Fever Collapse Under the Pressure Of "Playing Not To Lose"

I chose to watch the Fever-Lynx webcast last night instead of the Sparks-Sun game because I figured it would be more interesting to continue following the Fever without Tully Bevilqua that the Sparks without 4/5 of their starting lineup.

I ended up feeling pretty good about that decision, but it came at the Fever’s expense as they blew a 9-point lead with less than 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter and ended up losing the game 84-80 in overtime

The game wasn’t especially “exciting”, but very interesting from a strategy perspective. Blowing leads has apparently been a problem all season for the Fever and the first thing that jumps out on the stat sheet and in recaps is the Fever going 16-for-16 from the free throw line in the 4th quarter. After the game Ebony Hoffman described the problem…and rightly pointed out that “it had nothing to do with the refs”.

"This is maybe the third or fourth game we haven't closed them out at the end and had a team come back. And we just foul them and send them to the line. We really can't have them shoot 36 free throws and make 31 of 'em and we only go to the line 16 times. It had nothing to do with the refs, just some bonehead plays we made."

I think Hoffman is correct – for whatever reason, the Fever started fouling instead of executing down the stretch and that cost them the game. But the flip-side of the fourth quarter collapse was a shift in offensive strategy predicated on playing it safe. And it was Indiana Fever color commentator Debbie Antonelli’s observations that brought it to my attention.

Tan White's point guard play a concern for some

Part of the reason I was intrigued by the Fever game is that they tried Tan White at point guard, which was their best replacement option for Tully Bevilaqua, judging by the numbers. But for a large portion of the Fever-Lynx webcast last night, Antonelli focused on a major difference between Bevilaqua and White: whereas the former tends to quickly bring the ball up the court and initiate the offense, the latter has a tendency to play with the ball too much before distributing.

While I agree with the observation about Bevilaqua and White’s playing styles, I disagree with her assessment of the situation – White’s energy and efforts to penetrate were a huge benefit to the Fever and actually one of the reasons (along with Tamika Catchings) the Fever were able to build a lead late in the fourth. Conversely, Antonelli wanted Catchings or Katie Douglas to handle the ball because they tend to initiate the offense more quickly.

So when Douglas entered the game to run the offense with 3:31 left in the fourth and the Fever up 7 points, it was one of those fun opportunities to directly challenge basketball assumptions. And Antonelli made a comment that I think foreshadowed the reason for the Fever’s downfall:

Lin Dunn discussing with Katie Douglas what I believe will be, “Manage the point a little bit for us, Katie. Handle the basketball in the late game situation. Katie Douglas a good three point shooter, as is Tamika Catchings, under pressure.

Prior to that point, Antonelli and play-by-play announcer Chris Denari had wondered when the Fever would start taking time off the clock with their 9-point lead in hand. And once the Fever actually implemented that strategy with Douglas entering the game, the collapse ensued.

With football season on the horizon, the Fever’s late-game strategy reminded of the old cliché that “the prevent defense prevents you from winning” – when you start “playing not to lose” and inexplicably stop doing what got you the lead in the first place, you’re asking for trouble. And although Tan White is not a perfect point guard by any means, I think the late game collapse demonstrated the value of her attacking instincts.

Why hurry to initiate one of the league’s worst offenses?

In summarizing last night’s game, Fever media relations director Kevin Messenger (who provides us with the disclaimer that he’s not an X’s and O’s guy) wrote that despite solid defense, “Offensively, we don't get to the line.” You don’t have to be an expert strategist to figure out that the reason the Fever don’t get to the line is their inability to penetrate the defense. And in skimming through Kevin Messenger’s blog this season, he has mentioned repeatedly that one of the Fever’s biggest problems is their lack of a point guard who can penetrate. It’s a major problem for the Fever offense.

It’s no coincidence then that the Fever are one of the worst offenses in the WNBA, right ahead of the Washington Mystics. They score the second least points per game, have the second worst offensive rating, and the third worst synergy score. So when Tan White chose to follow her instincts and do something other than run the typical offense, it seemed like a good thing – at the end of the fourth, their 75 points exceeded their season average of 70 points per game.

Tan White is by no means a perfect point guard, but she brought a bit of that ability to drive to the basket and set up others that the Fever have lacked all season. White was one of the players I kept track of last night because she got the surprising (to me) start at point guard. What I kept noting is that she did an excellent job of penetrating and either making assists or setting up scoring opportunities for teammates.

