“Welcome to the new frontier”: Why the WNBA Needs More Whalen…and Parker...and LJ...and Cappie

Connecticut Sun point guard Lindsay Whalen is certainly not the most athletically gifted player and she doesn’t necessarily even make spectacular plays, and yet she consistently stands out in almost every game she plays, even to fans who can hardly spell her name.

Sometime during the first half of the Seattle Storm’s 86-74 home victory over the Connecticut Sun last Thursday, Bethlehem Shoals got my attention to show me a tweet from his second WNBA experience (corrected below for your reading enjoyment).

Whalen is such a great PG she doesn’t even need the ball!

While Shoals’ commentary may strike rational individuals as absurd, Whalen consistently stands out in almost every game she plays as in complete control of everything going on around her. She has a presence on the court that is felt even when she is doing things that seem rather pedestrian.

But how exactly do we describe what makes Whalen such a great player?

As I ponder the question, there’s one play from the Sun's 91-81 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks game this past Sunday night that stands out in my mind.

After Tina Thompson missed a baseline jumper with 4:49 left in the 3rd quarter of what looked to be a Sparks blowout, Whalen snuck through a gap in the lane untouched to grab the rebound. Having secured the ball and brushed off Sparks forward Candace Parker’s attempt to swipe the ball from her, Whalen left the 2008 MVP behind and pushed the ball up court at ¾ speed.

As she crossed the three point line, rookie forward Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton was faced with the unfortunate task of trying to stop Whalen. While common sense might tell us that Wisdom-Hylton had no shot to stop Whalen from going to the basket – having already drawn the attention of the defense, Whalen came to a stop just inside of the free throw line and just shuffled a pass to Sun forward Sandrine Gruda for an open jumper on the wing.

That play is certainly not the most spectacular of Whalen plays and in fact, it wasn’t even the most spectacular of her season-high nine assists from Sunday night. However, the play is quintessential Whalen, affecting the game with nothing more than the subtlest of moves to make the simplest of plays…repeatedly.

She makes basketball look as simple as lacing up our shoes.

Furthermore, it seems that Whalen has made a science of capitalizing on simplest principles of basketball, methodically analyzing a situation to make the best play possible.

To extend the point, even when watching Connecticut Sun point guard Lindsay Whalen in losses, it’s easy to see why she’s a perennial MVP candidate. Her presence on the court is felt, regardless of whether she has the ball in her hands. She’s tough enough to dive deep into the paint for rebounds and graceful enough to make the perfect pass to her teammate for a three pointer. It’s that attitude of winning by any means necessary that makes her great.

On his blog FreeDarko.com, Shoals would later make the claim that the WNBA “needs more Whalen”, primarily because of her “attitude” – “She talks non-stop, plays the whole game with a scowl on her face, and stared down the ref at the half.” However, I would like to expand upon why the WNBA needs more Whalen while also making a more narrow claim.

Earlier in his article, Shoals made what I think is the far more interesting claim in his article, something that I didn’t quite appreciate when we were caught up in the chaos of Key Arena on Thursday night.

I was serious when I twitted that she doesn't even need the ball to operate masterfully from the point. Depending on how you look at it, it's either quasi-mystical, or the kind of what people used to say about Deron Williams ("he gets hockey assists and stays within the system") before dude came to life, but true.

She gives it up almost as soon as she crossed half-court, or posts up at the top of the key, Cassell-style, but as a way of attracting attention and feeding someone else. And these aren't passes for assists; mostly, they set into motion a series of obvious events (two, three, four passes) that result in an open shot. Her teammates usually miss, and Whalen herself can hit the lane strong and sink jumpers at will, but whatever. She's bigger than that. Closest NBA comparison: Old Jason Kidd, if old Jason Kidd were young and could shoot.

(Speaking of which, last night I decided that comparing NBA to WNBA players is the logical next step of NBA esoterica. Like when Kevin told me "Darko was supposed to be what Lauren Jackson is." These days, everyone knows everything about every random player. If you value elitism and obscurity in your fandom—and buy my argument that the WNBA is a variation on the NBA, not an inferior product like college—then welcome to the new frontier.)

There are players in the WNBA like Whalen, Jackson, Parker and Cappie Pondexter that defy our natural inclination toward NBA comparison. These players don’t really have a NBA comparison unless you start fantasizing about maximizing the talent of superstars. They truly do represent a different, not inferior, style of basketball performance.

To stick with Whalen, the only way to make a NBA comparison is by either idealizing what we wished NBA players to be or somehow trying to play with time and the natural course of development to bring together the athleticism of youth with the savvy of age.

And perhaps that is the allure of Whalen for NBA fans –not only does she exhibit intensity and toughness that people do not normally associate with women’s sports, but she is an idealized image of what we wish our favorite point guards would become.

So it should be no surprise that longtime NBA fans, such as myself, Shoals, Phoenix Stan, and Stan’s guest Wattdogg10 all immediately notice Whalen as standing out as something special when we comment on the WNBA.

Players like Whalen, Jackson, Parker, and Pondexter are truly intriguing basketball narratives unto themselves that any true fan of the sport should be able to recognize as special and appreciate. Again, if you can't appreciate how these players play the game, it might be time for you to abandon basketball altogether.

So to elaborate on Shoals’ point, it’s not just that the WNBA needs more Whalen to enhance the product, but “more Whalen” might actually attract NBA fans simply because she would give them pause and really provide a new vision of the game they love. Ditto for Jackson, Parker, and Pondexter.

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Heads Whalen Wins, Tails Liberty Lose

Good teams – playoff teams – are supposed to beat cellar dwellers at home.

So I really want to give the Liberty a pass for losing 74-69 on the road to the Connecticut Sun last night.

And ultimately, you can’t – the Liberty threw away a much needed victory and crept a little bit closer to securing that bottom spot in the East.

Even sadder, is that the collapse was almost predictable.

I’m not sure if the Liberty lack talent or lack motivation…but they really don’t seem to care. I’m not even sure you could say they panicked once the Sun started their comeback…it literally looked like they weren’t interested in the outcome.

Body language, facial expressions, hustle…it just wasn’t there..

Instead, they chose to settle for jump shot out of jump shot, slowly shooting themselves out of the game.

It was almost as though they were officially waving the white flag in preparation of heading to an early vacation.

Rebecca at Game Notes of Dooooooom recently compared the Liberty to a waterbug or a giant flying roach – they move from arbitrary action to an untimely death. And that’s sort of what happened, but not entirely.

They decided to just throw the game during the third quarter this time and then had a small burst of life in the fourth, when Connecticut Sun point guard Lindsay Whalen decided to stomped out all remaining signs of life by driving to the basket treating the Liberty like lesser forms of basketball life.

Or as Whalen said in her post game interview, just playing basketball.

Whalen is an amazing point guard by any standard. People compare her to Seattle Storm guard Sue Bird and I ranked San Antonio Silver Star point guard Becky Hammon above her, but Whalen is unparalleled in the point guard universe.

A knowledgeable fan emailed and suggest a better NBA comparison than Deron Williams would be Jason Kidd, but then Whalen is a better shooter than Kidd hands down (in fact, I recall telling my high school junior varsity basketball coach that I was a better shooter than Kidd, who was hands down the best high school player I’ve ever watched in the Bay Area… but I did shoot 40% from 3 point range on varsity. Take that!)

Whalen can do just about anything you want a basketball player to do for a team. And last night, she did that to the point of carrying a team to victory without her all-star forward. And when I say carried, having watched the game or looked at the box score, can you really say that anyone else significantly helped Whalen during the game?

Forward Kerri Gardin had a good defensive game, recording 4 blocks and 2 steals and guard Tan White had a solid game with 8 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists…but this is one of the few cases in team sports where the game was won on the strength of one player’s performance when it counted most. And that’s impressive.

Of course, the Liberty did everything in their power to help the Connecticut Sun during the third quarter – shooting 27.8% and allowing your opponents to shoot 60% is an excellent way to blow a lead on the road.

But credit Whalen for being the ultimate point guard in this game – leading the team on the court, making teammates better, and doing the little things that allowed her team to win.

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Storm – Sun Reflections: Bird the Facilitator vs. Whalen the Combo Guard

How could I possibly watch a Seattle Storm – Connecticut Sun game and not start thinking about point guards?

In a game that features Storm point guard Sue Bird going up against Sun point guard Lindsay Whalen – arguably the two best point guards in the game -- it’s almost impossible not to dig deeper into the comparison: who is the better point guard?

