating on the boards and extending possessions.

The way the Mercury could win? If Taurasi scores 30+ points and they find a way to contain Young with the Rover defense, the Mercury have a chance. But with the season Young was having prior to the break, it’s unlikely that will occur.

Edge: San Antonio

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Guts and Determination: Can the Liberty Really Take First Place in the East?

At the beginning of the season I didn’t know one player on the Liberty although I had some vague recollection of Janel McCarville’s name.

So forgive me if I’m shocked that in beating the Sparks 69-68 in a heart stopping thriller, the Liberty are within one game of first place in the Eastern Conference.

There’s nothing like a gritty New York-Los Angeles competition to help a league move past a week filled with distraction. In fact, it addressed some of the things that critics think the WNBA needs – it was the perfect example of how competitive, passionate, and physical women’s basketball players can be…even without starting a melee.

So while people spent most of the week talking about how a Detroit-LA rematch would make for an exciting (and highly rated) finals series, why not talk up the possibility of a New York-LA matchup?

With Connecticut and Detroit floundering could the Liberty really take first place and make a run at the WNBA finals? If they keep playing with the energy and toughness they displayed last night against LA, then why not?

A New York - LA finals would be great for the league: major media markets, competitive games, and match of the pre-season favorite vs. the consummate underdog. It might not create quite the buzz a Detroit-LA rematch would, but the basketball could be just as good.

Now of course I’m biased – I like the Liberty. And the world certainly doesn’t need another biased New York sports team fan (though I think I might help bolster the Californian Liberty fan demographic). But if you put aside the Outdoor Calamity from last week, the Liberty have won 6 straight home games and 7 of 9 in July, beating LA twice.

As counter-intuitive as it might seem, it’s the Sparks who might ruin this intriguing scenario because their ever elusive team chemistry might keep them from even making the playoffs. Nevertheless, the depth and toughness that the Liberty showed last night might be enough to make them a legitimate contender and give them a shot at the top spot in the Eastern Conference.

J-Mac’s Toughness

I really cannot say enough about Janel McCarville’s game. She’s a fearless and well rounded player who doesn’t really put up gaudy statistics, but just gets the job done. And she does it with attitude.

What people will remember about the game is Janel McCarville’s driving layup over the outstretched arms of Lisa Leslie and Candace Parker that ended up being the game winner. What may be forgotten is McCarville’s tough play on both ends of the floor throughout the game that prevented the Sparks from finding their ever-elusive offensive rhythm.

Although it seemed to be a bizarre strategy at first, the Liberty repeatedly looked to McCarville in the post not only to score, but also create opportunities for others. Defensively, McCarville and whoever else was around collapsed on Leslie and Parker whenever they got the ball and contesting almost every shot. They made life difficult for an LA team that has already been consistently inconsistent on offense his year.

She didn’t have a perfect game, but I thought it was a gutsy and effective strategy that demonstrated how much faith Pat Coyle has in McCarville. LA has the ability to completely neutralize interior players so to go right at their strength seemed counter-intuitive. But McCarville has such a high basketball IQ that she picked her spots perfectly. She played an effective inside and out game punctuated by the driving layup at the end.

However, she doesn’t deserve all the credit.

The bench should get the game ball for this one

Another interesting storyline was the outstanding play of the Liberty bench, which outscored the Sparks’ bench 24-12. In fact, it was a lineup of bench players late in the third quarter and early in the fourth that built the lead for the Liberty. They entered the game up 5 points and exited up 9 to an ovation from the crowd and tons of momentum.

That five minute stretch brought up an interesting coaching dilemma: if your bench players have found a rhythm and extended the lead, do you stick with them or put the starters back in to bring home the victory?

Pat Coyle chose to return to her starters with 7:53 left in the fourth while the bench was one a role. As might be obvious now, they looked completely out of sync, and started settling for three pointers instead of moving the ball for good shots. The lead eventually evaporated, which set up McCarville’s game winning shot. Their synergy score dropped from 106 in the third quarter to 54 in the 4th -- they stopped moving the ball and shot only 33% from the field.

If I were to pinpoint one thing that shifted when the starters came back in, it was the difference between Leilani Mitchell and Loree Moore, the same thing that beat LA the first time. Mitchell’s quickness helped her make plays defensively and offensively that kept the energy level high and established a great rhythm. When she left the game they just seemed deflated and settling for threes is a reliable indicator of problems on offense.