The energy and rhythm that comes from a point guard that is able to penetrate is huge and it was noticeable for most of the game last night. White’s ability to get to the basket also put a lot of pressure on the defense to stay in front of her while also keeping an eye on scorer’s Catchings and Douglas. It kept the Fever off balance because there were three players on the court at most times that were all able to create offense for themselves and others.

They built their 9-point lead in the 4th quarter with Bond, White, and Catchings in the game driving or cutting to the basket finding each other for quality scoring opportunities. It was by far the most fluid stretch of Fever basketball of the entire game. It wasn’t just because White alternated playing the lead guard with Bond and Catchings, but they were in attack mode, forcing the Lynx defense to rotate and guard multiple options. With five minutes left in the fourth, they already had their highest assist total of the season.

So even though White was indeed playing with the ball (and turned it over 6 times), they were doing an excellent job of moving the ball and finding enough scoring opportunities to take a decent lead despite poor shooting. I was also following the Yahoo box score at that time and it keeps track of plus/minus numbers – White led the team with a +15.

So why change what's working?

The likely reason Katie Douglas came into the game at 3:31 is because Tan White had just committed a particularly bad turnover…because she was playing with the ball in traffic. I say that only because after the turnover, Lin Dunn threw up her hands in disgust and then called Douglas off the bench.

I’m not saying Douglas is the problem and I actually thought she would be one of the best replacements for Bevilaqua. But it seemed that the shift in strategy from attacking the basket to “managing the clock” was motivated by a fear of losing the game after White made a particularly bad turnover.

From that point until the end of the game, the Fever were outscored 12-3 and 21-8 if you include the overtime period. During that time, the Fever spent the majority of their time firing jumpers while the Lynx lined up for a parade to the free throw line. It was the result of very little ball movement, protecting the ball instead of trying to score, and a failure to convert on the scoring opportunities that led them to build the lead.

It just seemed like they overreacted when they didn’t need to and decided to play it safe instead of taking the risk that attacking the basket wouldn’t work. And you don’t win basketball games by always playing it safe – the fact that the Phoenix Mercury are defending champions should demonstrate that.

Inefficient personnel or poor strategy?

There is no doubt that the Lynx’s 16 free throws caused the Fever to lose. And (thankfully) the fouls in the last 3:31 – when the Fever had a 7-point lead – were good calls and bad plays by the Fever. But it didn’t help the Fever to shift to a strategy of milking the clock while they were up 7.

They probably did that because, as Messenger points out, they have repeatedly lost leads on their home floor. So it’s understandable that Lin Dunn got worried when it appeared that it could happen again. This was also an important game for them to create separation from Washington and Chicago, whom are now two games behind the Fever for the 4th playoff spot in the east.

But it seems inaccurate to claim that Bevilaqua’s absence or White’s non-traditional style of play is responsible for this loss. The Fever had lost 3 of 5 prior to Bevilaqua’s absence and their offense has been a problem all season. Somehow they need to find a way to keep up the driving energy on offense that helped them build a lead.

The problem is bigger than just one player when you blow three consecutive leads at home to teams playing without key players (Lauren Jackson, Dominique Canty, and Candice Wiggins got injured after 30 seconds last night). This does not bode well for their playoff chances down the stretch – the Mystics are something of a wild card now with their new coach and the Sky have Sylvia Fowles back and are playing good basketball.

This is good for the league of course because it sets up a very exciting fight for the playoffs involving a team with high expectations and two teams who look rejuvenated. Unfortunately, it has to be nerve racking for Indiana fans.

Transition Points:

Had the Fever been able to take care of the ball more effectively (they turned the ball over on approximately 20.5% of their possessions) they might have mounted a larger 4th quarter lead. 4 of their 5 starters, who played the majority of the game, had at least 3 turnovers. Ouch.

Candice Wiggins went down with 3:19 left in the 1st quarter almost immediately after entering the game. From the Horton Report:

Injury Update: Candice injured her lower back in the 1st quarter on a drive through the lane, she collided with Tan White, got knocked off balance and hit the floor hard on her right side. Candice was in tears as she left the court in a wheelchair, it looked particularly awkward as she couldn't straighten her right leg. Last word we got was that she was headed to the hospital for further evaluation.

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Candice Wiggins: On the Positive Side of "Combo Guard"

Candice Wiggins is already one of the best “combo guards” in the league.