What makes it so difficult to make a decision is that they really are different players. But that hardly prevents people from making the comparison.

Mike DiMauro of The Day suggests that even Sun fans might have split loyalties as they struggle with their love for UConn that predates the Sun in Connecticut.

But in their own state, the Sun's competition, spoken or otherwise, is UConn. And while the college and pro games are markedly different, there's just no convincing the masses.

So that means that you go beat Bird when she's here. You beat Diana. You get people to notice. Then you do what's truly important and win in the playoffs.

”Ever since the finals in '04, we've had intense games with Seattle,” said Whalen, whose 11 points, seven assists and four rebounds were huge. “It's big to beat them. They have Olympians over there.”

And one of them is Bird, who remains about as beloved a player as there has ever been in Connecticut lore and legend. Happily for Whalen, she was given one of the loudest ovations of the night with Bird in the house Thursday when it was announced she became the 12th player in WNBA history to earn 900 career assists.

One of the commenters on DiMauro’s article even pointed out that the public address announcer at Mohegan Sun Arena introduced Bird with a home-town “Suuuuuuuuuuuuuu Bird!” welcome.

Bird gets most of the accolades as is -- All-Star selections, All-WNBA selections, and Olympic gold medals…does she really need to get a hero’s welcome in Whalen’s house?

I know Whalen won’t say it publicly – which is classy – but with Bird in town and all that comes with that, the Sun's 64-53 win must have been just a little bit sweeter.

But let’s put winning aside for the sake of keeping my point guard obsession alive, even if neither Whalen nor Bird care to engage this dialogue.

Forget all the hoopla and ghosts of UConn success past, present, and future...I’m focusing on the performance on the court.

And I know I might be run out of Seattle for saying this… but if I were to make a tentative statement about who’s the better point guard based on last night’s game…

Edge: Whalen.

Now clearly, it isn’t fair to make this sort of claim based on one game of evidence. However, what I found interesting is that there were elements of each player’s performance last night that perfectly represent why I might give the edge to Whalen as the better point guard for the season as a whole.

And really the way I classified each player yesterday gives away why I’m making the claim – Bird as a facilitator and Whalen as a combo guard.

Yes, we can say that they are just two different types of point guards: Bird is probably the better shooter, while Whalen is the more physical player who uses her size and an amazing ability to see the angles of the game to do a little more off the dribble. But you would have a hard time convincing me that one is a significantly better playmaker than the other by any reasonable standard.

So if I consider them approximately equal as playmakers, I start to look at other things and the fact that Whalen can do more on the court because she’s a more physical player makes it easier for me to claim that she indeed is the better point guard.

And I have three rather simple reasons for that: her ability to attack the basket, her scoring efficiency, and her defensive versatility.

Attacking the basket

The way Whalen and Bird started the game last night really says a lot about their styles as players.

As stated previously – and mentioned by Sun coach Tom Thibault at halftime – Bird is probably the better shooter while Whalen is more physical and a little tougher.

True to form, Bird’s first three plays last night were three point shots, all good ones in rhythm. After that, she made two passes in the half-court to shooters that missed.

In contrast, Whalen’s first three plays were a fastbreak lay-up after a steal, a three pointer, then a missed contested layup on a fast break. Her next three were a nice pass to center Sandrine Gruda on a fast break that resulted in free throws, a missed jumper, and an assist to Gruda for a free throw line jumper, set up by a decisive dribble in the flow of the offense and a well placed bounce pass.

The point is that when Bird gets off to a cold shooting start, she sometimes disappears for quarters at a time. When Whalen is not shooting well, she keeps herself involved by staying in attack mode and finding ways to stay involved in the game, whether that be rebounding, making the right pass, or driving to the basket.

But when Whalen does attack the basket good things happen both for herself and others. It keeps the defense off balance, allows teammates to get easy scoring opportunities, and allows her to get high percentage shots. In last night’s game in particular, Whalen set the tone that allowed her team to win the game.

Scoring efficiency

However, the most important part of Whalen’s aggressiveness driving to the basket is that it gets her easy scoring opportunities. Some numbers from Swanny’s Stats illustrate this point.

Bird relies more heavily on her midrange jumper for scoring and unfortunately has not had a very good shooting year from that range. As of July 30th, almost 30% of her field goal attempts were from the 16-20 foot range but she has only made 30.4% of those shots, which is the 8th lowest in the league.

In contrast, just under 20% of Whalen’s field goal attempts come from the 16-20 foot range and she shoots the fourth percentage in the league from that range. And that’s just the beginning of the shot selection story.

Whalen is among the league’s top 50 in both free throw rate and 2 point percentage whereas Bird’s 2 point percentage is just inside the top 100 and her free throw rate – just below 10% -- is one of the lowest in the league. (Storm teammate Katie Geralds is the lowest of any qualified player at just under 4%). Free throw rate can also be considered a proxy for a player’s aggressiveness in driving to the basket in traffic – you don’t get fouled on a shot very often standing around the three point line and swinging the ball.

So what does this set of numbers tell us? Although Bird is generally considered the better shooter – and I won’t dispute that – Whalen does a better job of creating scoring opportunities for herself that she is able to convert – taking less long shots, attacking the basket more often, and finding her way to the free throw line.

In terms of overall performance, Whalen is both a facilitator in terms of setting up baskets for others and a scorer in terms of finding easy baskets for herself. That ability to penetrate the defense and attack the rim is a critical ability that many teams look for in a point guard. It’s not that Bird cannot do that, but this season, Whalen is a bit better at it.

Defensive versatility

This actually isn’t my idea but Thibault’s. And though he’s a bit biased, I think he’s right.

During the halftime interview last night, Thibault discussed the strengths of Bird and Whalen. To paraphrase, he said that although they are about equal defensively, Whalen’s physicality allows her to sometimes guard 2’s and 3’s.

I don’t think that means she’s a defensive stalwart by any means, but it certainly gives a team more options when trying to find winning combinations to put on the floor.

While this is not the most convincing argument for choosing one player over the other – WNBA.com has both of them listed as 5’10” 150 pounds – it’s an interesting point that Thibault made.

But maybe this all come down to a matter of a difference in mentality?

It’s not that Bird cannot drive, cannot be an efficient scorer, or cannot defend.

It’s that Whalen brings a physicality and toughness to the court in a way that Bird does not.

And that attitude almost prevents Whalen from disappearing for long stretches of time in the same way that Bird does – and that’s without even talking about Whalen’s rebounding ability, which is among the best of any point guard.

This is what I mean when I label Whalen a “combo guard” – she is a facilitator and an efficient scorer. It makes her more dangerous and more valuable to her team. Ultimately, it's about decisions the player makes on the court...and I do think we can evaluate the quality of those decisions.

But when Bird turns it on – as she did at the end of last season and in spurts during games this season – she is the best. Hands down. No dispute here.

I would just argue that Whalen is able to make that happen more consistently.

Transition Points:

• One thing I’ve been keeping track of more closely is lost assists. I count lost assists only on plays when the shooter misses a shot that would have given the passer an assist OR the shooter gets fouled in the act of shooting on a play that would have given the shooter an assist. Last night, I counted four lost assists for both Bird and Whalen. In fact, most point guards who are able to drive and find open players end up tallying 3-4 lost assists a game.
  
  So ultimately, while it’s interesting to keep track of just in terms of documenting what a player has done, I’m not sure if it’s worth using over the long haul to compare players. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to know: is there a player that has significantly more lost assists than others? And if so, why? Were they just not setting up the shooters well or are their shooters just missing wide open shots that the player creates? Hard to tell.

• I was emailing Shoals about the merits of going to see the Sun-Storm game in Seattle when the Sun come this way…and trying to think of how to describe Whalen to a NBA fan. I came up with Utah Jazz point guard Deron Williams. Accurate? I’ll have to do more thinking on that.

• Another interesting, though perhaps useless, thing to analyze about point guards is their crossover. During the Storm-Phoenix Mercury game I went to with Shoals a while back, we got lost in this crossover wormhole…but he recently came out of it and did so in style with a post diagramming different types of crossovers and entitled, “Out of the Wormhole”. Very nice work by him and Tom Ziller.

• For my money, the best WNBA crossover is between Cappie Pondexter and Tanisha Wright. Renee Montgomery might get there one day. Between Bird and Whalen – edge Whalen.