Something else I thought about is whether the wholesale substitutions that Coyle tends to make are effective. In this case, putting 3 fresh players in the game may have disrupted the chemistry as much if not more than the change at point guard. Had she staggered the substitutions might they have kept the momentum going?

The view from hindsight is still hazy…

It’s hard to say whether it was Coyle’s decision to replace the bench players or LA’s increased intensity down the stretch that lost the lead. But given how effective Leilani Mitchell has been in her two games against the Sparks, it’s reasonable to say that Coyle should have left her in a little bit longer while she was driving the momentum.

Sometimes a coach makes the decision to go with the bench and the team falls apart under the pressure of closing out a game. Other times, things just seem to be clicking on all cylinders and the starters disrupt the chemistry. But it does call into question the effectiveness of whole sale substitutions.

Regardless, this team is built for a playoff run because of their depth and the fact that you cannot really key in on one player to shut them down. They just seem to keep coming at their opponents with different pieces and if one person isn’t playing well, there seems to be someone else to pick up the slack (as long as they play indoors). On paper, they may not strike anyone as a championship contender, but this may be a case where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Transition Points:

The Liberty's next five games give them a real chance to make up some ground -- they have Atlanta twice, Chicago at home, and Detroit on the road. At this point, every game is important, but this seems to work in their favor.

Loree Moore didn't seem to have a good game statistically, but if you watched closely, she had a huge impact (before the fourth quarter). I often take notes on a few players while watching games and keep track of things like early shot attempts, contested shots, and lost assists (where she would have gotten an assist had her teammate made the shot). Moore was credited with only 2 assists for the game, but I recorded 8 lost assists. This is why judging the performance of point guards is so difficult -- Moore is an outstanding distributor in terms of finding her teammates in position to score...they just don't make the shots.

There's not much more to say about the Sparks strategy-wise, but I think they really missed Bobbitt's energy last night. Although she's a rookie and makes plenty of mistakes, she seems to be the glue that holds their offense together at times.

Relevant Links:

July 25th, 2008: Los Angeles at New York
http://gamenotesofdoom.blogspot.com/2008/07/july-25th-2008-los-angeles-at-new-york.html

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The Liberty Outdoor Classic: "Performance Didn’t Match the Setting"

There were two things I feared about the Liberty Outdoor Classic: a sloppy turnover fest or a blow-out. Neither would do anything to attract casual fans.

Tonight we got both – the Liberty committed 21 turnovers (only one more than the Fever's 20) and got blown out “at home”.

Nevertheless, kudos to the WNBA on the Liberty Outdoor Classic – it was a great event for the league and for basketball. Wish I could have been there. It was an historic event and it seemed like an amazing setting.

But what about the fact that it wasn’t on broadcast television?

Two days ago, the Women’s Sports Blog had a post that said the following:

There's going to be an outdoor game between the Libs and the Fever at the National Tennis Center and it's not going to be on television? Fabulous planning, W. 'Cause that wouldn't have been interesting to the casual fan, or anything.

I understand that sentiment because it would have been great to watch the game on TV. And I’m not sure if there was a conscious choice not to televise it or if it was just a function of the terms of the broadcast contract.

But as the fourth quarter began and it just felt like the Liberty wouldn’t be able to muster up the momentum to get control of the game, it was evident that not televising the game was the right thing to do.

I think Mary Murphy’s words near the end of the game summarized my feelings perfectly:

“The question that you hear from people – is it worth it? Is it worth it taking your team away from an arena where you’ve won five in a row and you really have it going? And I think the anwer is yes. When you’re trying to capture attention, when you’re trying to get the eye of the casual sports fan on you, you need to step outside of the box and do some different things. And the New York Liberty have done that in the past and they continue with this kind of game. The performance didn’t match the setting, but that doesn’t mean that this young team won’t go on to great success the rest of this year.”

The fact that the game occurred will generate some buzz and I imagine that could “catch the eye” of some casual fans. However, what the WNBA game didn’t need was one more reason for the casual fan to dismiss and demean the game because of one bad showing in such a special setting. And you don’t want to give off the impression that your sport is dependent on a gimmick because it lacks substance, especially in an otherwise great season.

And that’s exactly why the WNBA made the right decision in not putting the game on national television. With the buzz from this game and the Olympic buzz, it’s possible that a few casual fans could feel the impulse to watch a few WNBA games after hearing about the women’s national team….especially if they win gold.

But the game played tonight -- independent of the atmosphere -– was not a performance representative of the quality of play that would attract casual fans to the game. And that doesn't mean they should never do it again -- I hope they do...and I hope it's a better game.

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