And that’s not a bad thing.

After 12 games off the bench this season and putting up some amazing rookie stats, it’s hard not to get excited about Wiggins’ star potential. She’s exciting to watch because she plays with so much passion that you can almost feel how much she loves the game.

However, at the beginning of the WNBA season there were some doubts as to whether Candice Wiggins could play point guard. She was labeled a “versatile” guard who could play the point, but it was assumed that she was clearly better on the wing.

"I've played the point all through college,” Wiggins said during the pre-season. “I love to bring up the ball and alleviate pressure from my teammates. I know my true position is the '2', but I can also play the '1'."

Since the season started, she’s demonstrated the ability to move fluidly between off guard and point guard and she has arguably earned herself a starting position on the Lynx.

This past weekend, Wiggins proved that she is definitely a “combo guard” in its most positive sense – possessing the ability to influence the game off the bench by scoring, defending and creating opportunities for her teammates. Although the outstanding play of veterans Deanna Nolan and Shannon Johnson grabbed the headlines in back to back losses against the Shock and Comets, Wiggins more than held her own.

Not only has she responded to doubts about her ability to play the point, but she is also the perfect example of how valuable a talented combo guard can be to a team.

The shift from the "traditional" point guard

A few years back there was a story about the WNBA’s transition from traditional point guards to point guards who could score, led by Diana Taurasi.

The WNBA's transition away from the traditional point guard has been equally simple, and, in more ways than Taurasi, 2004 has been a tipping point… The WNBA's point guards, led by Taurasi, are becoming bigger and more physical all the time. And the ability to score makes the league's modern point guards much more dangerous on offense - even as passers, suggests [Sue] Bird.

Wiggins seems to be a continuation of this trend – she’s definitely not a traditional point guard -- although she doesn’t have quite the size of Taurasi. Whereas this trend seems to be popular in the WNBA, it has become taboo in the NBA.

In the NBA, “combo guard” has the stigma of being a “tweener” – a player who is too short to play shooting guard but not quite possessing the ball skills to be a point guard. Part of that is because we continue to hang onto antiquated notions of what it means to be a “point guard”:

Our perspective on what makes a point guard great is seriously warped, and I blame it all on the false heralding of the assist as a game-changer and of purity as the singular path to point guard greatness. Because we believe assists to be of utmost import, and because pure point guards are more valued than scorers, we consider PGs who get lots of assists to be pure and thus, the best. They supposedly raise the game of their teammates. They make everything offense easier. They lead, muzzled or not, because they pass. It's malarkey (and I offer Jason Kidd as proof).

Could the same thing be happening in the WNBA? I think so…and I think it is the primary reason people have doubts about Wiggins.

Combo guards can balance scoring and distributing

Last week I looked at the league’s starting point guards and focused on the exact opposite critique: that people often assume a point must be able to score in order to be effective. And David Berri over at Wages of Wins would seem to have a similar take in his comparison of Lindsay Whalen and Becky Hammon: like the NBA the WNBA overrates scoring.

…Hammon - relative to Whalen - is the much better scorer. This is true from the line and the field. But when we look at the Net Possession factors - rebounds, steals, and turnovers - Whalen has an immense edge. Whalen is better on the boards, gets more steals, and is far less likely to commit a turnover. As Win Score indicates (and this is the same story told with Wins Produced), Whalen’s advantage with respect to Net Possessions completely erases Hammon’s edge as a scorer.

So which is it? Are we overestimating scoring or assists?

For point guards, I think the answer is that it actually requires balance.

What a great “combo guard” can bring to a team is the ability to balance scoring and setting up teammates. In fact, if you watch the Lynx closely, Wiggins actually sets up her teammates by making hershttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifelf such a scoring threat. The way she attacks the basket puts pressure on the defense to focus on her, which in turn opens up opportunities for others. And similar to Whalen (or Deanna Nolan) she does it in more ways than one.

Wiggins can rebound, knows how to blow by defenders, can find open teammates on the move, and wreak havoc on defense (though Shannon Johnson had a great game, at one point during the second half Wiggins actually forced Johnson to dribble out the entire shot clock by pressuring her at half court ). She influences the game by keeping the defense on its heels every moment she’s in the game.

Sure she has a low assist ratio relative to the field of starting point guards, but that’s because she’s doing so much scoring. What’s more important is that she’s also not wasting possessions for her team with all the scoring she does and that’s pretty amazing for a rookie guard. However, she occasionally has lapses where she gets too focused on scoring.