• One thing I find really interesting about the WNBA is that it is still in competition with women’s college basketball in a way that most other professional sports aren’t. Even in the way people around the WNBA – players, coaches, commentators – refer to teams as “programs”. For a moment I thought this was unique to the WNBA, but then as I thought further about it, I could imagine that NFL football is overshadowed by college football in certain places around the nation.
  
  For example, I attended the University of Michigan for two years and there is no way the Detroit Lions are bigger than UM football in Michigan. I imagine similar scenarios for NFL teams in relation to Florida’s trio of University of Florida, University of Miami, and Florida State University. And are the Tennessee Titans really bigger than University of Tennessee football? And haven’t there been entire movies made about how big high school football is in Texas, even if the Dallas Cowboys did just build a fancy new stadium?
  
  A totally irrelevant thought that I found interesting because of the way UConn seems to overshadow the Sun.
  

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“At Last”: Opening Day Preview

Finally.

By some strange coincidence, every single WNBA pre-season game was during a meeting, class, or the NBA playoffs (and I think I overslept a morning one or two). So aside from the Storm game that I went to, I have to confess that I have not seen enough of the WNBA pre-season to give a full preview.

But hey, that didn’t exactly stop a few major national publications from writing something…so why shouldn’t I?

So instead of the typical season preview that either does the impossible and predicts the outcomes or gives a roster analysis, I thought I would present a few themes that I intend to follow throughout the season.

A first will probably come as no surprise if you followed this blog last season: the role of the point guard.

I was talking to some folks the other day about how some people were claiming that last year in the NBA was the “Year of the Point Guard”, that point guards like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Rajon Rondo were emerging to dominate the league.

Then of course, when you look at this year’s NBA playoffs, of the four teams that made the semifinals, only one (Denver) had an established point guard (Mo Williams is solid but not quite “established” yet). So the point guard match-ups in the Finals are as follows: Derek Fisher, Tony Farmar, and Shannon Brown vs. Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson (still recovering from injury), and Anthony Johnson?

Does it look to you that point guards are the key to these teams? On the surface, not really…but that’s where I took the argument a bit further.

My whole point about the point guard is that it’s a position about decision making and goodness of fit. Successful teams don’t absolutely need a superstar point guard capable of completely dominating a game (e.g. Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups). They need a style of point guard that both defines and fits what they want to do.

The decision making framework becomes a particularly relevant point once you reach the second tier of point guards – does your point guard know when to push the ball and when to slow it down? Do they know when to drive or when to shoot? Do they know when to take the ball and swing it or reset the offense? Can they make an eff-ing entry pass?

All of these things sound super simple, right? Yeah, but some people simply don’t have it even though they have all the physical tools in the world.

What we have seen from the point guards playing in the Finals is solid decision making frm…even if that means pass to Kobe and clear. Derek Fisher’s style of play – as much as I despise him for his performance with and against the Warriors – is a great fit for the Lakers because he generally makes good decisions (as in limiting turnovers). Farmar is nice as a change of pace to pick up the tempo with the second unit, which has been extremely effective at times. Rafer Alston is perfect for the Magic because he can penetrate and find open shooters.

It seems likely that we will see a similar pattern in the WNBA this year – the best point guards in the league (Sue Bird & Lindsay Whalen) might be at home watching the conference finals. But I would argue that the point guard play of this year’s pre-season front-runner (the Sparks) will be huge.

And there will be a few teams whose playoff hopes might be riding on the play of a rookie point guard by the end of the season – there were three point guards taken in the first six picks of the draft and by the end of the season, all three could be starters.

So with that, my top five players and teams to watch as the season begins.

Top 5 Players to Watch

5. Lifelock’s Diana Taurasi: Always interesting to watch and will have quite a burden trying to get her team to the playoffs. Having Lauren Jackson would have been nice, but she showed last year that she can take a team to the brink of the playoffs almost by herself. When you look around at the Western Conference, it will be tough to make the playoffs…and if the Mercury want it, Taurasi will have to have an amazing season. I think she can do it.

4. Kristi Toliver, Renee Montgomery, and Briann January: All three of these point guards could be starting by mid-season depending on how the veterans around them play and how they fit into their respective systems. And I think following the progression of rookie point guards is fascinating. January has already been announced the starter of her team, Toliver has a good chance to challenge Chicago’s shooting guards filling the point guard spot, and Montgomery will have to work. But this will be interesting to watch – by the end of the season, who will be the best point guard in the 2009 draft?

3. Sylvia Fowles: the main storyline this season will probably be Lisa Leslie retiring and passing the torch to Candace Parker. But I see it slightly differently – the torch in terms of WNBA post play is being passed to Fowles. And she’s more than ready. The big question will be how the Sky use her. Last year, it just seemed like she was not incorporated into the offense very well. This year having demonstrated what she can do both in Europe and the Olympics, it seems unfathomable that she would not be the focal point of this team. No pressure, Coach Key.

2. Lindsay Whalen: This might seem like an odd pick, but she just seems like the eternal underdog. The GMs selected Sue Bird as the best point guard in the league in something of a landslide, which makes me wonder, what does Lindsay Whalen have to do to establish herself as the best? Well, winning a championship would be nice, but it seems unlikely this year. Some of their young players will have a year more under their belts though which could give Whalen more support so they don’t go through another 8 game slump like last year. But ultimately the Sun’s chances will boil down to Whalen. And if they do well, might she be anointed the top point guard in the league next year?

1. Candace Parker: Duh. That was easy. Coming back off her MVP season and off-season pregnancy, can she get her first championship?

Top 5 Teams to Watch

5. Diana Taurasi’s Lifelock (aka Phoenix Mercury): I love Diana Taurasi…and really, how can you not? She all about helping the children stay healthy and everything. But seriously – and no disrespect to Cappie Pondexter – the Mercury will live or die based on Taurasi’s performance this season. And if this Mercury team somehow gets to the playoffs – as 50% of WNBA GMs predicted – she is hands down the 2009 WNBA MVP. How 50% of GMs predicted the Mercury making the playoffs and only one predicted Taurasi winning the MVP is actually baffling to me.

4. New York Liberty: OK, ok… yes, I just really like Leilani Mitchel as a point guard. But that’s not really the point. The question for the Liberty is whether they can take that next step and return to the WNBA finals…which ultimately comes down to a question of whether they can take down Detroit.

3. Sacramento Monarchs: This is my dark horse team of the 2009 season. I’ve seen some people write this team off but as usual, this frontcourt is absolutely loaded. And when this team is clicking on all cylinders, they will be extremely difficult to stop. They have added Courtney Paris – who I think will be a force on the boards – and have a constantly improving Crystal Kelly to make up a potentially dominant frontcourt of the future. They have also added Hamchetou Maiga-Ba who should be able to just adds another veteran presence. This is a team with the capacity to challenge the top teams in the Western Conference while simultaneously having a bright future. And that’s always fascinating to watch. And I will never ever…evaevaevaevaeva count out Ticha Penicheiro…ok?

2. Chicago Sky: I just love the Sky. I love the combination of talent they have: two great post players, an outstanding all-around perimeter player in Jia Perkins, and Armintie Price who is just one of the league’s great personalities. Not that personalities win games…but it makes it even more fun to root for (or in the case of Kobe Bryant, against). I have gone on and on about them in the past, so I spare you here. But I’m really really interested in seeing how Kristi Toliver fits into this team. She could easily take the starting spot by mid-season.

1. LA Sparks: the Sparks have put together one of those fantasy teams that almost try to shape destiny by bringing together a group of players that just seems unstoppable…you know, if they all play the way they’re supposed to and actually come together to work as a team. It’s almost as with these squads are supposed to overwhelm you with star power before you even step on the court.

And as we saw last year with the Storm, this doesn’t always work…

In the NBA, the 2000 Portland Trailblazers and the 2004 LA Lakers immediately come to mind. Really, they had two different problems – the Blazers were just loaded top to bottom whereas the Lakers had four Hall of Famers and little depth. What’s interesting is that in this year’s WNBA just as in the NBA in 2004, it could be a gritty Detroit team that was assembled for a particular style of play that topples the fantasy team.

But in addition to trying to bring this talent and mold them into a team, there will be the additional adjustment once Candace Parker comes back to the team. So they will have to do a double adjustment this season…and that doesn’t sound easy in the WNBA’s short regular season. The key will be to see where they’re at near the end of the season. And you have to wonder how that will influence home court advantage in the Western Conference.

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Any Ideas On What Happened to the Sun?

I actually missed the Sun-Liberty game yesterday...but apparently I didn't miss much.

This description from Mike DiMauro of The Day makes the game seem horrific...

The Sun's loss to New York inside The Big Room on 33rd and 7th was well deserved. No team that treats the ball like a live explosive, especially 35 games into a season, should be leading a playoff series.

Their offense was disheveled. They did not honor basketball's No. 1 rule: treasure possession of the ball. There was enough one-on-one offense to qualify for the schoolyard. Terrible shots. Worse shots than that. Forced shots with the shot clock in single digits. Passes to nowhere. Not nearly enough ball movement.

You wonder how. How does a team that looked so good two weeks ago, a team Seattle coach Brian's Agler and San Antonio coach Dan Hughes raved about recently, look so putrid?

Ouch.

The thing is, this seems reminiscent of their losing streak earlier in the season when they just didn't seem to have it together.

For the sake of a competitive opening round series, I hope they get it together. For the sake of the Liberty's chances, I'm kinda hoping they remain stuck in first gear...

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The Value of Synergy: Connecticut’s Trust in Their System Makes Them a Contender

I honestly did not think the Connecticut Sun could beat the Storm without Lindsay Whalen.

Coach Mike Thibault has called Whalen the “engine” the runs the Sun. She’s an MVP candidate, the best point guard in the league, and the Sun’s second leading rebounder. It just seemed that Sue Bird would control the game even without Lauren Jackson and pull out a key road victory that would give them sole possession of first place in the Western Conference.

So how did the Sun win without Whalen?

The victory against Seattle demonstrates that while Whalen is a valuable player for the Sun, the Sun are not entirely dependent on Whalen to be successful. And it’s not just because they have Asjha Jones to fall back on. It’s clear from the way the team played in Whalen’s absence that their collective faith in their system is what has them at the top of the Eastern Conference right now.

Commentator Doris Burke compared the Sun to the NBA’s San Antonio Spurs – the entire organization has committed to a basketball philosophy and they only bring in players who they know will buy into that philosophy. So when one player is missing – even an MVP candidate – the system doesn’t fall apart. Someone will be there to fill in.

Jamie Carey’s performance yesterday in Whalen’s absence is a perfect example of how the Sun’s success is due to their system rather than individual talent.

Carey Filled in For Whalen Admirably

Carey does deserve a considerable amount of credit for the win – you normally hope that a back-up will just step in and not blow the game, especially when filling in for a player like Whalen. Carey did more than that – she ran the offense well, played excellent defense, and made great decisions with the ball (with the exception of a tough turnover late in the fourth that led to a fast break lay-up by Bird).

Of course Carey didn’t make the plays Whalen can – she had a pure point rating of -2.11 for the game, which is not indicative of an outstanding play maker. But even without Whalen’s play making – she had a pure point rating of 5.40 prior to the Olympic break – Connecticut managed to keep the ball moving and create shots within the offense.

An excellent example of this is their synergy score. From what I’ve tracked this season, a synergy score of below 70 is indicative of a team that is more focused on individual scoring, 70-80 is a fairly balanced effort (where most teams in the league fall), and above 80 is indicative of creating offense from outstanding ball movement.

Connecticut has a synergy score of 72.78 for the season, which is fourth in the league. Against Seattle yesterday, they had a synergy score of 85…without their lead ball handler. Part of that is explained by outstanding shooting – they shot 48.3% from the field for the game and a whopping 66.66% in the fourth quarter. But almost a third of those scoring opportunities came from assisted field goals and plays where players found themselves with good shots as a result of good ball movement.

When the entire team is moving the ball, all Carey has to do is initiate the offense and keep the ball moving. You sometimes notice the same thing with Whalen – she gets the ball moving and steps aside. While it sometimes appears that Whalen is simply being passive, I think we can say after watching the team get a win in her absence that she’s just relying on the system to do most of the work for the team.

Seattle’s “equal opportunity” offense

In contrast, Burke described Seattle's offense as an “equal opportunity” offense that depends on screens and individual play-making. And really, it’s a great offense when you have an all-star cast of players that are able to create scoring opportunities for themselves of screens and dribble drives.

Unfortunately, when one of those players is missing or having an off game, their absence is magnified. And there’s another problem that hurt them at the end of the first game against the Sun when they had Jackson – who takes the big shot at the end of the game?

The Sun went on a long 15-1 run in the 3rd quarter and it wasn’t just because they were hot or the Storm were playing terrible defense. The Storm were just getting good, but not great, scoring opportunities – they were taking a number of outside shots and a number of them were contested shots off the dribble, which are difficult.

Bird did as she needed to do taking on a bulk of the scoring load with 24 points and the team shot 45% overall, including 4 for 9 from the three point line. But when Bird went cold as she did for long stretches in the 2nd half, the entire team seemed to have trouble scoring.

Depth is what makes Connecticut’s system work

This is not to say that Connecticut’s system is better than Seattle’s – a large part of what makes the Sun's system work is their depth. Outside of their two major stars – Whalen and Asjha Jones – they have a number of solid, but not great players coming off the bench. And that includes newcomers Erin Phillips and Svetlana Abrosimova who combined for 10 points and 4 assists off the bench as well as Barbara Turner who contributed 4 rebounds.

Seattle doesn’t have quite the depth Connecticut has, so they have to rely on their stars to make things happen. But as the season has worn on and players are sore or out due to injury, it’s becoming a problem.

It’s not that Seattle has poor chemistry or that they’re a bad team, but I think they do demonstrate that just having a crew of all-stars and an offense predicated on individual performance is not necessarily the most reliable way to win basketball games. And that does seem to be the reason why Connecticut has beat them with and without Lauren Jackson.

“I thought we played a good game,” Storm coach Brian Agler said. “I thought we competed hard. We came in and had to rebound. We did that. We had to be efficient. We were. But keep in mind we played against an excellent basketball team.”

Connecticut is an excellent basketball team in the truest sense of the term and that ability to play together -- on both ends of the floor -- is what allows them to overcome the loss of one player.

Transition Points:

9/04 Update: I just saw an interesting piece on Eric Musselman's Basketball Notebook about the NBA that makes the comparison to the Spurs even more clear:

But while the Spurs are a somewhat different team with (Tim) Duncan on the bench, they have the same team identity and system. They can plug in a reserve and continue on, albeit at a lower level.

That's not the case when (Steve) Nash is out of the game for PHX. He gives the Suns their identity.

Again, you hate to say one style is better than the other because both teams are very successful...but when you get to the point of counting championship rings, it seems team structure might be generally preferable if the right personnel is available.

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Sue Bird Shows Off Her Point Guard Versatility in Lauren Jackson’s Absence

In a sense, Sue Bird and Lindsay Whalen -- easily the top two point guards in the WNBA -- make playing point guard look like more of an art form than an arbitrary positional classification.

On one hand, there are times when they can dominate a game by creating scoring opportunities for themselves, seemingly able to get to any spot on the court they want. But on the other hand, they might not score for long stretches, usually because they’re trying to get others involved or trying to establish the tempo of the game.

Either way, they usually seem to have complete control over the action, choosing their opportunities wisely and making the best decision for their team’s success. They are combo guards in the truest sense of the term – they are versatile enough to adjust their style to play the role of either facilitator or scorer depending on what their team needs.

Although both are versatile point guards, Sue Bird’s versatility will take on increased importance when the Storm face the Sun today. The Storm will be without reigning MVP and Defensive Player of the Year Lauren Jackson for the remainder of the season and if they want to keep their championship hopes alive, they’ll have to collectively make up for her lost production on both ends of the floor.

As the team’s second leading scorer, Bird has taken on the brunt of the scoring burden for the Storm. However, has the need to score changed the way Bird plays? She doesn’t seem to think so.

“I’m just taking what comes my way,” Bird says. “I don’t think I played any different tonight than I have all season. When the shots are there, you gotta take them. I’m just trying to stay aggressive.”

However, the statistics tell a different story – the need to score more has actually changed the way she’s playing point guard. The shift in style simultaneously says a lot about Bird’s versatility as a point guard and the importance of having a point guard that fits the combination of players in a team’s lineup.

So has Sue Bird changed her style of play?

The Storm played five games before taking the break for the Olympics without Jackson in addition to the one game against Houston on Thursday night when play resumed. I first wondered about whether Bird had changed because when I looked at their synergy score in the five games before the break.

The Storm’s synergy score had dropped to 64.19 during that five game period from 70.47 over the entire season. Since synergy is a measure of ball movement, a logical explanation for such a change would be the point guard’s play.