The downside –and perhaps the reason why some people may still doubt her ability to play the point – is that she often seems out of control. You know how coaches advise players to “be quick, but not in a hurry”? Wiggins often looks like she’s in a hurry.

She has a quick release on her shot, but sometimes it seems like she’s just flinging the ball at the basket, especially when she doesn’t get her feet set. Once she really gets into the flow of the game, she can also make ill-advised drives into bigger players, double clutching on shots and failing to score. But when you consider that the Lynx seem to just come alive when she’ on the court, all of those flaws can be dismissed as rookie mistakes.

It might be tempting to look at their recent losing streak and say Wiggins is not effective at point guard, but I think that’s hardly the problem. The thing to remember about Candice Wiggins is that the energy and heart she brings to the floor every game results in a huge net positive effect for her team.

Get her off the bench!!

I absolutely think that as a combo guard, Wiggins has the ability to start for the Lynx. Of course there might be all kinds of behind the scenes reasons she doesn’t start – adjusting to the WNBA, learning the plays, how she’s performed in practiced, etc, etc. But just based on her court performance, when she’s on the floor, good things happen.

In the game against the Comets on Saturday, the most effective lineup saw for the Lynx was:

Wiggins, Seimone Augustus, Noelle Quinn, Kristen Rasmussen, and Nicole Ohlde.

What was great about that lineup is that they were able to run and capitalize on Wiggins speed, but also use Wiggins as a scorer with Quinn distributing to Augustus and Wiggins.

As a combo guard, Wiggins was able to switch between scorer and distributor depending on the situation. For a brief time, Houston was off balance and a large part of that was on the strength of Wiggins’ play.

Nicky Anosike was also great when she was in because she can run the floor and rebound (she ran into some early foul trouble). But this type of lineup worked well for the Lynx because it allowed them to run. And with other quality guards in Lindsey Harding and Anna DeForge, the Lynx could run all game.

So if the Lynx started with this lineup…

Wiggins, Augustus, Quinn, Anosike, and Ohlde

…they would have a combination of their best scorers and best passers on the court with their best rebounders. That’s exactly the type of lineup needed for a running game: someone to rebound, someone to get the outlet pass, and the rest streaking down to floor looking for early offense. The Lynx just don’t seem to be structured as a team that can bang, so the might as well play to their strengths.

This is not a slight to Anna DeForge or Lindsey Harding who are also talented players, but the Lynx have been getting off to such slow starts that it seems best to get Wiggins on the court, establish an uptempo game, and then keep the guards rotating in to just wear the other team down. There’s no better way to utilize a deep, fast lineup.

If the combo guard fits, play her…

The critique that Candice Wiggins can’t start because her ball-handling and passing skills aren’t yet refined is misguided. She has great instincts and is one of the most efficient guards in the league right now. She just doesn’t get the job done the “traditional” way.

Ultimately, what this issue of the combo guard comes down to is that a combo guard is only as good as the team around her. She can make players better, but she also has to be in a system that fully utilizes all of her abilities. Anne Donovan summed up the point nicely:

"There's no doubt that it's changed, times have changed," she says. "Really, it's a matter of style. You talk about a point guard scoring 20 points per game, obviously Carrie Graf's liking that. In Connecticut, it didn't work for Shannon Johnson to take that many shots, but it's sure working in San Antonio. It's a match of coach's style and player's style."

But when you have a talent like Candice Wiggins, you find a way to make it work.

Relevant Links:

Turnaround time
http://www.downtownjournal.com/index.php?publication=downtown&story=11781&page=65&category=54

Burden of playing catchup sinks Lynx
http://www.startribune.com/sports/lynx/20633259.html?location_refer=Editorials

After a fast WNBA start, Wiggins seeing a few losses
http://origin.contracostatimes.com/warriors/ci_9654386

June 14th, 2008: Minnesota at New York http://gamenotesofdoom.blogspot.com/2008/06/june-14th-2008-minnesota-at-new-york.html

Ballad for the Combo Guard
http://ballhype.com/story/ballad_for_the_combo_guard/

The Best Player in the Game
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/06/16/the-best-player-in-the-game/

The Evolution of the WNBA Point Guard
http://www.wnba.com/storm/news/The_Evolution_of_the_WNBA_Poin-111168-221

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