In the six total games that Jackson has missed, the biggest statistical change for Bird has been in her assists – she’s averaged about half as many assists (2.8) as she’s averaged for the season (5.4) in those six games. The reason might be that she has needed to take more shots in order for the Storm to win in Jackson’s absence – in their four wins she’s averaged 14.75 shots per game whereas she’s had 8 shots per game in their two losses.

But assists alone are not the best measure of a point guard. For that we have other metrics.

How Bird’s playing style has shifted

I’ve found that the best single measure of point guard quality is John Hollinger’s pure point rating. The formula essentially measures the true value of each assist (2/3) minus turnovers per minute, in other words evaluating how productive a point guard is per minute by looking at their net value to the team as a play-maker.

Although Bird has scored more during this stretch of six games, her pure point rating has dropped considerably indicating that she has been less of a playmaker. For the season as a whole, her pure point rating is 2.61. In the last five games in which Jackson has been out, Bird’s PPR has been -3.96 meaning that she’s not spending as much of her court time distributing the ball and making her team better.

But another statistic created by Hollinger is perhaps more telling. Assist ratio is an opportunity rate measuring how often a player gets an assist when they touch the ball. For the season, Bird’s assist ratio was 25.57, which is above average for point guards. In the last five games during Jackson’s absence, her assist ratio has been 14.09, which is well below average for point guards.

However, a low assist ratio doesn’t mean a player is bad – all-star caliber guards like Jia Perkins (14.87) and Diana Taurasi (13.96) are in about the same ball park and they are clearly not bad players. What it does say is that Bird has transitioned from a combo guard who balances passing and scoring to a scoring guard who is passing much less.

And as it turns out, assist ratio tells us a lot about the type of point guard a player is according to the Sparks Playing Styles spectrum. From that player styles spectrum, we can derive five types of point guards: initiator, distributor, pure facilitator, scorer, and combo guards (for descriptions of each click here).

Players with high assist ratios tend to fall in what I have called the pure distributor end of the spectrum (e.g. Leilani Mitchell and Shannon Johnson) whereas players with low assist ratios tend to be what I call scoring guards.

Players across the spectrum can have all the skills of a traditional play-maker, but the mark of a great player (under a good coach) is the ability to play to her strengths while providing what the team needs. And fundamentally, that's a matter of decision making -- if you’re a good scorer, sometimes the best decision is to shoot.

Right now Sue Bird is playing more like a scoring guard because that is what her team needs. That’s not a bad thing at all and, in fact, it appears to be the best decision for her team -- in games that she's shooting more without Jackson, they're winning. But it's clear that has an effect on their team dynamics -- as a team there appears to be considerably less ball movement and they're turning the ball over more often (21.11% of possessions vs. 18.30%) with Bird operating as more of a scorer.

Where this will be even more interesting to watch in the playoffs. How sustainable is this adjusted style of play against the league's top competition? Can Bird carry the team to realize their championship expectations without Jackson?

What does this mean for the Storm’s chances against the Sun?

For true fans of basketball, it doesn’t get much better than watching Bird and Whalen run their teams (update: unfortunately, it looks like Whalen will be out due to an ankle injury). They both exemplify the new breed of combo guard and have the ability to take over a game just by taking what the other team gives them, scoring or not. As Diana Taurasi has said, that’s what makes Bird so great.

“She's one of the few players in this league that can go the whole game without taking a shot and affect the game more than anyone else. That's why she's the best point guard in the league, hands down.”

But in the last game against the Sun that became a problem. Bird deferred to her teammates so much in a tight fourth quarter that she almost disappeared – she didn’t shoot, get an assist, or set the table for someone else to make a play. In fact, it looked like everyone was just waiting for on their stars to step up.

So the more aggressive Bird might be a huge asset to the Storm, even without Jackson. In the last game they needed someone to assert themselves in critical moments. Since the ball will be in Bird’s hands most of the time anyway, it is to the benefit of the team that she make the decision to step up and take control of the game when appropriate.

However, the Sun might have too much for them – they beat the Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream by 26 points each in back-to-back games on Thursday and Friday. Plus they added Erin Phillips and Svetlana Abrosimova, who played on the Australian and Russian Olympic teams respectively. Both add additional scoring punch and defense.

Seattle has a chance to win if they can play the type of defense that they apparently played Thursday night against the Houston Comets. But let’s be honest – the Sun are playing some of the best basketball in the league right now whereas Houston was missing a key player.

Given that the Sun beat the Storm in Seattle with Lauren Jackson earlier in the season, it seems like the Sun have an edge in this game, as they are playing extremely well and have added firepower.

Edge: Sun (if Whalen plays), Storm (if Whalen is out).

Transition Points:

The Sun are definitely a team to watch: The Sun were one of my five teams to watch after the break, but I never imagined them to play this well. From Tamika Whitmore via WNBA.com, ""We're sending a message to people that it's time to get down to business,'' Whitmore said. "We just have to keep it rolling."

The importance of offensive rebounding: it’s also worth noting that the Storm were missing Yolanda Griffith -- the team’s leading offensive rebounder – in their first game. Might a few extra offensive rebounds help them against the Sun this time around?

Whalen for MVP: Other players attract more media attention, but Lindsay Whalen is a clear candidate for the WNBA's Most Valuable Player award, as described by Matt Stout. If she's able to lead the Sun to the best record in the East, it will be difficult to make an argument against her.

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Top Five Teams to Watch After the Break: What Does It Take to Turn a Team Around?

Although having a month-long break might be tough for us fans, it’s a great opportunity for players to rest and teams to fix some things before continuing a tight playoff race.

So what makes “Welcome Back Week” particularly exciting to me is getting to see how teams come out and play after having some time to practice. With trades, injuries, and players arriving late to the pre-season, it seemed like every team had something to work on heading into the break.

One team that I’ll be paying closer attention to after the break is the Washington Mystics. After a disappointing first half of the season, the break gave them a chance for a fresh start. And Team President Sheila Johnson called for a “new era of accountability” after they traded Taj McWilliams-Franklin in an effort to begin rebuilding. The question is whether that new era will begin with a playoff berth or another trip to the draft lottery.

Either way, someone sent me an email that triggered a bigger question: what does it take to turn a struggling team like the Mystics around? And how does a struggling star on a struggling team (e.g. Alana Beard) fit into that revamped “big picture”? Is a player like Beard better off being traded in order to return to top form?

As it turns out, I found a tentative answer just by revisiting my “team dynamics” ratings…and it appears that the problem might have less to do with Beard than with the composition of the team around her.

The issue of team composition and “chemistry” is something I’ve been interested in all season and the Olympic break gave me some time to play with those team dynamics numbers and tweak a few things. Ultimately, I think I found a few ways to make the numbers more useful for future analysis and I’ve shared that in another post.

Anyway, as I looked at the numbers for the Mystics, I found a few other teams that will be interesting to watch as the season resumes. So here’s a look at those new numbers and the top five teams to keep an eye on as the season resumes.

The Numbers:

As I said previously, the in-depth explanation for these numbers is in another post, but here are team dynamics numbers for each team as of the last game before the break.

The offensive and defensive dynamics are simply the synergy, offensive rebounding rate, turnover rate, and free throw rate numbers added up for the team (offense) and their opponent (defense). The differential is pretty much the same thing I do in my game analyses – the difference between their numbers and their opponents’ numbers.

The team with the highest differential between their offensive and defensive numbers is first with the lowest differential last.

Team Dynamics
Team	Offensive	Defensive	Differential
Seattle	109.47	100.65	+8.82
Connecticut	110.26	101.97	+8.29
San Antonio	108.71	100.45	+8.26
Los Angeles	109.23	101.48	+7.76
Detroit	110.52	105.53	+4.99
Chicago	110.46	106.58	+3.88
New York	106.71	103.51	+3.15
Sacramento	108.12	105.85	+2.27
Houston	108.02	106.81	+1.21
Minnesota	112.56	111.42	+1.14
Indiana	95.81	99.57	-3.75
Washington	98.10	105.40	-7.30
Phoenix	110.04	120.91	-10.87
Atlanta	98.11	124.16	-26.06

The numbers are not an exact reflection of the standings, but actually come pretty close with the exception of one or two teams. Where they are really helpful is describing a team’s level of cohesion and identifying areas that are hurting them.

So with that, on to the top 5 teams to watch…

5. Will the Mystics be able to turn things around?

So back to the question posed to me via email, the question with the Mystics is whether these trades and extra time for Kenlaw will help them win games. And without doing another player comparison, it’s safe to say that this will not improve them much in the short-term – if they want to make the playoffs, they’ll probably have to depend on Indiana losing a few games.

But what about Alana Beard? Can she step her game up in the last few games? Unfortunately, when you compare her 2006 success to this season, there’s a major difference – synergy.

I like to use synergy as a proxy for ball movement and whereas the Mystics had a high synergy score of 76.64 in 2006 (which, by the way, is better than San Antonio’s this season), so far in 2008 their synergy score is only 69.42, just below league average.

The way that may have affected Beard is that she is taking as many shots, but at a lower percentage. In addition, her assists are up which means she is probably just stretched too thin this year trying to play the roles of playmaker and scorer on a team with a stagnant offense. So it looks like that instead of moving the ball to find good shots within a system, Beard is forcing bad shots because her team isn’t move the ball as well.And part of that is the loss of Nikki Teasley.

In 2006, Nikki Teasley led the WNBA in assists per game with 5.4 and in addition had a Pure Point Rating (PPR) of 4.61, which is high for a WNBA point guard. And off the bench, Nikki Blue didn’t get quite as many minutes per game, but had a PPR of 3.31. They both had assist ratios – the percentage of baskets they assisted while on the floor – of 30%.

In contrast, from what I’ve seen this year, Blue is now the starting point guard and Beard has also assumed some playmaking responsibilities. And this season Blue has a PPR of 1.6…and nobody else on the roster even has a positive PPR.

So part of Beard’s – and the team’s -- success could probably be attributed to having two point guards around who could distribute the ball well. Shay Murphy and Tasha Humphrey are simply unlikely to help with that.

So with all that, why am I excited to see what they do after the break? Well, the game after Kenlaw took over – a blowout against the Storm – they turned into a very up-tempo team, which favors the players they have. If they cannot be efficient moving the ball in the half court, then perhaps they can try to get baskets off of fast breaks or early offense.

From watching Humphrey in Detroit, she has the skills to excel in an uptempo game because she’s such a versatile player, even able to lead the break at times. Beard might have to continue being a playmaker rather than a scorer, but in terms of the team’s success it will be interesting to see if they can improve.

4. Will the Sun’s changes help them stay in first place?

The Sun have been one of the hardest teams to figure out this season. They’ve had a five game win streak and then eventually fell into a five game losing streak before starting a three game winning streak before the break.

As a result of having a number of inexperienced players, coach Mike Thibault has made a number of changes to the lineup in search of the right combination. And now after the break, we should see even more changes to their rotation.

First, as a team with four rookies in the rotation, you have to figure the extra practice time will help them work out anything they needed to improve. Second, Erin Phillips returns to the team after being out for almost two seasons due to injury and preparing for the Olympics. Mike Thibault commented on how they plan to use Phillips during the league’s Welcome Back conference call:

“As far as Erin Phillips, she got here today on about three hours of sleep, but I think by playoff time she can be a big part of what we do. She can play both the 1 and 2. We can play her with Lindsay. She’s an above average defender and her offense has improved greatly since she was here before. It remains to be seen. I like the players we have here but she has a little more experience and she is a strong, physical player and hopefully that can help us.”

Third, the Sun have signed Svetlana Abrosimova and waived Jolene Anderson. This is an interesting move to make right before resuming play because it will likely be difficult to integrate Abrosimova into the rotation so quickly. But also, Anderson was a contributor, even starting 7 games over a period when the team won 7 of 8 games in late May/early June.

So how do we make sense of all of this? Well, part of the reason why Anderson lost her spot in the starting lineup was poor shooting and inexperience. Abrosimova and Phillips bring a little bit of both, particularly from the three point line. Phillips was a decent shooter in her rookie year shooting 34% and Abrosimova was an outstanding shooter last year shooting 44.6%, which was fifth in the WNBA.

The Sun were at the bottom of the league in three point shooting before the break and the way that caused problems for them is that it made it hard for them to spread the court. If you watched the Sun while Barbara Turner was playing well at the beginning of the season, her shooting allowed the team to spread the floor, which made it easier for Lindsay Whalen to drive and create opportunities for others. Now they have two players to spread the floor, which will make it easier for Whalen to drive.

In addition, with more opportunities to drive to the basket the Sun should get more free throw opportunities, which are important to winning games. They were near the bottom of the league in FTM/FGA before the break, which is really indicative of two things for the Sun: they are about average in free throw attempts per game and near the bottom in the league in free throw percentage.

Even with Detroit adding Taj McWilliams-Franklin, if Abrosimova and Phillips can contribute right away, the Sun could stay in first because those two give them things that they need – the ability to spread the court and take some of the scoring load off of Whalen. If they can extend the winning streak they started before the break, the argument for Whalen to win the MVP should be even stronger.

3. Can the Sky make the playoffs with the return of Sylvia Fowles?

Early in the season, I declared the Sky as my favorite team in the league. Then just like a fair-weather punk, I abandoned them once they lost Sylvia Fowles to injury. Well, after watching Jia Perkins and KB Sharp step up at the point guard position in Canty’s absence, I’m ready to move back toward the Sky.

This is no disrespect to the Liberty, who I've also proclaimed as a favorite, but the Sky have such a promising future…if they can figure out how to put all the young pieces together.

Although some Sky fans might want to see them tank instead of making a run for the playoffs, wouldn’t it be a great story for the league if Sylvia Fowles returned from an outstanding Olympic performance to lead her team to an improbably playoff run? I think so. Wouldn’t it be great if we could start a semi-legitimate argument about who will be the more valuable player in five years between Parker and Fowles? And who wouldn’t want to see more Armintie Price videos? And I haven’t even mentioned Candice Dupree…

This team is extremely talented and well-rounded, especially with Perkins and Sharp playing well at the point guard. They don’t necessarily even need another lottery pick – they need experience playing together and a nine game run for the playoffs will get them some experience playing meaningful games as a unit.

But what I find fascinating in looking at their team dynamics is that they might be better than their 8-17 record suggests. Although they’re below average defensively, they are third in terms of their offensive cohesion. And in fact, they’re above average in every single category that I’m using to measure team dynamics. So what’s they’re problem?

The Sky are second to last in field goal attempts per game – they’re not squandering possessions, they protect the ball well, they shoot it well, but they just don’t get shots. And if you neither take that many shots nor stop the opponents from taking and making shots, then you’re in trouble.

In other words, the Sky play very safe basketball normally – not turning the ball over, not taking many shots, and not aggressively forcing turnovers on defense. We know that Fowles’s mere presence will have an impact on defense. But now that we know for sure what Fowles can do on offense, will the Sky finally try to generate more offense by giving the ball to her more often for high percentage shots in the post? Will Perkins continue her stellar play at point guard? And with Perkins on the ball and Fowles taking more shots, will Candice Dupree become a more productive player?

All of those questions depend on team strategy. And honestly, they cannot afford to continue the same strategy that involves not shooting the ball.

2. Will the Mercury ever wake up?

Honestly, this is just a personal issue that I need to work out – I just don’t want to believe the Mercury are the worst team in the Western Conference. And I don’t think that’s an entirely arbitrary opinion either.

For the Mercury, it all comes down to their Rover defense. When they keep their defensive intensity high – which means pressuring ball handlers before they get to the three point line -- they’ve proven they can play with anyone in the league. And we know that they can score more than anyone else.

But the reason why I think they’re a team to watch is because their success or failure depends almost entirely on one player on both ends of the floor – Diana Taurasi.

Taurasi is responsible for putting the pressure on opposing ball handlers. And Taurasi is definitely the leader of that team’s offense. And I don’t believe that Diana Taurasi will come back from the Olympics unmotivated.

It might be unrealistic for the Mercury to make the playoffs, especially with both Penny Taylor and Tangela Smith missing. But you can be almost certain that it will be exciting to watch Taurasi fight to get there.

The key for the Mercury is keeping their synergy high and that doesn’t necessarily mean good ball movement for them – part of their style is to take quick shots on the break which limits their number of assists. But when they take high percentage shots and move the ball at moments that they can’t find a good shot on the break, they are a dangerous team.

And there is reason for hope for them to make the playoffs – they are only three games behind Sacramento but the teams ahead of them also have injuries to key players. Sacramento is without Rebekkah Brunson and Houston is without Hamchétou Maïga-Ba. And I haven’t heard much about Candice Wiggins on Minnesota, but she was injured before the break.

The Mercury play the Minnesota twice as well as Houston and Sacramento once each, so they’ll have a chance to improve their own position. But to me, everything is riding on Taurasi and that Rover defense.

1. Can the Los Angeles Sparks finally bring it all together?

Usually after watching a team a few times, it’s possible to get at least a surface level understanding of what a team does well and what they can improve upon.

I haven’t found any reliable way to figure out the Sparks or their game strategy thus far this season. And their complete unpredictability is what makes them so exciting to watch.

Coming back from the Olympics with Candace Parker and Lisa Leslie looking to cap off milestone seasons, I would expect them to play better than before. With their big three having time at the Olympics to work closely with one another and Parker getting a chance to learn from other league veterans, I expect them to come back fired up.

But as people have noted all season, their success during the final stretch of the season will depend almost entirely on their point guards’ ability to get the team into the offense and keep the ball moving. They don’t have point guards who can singlehandedly breakdown a defense, but there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be able to bring the ball down the court quickly and get the ball to Parker or Leslie to initiate a high-low offense.

The addition of Margo Dydek is also interesting and I wonder if they plan to use her in the high-low scheme as well to keep the pressure on for the entire game. It would make them difficult, if not impossible, to defend and take some pressure off their point guards to create scoring opportunities, which is not their strong point.

The key for them is not so much point guard play as it is keeping turnovers down. And if you watch closely, their turnovers are a team-wide problem, perhaps indicative of not having outstanding point guards. Their top three players in turnovers – Parker, Leslie, and DeLisha Milton-Jones…the same three players who are expected to make plays for them most often.

Their turnover differential is the worst in the league and they will have to improve that if they want to earn home court advantage in the playoffs. They also have an opportunity to move up in the standings because they are only three games behind Seattle, which is missing Lauren Jackson…and they play them once on the last day of the season in what could be a game with huge playoff implications.

OK… enough talk… I’m just waiting for the games to begin now…

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Point Guard Play of Perkins & Sharp Help Deal the Sun a Discouraging loss

You could say that both the Sky and Sun made necessary changes to their starting lineup prior to Chicago’s 73-65 victory last night.

The Sky have lost starting point guard Dominique Canty at least until after the Olympic break and possibly for the season.

The Sun…well…something had to change for them so coach Mike Thibault chose to move Lindsay Whalen over to the shooting guard spot and go with Ketia Swanier as the point guard. However, the Sun never able to sustain a rhythm and played an uncharacteristically sloppy game.

The Sun commentators suggested taking the positive out of the second half – the Sun turned up the defensive intensity and managed to erase a 15-point deficit and make it a close game in the 4th quarter. However, a deeper at the game reveals that the Sun didn’t really get within striking distance until Perkins and Sharp left the game with small injuries midway through the 3rd quarter.

Although Perkins and Sharp had a major impact on last night’s game, it’s hard to say whether they are more effective than Canty. But from what I’ve seen of Chicago this season, the team looked much more fluid without Canty running the point as Perkins and Sharp made excellent decisions. They were able to limit mistakes and make enough point guard plays to lead their team to a win – the Sky had 0 turnovers as a team in the second quarter.

So in evaluating the backcourt adjustments of each team, I’d have to say that while the play of Chicago’s point guards was quite encouraging, the Sun’s entire offense was rather discouraging. While there are statistics to back that up, I think close observation of the point guards may tell the story well.

What on earth is wrong with the Sun?

The Sun started out the season on fire and had a number of commentators surprised about their success. Well, it looks like the nay-sayers may have been right – maybe they were playing a bit over their heads.

I’ve been wondering for some time about why exactly the Sun were struggling to such an extent. Barbara Turner has may embody the team’s recent struggles best. She started out the season apparently playing the best basketball of her career and then plummeted back down to earth and has subsequently been demoted from the starting lineup. Unfortunately, they still haven’t been able to replace Turner’s early-season production in their lineup…and it’s really hurt them as they’ve dropped 6 of the last 7 games.

Swanier was not effective as a starter offensively, though she did come up with some outstanding defensive plays in the second half. Whalen was non-existent but part of that was because the rest of the team has been so ineffective the last two games that Whalen is forced to take on the offensive burden almost entirely by herself. That’s a massive shift from the beginning of the season when they were winning on the strength of their ball movement. Perhaps looking at the lineup combinations with Turner and Swanier will provide some insight.

The Sun have done quite a bit of tinkering with their lineup this season -- this was Swanier's third start although she's also racked up a few DNPs. But when the Sun won 7 of 8 games in late May/early June, it was actually Jolene Anderson in the starting lineup.

So maybe a look at the playing styles combinations with Anderson (early season) and Swanier (last night) will be helpful:

Conn w/Anderson: Whalen (utility combo guard), Anderson (interior scorer), Holt (mixed), Jones (interior scorer), Whitmore (interior scorer)

Conn w/Swanier: Whalen (utility combo guard), Swanier (utility combo), Holt (mixed), Jones (interior scorer), Whitmore (interior scorer)

Anderson gets an interior scorer label because she is one of the top guards in rebounds per 40 minutes (#12). The problem is that her shooting percentages are rather low, which is probably why she was demoted.

Meanwhile, the Sun have lost all three games that Swanier has started (2 against Mercury, 1 against Sky). While the Swanier lineup appears to be more balanced, the Anderson lineup is more productive, especially on the rebounding front. As one of the league's top rebounding teams, it doesn't seem to make much sense to have a better rebounder in the lineup.

But the key seems to be that in games the Sun have won, Anderson is more productive than her average across the board -- shooting 40% from the three point line. That capacity to stretch the defense makes a huge difference for a team that is otherwise composed of tough interior players. The same goes for Turner -- in Sun wins, she has shot 43% this season. With neither of them shooting well and both having the impact of "interior" players, they can't stretch the defense and find a rhythm.

However what really stood out in watching last night's game -- especially in the first half – was their complete inability to defend Perkins and Sharp on the perimeter. That is likely due in part to Turner’s absence. But the Sky were getting to the rim almost at will and scoring easy points in the first half. Their second quarter performance in particular helps tell that story.

In the second quarter, the Sky had a true shooting percentage of 73.7% and 0 turnovers. Even though the Sun had an offensive rebounding rate of 63% during the quarter, the Sky were playing such efficient basketball that it was a moot point. The Sun just weren’t able to do much to stop the Sky.

As the commentators pointed out, they did perform better in the third quarter. They slowed down the Sky’s offense with much better pressure on the perimeter, and limited the Sky’s scoring opportunities. Even then the Sky were up 12 points when Sharp left the game. The Sun went up 2 points, but when Perkins and Sharp came back in the game, the Sky found their rhythm again and as we now know, took the game by 8. That’s a huge effect for two players.

So what did Perkins and Sharp do so well?

A two-pronged point guard attack kept the defense off balance…

The Sky were extremely reliant on their jump shooters early in the season, despite having Sylvia Fowles available in the post. Part of the problem was that their guards seemed to get so little penetration into the middle of the defense. So the Sky made themselves really easy to defend.

The difference in last night’s game – and the 2nd half of the Detroit loss this past Wednesday – is that Perkins and Sharp were aggressively attacking the basket and finding open shooters. With two players looking to initiate the offense and score, the defense is not able to focus on one point of attack and therefore is limited in the amount of risks they can take as a team.

That also opened up opportunities for Candice Dupree to get more involved in the offense with easy shots. In fact, they often opened opportunities for each other – they found each other on consecutive plays just before Perkins left the game due to injury.

This type of movement on offense is something that I didn’t see as much of when Canty was running the point. And when they don’t get penetration, Dupree starts to force contested jump shots because she is the team’s best offensive option. The major difference is that while Canty comes down the court and keeps the ball for a number of seconds or looks for her own shot, Perkins and Sharp have gotten the team into the offense extremely well over the past five quarters. But in looking at the early season lineups, there has been an additional change that I had forgotten about:

Early season: Canty (distributor), Perkins (perimeter scorer), Price (perimeter utility player), Dupree (interior scorer), Melvin (post presence)

Current: Sharp (distributor), Perkins (perimeter scorer), Wyckoff (utility player), Dupree (interior scorer), Melvin (post presence)

Again, the playing styles tell general statistical tendencies, but they require some additional interpretation. What the utility label indicates is that the player tends to shoot less than assist, steal, rebound or block shots. As a perimeter utility player, Price also picks up a number of steals.

But what's left out is the three point shooting story. Wyckoff is shooting 50% from the three point line in Sky wins. Price has yet to make a three this season. With or without Canty, Wyckoff is a huge asset for the team because she further spreads the court for Dupree to score inside (and I would also argue that Wyckoff is a better passer).

However, I have to return to the fact that it seems like Canty penetrates a lot less than Sharp and Perkins have over the last 5 quarters, stretching back to the Detroit game. When Sharp can drive and have the option of passing to two three point shooters (Perkins or Wyckoff) or finding Dupree on the wing, that puts a ton of pressure on the defense to defend multiple options. It was the same when Perkins drove to the basket as Sharp was 2-3 from the three point line last night.

Chicago is not going to be a great rebounding team, especially without Fowles, so it is essential that they play more efficient and energetic basketball than their opponents. Over the last five quarters they have done that and if they’re able to keep that up they’ll be a very effective team once Fowles returns to the lineup.

Being a good point guard is not about assists, but decision making

I suppose I’ve made this point multiple times, but being a good point guard is about making the right decisions to sustain the team’s rhythm, not just racking up assists. The Sky kept the ball moving and didn’t commit a lot of egregious errors, as you might expect from “replacement” lead guards. Anytime you can get through a quarter without turnovers, the point guards are doing something right (or the defense is weak). They picked their opportunities to score well so as not to disrupt the team’s rhythm with bad shots. Wyckoff effectively stretched the defense to create room for scoring opportunities. Overall, there was a lot to be encouraged by for the Sky.

It’s difficult to identify one or two key things that the Sun need to do better. But based on what they’ve displayed in this game, they need to defend the perimeter more effectively to stop penetration and they need to find a way to get more easy scoring opportunities. There were a few points when it looked like they could establish an effective high-low offense with Whitmore and Gruda, but they weren’t able to get that going consistently. With Turner’s production falling off, it might be worthwhile to get Gruda involved in the offense with that type of high low strategy.

Transition Points:

The plus/minus numbers also help tell the story of the impact of Perkins and Sharp. Perkins recorded a +13 while Sharp was +15. They were a combined 10-19 from the field and 3-6 from the three point line. Overall, very efficient play.

Armintie Price really needs to find her stroke from the free throw line. In the last 5 games, she’s 5 for 21. That’s bad by anyone’s standard, but it’s especially bad for her – her greatest asset is her ability to drive to the basket and get easy baskets. If she can’t hit her free throws, she’s not nearly as valuable an asset offensively because she’s essentially wasting possessions. She has all the talent needed to become a star but she has to hit her free throws.

Quianna Chaney had a career-high 10 points in some very effective minutes against the Sun. Apparently, that’s a far too regular experience for Sun opponents – the Sun have given up “9 or 10” career high games to opponents this season, according to the commentators. I wonder how many of them were perimeter players…

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Impressive Defense In An Inspiring Week of WNBA Basketball

I was a bit NBA draft obsessed this past week so I watched less WNBA games…and I missed quite a week…

During the NBA draft was the triple overtime thriller between the Liberty and Fever. Overtime heroics from Tina Thompson who hit a game winning shot against the Silver Stars with a broken finger. The Sun and Shock split in their home-and-home series for first place. The Dream pushed a weary Sun team to overtime in search of their first win. And lest we forget, Candace Parker had those two dunks.

Toss in Pam McGee’s son getting drafted, and I think maybe you have a candidate for one of the most exciting WNBA weeks ever…? Not a bad follow up to last weekend which included outstanding performances by Deanna Nolan and Candice Wiggins last weekend.This was the kind of week of basketball I love to see as a fan: competitive, high quality basketball with a touch of drama.

I did get to see the back to back Shock and Sun games and that was some of the best WNBA basketball I’ve seen. Why? Although each game was pretty much one-sided, it featured some of the best team defense I’ve ever seen.

Defense is not the most exciting thing to watch, it might not even win championships, but since we so rarely see a team play a full game of intense defense I thought these games were worth a second look. And right now, I think the edge goes to the Shock in the Eastern Conference.

It’s sort of funny that I happened to catch a re-run of a certain cartoon that criticized the WNBA for being a slower version of basketball with minor talent...on a night on which such great basketball was played. Defensive basketball can sometimes come off as slow and boring, but it was hard not to appreciate the defensive intensity that the Sun and Shock displayed this week.

Game 1: Detroit at Connecticut

The X’s and O’s of Basketball covered the defensive schemes of the first game pretty well. Here’s a summary:

There wasn't one thing specifically, but I put together a few plays which showed what a good M2M defensive team looks like. They got their hands into the passing lanes to deflect and steal lazy passes, they had great help-side defense to stop penetration, and finally I liked the way they played tough against the Shock by bumping Katie Smith and making her work for her points.

So I was interested to see two things in the second game: 1) whether the Sun could bring the intensity a second time and 2) what adjustments the Shock would make.

Game 2: Connecticut at Detroit

What was amazing about the second game is that the Sun actually managed to bring the same defensive intensity in the second game, especially the denial defense. Barbara Turner was practically flying into the passing lanes on some plays, putting on a ton of pressure when she wasn’t getting her hand on the ball. They made smart double teams by waiting until post players dribbled the ball to bring the second player. Their defensive pressure triggered a number of fast breaks.

The big difference in this game was that the Shock responded well to the defense. They made two huge runs -- a 17-2 run that began at the end of the first quarter and an 11-1 run in the third quarter – that the Sun never recovered from. That was only worsened by the fact that the Sun also shot themselves out of the game in the first half going 1 for 8 from the three point line.

So what did the Shock do differently?

The main thing was that they got into attack mode early and just never let up. That was made by possible by much improved ball movement, which kept Connecticut’s defense off balance.

The Shock’s intensity extended to the defensive end. Commentator Matt Sheppard described it best as a swarmihttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifng defense. Although Tom Thibault said the Sun dug themselves a hole offensively, he should have credited the Shock defense with digging that hole. Connecticut got to a point where they were taking the best shots available.

But what impressed me most was the way Detroit attacked Connecticut’s defense with outstanding ball movement. It was an excellent demonstration of how to beat a strong man to man defense.

First, rather than panicking when Connecticut brought pressure, they were extremely patient. Second, people did an excellent job of moving without the ball to get open so the ball could keep moving. When they got the ball into the post, Connecticut often had trouble stopping them.

But what enabled that was outstanding guard play by Deanna Nolan and Katie Smith.
They are an amazing backcourt combination who are able to distribute the ball well, find their own scoring opportunities, and manage the tempo. When Cheryl Ford, Alexis Hornbuckle, or Tasha Humphrey are playing well too, this team is nearly impossible to stop. So when they’re moving the ball around against a man to man defense, it’s difficult to defend because almost every player is a threat to score. As a testament to their offensive balance, five players scored in double figures against the Sun.

There was one play in particular at the end of the first half where Deanna Nolan was double teamed on at the top of the key, back dribbled out of the double team to get the defender off balance, and used a crossover to get by the defender to the basket. That’s something I rarely see at any level of basketball. And she did it so smoothly that it seemed unspectacular.

Edge: Detroit

A team with two intelligent combo guards on the court, strong post play, and good defense is going to be difficult to beat. The Sun are good, but extremely dependent on Lindsay Whalen to win. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – Whalen is an amazing player capable of carrying a team. They win based on effort, great coaching and outstanding team basketball. But stopping the Sun is predicated primarily on keying in on Whalen and Detroit did that well.

Over the long haul, especially in the playoffs, it will just be much easier for Detroit to adjust to what teams throw at them because their team is so balanced on both sides of the floor. They’re extremely difficult to plan for and what I think they showed this week is that when they bring their maximum intensity to the game, there’s nothing an opponent can do to stop them.

Transition Points

• Back in the day, some professional games would be shown on tape delay. The WNBA needs to start thinking seriously about showing ESPN games on web delay. The NBA draft is equivalent to Christmas Day for me (makin a list, checking it 100 times…) so I didn’t catch the Liberty triple overtime thriller (and my DVR stopped recording at the end of regulation). It would have been nice to have such an exciting game available online so that I could see some of the most exciting play the league has to offer.
• Again, if CNN can be convinced to have footage of their broadcasts posted on YouTube, there has got to be a way to convince ESPN to allow an online archive of games like that for the good of the WNBA (and their future ratings). It’s an agreement that works out for everyone – fans see the great games they missed, the WNBA showcases their best, ESPN gives people a reason to make it a priority to watch the network broadcast the first time in the future.
• I realize that there are barriers to using the web more effectively, but as the Women’s Hoop blog highlights, there are some little things that would be relatively simple to accomplish.

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